Hard fibres

Introduction

In the period to 2010, the market for sisal and henequen is expected to continue to contract, albeit by a relatively slow rate, largely under the influence of competition with synthetic fibres. The market for abaca is expected to remain relatively stable with increases in the trade of manufactures, and especially paper pulp, offsetting the expected decline in trade in fibre. Global consumption of coir is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower rate than that of the past decade, as demand for coir products in India may decelerate. Market conditions for non-traditional hard fibre products are expected to improve, given the assumption of favourable economic conditions, although their share in total consumption may continue to be relatively small.

These projections for hard fibres have been generated by means of partial equilibrium models estimated by using FAO data and assuming normal weather and economic conditions. The models consist of estimated behavioural equations for production, as well as demand, exports and imports of fibre and manufactured products. The models are dynamic, allowing for adjustments to be gradual, thus taking into consideration biological, behavioural and other factors in the production and consumption of fibre and related products

Sisal and henequen

Production

In general, in the medium term, supply is expected to move in line with demand, as producers are better able to plan production levels, due to an increase in the use of long-term contracts between suppliers and importers. These contractual arrangements are the result of firmer demand by the manufacturers of non-traditional sisal products such as composites, carpet yarn and paper pulp, which require forward supply contracts to ensure regular and guaranteed deliveries, as opposed to the seasonal demand by the manufacturers of agricultural twine. The increase in the number of such long-term contracts is expected to further improve the flow of information from consumers to producers and to reduce uncertainty. Such developments are also expected to support prices in the medium term and decrease their variability.

Consumption

Between 1998-2000 and 2010, global demand for sisal and henequen fibre and products is expected to contract by an annual rate of 2.3 percent as agricultural twine, the traditional outlet for fibres, continues to be eroded by synthetic substitutes and by the adoption of harvesting technology that utilizes less or no twine.

Niche applications of sisal in the manufacturing of higher value-added products such as paper pulp, carpet yarn and composites for the automobile industry are expected to generate additional demand, although the growth rates of these applications are expected to only partially offset the contraction of the traditional outlets of sisal, at least in the short run.

During the period from 1988-90 to 1998-2000, consumption in North America, a traditional user of agricultural twine, declined by 7.1 per cent per annum to approximately 52 000 tonnes in 1998-2000. In the medium term, it is likely that consumption in North America, primarily in the United States, will decline to approximately to 48 000 tonnes, mainly due to the continuing displacement of sisal twine by heavy polypropylene twine used in big square bales.

In the EU, between 1988-90 and 1998-2000, consumption of sisal contracted by an annual rate of 7 percent to 39 000 tonnes. It is expected that in the period to 2010, the rate of decline in consumption in Europe will slow down, because possibilities for further substitution by synthetic fibres and for displacement by harvesting techniques may be exhausted, and there may be increased demand for niche applications.

In China, between 1988-1990 and 2000, consumption increased by an average of 4.3 percent per annum from 20 000 tonnes to 35 000 tonnes. Consumption of sisal agricultural twine is projected to contract as its competitiveness continues to be under pressure by the increased capacity in the polypropylene industry.

Trade

Between 1988-90 and 2000 global exports declined by 4 percent per annum. Exports of fibre and manufactures contracted by 5.2 percent and 3.2 percent per annum respectively. It is projected that aggregate exports are likely to contract by an annual rate slower than in the past decade, from 193 000 tonnes in 1998-2000 to 186 000 tonnes in 2010, as demand for sisal non-traditional applications strengthens. Exports of fibre are projected to remain approximately stable at 70 000 tonnes, while exports of manufactures are likely to decline by an annual rate of 0.46 percent. The share of manufactures in total exports is expected to remain at 64 percent, reflecting a gradual increase in the importance of raw fibre used for niche applications.

Abaca

Production

It is projected that in the medium term, production of abaca will contract at a slow rate of 0.5 percent per annum to a level of 83 000 tonnes in 2006 before expanding to 86 000 tonnes in 2010 as prices strengthen from the low point of 2000-2001. The Philippines is expected to remain the major supplier producing more that 85 percent of the global production, while production in Ecuador is projected to contract from a high point of 16 000 tonnes at the end of the 1990s to approximately 12 000 tonnes in 2010.

Consumption

In the period from 1988-90 to 1998-2000, global consumption of abaca, expressed in fibre equivalent, exhibited a strong annual growth rate reaching approximately 81 000 tonnes in 1998-2000. Most of the increase in consumption took place in the EU and Japan in the form of increasing imports of paper pulp. During the same period, demand for traditional products such as cordage has remained stable. In the medium term, consumption of abaca fibre and products is expected to grow at a slow rate. On average, between 1988-90 and 2000, global production of abaca has been increasing ahead of demand, with producers adjusting rapidly to price increases and slowly to price falls. High prices prevailing between 1992 and 1998 encouraged an expansion in production. However, subsequent price decreases led to only a partial contraction of production at most, resulting in even more depressed prices in 2000 and 2001.

Trade

During the last decade, aggregate exports of fibre and manufactures have been increasing by 1.7 percent per annum to an average of 76 400 tonnes in 1998-2000. However, the composition of exports has been changing with manufactures amounting to 52 percent of the total in 1998-2000, compared to 46 percent in 1988-90, as demand for manufactures, especially pulp, has been strengthening relative to that for fibre.

The EU and Japan emerged into major consumers of pulp during the 1990s, with Germany, the United Kingdom and France importing an average of 19 365 tonnes (expressed in fibre equivalent) of pulp in 2000 and 2001. During the same period, Japan’s average imports amounted to 9 045 tonnes. In total, during the 2000-2001 period, exports of pulp to the EU and Japanese markets amounted to 71 percent of the total exports of manufactures, reflecting the importance of these markets.

In the medium term to 2010, it is expected that total exports will remain stable, amounting to approximately 78 000 tonnes. However, the share of manufactures in total exports is expected to increase to 58 percent, amounting to 45 000 tonnes in 2010, compared to a 1998-2000 average of 40 000 tonnes.

Exports of fibre are projected to contract by 1.8 percent per annum to 28 000 tonnes by 2010. Assuming normal economic conditions, strong market demand for specialty and non-woven paper will result in the share of pulp in total exports of manufactures increasing further and amounting to approximately 80 percent of total exports of manufactures by 2010. The fast growth in exports of pulp is also expected to be sustained by developments in the structure of the abaca processing industry in both the Philippines and the importing countries. Industry re-structuring in the United Kingdom in 2001 resulted in a decline in the imports of fibre and a corresponding increase in imports of pulp.

Coir

Production

As a by-product of the production of other coconut products, coir production is largely determined by demand. Abundant quantities of coconut husk imply that, given the availability of labour and other inputs, coir producers can adjust relatively rapidly to market conditions and prices. It is estimated that approximately 10 percent of husks are utilized for fibre extraction, satisfying a growing demand for fibre and coir products.

Production of coir fibre takes place in small- or medium-sized units, mainly in India, Sri Lanka and Thailand. During the 1990s, production in India expanded by 8.2 percent annually in order to meet domestic demand, while in Sri Lanka, a major exporter of coir fibre, production contracted due to weakening export and domestic demand. In the medium term it is projected that global production will increase from an average of 534 000 tonnes in 1998-2000 to 640 000 tonnes in 2010. Most of the expansion in production is likely to take place in India, with some modest growth in Sri Lanka.

Consumption

Between the three-year periods of 1988-90 and 1998-2000, global consumption of coir expanded by 7.1 percent per annum in both producing and importing countries. In India, the largest coir producing and consuming country, consumption increased by 8.4 percent per annum to 400 000 tonnes, representing some 75 percent of global production. The fast growth of consumption was fuelled mainly by increasing demand for traditional coir products such as rugs, carpets and mattresses, as well as for non-traditional products such as coir pith, rubberized coir and geo-textiles. In the medium term, the rapid growth in global consumption is expected to slow down to an annual rate of around 1.4 percent per annum, since the pace at which the coir industry is able to supply innovative and diversified products may decelerate due to a number of constraints such as the small scale of the processing industry.

Trade

International trade accounted for 25 percent of global production in 1998-2000, compared to 40 percent in 1988-1990, since most of the expansion during the past decade in global production and consumption took place in India. Total exports increased by 2.6 percent to 149 000 tonnes in 1998-2000, while exports of manufactures increased by an annual rate of 6.3 percent, offsetting the decline in fibre exports. Strong demand for coir products in importing countries was met by India, which in 1998-2000 accounted for 74 percent of global exports of value-added products. Total exports from Sri Lanka, a traditional exporter of fibre and pith, declined by 1.5 percent per annum due to ongoing competition by synthetic foams and fibres.

In the medium term, total exports are expected to continue increasing at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in line with global demand and consumption trends in the established market destinations such as the United States and the EU.

Exports of manufactures are projected to grow by 1.53 percent per annum to 86 000 tonnes in 2010, while exports of fibre are expected to remain approximately stable.

Hard fibres: issues and uncertainties

In general, in the medium term, the supply of sisal is expected to move in line with demand, with producers being better able to plan production levels due to an increase in the use of long-term contracts between suppliers and manufacturers of non-traditional sisal products, such as composites for the automotive industry.

Niche applications of sisal in the manufacturing of higher value added products are expected to generate additional demand. Although the growth of demand for sisal destined for these applications is currently only partially offsetting the contraction of the traditional outlets of sisal, further developments in the field of non-conventional materials may result in reversing the negative trend in the sisal market.

For abaca and coir, demand will also depend on the expansion of markets for non-traditional products.

Research financed by the Common Fund for Commodities, aimed at developing productive, quality-controlled processing technologies and focusing on high value added products, may enhance demand for non-traditional fibre products, thus leading to a hard fibre market expansion.

Table 2.77. Hard fibres: production, actual and projected

Table 2.78. Hard fibres:global exports, actual and projected