CFS:2002/2

Table of Contents

SUMMARY

I. FOOD AND NUTRITION STATUS

A. CURRENT SITUATION

B. HUNGER HOTSPOTS

II. MONITORING THE OTHER DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY

A. AVAILABILITY AND STABILITY OF SUPPLY

B. ACCESS TO AVAILABLE SUPPLIES

III. FOOD SAFETY

IV. SELECTED KEY ISSUES: FOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT

A. FOOD AID FLOWS

B. TOWARDS A TWIN-TRACK STRATEGY

ANNEX TABLE I: Food, Nutrition and Health Indicators

ANNEX TABLE II: Cereal Import Dependancy and Self-sufficiency for selected aggregates

ANNEX TABLE III: Economic Access Indicators

SUMMARY

1. The change in the prevalence and numbers of undernourished, by sub-region, since 1990-92 is briefly discussed. Comments are made on the differences in the estimates for the two most recent three-year periods, i.e. 1996-98 and 1997-99. The results of a World Health Organization (WHO) study on the prevalence of stunting amongst preschool children, with a focus on the regional differences are also presented.

2. The main hunger hotspots in 2001/2002 are also highlighted. Of the 29 countries facing food emergencies this year, 16 are found in Africa, 9 in Asia and 2 in Europe.

3. Access issues are discussed with respect to physical stocks and economic access. The six physical food supply indicators of food security are presented and discussed. It is clear that the volume of food imports have increased substantially in both the developing and the LIFDC countries since the mid-1990s. Although cereals and dairy imports declined in the mid-1990s, following significant international price hikes, the imported volume recovered in recent years for both commodity groups. The food import bill of developing countries, after declining steadily since the mid-1990s, is estimated to have risen over the past two years by more than 10 percent during 2000 and nearly 3 percent in 2001.

4. The prospects for various regions achieving the millennium development goal of halving poverty levels from that of 1990 by 2015 under differing growth scenarios, as assessed by a recent World Bank study are summarily presented. Growth in equality, claculated with the use of a new method, is also highlighted in this paper. The World Bank study clearly shows that differences in income among citizens of the world are huge and far higher than conventional measures indicate.

5. Next, an update on the situation with regard to food safety is provided. The idea of a framework document outlining FAO's strategies for ensuring access to safe and nutritious food that would address key elements of policy advice, capacity building and technical assistance, and actions that need to be taken at national and those to be taken at international level is proposed for consideration by the Committee in view of the increasing importance of the subject to developed and developing countries alike.

6. In the final part two special issues are discussed in the context of food for development. Total cereal shipments in 2000/01, under programme and project food aid as well as emergency food aid, amounted to 8.5 million tonnes (in grain equivalent), nearly 3 million tonnes, or 24 percent, smaller than in 1999/2000, largely because of a sharp cut-back in shipments to the Russian Federation. This is significantly above the 5 million tonnes envisaged under the 1999 Food Aid Convention. More than half were used to meet emergencies.

7. Finally two recent pilot projects that may contribute to creating a synergy between direct action against hunger and measures to stimulate agriculture and the rural sector as part of a twin-track strategy are highlighted. A case is made for the creation of "maximum synergy" through supplying safety nets with locally produced food whenever possible thus leading to an expansion in market opportunities, farm output and employment, while providing food to those who need it.

I. FOOD AND NUTRITION STATUS

A. CURRENT SITUATION

8. The latest FAO estimate of undernourished people in the world puts the figure at 815 million in the period 1997-99¹. This total was comprised of 777 million in the developing countries, 27 million in transition countries and 11 million in the industrialised countries.

9. For the developing countries the latest figures represent a decrease of 39 million since 1990-92 (the benchmark period used at the World Food Summit). This implies an annual average decrease of 6 million. But to achieve the World Food Summit goal of halving the number of undernourished in developing countries by 2015, the average annual decrease required is 22 million - well above the level of performance in the early post summit years.

10. The overall progress achieved in decreasing the number of undernourished in the developing world between 1990-92 and 1997-99 also hides sharply contrasting trends in individual countries. Some countries have made outstanding progress, while some have moved forward more slowly or stood still. Still others, however, have suffered reverses, in most cases moderate but occasionally severe. In all, only 32 of the 99 developing countries covered by this assessment² recorded a decrease in their numbers of undernourished between 1990-92 and 1997-99. The total reduction achieved by this group amounted to 116 million people. This compares with a total increase of 77 million recorded for the countries in which the number of undernourished actually increased. Because the first group includes several large countries, such as China, Indonesia and Thailand in Asia and Nigeria in Africa, the total reduction achieved outweighed the total increase in the second, numerically larger group of countries. Hence the net reduction of 39 million.

11. When the number of undernourished is considered as a proportion of a country's total population, instead of in absolute terms, the picture is somewhat different. The proportion actually fell in the majority (58) of developing countries. However, this finding should not be interpreted too optimistically, since in 18 of these countries the fall coincided with a rise in absolute numbers. The decrease in the proportion of undernourished in these countries has not been sufficient to offset the effect of population growth. Continuing rapid rises in the number of mouths to feed imply further difficulties in meeting the World Food Summit target.

12. All other things being equal, changes in a country's number of undernourished will be proportional to the size of its population - the larger the population, the larger the increase or decrease that may be expected. But population also plays a confounding role in the statistics on undernourishment. While a rise in the proportion of undernourished implies a rise in their absolute number, a decline in the proportion does not necessarily imply a fall in number. A high population growth rate, for example, may result in absolute numbers increasing. Thus, changes in the proportion of undernourished provide a measure of performance that is independent of the influence of population growth.

13. At the regional level, Table 1 shows that Sub-Saharan Africa, which has the highest percentage of undernourished, has shown little progress in reducing the prevalence of undernourishment between 199092 and 1997-99. In the Near East and North Africa region the prevalence of undernourishement actually increased by one percentage point in the same period. In contrast, the East and South East Asian region made significant progress by almost halving the prevalence of hunger in less than a decade whilst South Asia reduced prevalence by two percentage points. The situation in Latin America and the Caribbean has been rather constant in the last seven years. However, it should be noted that conditions are remarkably better in this region as compared to others.

14. On a year to year basis we can observe that South Asia witnessed a reversal in the decline of the prevalence of undernourished by a percentage point while there was no change in prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean between the periods 1996-98 and 1997-1999. East and South East Asia reduced their prevalence significantly from 13 to 10 percent whilst the Neart East and North Africa also registered a positive rate reduction of 1 percentage point. For developing countries as a whole there was a one percentage point reduction in the prevalence of undernutrition from 18 percent in 1996-98 to 17 percent in 1997-99.

Table 1: Percentage of Population Undernourished in the Developing Regions

   Source: SOFI, 2001

15. The most recent information on five core indicators selected by the Committee on World Food Security for monitoring food and nutrition outcomes related to the World Food Summit goals (percentage of population undernourished, average per person dietary energy supply (DES), life expectancy at birth, under five mortality, and proportion of children under five that are underweight) is reported for each developing country/ country in transition in Annex Table 1. Except for DES, these are also among those selected for monitoring progress towared the Millenium Development goals for reducing extreme poverty and hunger. However, for reporting on nutrition status, this document uses another indicator of child malnutrition, that of prevalence of stunting among children under five, for which better data is available.

16. Although many surveys of child malnutrition exist, the lack of compararbility between them has made it difficult to monitor trends on a regional and global level. To rectify this situation, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recently analysed 241 national representative surveys and produced comparable results of low height-for-age (stunting) and generated regional and global trends from 1980 to 2005³.

17. The results (see Table 2) indicate that the prevalence of stunting has fallen progressively in developing countries from 47 % in 1980 to 33 % in 2000, amounting to a total decline of more than 40 million to an estimated total of 180 million in 2000, in spite of population increases over the same period. The data indicate that 70% of the stunted children live in Asia, 26 % in Africa and about 4 % in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Table 2. Prevalence of stunting in preschool children, by region, and total number stunted in developing and developed countries over the period 1980 to 2005 (%)

   Source: Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2000, 78(10).

   *: (includes Iran in addition to Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka).

18. Progress has been uneven. Eastern Africa is the only region to exhibit an increase in the average prevalence of stunting (0.08 percentage points per year). All other sub-regions showed decreases, ranging from 0.06 percentage points to 0.98 percentage points per year. South Eastern Asia, South Central Asia and South America peformed particularly well. On the other hand Northern Africa and the Caribbean showed modest progress whilst Western and Central America showed very little improvement.

B. HUNGER HOTSPOTS

19. While overall food supply prospects for 2002 are more favourable than in the past two years, million (s) of people in developing countries still need emergency food assistance due to natural and man-made disasters. In eastern Africa, the overall food supply situation has improved considerably compared to the previous year. However, nearly 11 million people affected by drought and/or conflict in the sub-region still depend on food assistance. In Southern Africa, the outlook for the 2002 cereal crops is uncertain due to a dry spell in parts. Serious food shortages have emerged in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe where food assistance is urgently needed. In western Africa, the food outlook is generally satisfactory except in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone where internally displaced people and refugees continue to need food assistance.

20. In Asia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, despite a marked recovery in 2001 cereal production, will still need food assistance in 2002 to meet the country's minimum food requirements. In Mongolia, the harshness of the current winter poses a serious threat to the already fragile food situation of thousands of herder families who lost animals in previous two winters. The food situation in Afghanistan remains grave, notwithstanding the relative calm and improved delivery of food assistance. WFP assistance is presently reaching as many as 6.6 million people. The serious food situation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is also of particular concern.

21. In Central America, despite the good harvests of second season crops, the food supply situation continues to be difficult in El Salvador and parts of Guatemala. The sub-region was severely affected by drought in 2001 which damaged the first season crops. Food assistance continues to be provided by the international community. In South America, excessive rains and flooding in Argentina, the worst in living memory, inflicted serious damage to the wheat and maize crops.

22. Early indications for the 2002 winter cereals in the EC point to a significant recovery in the wheat area after last year's reduced plantings. In central and eastern European countries winter weather conditions have been generally satisfactory. In the Russian Federation total grain production increased by 20 million tonnes in 2001 compared with the preceding year. However, civil strife and military operations in Chechnya continue to disrupt agricultural activities. Food assistance continues to be provided by the international community to internally displaced and other vulnerable people.

23. In Cook Islands, the food supply situation has been adversely affected by tropical storm "Trina". Some of the islands are threatened by an infestation of the destructive fruit fly. The island of Tonga was hit by tropical storm "Waka", causing enormous damage to housing, infrastructure and crops. The Government has appealed for assistance from the international community.

Table 3: Countries Facing Food Emergencies in early 2001/2002 and Principal Reasons

   Source: FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.1 - February 2002 p. 3

II. MONITORING THE OTHER DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY

A. AVAILABILITY AND STABILITY OF SUPPLY

24. Changes in the global food security indicators are summarised in Table 4. In order to monitor and assess the potential for the five major wheat and coarse grain exporters to meet the global import demand for those grains, FAO uses the ratio of the sum of their production, imports and opening stocks to the their total domestic utilisation plus exports. For 2001/2002, this ratio was forecast at 1.17, down slightly from the previous season but close to the average of the past five years. The ratio's anticipated small decline from the previous season was largely driven by a sharp fall in total grain production in major exporting countries, which was seen to only partially, hence not fully, compensate for a contraction in aggregate domestic grain utilization as well as the overall exports.

25. Another measure of the exporters' potential to meet world import demand is the ratio of the projected ending stocks in the major exporting countries to total disappearance (i.e. domestic consumption plus exports). In order to capture the supply and demand dynamics of the world trade, this indicator also includes rice along with coarse grains and wheat.

26. To begin with the latter, aggregate wheat stocks in major exporting countries by the close of the seasons in 2002 were forecast to decline by some 11 million tonnes to 41 million tonnes. This decline was also reflected in a notable reduction of the ratio of their aggregate stocks to their total disappearance, which fell to 18.2 percent. This was a relatively low ratio compared to 22.2 percent in the previous season but still significantly above the average observed in the second half of the 1990s. However, large supplies resulting from good harvests in many other countries, in Europe as well as in Asia were expected to largely offset any negative impact on global wheat supplies resulting from smaller stocks held by its major exporters.

27. Coarse grain stocks held by major exporters were also likely to decline, to 72 million tonnes, down 9 million tonnes from the previous season. At this level, the ratio of major exporters' stocks to their total disappearance was expected to drop to 16.3 percent, down considerably from 18.4 percent in 2000/01 but, similar to wheat, significantly above the levels in the late 1990s. This reduction was mostly triggered by a contraction of inventories in the United States, following a cut in 2001 production.

28. Rice holdings by major rice exporting countries were also anticipated to shrink in 2002, to around 102 million tonnes, the lowest level in the past ten year. As a result, the ratio of rice stocks held by major rice exporters to their total disappearance was expected to drop to 55 percent, high compared with the wheat and coarse grain ratios, but well below the previous season's rice ratio and smaller than the average in the second half of the 1990s. However, much of this sharp reduction in rice stocks was expected to concentrate in China, one of the five major rice exporting countries.

29. The third indicator measures changes in cereal production among the major cereal importing countries of China, India and the CIS against the trend and the preceding year. For 2001, the indicator points to an increase by more than 4 percent after a sharp reduction in the previous year. While cereal production fell slightly in China and India, the total decline was more than offset by larger harvests in a number of CIS countries, especially in the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

30. The focus of the fourth and fifth indicators is on changes in aggregate cereal production of the Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), which includes the countries most vulnerable to fluctuations in food supplies and international prices. For the second consecutive year, total cereal production in this group of countries contracted, although the decline was much less pronounced in 2001 than in 2000. Most of this decrease was caused by reductions in cereal output in China and India, while the overall production in most other countries showed little change, or even increased, over the previous year. In fact, due to the important weight of China and India, as major cereal producers, the sixth indicator measures the changes in aggregate cereal production of the LIFDCs excluding those two countries. Using this measure, aggregate cereal output for this group of countries actually registered a strong growth of more than 3 percent in 2001, mainly thanks to larger harvests in North Africa as well as several countries in Asia.

31. Finally, the sixth indicator provides a comparison of export prices for the major cereals. Except for rice, international cereal prices during the first 7 months of the 2001/02 marketing season averaged above the quoted prices during the corresponding period in 2000/01. International wheat prices moved only slightly higher, despite stagnation in global production and, even more importantly, a sharp drop in output among the major wheat exporting countries. On the whole, the unusual low wheat exports from the EC should have provided the stimulus for stronger prices, but excess supplies in the Central and Eastern European countries, as well as India and Pakistan, continued to put pressure on international prices. For coarse grains, international prices for maize demonstrated some recovery during the first half of 2001/02 marketing season, although the rise in production and the exceptionally large export supplies from a number of non-traditional exporters, such as Brazil, also continued to weigh on coarse grain markets. International rice prices all followed a declining trend despite a contraction in global production for the second consecutive year, as large inventories built up during the four seasons of record crops between 1996 and 1999, provided a buffer to meet consumption requirements. The decline was contained somewhat by government intervention purchases in major exporting countries, such as Thailand, and restrictions on exports in Vietnam. These measures were not sufficient to arrest the price slide as cheap supplies were released for export from India's public stocks.

32. The food import bill of developing countries, after declining steadily since the mid-1990s, is estimated to have risen over the past two years by more than 10 percent during 2000 and nearly 3 percent in 2001 (see Table 5). The bulk of the increase is attributed to substantial rises in expenditures on most commodities, except for cereals and sugar. For the LIFDCs, on the other hand, food expenditures have been relatively stable, averaging around $33 billion during the 1996-2001 period. The largest increase was for dairy products (nearly 50%).

33. In order to complement the assessment summarised above, Table 6 presents the imports of basic food commodities in the form of volume indices (using the 1991/94 average as the base period). It is clear that the volume of food imports have increased substantially into both the developing and the LIFDCs since the mid-1990s (see Annex Table II for details of dependency and self-sufficiency levels). Although cereals and dairy imports declined in the mid-1990s, following significant international price hikes, the imported volume recovered in recent years for both commodity groups. The commodity groups experiencing the largest increases over the entire period have been meat and sugar, in both developing and LIFDCs. As for the value of imports of oilcrops, the rapid increases for both groups of countries were reversed over the past two years.

B. ACCESS TO AVAILABLE SUPPLIES

34. It is generally accepted that economic access to food is one of the most critical constraint to eradicating hunger. Despite there being sufficient stocks of food to technically meet the requirements of the entire global population hunger is likely to persist as long as poverty prevails.

35. According to the World Bank estimates, the global economy , in the most probable scenario, will begin to recover in mid-2002, probably starting in the United States and then spreading to Europe and elsewhere. Due to the slowdown of global economic activity in the industrial countries the aggregate growth for developing countries is being adversely effected and expected to weaken from 5.5 percent in 2000 to 2.9 percent in 2001. It is expected to be further restrained to 3.7 percent in 2002 due to slow recovery in the OECD area. However, stronger recovery is expected in the advanced economies by 2003 which will enable developing countries to reach growth rates of 5.2 percent but with considerable regional variations.

36. The Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean regions have been the hardest hit by the deteriorating global economy in 2001. Economic prospects for the Middle East and North Africa are expected to deteriorate further in 2002 as oil prices continue to fall and other commodity prices drop relative to the cost of manufactures imports. East Asia and the Pacific is expected to be the first among regions to show a recovery in exports in late 2001 and early 2002, as the group was the first to suffer from the collapse in high-tech trade flows. South Asia is expected to experience a less pronounced cycle due to its weaker links with the global economy but its GDP growth at 4.5 percent in 2001 corresponded to the 1997 low.

37. In its report: Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2002, the World Bank has claculated and demonstrated the benefits to developing countries from further trade liberalization. The poor, who work primarily in agriculture and labour intensive manufactures are at a disadvantage as trade barriers in the form of tariffs and subsidies in the high-income countries keep out products from developing countries. Subsidies and other support to agriculture in the high-income countries "are now running roughly $1 billion a day - or more than six times all development assistance." The study also showed that with faster growth through enhanced trade integration measures the world would have 14 percent fewer people living in poverty in 2015 than the business-as-usual scenario. In addition, through lowering barriers to merchandise trade some $1.5 trillion additional income could accrue to the developing countries over the 2005-2015 period. And the liberalization of services in developing countries is seen as a source for as much as four times larger than this amount.

38. Whilst growth is of paramount importance for the reduction of poverty and hunger it has to be of the right type - one that enhances the incomes of the poor considerably relative to the wealthy. Information on income and its growth and distribution has been presented in Annex Table III. It is disturbing to note that a large number of studies indicate the growing disparities in the income between and within countries.

39. According to Branco Milanovic⁴ global inequality has risen fast. The differences in income among citizens of the world are huge and far higher than conventional measures indicate. His calculations of global inequality show, for example, that the richest 1% of people in the world receive as much as the bottom 57%; in other words, less than 50 million richest people receive as much as the 2.7 billion poorest people. In addition to being very high, global inequality is rising. For example, in a mere five-year period between 1988 and 1993, inequality increased by 5% with the real incomes of the poorest 5% of people in the world decreasing while the real incomes of the top 20% increased.

40. For the first time ever, inequality among people in the world was calculated as if they all belonged to the same `nation' called the world. Household surveys, which are the source of information on incomes and inequality within each country, were combined to derive the `true' world income distribution. Such surveys were taken for 91 countries in the world, covering 85% of the world's population and 95% of world income.

41. Previous studies have calculated world inequality as the difference between average incomes (GDP per capita) of the countries, disregarding inequality in distribution within each country. Implicitly, such studies assume that each Chinese person had the average income of China, each American the average income of the US. Milanovic estimates inequality among citizens of the world at 66 Gini points, on a scale that runs from 0 (total equality) to 100 (one person gets all world income). The level of 66 is higher than inequality in any single country: the world is a more unequal place than countries with the highest inequality, each taken alone. This level of inequality is equivalent to a situation where 66% of people have zero income, and 34% divide the entire income of the world among themselves equally.

42. The last decade was characterised by significant declines in poverty rates driven by high rates of growth in many countries. In China, which had a fourth of the world's poor, in the 1990s GDP per capita grew by 9.5 percent per year⁵. The World Bank has projected the number of extreme poor (those living on less than $1 per day) as presented in Table 7. In the base case projection, developing countries are expected to maintain average GDP per capita growth of 3.7 percent per year after the recovery from the financial crisis. If they do, the goal of reducing poverty rates to half their 1990 level will be achieved in all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa. However, if their GDP per capita growth averages 2.3 percent per year (the low case) the world will fall short of the goal - and only East Asia will achieve the goal of halving the poverty prevalence. And if growth falls back to the average of the 1990s (1.7 percent per year) the poverty rate will decline even more slowly.

43. Even if global poverty rates were halved by 2015 the number of people living in extreme poverty would fall only by a third. China and India will see the largest improvements but Sub-Saharan Africa will experience a rise. In Europe and central Asia, where the number of extremely poor rose during the transition period, a return to the 1990 levels of poverty is predicted. Even under the most optimistic assumptions, in 2015 there are likely to be 2.3 billion people living on less than $2 a day, which is representative of extreme poverty in many middle-income countries.

Table 7: Projection of Poverty in 2015 (Number and percentage of people living on less than one dollar a day by region)

   Source: World Bank (2001), Global Economic Propsects and the Developing Countries 2001.

III. FOOD SAFETY

44. The right of everyone to have access to safe and nutritious food is affirmed in the opening statement of the Rome Declaration on World Food Security. There is a vicious circle between malnutrition, foodborne diseases and food security. Safe and nutritious food of adequate quality to meet consumers' expectations is no longer a luxury of the rich but a right of all people.

45. In the 5 years since the WFS, public awareness of food safety issues has increased dramatically, especially in developed countries. Coupled with the public awareness of food safety issues, international and domestic markets need to cope with the increasing demands for food that meets consumers' expectations in terms of quality, safety and nutritional benefit. This changing situation means both challenges and opportunities for the food and agriculture sector including fisheries. With the expansion of food and agricultural trade, food-borne diseases are more easily and rapidly transmitted across borders. The agreements under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to eliminate unjustified trade barriers have given momentum to efforts for the harmonisation of food standards between countries. The Codex Alimentarius Commission is the reference point for international food standards of food quality and safety.

46. Since the WFS, increasing pressure has been placed on governments and the international organizations to provide assurances that food meets consumers' legitimate expectations. FAO has continued to support the science-based approach to international standard setting, particularly within the context of WTO rules for sanitary and phytosanitary measures and has expanded its traditional activities on the evaluation of additives and residues to microbiological contamination of food and to foods derived from biotechnology. A paper on "Biosecurity in Food and Agriculture"⁶ was submitted to the 16^th Session of the FAO Committee on Agriculture (COAG) in 2001 proposing an integrated approach to risk assessment-based policy and regulatory frameworks to manage risks (including food safety risks) associated with agriculture and food production. The PAIA (Priority Areas for Interdisciplinary Action) for Biosecurity for Agriculture and Food Production is implementing the recommendations of COAG.

47. To promote an exchange of information and experience between food safety regulators in developed and developing countries, FAO and WHO convened the first Global Forum of Food Safety Regulators in Morocco in January 2002 and a Pan-European Conference on Food Quality and Safety in Hungary in February 2002. Similar conferences are also envisaged for other regions. FAO, WHO and the UNU held an Expert Consultation on Human Energy Requirements in October 2001 that will help in determining the levels of caloric adequacy and in turn on the estimates of the numbers of food insecure people globally. An Expert Consultation on Proteins in Human Nutrition is scheduled for April 2002. The role of diet and nutrition in the development of non-communicable diseases both in the developed and increasingly in the developing world was deliberated upon jointly with WHO in January 2002. The implications for ensuring quality and nutritious diets to promote health are enormous.

48. Providing safe and nutritious food to consumers everywhere requires a commitment to quality throughout food and agriculture sector. Food producers, handlers and marketers have the opportunity to benefit from investment and technical development in food safety and quality to meet the consumer-driven demands on the sector. The opportunity exists to reap better returns for value-added products and to reduce quantitative and qualitative losses throughout the food chain. This will require programmes of capacity-building and technical assistance covering a farm (or sea) to table systems-management approach to food quality and safety and will involve rural development planners, extension services, veterinary and fisheries services, academic institutions, regulatory authorities and civil society organizations.

49. The CFS may wish to confirm that food security requires, inter alia, access to safe and nutritious food and that this requires a responsible approach to production, harvesting, processing and marketing practices throughout the food chain. On this basis, the CFS may wish to request the Director-General to submit to the COFI, COAG and CFS in 2003 a framework document outlining FAO's strategies for ensuring access to safe and nutritious food that would address key elements of policy advice, capacity building and technical assistance, and actions that need to be taken at national and those to be taken at international level.

IV. SELECTED KEY ISSUES: FOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT

A. FOOD AID FLOWS ⁷

50. Total cereal food aid shipments in 2001/02 (July/June) was forecast to reach 9.5 million tonnes (in grain equivalent), up 1 million tonnes from 2000/01. This increase was likely to be met mainly by larger donations from the United States and Japan, while Pakistan and India, usually among food aid recipient countries, could also emerge as donors this season. The anticipated increase in food aid shipments can be partly explained by larger needs in Afghanistan, but concerns over weak international prices and relatively large stocks in some countries could also be considered as important factors.

51. While the overall global food situation in 2001/02 was generally better than in the previous season, many countries continued to face emergencies and demand for food aid remains strong. In particular, food aid shipments to Afghanistan were expected to increase sharply. Even before the start of the military operations, Afghanistan was gripped by critical food crisis following three consecutive years of severe drought. Among other countries in Asia, food aid flows to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Bangladesh were expected to remain substantial, although less than in the previous year. In Africa, despite better harvests in several countries, civil strife and localized crop failures in many areas was expected to keep food aid needs at high levels. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the food situation was also seen as precarious in many parts, mostly because of natural disasters; and shipments to several countries, including Honduras, Cuba, Peru and Nicaragua were expected to exceed the previous year's levels.

52. As of December 2001, according to the information supplied by the WFP, total cereal shipments in 2000/01, under programme and project food aid as well as emergency food aid, amounted to 8.5 million tonnes (in grain equivalent), nearly 3 million tonnes, or 24 percent, smaller than in 1999/2000, largely because of a sharp cut back in shipments to the Russian Federation. Even at this reduced level, food aid shipments by major donors exceeded the "minimum commitments", agreed under the 1999 Food Aid Convention (FAC). It should be noted that the 1999 FAC sets the global minimum "guaranteed annual tonnage" at around 5 million tonnes (in wheat equivalent). As in the previous season, emergency food aid constituted about one-half of the total shipments.

53. The decline in cereal food aid shipments in 2000/01 was most pronounced in terms of wheat, which fell by about 2.6 million tonnes. Coarse grain shipments also declined, by over 400 000 tonnes. By contrast, those of rice rose by more than 300 000 tonnes. Total cereal shipments as food aid to the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), as a group, fell slightly in 2000/01, to 7.4 million tonnes or some 160 000 tonnes smaller than in 1999/2000.

54. Cereal food aid from the United States fell by around 2.5 million tonnes in 2000/01 to 4.7 million tonnes; shipments to the Russian Federation fell from 1.9 million tonnes provided in 1999/2000 to only 127 000 tonnes. However, even at this reduced level, the United States was the largest donor, contributing to more than 55 percent of global shipments in 2000/01. Cereal aid shipments from a number of other major donors, including the EC and Canada, also registered a sharp decline in 2000/01. The fall from the EC was most pronounced, as total shipments declined by over 33 percent, to 1.5 million tonnes. Most of the decline was associated with lower shipments to the Russian Federation and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. By contrast, shipments from Japan rose by more than two-fold, to 720 000 tonnes, largely because of increased rice donations to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

55. Following a surge to a near record volume in 1999, total shipments of non-cereals as food aid in 2000(January-December)⁸ fell to 1.2 million tonnes, representing a decline of 700 000 tonnes, or 38 percent. Most of the decline was due to a sharp reduction in shipments from the United States to the Russian Federation, which more than offset larger aid contributions from Canada and several countries in Europe. Total shipments of non-cereals to the Russian Federation soared to over 1 million tonnes in 1999, but then fell to 93 000 tonnes in 2000. Total shipments to the LIFDCs, as a group, exceeded 890 000 tonnes, up 32 percent from 1999. This increase reflected larger shipments to several countries, including Indonesia, Ethiopia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Eritrea and Yemen.

56. Smaller shipments of pulses accounted for most of the reduction in total non-cereal donations in 2000. Pulse shipments were halved to 586 000 tonnes from 1.2 million tonnes in 1999, as shipments to the Russian Federation fell from 750 000 tonnes in 1999 to only 32 000 tonnes in 2000. The shipments of meat (including meat products), another important non-cereal food aid category, also contracted in 2000. Overall, the volume of meat as food aid increased from 4 000 tonnes in 1998 to 234 000 tonnes in 1999 but then fell to 25 000 tonnes in 2000. Similar to the pulse situation, the decline in meat shipments was mostly related to a reduction in food aid to the Russian Federation. By contrast, food aid shipments of vegetable oils rose to a 7-year high in 2000 to around 377 000 tonnes, up 18 percent from 1999. As many as 100 countries around the world receive vegetable oils in the form of food aid. The largest recipients in 2000 included Peru, the Russian Federation, Ethiopia, India, Madagascar, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Higher shipments to Peru, the Russian Federation and Ethiopia accounted for the bulk of the rise in total shipments in 2000.

B. TOWARDS A TWIN-TRACK STRATEGY

57. Creating a synergy between direct action against hunger and measures to enhance sustainable livelihoods for the poor through stimulation of agriculture and the rural sector is fundamental to a twin-track strategy for reducing and eventually eliminating food insecurity and malnutrition . The two tracks are complementary. Hungry people must have better access to adequate food as a precondition for their participation in development. At the same time, increases in agricultural productivity and production will increase rural economic activity and improve income-generating opportunities for the rural poor in both the farm and rural non-farm sectors.

58. A case of "maximum synergy" is one in which safety nets and food assistance programmes are supplied with local production: supplying safety nets with locally produced food whenever possible will lead to an expansion in market opportunities, farm output and employment, while providing food to those who need it.

59. In this context it is worthwhile noting two pilot projects: FAO's collaborative project with WFP: "Emergency Support for Improved Local Food Supply Through Voucher-Based Food for Work Projects in Drought-Affected Areas of Eastern Kenya"; and the WFP/ MS Swaminathan Research Foundation project: "Community Food Banks Programme in India". In both projects NGOs are playing a lead role in all the key stages of the project cycle, ranging from identification of beneficiaries to implementation and disbursement of the food or vouchers.

60. The collaborative pilot project between FAO and WFP will implement voucher payment based food-for-work (FFW) projects in Mbeere and Tharaka districts. The community driven projects will be directed towards increasing local food security through improved crop farming practices. The project is based on the belief that it is more sustainable to revive the normal food markets in the target areas by increasing local consumer spending power, rather than through distributing food directly. The increased purchasing power could be provided to beneficiary communities through FFW projects, which pay workers with food vouchers rather than food. The beneficiaries would then exchange the vouchers for food of their choice at local markets, and the traders then reimbursed with cash.

61. To combat the common problem of transitory food insecurity during 3 to 6 months in a year, WFP and the MS Swaminathan Foundation have developed a proposal for the pilot establishment of community foodbanks (500 in total) in each district of the five states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Orissa in India⁹. Districts were purposively selected as representative of the food insecure, with distinct hunger periods, populated by a dominant tribal population and in receipt of Food for Work support.

62. The main aim of food for work is to use poor people's most abundant resource, their own labour, to create employment and income and to build the infrastructure necessary for sustained development. Careful and strategic provision of food to the most needy helps the hungry escape from the poverty trap. Only by investing in people and their access to resources can we be sure they will remain food secure - in lean seasons as well as harvest times. Surplus food can be used to free the poor of the need to provide food for their families, giving them time and resources to invest in lasting assets such as better houses, clinics and schools, new agricultural skills and technology and, ultimately, a better future.

63. Targeted interventions are needed to help to improve the lives of the poorest people - people who, either permanently or during crisis periods, are unable to produce enough food or do not have the resources to otherwise obtain the food that they and their households require for active and healthy lives. Food for work can be used to help build assets and promote the self-reliance of poor people and communities, particularly through labour-intensive works programmes. Communities should however be empowered to firstly identify the projects, with the relevant support of non-governmental organizations, and subsequently manage the projects. Construction of a simple bridge to link villages with a market town may help the poor more than the construction of a major road; a community-managed fish pond may be more relevant to their needs than a large irrigation scheme.

64. Although the manner in which the actual delivery of the food can be determined according to the location of the project it is generally desirable to make the scheme voucher based for two main reasons. Firstly it would avoid the complications and costs of handling food. Secondly it would enable the beneficiaries to select the food of their choice and retain the dignity that is lost when food is distributed. In addition a voucher based system would strengthen local markets and traders and eventually contribute to increased production of food within the country.

65. Certain projects that offer skills, gender-specific resource transfers, new assets or new technologies may not only address immediate hunger but also serve to reduce `hidden' constraints to voluntary migration in the longer run, or make the choice of `staying put' a more viable and sustainable one. Voucher based food transfers could be used to assist the food-insecure to save assets and preserve future livelihoods when food is short. Thus, voucher payment based food transfers can serve as a timely intervention designed to avert rather than respond to an emergency.

66. Households in marginal low-potential areas are as vulnerable as are the land they work and the resources they exploit. Investing in marginal, low-potential lands helps to avert crisis and lessen the impact of future disasters, and is likely to be more cost-effective than rehabilitation. It also reinforces the food security of a population living under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Timely access to food could assist households and communities make the necessary vital investment in critical conservation measures necessary to make their livelihood practices sustainable in the long term. Without such schemes they would be unable to do the needful immediately thus contributing to rapid and irreversible damages to their natural resource base.

67. Livelihood systems imply a concept of sustainable food security, where the benefits of today are balanced with the benefits of tomorrow. The objective is not only to preserve current patterns of consumption, but also to avoid destitution or sacrificing future standards of living. The means of resistance are the assets and entitltements that individuals, households and communities can mobilise and manage in the face of hardship. Vulnerability is closely linked to asset ownership. The more assets people have the less vulnerable they are, and the greater the erosion of people's assets, the greater their insecurity. Through targetted and well planned and implemented voucher based food transfers assets of individuals, households and communities could be built to enable them to cope with future shocks and setbacks.

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1 FAO (2001), State of Food Insecurity in the World, Rome.

2 This analysis excludes Ethiopia and Eritrea, which were not separate countries in the early 1990s. It also excludes the nine developing countries in which less than 2.5 percent of the population was undernourished in 1990-92.

3 M. de Onis, C. Monteiro, J. Akré, and G. Clugston (1993) The worldwide magnitude of protein-energy malnutrition: an overview from the WHO Global Database on Child Growth, Geneva. Cross-sectional data from 241 nationally representative surveys were analysed in a standard way to produce comparable results of low height-for-age (stunting). Multilevel modelling was applied to estimate regional and global trends from 1980 to 2005. Available data for these prevalences are based on surveys covering 94% of the total population of under-5-year-olds in Latin America, 90% in Asia, 77% in Africa, and 66% in Oceania.

4 Branko Milanovic (2002), True World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993: First Calcualtion Based on Household Surveys Alone, World Bank, Development Research Group.

5 World Bank (2001), 2001 World Development Indicators, page 4.

6 COAG 01/8.

7 More detailed statistics on cereal and non-cereal food aid shipments are available on the Internet as part of the FAO World Wide Web at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org under Statistical Database and then All Databases.

8 While cereal shipments are reported on a July/June basis, non-cereals food aid is reported on a calendar year basis.

9 FAO (2002), India: Community Food Banks Programme, TCI Draft.