FAO FISHERIES TECHNICAL PAPER 248 FIR/T248
A study of methodologies for forecasting aquaculture development
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FAO FISHERIES TECHNICAL PAPER 248 FIR/T248 A study of methodologies for forecasting aquaculture development |
Inland Water Resources and Aquaculture Service Fisheries Resources and Environment Division
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
M-44
ISBN 92–5–102132–5
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FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 1984
© FAO
This report was first prepared in draft form as a working paper for the Fisheries Department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN and for the Working Party on Aquaculture of the FAO Advisory Committee on Marine Resources Research (ACMRR). It was intended to explore potential avenues of analysis of trends in aquaculture development, of assessing critical factors affecting these trends, and of predicting the future significance of aquaculture to the fish production of FAO's member governments. The draft was produced by a small task force consisting of Ronald Mayo (Chairman), John Glude, and Ivar Strand, assisted by the staff of the Inland Water Resources and Aquaculture Service (FIRI) and the Aquaculture Development and Coordination Programme (ADCP).
The ACMRR recommended that this report should be published in its present form for general distribution to assist aquaculture planners. This recommendation was accepted by FAO.
The basic data utilized have been derived from data submitted by various governments in response to a questionnaire sent out by the ADCP, and from data obtained from various other published and unpublished sources. The resulting base of data is very incomplete and in some cases rather subjective as, at this level of the study, it was desirable to use the best estimates of the group rather than “official” data where these were in conflict. It remains a major conclusion of the study that the available aquaculture data in most countries are as yet inadequate for planning and policy decisions related to aquaculture development and that improvement of these data should be a priority activity of FAO and its member governments.
| Distribution: FAO Fisheries Department FAO Regional Fisheries Officers FAO Representatives Members of ACMRR CIFA EIFAC IPFC Selector SI |
For bibliographic purposes this document should be cited as follows: FAO, 1984 Inland Water Resources and Aquaculture Service, 1984 Fishery Resources and Environment Division, A study of methodologies for forecasting aquaculture development. FAO Fish. Tech.Pap., (248):47 p. |
| ABSTRACT |
Growth in food production through aquaculture between 1975 and 1980
has been substantial but varying from country to country and product to
product. This paper addresses the problem of analysing the causes of such
differences in growth in aquaculture production in order (1) to predict future
growth, and (2) to better understand how a rapid and rational growth of
aquaculture industries can be promoted nationally, regionally and globally. |
The study concludes that the data currently available to FAO are quite
inadequate, as yet, to make the required analyses. It nevertheless
demonstrates that useful indications can be obtained even from the information
presently available, and elaborates several approaches that could be
usefully applied as soon as better data are available. The report calls
attention to the utility of comparing changes in aquaculture to both the
capture fisheries and agriculture in analyzing local, national and regional
differences. Noting the markedly different levels of production among
countries in relation to a variety of commonly employed indicators of
agricultural resources, and corresponding differences in the problems of
encouraging growth at different levels of intensity production, the authors
define and contrast Aquaculturally Developed Countries and Aquaculturally
Developing Countries. The resulting classification cuts across the more
general Developing/Developed Country contrast. |
Finally a method is explored for assessing the relative importance of
constraining factors based on a relatively subjective “expert rating” system,
and an inidcation given of how a useful analytical model of trend analysis
could be developed. |
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