PROJECTIONS OF
TOBACCO PRODUCTION,
CONSUMPTION
AND TRADE
TO THE YEAR 2010


Table of Contents

   

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
Rome, 2003

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© FAO 2003

Table of Contents

FOREWORD

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT OF THE STUDY
1.2 OBJECTIVES, CONSTRAINTS, CAVEATS AND DATA AVAILABILITY
1.3 METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
1.4 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT

2 PAST TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

2.1 CONSUMPTION OF TOBACCO PRODUCTS

2.1.1 Major trends in world tobacco consumption in tobacco leaf equivalent
2.1.2 Consumption of cigarettes
2.1.3 Consumption of other tobacco products
2.1.4 Major factors explaining tobacco consumption growth

2.2 PRODUCTION OF TOBACCO LEAF

2.2.1 Major Trends
2.2.2 Developed countries
2.2.3 Developing countries

2.3 CIGARETTE MANUFACTURING AND TOBACCO LEAF USAGE

2.3.1 Production of cigarettes
2.3.2 Types of tobacco used in cigarette manufacturing

2.4 TRADE IN TOBACCO LEAF AND CIGARETTES

2.4.1 Exports and imports of tobacco leaf
2.4.2 Exports and imports of cigarettes
2.4.3 Trade in cigars and other tobacco products

3 PROJECTIONS TO 2005 AND 2010

3.1 METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK

3.1.1 The methodological approach
3.1.2 Data and definitions
3.1.3 Factors affecting demand
3.1.4 Price and non-price factors in projecting supply
3.1.5 Determinants of exports and imports
3.1.6 Policy scenarios
3.1.7 Caveats and limitations

3.2 PROJECTIONS OF DEMAND

3.2.1 Overall demand projections
3.2.2 Developed countries
3.2.3 Developing countries

3.3 PROJECTIONS OF PRODUCTION OF TOBACCO LEAF

3.3.1 Prospects for world tobacco leaf production
3.3.2 Prospects for tobacco production in developed countries
3.3.3 Prospects for tobacco production in developing countries

3.4 PROJECTIONS OF TRADE FLOWS

3.4.1 Overall trade trends
3.4.2 Prospects for tobacco trade in developed countries
3.4.3 Prospects for tobacco trade in developing countries

3.5 OVERALL DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS

4 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

ANNEXES

ANNEX A. STATISTICAL ANNEX

LIST OF COUNTRIES AND COUNTRY GROUPS USED IN THIS STUDY

POPULATION

Table A.a Population (million)

INCOME

Table A.b GDP (billion $US 1987)

PRODUCTION

Table A.1.1 Tobacco leaf - area harvested (million hectares)
Table A.1.2 Tobacco leaf - production (farm weight - '000 tonnes)
Table A.1.3 Cigarettes - production ('000 tonnes)
Table A.1.4 Cigars - production ('000 tonnes)
Table A.1.5 Flue-cured tobacco - production ('000 tonnes)
Table A.1.6 Burley tobacco - production ('000 tonnes)
Table A.1.7 Dark air/sun cured tobacco - production ('000 tonnes)
Table A.1.8 Dark fire-cured tobacco - production ('000 tonnes)
Table A.1.9 Light air-cured tobacco - production ('000 tonnes)
Table A.1.10 Oriental tobacco - production ('000 tonnes)

CONSUMPTION

Table A.2.1 Tobacco leaf - consumption (dry weight - '000 tonnes)
Table A.2.2 Cigarettes - consumption ('000 tonnes)

EXPORTS

Table A.3.1 Tobacco leaf - exports ('000 tonnes)
Table A.3.2 Tobacco leaf - export value (million US$)
Table A.3.3 Tobacco leaf - world price and export unit value
Table A.3.4 Cigarettes - exports ('000 tonnes)
Table A.3.5 Cigars - exports ('000 tonnes)
Table A.3.6 Other tobacco - exports (1000 Mt)

IMPORTS

Table A.4.1 Tobacco leaf - imports (1000 Mt)
Table A.4.2 Tobacco leaf - import value (million $)
Table A.4.3 Cigarettes - imports ('000 tonnes)
Table A.4.4 Cigars - Imports (1000 Mt)
Table A.4.5 Other tobacco - imports ('000 tonnes)

ANNEX B. METHODOLOGICAL ANNEX

1. INTRODUCTION
2. A STANDARD COMMODITY MODEL
3. MODEL SPECIFICATION AND DATA

Table B.1 Farm level prices (US$/kg)
Table B.2 US dollar deflator

4. THE METHODOLOGY OF PROJECTIONS
5. DATA SOURCES AND DEFINITIONS USED IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE COMMODITY MODEL
6. ESTIMATION RESULTS
7. ADDITIONAL ESTIMATION RESULTS

REFERENCES