Medium-term prospects for agricultural commodities

Table 1.1. Assumptions on population and GDP growth, 1989 to 1999 actual and 2010 projected

	Population			Total GDP (billion US$ at 1999 prices)			Per capita GDP (US$ at 1999 prices)
	1989	1999	2010	1989	1999	2010	1989	1999	2010

World total	5 167	5 976	6 867	25 652	32 662	44 762	4 964	5 466	6 518

	Growth rates (percent per year)
	1989-99		1999-2010	1989-99		1999-2010	1989-99		1999-2010
World	1.5		1.2	2.4		2.9	1.0		1.6

Developing economies	1.7		1.4	4.5		4.6	2.7		3.0
North Africa	2.0		1.7	2.6		3.2	0.6		1.6
Sub-Saharan Africa	2.7		2.4	2.6		3.8	-0.1		1.2
Central America	2.0		1.6	3.5		3.8	1.5		2.2
Caribbean	1.2		1.0	1.7		3.9	0.5		2.9
South America	1.6		1.3	2.7		2.8	1.0		1.4
Near East	2.5		2.1	2.7		3.2	0.1		0.9
South Asia	1.9		1.5	5.3		5.1	3.5		3.3
South East Asia	1.2		0.9	6.8		6.0	5.5		5.0
Oceania	2.1		2.0	3.1		4.3	0.8		2.2

Transitional economies	0.1		0.0	-3.7		4.5	-3.8		4.4
Eastern Europe	-0.1		-0.0	-1.1		4.4	-1.0		4.5
CIS	0.2		0.1	-4.5		4.5	-4.5		4.8
Baltic	-0.6		-0.7	-0.3		5.0	0.4		5.5

Industrialized economies	0.6		0.3	2.3		2.4	1.6		2.1

Table 1.2. World: Past and projected growth of production, demand and trade

		Production/demand		Net exports
		1989* - 1999*	*1999 - 2010**	1989* - 1999*	*1999 - 2010**
		percent per year

All commodities		2.1	1.6	2.9	2.1

Basic foodstuffs		2.0	1.6	1.9	2.4

Cereals		1.1	1.1	2.5	1.8
Wheat		0.8	1.3	1.5	2.0
Rice, milled		1.6	0.9	7.6	2.2
Coarse grains		0.9	1.1	1.9	1.2
	Maize	2.9	1.2	2.3	1.3
	Millet and sorghum	-0.2	1.3	-2.1	2.4
	Other coarse grains	-2.4	0.6	2.3	0.7

Cassava		1.3	1.4	-6.7	2.5

Oils and fats		4.5	2.6	6.8	2.8
Oilcakes and meals		4.0	2.3	5.3	2.6

Total meat		3.9	2.1	6.1	2.8
	Beef and veal	2.8	1.3	1.3	2.4
	Mutton and lamb	3.2	2.0	1.0	2.7
	Pigmeat	4.0	2.2	12.7	3.0
	Poultry meat	6.2	3.1	16.2	3.1

Dairy products		0.3	1.5	2.6	2.3

Other commodities		3.1	1.8	4.0	1.9

Citrus and tropical fruits		4.5	2.3	5.0	2.3
Citrus fruits		3.7	1.4	4.4	-0.4
Tropical fruits		5.3	3.2	5.2	3.1

Tropical beverages		1.7	1.0	1.8	0.9
Tea		1.3	1.9	1.1	1.7
Coffee		1.9	0.5	1.8	0.2
Cocoa		1.7	2.0	2.7	2.1

Sugar		1.9	1.9

Raw materials		0.8	0.6	0.7	0.2
Cotton		0.4	0.8	1.0	0.8
Jute		-2.2	-1.5	-3.0	-0.1
Abaca		1.6	0.4	1.2	0.4
Sisal		-3.7	-2.0	-2.5	-4.1
Coir		5.7	2.0	1.4	0.4
Bovine hides and skins		1.4	-0.1	-0.7	-3.5
Sheep and goat skins		1.2	1.4	1.5	-0.7
Natural rubber		2.9	1.3	1.6	1.3

*Throughout this document, a year marked with an asterisk signifies the average of the three years centred on the year shown.

Table 1.3. Developing economies: Past and projected growth of production, demand and trade

		Production		Demand		Net imports
		*1989 -** 1999*	*1999 - 2010**	*1989 -** 1999*	*1999 - 2010**	*1989 -** 1999*	*1999 - 2010**

All commodities		3.2	2.0	3.2	2.0	2.5 *	2.4 *

Basic foodstuffs		3.1	2.0	3.2	2.0	17.3	0.7

Cereals		1.9	1.1	1.9	1.2	0.4	2.7
Wheat		2.0	1.2	1.7	1.5	-0.5	3.2
Rice, milled		1.7	0.9	1.8	1.0	-8.1	- *
Coarse grains		2.1	1.3	2.3	1.3	2.8	2.5
	Maize	3.2	1.3	3.3	1.4	2.4	3.3
	Millet and sorghum	0.2	1.4	0.4	1.3	3.8	3.8
	Other coarse grains	-1.0	1.4	0.2	1.0	3.4	0.6

Cassava		1.3	1.4	2.0	1.4	-8.7 *	4.2 *

Oils and fats		5.3	3.3	5.7	2.8	-	- *
Oilcakes and meals		4.5	3.2	6.7	3.0	-3.3 *	4.1 *

Total meat		5.5	2.8	5.4	2.8	3.0	2.6
	Beef and veal	3.9	2.2	3.6	2.2	-6.8	1.6
	Mutton and lamb	4.1	2.5	4.0	2.5	2.8	3.3
	Pigmeat	5.7	2.7	5.8	2.8	38.8	3.7
	Poultry meat	8.9	3.8	8.9	3.7	10.4	2.1

Dairy products		3.8	2.5	3.5	2.5	0.7	2.6

Other commodities		3.8	2.2	3.1	2.0	4.4 *	2.0 *

Citrus and tropical fruits		5.2	2.6	5.2	2.9	5.2 *	2.2 *
Citrus fruits		5.1	1.5	5.0	2.8	5.3 *	-1.2 *
Tropical fruits		5.3	3.2	12.3	3.4	5.1 *	3.1 *

Tropical beverages		1.8	1.0	1.4	1.6	1.8 *	0.9 *
Tea		1.8	1.9	2.0	1.8	1.2 *	2.3 *
Coffee		1.9	0.5	0.5	1.3	1.8 *	0.2 *
Cocoa		1.7	2.0	3.0	1.8	1.7 *	3.2 *

Sugar		3.2	2.5	2.9	2.9	5.5 *	-5.3 *

Raw materials		1.3	1.2	2.5	1.2	-	3.5
Cotton		0.6	1.2	2.2	1.0	12.7	1.2
Jute		-2.2	-1.5	-1.1	-1.6	-4.2 *	-4.4 *
Abaca		1.6	0.4	3.7	0.1	1.1 *	0.5 *
Sisal		-3.7	-1.9	-4.0	2.1	-3.5 *	-6.0 *
Coir		5.7	2.0	10.3	2.2	0.4 *	1.6 *
Bovine hides and skins		3.1	1.5	3.2	1.3	4.7	-0.7
Sheep and goat skins		3.3	1.8	4.0	2.4	2.3 *	-
Natural rubber		2.9	1.3	4.3	2.5	1.8 *	0.3 *

Note: a star (*) indicates net exports.

Table 1.4. Economies in transition: Past and projected growth of production, demand and trade

		Production		Demand		Net imports
		*1989 -** 1999*	*1999 - 2010**	*1989 -** 1999*	*1999 - 2010**	*1989 -** 1999 *	*1999 - 2010**

All commodities		-2.1	1.4	-2.2	1.2	-7.3	1.4

Basic foodstuffs		-2.0	1.5	-2.2	1.3	-11.1	-1.6

Cereals		-3.8	2.3	-4.3	1.1	- *	40.0
Wheat		-2.9	2.9	-3.7	1.3	- *	26.8
Rice, milled		-7.2	3.2	-3.4	4.1	3.1	4.8
Coarse grains		-4.6	1.4	-5.1	0.6	- *	14.3
	Maize	-1.9	1.6	-4.9	0.7	- *	8.3
	Millet and sorghum	-9.5	-0.4	-11.5	-0.3	- *	-
	Other coarse grains	-5.4	1.3	-5.1	0.5	- *	19.6

Cassava				-41.4	38.0	-41.6	38.4

Oils and fats		-1.0	2.3	-1.9	2.6	- *	-
Oilcakes and meals		-2.8	1.8	-7.0	2.8	-14.3	5.7

Total meat		9.1	1.4	10.7	1.7	-	4.0
	Beef and veal	16.2	0.2	16.6	0.7	24.5	6.1
	Mutton and lamb	12.9	1.8	13.7	1.8	-	-0.3
	Pigmeat	5.5	2.0	6.6	2.1	-	3.3
	Poultry meat	7.7	2.6	13.8	2.8	-	3.1

Dairy products		-4.8	0.8	-4.9	0.9	- *	-12.5

Other commodities		-4.4	-1.8	-2.4	0.5	2.7	4.1

Citrus and tropical fruits		-9.9	-0.4	7.6	2.0	9.6	2.1
Citrus fruits		-9.9	-0.4	3.8	2.5	6.0	2.7
Tropical fruits				16.9	1.4	16.9	1.4

Tropical beverages		-18.7	2.0	-0.4	2.9	0.8	2.3
Tea		-18.7	2.0	1.4	3.3	0.9	3.4
Coffee				-6.5		-6.5
Cocoa				-6.7	0.8	0.6	-1.1

Sugar		-5.7	1.1	-2.2	0.7	3.0	1.0

Raw materials		-3.4	-3.3	-6.5	-2.0	12.1 *	-6.3
Cotton		-5.0	0.6	-9.0	1.8	24.9 *	-1.1
Jute				-6.8	-	-7.0	-
Sisal				-17.0	-4.6	-17.0	-4.6
Bovine hides and skins		0.7	-	-1.0	-	0.8 *	-
Sheep and goat skins		-6.5	1.8	-5.1	-7.4	-	-
Natural rubber				-3.0	7.9	-3.0	7.9

Note: a star (*) indicates net exports.

Table 1.5. Industrialized economies: Past and projected growth of production, demand and trade

		Production		Demand		Net imports
		*1989 -** 1999*	*1999 - 2010**	*1989 -** 1999*	*1999 - 2010**	*1989 -** 1999 *	*1999 - 2010**

All commodities		1.4	0.9	1.0	0.9	-8.5	1.7

Basic foodstuffs		1.4	0.9	0.8	0.9	15.8 *	1.7 *

Cereals		1.7	0.7	1.3	0.7	0.2 *	1.4 *
Wheat		1.5	0.7	1.9	0.7	-0.6 *	1.4 *
Rice, milled		0.3	0.1	0.4	1.0	-0.5 *	-
Coarse grains		1.9	0.7	1.1	0.6	1.7 *	2.0 *
	Maize	3.4	1.0	2.2	1.0	1.4 *	3.2 *
	Millet and sorghum	-0.6	1.1	-4.0	0.0	3.5 *	3.8 *
	Other coarse grains	-0.5	0.0	-0.5	-0.2	2.1 *	-0.9 *

Cassava				-6.6	1.9	-6.6	1.9

Oils and fats		4.3	1.3	3.9	1.8	-6.0	16.8
Oilcakes and meals		4.1	1.3	2.8	1.6	-2.0	2.9

Total meat		1.4	1.1	1.2	1.0	11.9 *	3.3 *
	Beef and veal	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.1	-0.7 *	4.1 *
	Mutton and lamb	-0.3	0.3	-0.7	-0.1	3.9 *	3.3 *
	Pigmeat	1.4	1.2	1.1	1.1	- *	3.5 *
	Poultry meat	3.7	2.3	2.9	2.2	27.9 *	2.7 *

Dairy products		0.4	0.7	0.3	0.6	1.2 *	2.5 *

Other commodities		1.6	0.8	2.2	1.0	2.0	1.7

Citrus and tropical fruits		1.9	1.2	3.3	1.4	3.5	2.6
Citrus fruits		1.9	1.2	3.1	1.0	3.3	2.0
Tropical fruits		2.6	2.4	4.0	3.8	4.3	4.1

Tropical beverages		0.7	2.3	2.0	0.6	1.4	0.7
Tea		0.7	2.3	-0.6	0.3	-0.6	0.2
Coffee				2.0	0.2	1.3	0.2
Cocoa				3.2	2.3	2.8	2.7

Sugar		1.4	0.4	0.9	0.3	5.0 *	1.7 *

Raw materials		1.2	0.0	-0.9	-0.4	- *	6.7 *
Cotton		2.6	-0.1	-1.8	-0.6	17.2 *	2.2 *
Jute				-5.1	-2.5	-5.2	-2.5
Abaca				0.7	2.1	0.7	2.1
Sisal		-10.1	-8.2	-7.6	-1.3	-7.5	-1.2
Coir				2.7	-0.8	2.7	-0.8
Bovine hides and skins		-0.4	0.1	-0.2	0.0	-0.9 *	0.1 *
Sheep and goat skins		-0.8	0.0	-4.1	1.0	- *	-3.1 *
Natural rubber				2.1	-0.5	2.1	-0.5

Note: a star (*) indicates net exports.