Explanatory notes

SYMBOLS AND UNITS

TIME PERIODS

1998	calendar year
1997/99	average for the three years centred on 1998
1970-90	period from 1970 to 1990
1997/99-2030	period from the three-year average 1997/99 to 2030

GROWTH RATES

Annual percentage growth rates for historical periods are computed from all the annual data of the period using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to estimate an exponential curve with time as the explanatory variable. The estimated coefficient of time is the annual growth rate. Annual growth rates for projection periods are compound growth rates calculated from values for the begin- and end-point of the period.

COUNTRIES AND COUNTRY GROUPS

The list of countries and the standard country groups used in this report are shown in Appendix 1. In the text, the term «transition countries» is used to denote the countries in Eastern Europe (including the former Yugoslavia SFR) and in the former Soviet Union. The term «industrial countries» is used for the countries referred to formerly as «developed market economies».

LAND DEFINITIONS

Arable area is the physical land area used for growing crops (both annual and perennial). In any given year, part of the arable area may not be cropped (fallow) or may be cropped more than once (double cropping). The area actually cropped and harvested in any given year is the harvested area. The harvested area expressed as a percentage of the arable area is the cropping intensity. Land with (rainfed) crop production potential consists of all land area that is at present arable or is potentially arable, i.e. is suitable for growing crops when developed (see Chapter 4).

DATA SOURCES

All data are derived from FAO sources unless specified otherwise.

CONTRIBUTORS TO THE BOOOK

This book is the product of cooperative work by most technical units of FAO. It was prepared by a team led by Jelle Bruinsma under the general direction of Hartwig de Haen, Assistant Director-General, Economic and Social Department. Members of the team were Nikos Alexandratos (consultant), Josef Schmidhuber, Gerold Bödeker and Maria-Grazia Ottaviani. Paul Harrison edited most of the chapters.

Main contributors to or authors of the individual chapters were as follows: Chapter 1 (Introduction and overview): Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma. Chapter 2 (Prospects for food and nutrition): Nikos Alexandratos with inputs from Jorge Mernies of the Statistics Division (estimates of chronic undernourishment). Chapter 3 (Prospects for aggregate agriculture and major commodity groups): Nikos Alexandratos with inputs from Ali GÜrkan, Myles Mielke, Concha Calpe, Nancy Morgan and Peter Thoenes of the Commodities and Trade Division (commodity projections); Samarendu Mohanty of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (prospects for India); Gregory Scott of the Centro Internacional de la Papa (prospects for roots and tubers); and Klaus Frohberg, Jana Fritzsch and Catrin Schreiber of the Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa (prospects for agriculture in Transition countries). Chapter 4 (Crop production and natural resource use): Jelle Bruinsma with inputs from Günther Fischer of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Freddy Nachtergaele (agricultural land potential), Jean-Marc Faurès and Jippe Hoogeveen (irrigation), Jan Poulisse (fertilizers) of the Land and Water Development Division; Dat Tran, Peter Griffee and Nguu Nguyen (crop land and yield projections) of the Plant Production and Protection Division; Clare Bishop (consultant) and Lawrence Clarke (farm power) of the Agricultural Support Systems Division. Chapter 5 (Livestock production): Henning Steinfeld and Joachim Otte of the Animal Production and Health Division. Chapter 6 (Forestry): Michael Martin and CTS Nair of the Forestry Policy and Planning Division, who coordinated the contribution from the Forestry Department. Chapter 7 (Fisheries): Ulf Wijkstrom and Rebecca Metzner of the Fishery Policy and Planning Division, who coordinated the contributions of specialists in the Fisheries Department. Chapter 8 (Agriculture in poverty alleviation and economic development): Sumiter Broca and Kostas Stamoulis of the Agriculture and Economic Development Analysis Division with inputs from Alberto Zezza (consultant). Chapter 9 (Agricultural trade, trade policies and the global food system): Josef Schmidhuber with inputs from Terri Raney (Commodities and Trade Division), Timothy Josling and Alan Matthews (consultants). Chapter 10 (Globalization in food and agriculture): Josef Schmidhuber with inputs from Bruce Traill (consultant). Chapter 11 (Selected issues in agricultural technology): Jelle Bruinsma with inputs from Nikos Alexandratos (yields), Gerold Bödeker (integrated pest and nutrient management), Nadia Scialabba (organic agriculture), Josef Schmidhuber and Nuria Urquia (biotechnology), and Vivian Timon (research). Chapter 12 (Agriculture and the environment: changing pressures, solutions and trade-offs): David Norse (consultant) with inputs from Jeff Tschirley of the Research, Extension and Training Division. Chapter 13 (Climate change and agriculture: physical and human dimensions): David Norse (consultant) with inputs from René Gommes of the Research, Extension and Training Division.

Members of the Working Group of the FAO Priority Area for Interdisciplinary Action on Global Perspective Studies provided comments on the various drafts. Comments on individual chapters were also provided by Robert Brinkman, Alan Matthews, Vernon Ruttan and Gérard Viatte.

Maria-Grazia Ottaviani was responsible for most of the data preparation, statistical analysis and the appendixes, and Anastasia Saltas for the manuscript preparation.