COVER
ECE/TIM/DP/10
GENEVA TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS
ETTS V WORKING PAPER




TABLE OF CONTENTS

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Timber Section,
Geneva, Switzerland


EUROPEAN FORESTS AND TIMBER:
SCENARIOS INTO THE 21ST CENTURY
(CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION, TRADE, RECYCLING AND ENERGY)

by

Timber Section
UN/ECE Trade Division

UNITED NATIONS
New York and Geneva, 1996

ABSTRACT

This Working Paper contains the base scenarios of ETTS V, by country and country group, as well as the alternative scenarios, by country group, and the scenarios for consumption of energy from wood. It also contains a brief explanation of the consistency analysis model used to prepare these scenarios.


ECE/TIM/DP/10



UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION
Sales No. GV.E.96.0.38
ISBN 92-1-100736-4


ETTS V WORKING PAPERS

This is one of a series of papers to accompany the fifth study of European timber trends and prospects (ETTS V), issued in August 1996 with the reference ECE/TIM/SP/11. The ETTS V Working papers contain material which is too technical, too detailed or too voluminous for inclusion in the main study, such as results and projections by country or methodological discussions. Readers are referred to ETTS V itself for an explanation of the main principles and outline of the study.

Further information about ETTS V and other documentation is available on request from the ETTS V coordinator:

Mr. C. Prins
Chief Timber Section
UN/ECE Trade Division
Palais des Nations
CH 1211 Geneva 10
Telephone: +4122 917 2874
Fax: + 41 22 917 0041
E-mail: [email protected]

UN-ECE/FAO TIMBER AND FOREST DISCUSSION PAPERS
The objective of the Discussion Papers is to make available to a wider audience work carried out, usually by national experts, in the course of ECE/FAO activities. They do not represent the final official output of the activity (which is normally issued as a UN-ECE/FAO Timber and Forest Study Paper), but a contribution which because of its subject matter, or quality, or for other reasons, deserves to be disseminated more widely than the restricted official circles from whose work it emerged, or which is not suitable (e.g. because of technical content, narrow focus, specialised audience) for distribution as a Study Paper.
In all cases, the author(s) of the discussion paper are identified, and the paper is their responsibility. The ECE Timber Committee, the FAO European Forestry Commission, the governments of the authors' country and the FAO/ECE secretariat, are in no way responsible for the opinions expressed and the facts presented in the discussion paper.
In the interests of economy, Discussion Papers are issued in the original language only. They are available on request from the secretariat. They are distributed automatically to nominated forestry libraries and information centres in member countries. Those interested in receiving these Discussion Papers on a continuing basis should contact the secretariat.
Another objective of the Discussion Papers is to stimulate dialogue and contacts among specialists. Comments or questions should be sent to the secretariat, who will transmit them to the authors.

Hyperlinks to non-FAO Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-FAO sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.

EUROPEAN FORESTS AND TIMBER:
SCENARIOS INTO THE 21ST CENTURY
(consumption, production, trade, recycling and energy)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

The consistency analysis model

Alternative scenarios

Scenarios for consumption of wood for energy

Country groups

BASE SCENARIOS

Albania
Austria
Belgium
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Malta
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
Yugoslavia
Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

High prices and high costs

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

High prices, constant costs

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

High prices and low costs

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

Constant prices, high costs

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

Constant prices, low costs

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

Low prices, constant costs

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

Low prices and low costs

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

Low construction

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

High waste paper recovery

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

Low waste paper recovery

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

Minimum imports 1

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

Minimum imports 2

Europe
Nordic countries
European Union (12)
Central Europe
East Europe
South-East Europe
Baltic countries
European Union (15)
Western Europe (18)
Countries in transition

WOOD FOR ENERGY SCENARIOS

Consumption of fuelwood, 1980-2020
Consumption of primary processing residues for energy
Consumption of secondary processing residues for energy
Consumption of recovered wood products for energy
Consumption of pulp and paper industry residues (wood and bark) for energy
Consumption of wood for energy, excluding liquors
Wood equivalent of energy from pulping liquors

Some facts about the Timber Committee

UN-ECE/FAO Publications