A Review of the Market in Traditional Sisal and Henequen Products (Especially Agricultural Twines and General Cordage) and an Assessment of Future Potential

Vivian Landon[9]
United Kingdom

1 INTRODUCTION

Since the emergence of sisal and henequen as a major commercial fibre in the early part of the last century, traditional products such as twines, ropes and sacking have accounted for easily the largest share of fibre produced. In 1973/4 for example, when world production was still a substantial 770 000 tonnes or thereabouts, these applications accounted for an estimated near 75 percent of global fibre production and, although this figure has declined considerably (to some 60 percent today), the traditional twine, rope and cordage sector is still by some way the largest single consumer of these fibres.

Baler twine, which in tonnage terms accounts for the largest part of usage in this sector, increasingly replaced binder twine from the time of the introduction of the pick-up baler in the mid-1940's. The market reached its peak in the mid-to-late 1960's and it was not until 1974 that polypropylene harvest twine, which had first been introduced in the early 1960's, began to make important gains - following big increases in sisal prices. (In some respects, the FAO Intergovernmental Group meeting in Merida, Mexico in January, 1973, is seen as something of a "watershed" as several major harvest twine manufacturers are known thereafter to have openly pushed polypropylene twine into the market).

Even until the late 1960s and early 1970s sisal preparation and spinning units, largely for twine manufacture, were being sold in Europe (despite a huge world over-capacity) and in sisal producer countries sales of new machinery continued until the late 1970s/early 1980s.

In order to fully understand the development towards the present situation, and to have a background on which to base an assessment of future potential, it is felt that a brief historical review is helpful and indeed important.

2 BACKGROUND

In 1973/4 it was estimated that the world-wide usage of sisal and henequen[10] was split approximately as shown in Table 1, with over 50 percent of fibre being used in harvest twines. At this time sisal baler and binder twine consumption was around 400 000, with the breakdown betweeen the various countries approximately as shown in Table 2.

By 1978/9 polypropylene twine was making substantial inroads into sisal consumption for harvest purposes (in addition to other fodder presentation methods such as silage), so that total sisal and henequen usage for agricultural twines was estimated to have fallen significantly.

As the total world harvest twine market was then estimated at some 380 000 to 400 000 tonnes per annum, polypropylene had by then achieved a market share of perhaps 32 percent overall, but with big variations from country to country.

Table 1: Use of sisal and henequen, by application

Application	1973/74		1990		2000
	Quantity	Share	Quantity	Share	Quantity	Share
	tonnes	%	tonnes	%	tonnes	%
Harvest twines	400 000	53.3	180 000	45	84 000	32.3
Packing/tying twines	82 000	10.9	88 000	22	72 000	27.7
Ropes, general cordage	80 000	10.7
Padding, sacking, chopping	110 0001	14.7	70 000	17.5	12 000	4.6
Total Traditional Uses	672 000	90.0	338 000	85.0	103 000	40.0
Carpets, wall coverings	38 000	5.1	12 000	3.0	20 0002	7.7
Paper incl. kraft, and other	40 000	5.3	50 0003	12.5	72 0004	27.7
Total world use	750 0005	100.0	400 000	100.0	260 000	100.0

¹At this time a big user was the mattress and automobile industry in North America
²Includes China
³ Includes paper, handicrafts, dartboards, buffing cloth, geotextiles, wall boards etc.
⁴Also includes automobile industry
⁵ World production was perhaps 20 000 tonnes per year higher

Sources: FAO and others.

	1973/74	1978/79	1990	2000
	tonnes	tonnes	tonnes	tonnes
USA	130 000	82 000 to 87 000	78 000	62 000
Canada	39 000	20 000 to 22 000	13 000
EEC	139 000	105 000 to 110 000	42 000	15 000
Other Western Europe¹	18 000	12 000 to 14 000	10 000
Other Developed²	32 000	14 000 to 17 000	12 000	7000
Eastern Bloc³	42 000	25 000 to 28 000	25 000
Total world	400 000	258 000 to 278 000	180 000	84 000

¹ Includes Israel, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Norway etc.
² Includes Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Africa, Argentina etc.
³ Includes Poland, USSR, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Romania, Czechoslovakia, etc.

The Federation of European Rope, Twine and Netting Industries (Eurocord) estimates the total harvest twine market in the 12 EC countries for the 1990/91 season at about 135 000 tonnes with the sisal share about 42 000 tonnes (31 percent) and the polypropylene share at about 93 000 tonnes (69 percent) - sisal equivalent. Relatively, sisal and henequen were holding their share of the harvest twine market far more strongly in North America (especially the United States). In the 1989/90 and 1990/1 seasons imports into the latter alone were 82 687 tonnes and 73 791 tonnes respectively.

It is not easy in December 2000 to estimate accurately the current (1999/2000) position but all figures and reports available indicate a further progressive fall in overall consumption in this "traditional" sector of the market over the past ten years. Even consumption of sisal harvest twine in the hitherto "bright" spot and the largest market, the United States, is thought to have fallen substantially in the past few seasons to the benefit of polypropylene. In the season to 31 August 2000 total U.S. sisal and henequen harvest twine imports (there is no domestic manufacture) amounted to 49 915 tonnes against 70 122 tonnes in the 1995 season. Canadian imports, seemingly steadier, for the 2000 season came to 5 557 tonnes against 6 695 tonnes in the 1995 season. After the record U.S. hay crop in the 1999 season, this reduction in imports must be viewed as a disappointing development.

World production and approximate usage of sisal and henequen now stands at some 260 000 tonnes with a breakdown by sector as shown in Table 1. Again, the fall in consumption of ropes and general cordage has been far less marked than harvest twine, largely for the reason explained earlier. (See also section 3.2 below: Projections and Potential: Rope and General Cordage)

As far as agricultural twines are concerned the reduction in consumption by market region is estimated as shown in Table 2. In addition to the reduced consumption in North America, Europe and elsewhere, demand in the Eastern Bloc, especially in Poland, Hungary and the former USSR, has been largely superceded by polypropylene.

In the entirety of the traditional usage area of ropes and twines the market would appear to have diminished as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of market for sisal and henequen ropes and twines, 1970s to 2000

		1973/4	1990	2000
Total sisal and henequen market	tonnes	750000	400000	260000
Ropes and twines	tonnes	562000	268000	156000
	% of total	75	67	60

3 PROJECTIONS AND POTENTIAL

3.1 Agricultural Twines

It now seems clear that barring the introduction of completely unexpected elements or new technological developments, the world market for sisal and henequen agricultural twines has no potential for recovery on anything but a local basis. Indeed, it looks set for further diminution.

As noted earlier, consumption in the one remaining large-scale market, the United States, having proved far more resilient than Europe and elsewhere, now appears to be on the decline. If the pattern there follows anything like the recent pattern in Europe, it might be expected that the market for sisal twines would fall by 20 to 25 percent over the next five years or so. This would mean a market of around 40 000 to 43 000 tonnes against an estimated 55 000 tonnes today.

In Europe the annual loss to polypropylene and more recently from the introduction of bale netting and other developments, seems to have stabilised to some extent, although from a much lower base than in the US. (see Table 4) Overall the consumption of harvest twine is likely to continue to fall.

To a large extent the development of baling machinery technology over the past decade or so, requiring as it does an increasing strength and conformity, has been an important factor in the growth of polypropylene twine usage. Over the years more and more farmers, and more importantly contractors, have acquired the new machinery and many old square balers have been retired.

Table 4: Apparent sisal harvest twine consumption, EC (15 countries)

	Consumption
	tonnes
1996/7	15 601
1997/8	15 325
1998/9	14 437

Source: Eurocord

3.2 Packing twines, ropes and general cordage

Products under this heading, and their markets, are more difficult to track than agricultural twines and are more diversified in both product range and geographical area.

Sisal packing/tying twine consumption has declined very considerably since the mid 1970's but is still a factor in both Europe and North America.

In 1980 Eurocord estimates of sales amongst its then 10-Country membership, was given as 6 446 tonnes, without sales by non-members which then included Portugal and Spain. By 1983 sales were estimated at 3 695 tonnes with additional non-member sales at 4 436 tonnes - a total of 8 131 tonnes, and by 1987 members' sales (with the EC now at 12) were given as 6 314 tonnes in total.

Apparent EC consumption of all non-harvest twine sisal products (i.e. including ropes and perhaps a small element of carpet yarns etc.) over the past three years (1997, 1998 and 1999) is estimated at 9 352, 8 218 and 8 243 tonnes respectively.

Despite some apparent stabilisation, albeit at lower levels, it would be difficult to forecast that this area could do any better than to hold on to its small market share in the coming years.

Sisal and henequen ropes, especially small ropes or "mini-coils", are still a relatively important factor in the United States market where total imports (presumably including a small but unidentifiable quantity of packing twine) were 9 115 tonnes in 1999 and nearly 6 000 tonnes in the first six months of 2000.

From the apparent consumption figures for the EC, given under the previous heading, a "guestimate" might be that sisal rope usage is currently in the range 4 000 to 5 000 tonnes. These sisal rope markets may continue at about similar levels over the next three to five years, assuming prices remain competitive and quality is upheld.

There continues to be a substantial, if hard to define, market for ropes (especially small ropes) and tying twine in the sisal and henequen producing countries themselves, as any visit to Brazil, Mexico, Tanzania, Kenya and elsewhere will witness. Additionally neighbouring countries and other areas remain important users including the Middle East, especially Egypt, Central and South Africa, Central and South America and Pakistan, India, China and Australia.

Again this consumption seems likely to continue in the foreseeable future at least, assuming that production and manufacture remain at competitive levels.

One specialised area covered under this heading is that of wire rope cores, particularly for use in elevator ropes. This market, although small overall has manufacturing capacity in Europe, North America, Mexico, South Africa, Australia, Japan, Korea, Brazil and elsewhere. Despite new developments in elevator design (such as the use of magnetics) it is expected that this market will endure for some years to come.

Recent estimates are that the present world market for wire rope cores amounts to some 8 000 to 10 000 t.p.a. Demand is lower during recessions and higher during "boom" periods when new building work levels are high. Engineering wire rope cores can and are being made from other, mainly synthetic, materials but cores for elevator wire ropes are by preference largely made from sisal - especially for the large U.S. market.

From the above it will be seen that currently consumption in Europe and the United States under the group heading of "packing twines, ropes and general cordage" may be in the order of 20 000 to 22 000 tonnes per annum, in an area that might be understood to be dominated by synthetic twines and ropes. As the total estimate of world usage under this heading is put at an estimated 72 000 tonnes, the apparent usage in the rest of the world is around 50 000 to 52 000 tonnes.

This analysis of the traditional sector is of course somewhat depressing in that there has been an unrelenting decline in consumption over the years - although it is felt that some stabilisation is now evident. Clearly, therefore, the sisal and henequen industry must concentrate on the newer, more specialised areas for the future, where there is greater added value and where there are prospects of development and of sustaining better prices.

3.3 Projections

Projections on production and usage regarding commodities of this type are notoriously difficult, so it is interesting to compare the FAO forecast for the year 2000 (CCP:HF 93/9) made seven years ago in 1993 with actual market developments.

The underlying projection was that production of sisal and henequen would be down to some 370 000 tonnes by 2000, whereas today's figure is estimated at approximately 260 000 tonnes. Given this, the projections of usage in each sector (as a percentage) have mostly been quite accurate.

Agricultural twines have weakened by more than forecast but this has been counter-balanced by a more resistant market for other twines and ropes than thought likely at that time. Sisal carpets have not increased to quite the levels projected and the overall tonnages used in paper have been a disappointing development.

Table 5: 1993 Projections to 2000, and actual 2000 outcome

	1993 Projections to 2000		Estimated actual consumption in 2000
	tonnes	%	tonnes	%
Agricultural twines	120 000	32.4	84 000	32.3
Other twines, ropes & cables	50 000	13.5	72 000	27.7
Sacks bags & padding	50 000	13.5	12 000	4.6
Carpets, mats & matting	5 000	9.5	20 000	7.7
Paper	90 000	24.3	72 000	27.7
Other	25 000	6.8
Total	370 000	100.0	260 000	100.0

Where does this lead us in making a projection for sisal and henequen for the year 2010? At the risk of being controversial, the following is suggested:-

From a projected world production of 155 000 tonnes (approximately a contraction of 5 percent per annum) usage could be as shown in table 6.

Table 6: Possible sisal consumption in 2010

Application	2000 projection
	tonnes
Agricultural twines	20 000
Other twines, ropes & cables sacks & bags	32 000
Padding	8 000
Carpets, matting	18 000
Paper	30 000
Other (incl.Automobile, buffing cloth, dartboards, geotextiles, handicrafts etc)	47 000
TOTAL	155 000

4 A BRIEF NOTE ON SISAL AND HENEQUEN USAGE IN BAGS, PADS/MATRESSES AND BUFFING CLOTH.

4.1 Bags

Since the demise of sisal bag making in West Africa, it is thought that this activity is now concentrated in the producing countries only.

Kenya has three possible manufacturing units but production, principally at one of these, is understood to be no more than 600/700 tonnes per annum.

Tanzania has two production units, at Morogoro and Moshi, but only the former is thought to be working at the moment. There has apparently, however, been a recent regulation that all future exports of coffee and cashew nuts must be in sisal bags, leading perhaps to an increase in manufacture.

There may be limited manufacture in Brazil and China but details are not known.

It is worth noting that the fique production in Colombia (FAO estimates are of some 21 000 tonnes per annum) is mostly used in the manufacture of coffee bags.

4.2 Pads/mattresses

The previously large (up to 5000 tonnes per annum) sisal mattress business in Korea has all but disappeared, with perhaps some of the activity taken up in China. A Korean-owned manufacturing unit in Nairobi has also closed.

The biggest user currently is understood to be Brazil, with three or four units, largely making pads for use on top of springs in the automobile industry. Production is mostly for domestic consumption with some exports to North America. Australia may also have a small production unit.

4.3 Buffing cloth

This is still a fairly vibrant business worldwide but overall usage is probably not much more than previous estimates of 7 000 to 8 000 tonnes per annum.

Manufacturing takes place in South Africa, Mexico, Japan, China, Madagascar, Spain, Kenya and other areas. The United States, Europe, Japan and Korea are the major markets.