 | Rapid growth of selected Asian economies Lessons and implications for agriculture and food security China and India REGIONAL OFFICE FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC |
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ISBN 92-5-105508-4
ISSN 1819-4591
| For copies write to: | Purushottam K. Mudbhary Senior Policy Officer Policy Assistance Branch FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Maliwan Mansion, 39 Phra Atit Road Bangkok 10200 THAILAND Tel: (+66) 2 697 4236 Fax: (+66) 2 697 4445 E-mail: [email protected] |
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PART I:
China's rapid economic growth and its implications for agriculture and food security in China and the rest of the world
2. Retrospective of China's economy and agricultural and rural development
2.2 Structural changes in China's economy
2.2.1 Overall change in economic structure
2.3 Agricultural and rural development
2.3.1 Agricultural production growth
2.3.2 Structural changes in agricultural production.
2.3.3 Sources of production growth
2.3.4 Agricultural trade performance
2.3.7 The impacts of economic and agricultural growth on poverty
2.3.8 The main challenges for China's agricultural and rural development.
3. Prospects for China's economic growth in the future
3.2 Driving force prospective for economic growth
4. China's agriculture, food economy and sustainable economic growth
4.1 Major results from the baseline scenario
4.2 Major results from China's high GDP growth scenario
4.3 The impact of China's higher TFP growth.
5. Implications of China's rapid economic growth for the rest of the world
5.1 Major results from the baseline analysis
5.2 The implications of China's high economic growth
5.3 Implications of China's higher TFP growth
Appendices: Methodology, data and assumptions
A1. The Global Trade Analysis Project
A3. Assumptions under different scenarios
A3.2 China's high GDP growth scenario
A3.3 China's higher TFP growth
1. Net export of agriculture as percentage of world trade under the baseline, 2001–2020
2. Net export of agriculture as percentage of world output under the baseline, 2001–2020
1. Rural poverty in China, 1978–2004
4. The adjusted own-price and income elasticities for China
5. Comparison of I-O parameters (%) in the original GTAP and adjusted ones
6. The assumptions on annual growths (%) of China's factor endowment and capital stock under the baseline in 2002–2005
7. Summary of import and export tariff equivalent in China, 2001–2020
8. The national import and export share of different commodities in different regions in 2001
Tables
1. The annual growth rates (%) of China's economy, 1970–2004
2. Changes in structure (%) of China's economy, 1970–2004
3. The annual growth rates (%) of the agricultural economy, 1970–2004
4. Changes in structure (%) of China's agricultural economy, 1970–2004
5. Shares of crop-sown areas, 1970–2004
6. Structure of China's food and feed trade, 1980–2002
7. Per capita supply and sources of calories, protein and fat per day in China, 1961–2000
8. Projection of China's economy, 2001–2020
9. Previous projections of China's GDP growth in China in the early 21st century
10. Self-sufficiency level (%) in different scenarios in 2020
11. China's trade shares (%) in the world in 2020
12. Agriculture and food trade in other countries/regions with China, 2001–2020
13. Net export of energy, mineral, textile and apparel, manufactory and services to China
14. Percentage output changes in different regions in 2020 due to China's higher economic growth (compared to baseline)
15. Welfare change in different regions in 2020 due to China's higher economic growth (compared to baseline)
16. The world price change in 2020 (compared to baseline) (%)
Boxes
2. Agricultural productivity and technology in China
3. Rural enterprise development in China
Figures
1. Poverty incidence (%) in rural China, 1978–2004
2. Annual growth rate (%) of GDP, 1979–2004
3. Inward FDI in China (US$ billion), 1979–2004
4. Agricultural trade balance by land-intensive and labour-intensive products
5. Level of participation in farming and non-farming activities, 1980–2000
6. China's GDP share (%) in the world, 2001–2020.
7. Self-sufficiency level (%) of agriculture under baseline, 2001–2020
8. Agriculture and food trade under baseline, 2001–2020
9. Self-sufficiency rates of non-agricultural sectors in China, 2001–2020
10. Net exports of non-agricultural sectors in China, 2001–2020
11. China's net export change: high growth scenario compared to the baseline in 2020
12. Net export of food and natural resource products under high growth and high TFP scenarios in China in 2020
13. Percentages of China's net export in world total production under high GDP growth and high technology scenarios in 2020
14. Annual growth rates (%) of GDP in China, 1981–2020
PART II:
Indian agriculture and scenario for 2020
2. Economy and agricultural economy: growth and deceleration
2.5 Trends in the agriculture sector
2.5.3 Phase 3 and the agricultural anomaly
2.6 The reason for deceleration
3.5 Consumption of agricultural products
3.6 Production of agricultural commodities
3.8 Production, consumption and surpluses
4.6 Technology development and access.
5. Current efforts for agricultural and rural development
6. International trade: multilateral, bilateral trade and potential impact
6.2 South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and agriculture
6.3 India's trade in agricultural commodities and potential impact
Appendix 2 Methodology, data and assumptions
Appendix 3 India and international trade of agricultural commodities
Tables
2. Growth rates in area, production and productivity of crop groups (annual percentage change).
3. Distribution of landholdings (% of total holdings and total area)
4. Compounded annual rates of growth of production and yield
6. Gross capital formation in agriculture at 1993–1994 prices
7. Growth of macroeconomic variables
8. Income elasticities across quintiles
9. Sensitivity to prices — own price elasticities
10. Consumption estimates (million tonnes/year)
12. Assumptions: the growth rate of exogenous variables of India in four stages (per year %)
13. Likely production and consumption in 2020
14. Net export share of world export in value terms (%)
15. Number of regulated markets
16. Progress in amending APMC Acts (as of January 2006)
17. India's exports of agricultural products, 2003–2004 (US$ millions)
18. Net export share of world export (%)
Boxes
5. NDDB initiative — efficient terminal markets for horticultural produce
6. Biofuel — an alternative approach to wasteland management
Figures
1. Trends in sectoral output — net domestic product
2. Population 2001–2015 (figures in '000s).
4. Trend in yield of major crops
5a. Export/import earnings for selected agricultural commodities
5b. Export/import earnings for selected agricultural commodities
