Copyright © 1996 by FAO, Rome, Italy
Published 1996 by
John Wiley & Sons Ltd,
Baffins Lane, Chichester,
West Sussex PO19 1UD, England
National 01243 779777
International (+44) 1243 779777
e-mail (for orders and customer service enquiries): [email protected]
Visit our Home Page on http://www.wiley.co.uk or http://www.wiley.com
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The designations 'developed' and 'developing' economies are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country, territory or area in the development process.
ISBN 92-5-103987-9
Produced from camera-ready copy supplied by the editors
Printed in Great Britain by Bookcraft (Bath) Ltd
Edited by
FAKHRI BAZZAZ
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
WIM SOMBROEK
FAO, Rome, Italy
Published by the
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
and
JOHN WILEY & SONS
Chichester · New York · Brisbane · Toronto · Singapore
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher and the copyright owner.
Other Wiley Editorial Offices
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 605 Third Avenue,
New York, NY 10158-0012, USAJacaranda Wiley Ltd, 33 Park Road, Milton,
Queensland 4064, AustraliaJohn Wiley & Sons (Canada) Ltd, 22 Worcester Road,
Rexdale, Ontario M9W 1L1, CanadaJohn Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd, 2 Clementi Loop #02-01,
Jin Xing Distripark, Singapore 129809
|
Edited by Fakhri Bazzaz and Wim Sombroek This book reports on the results of experiments to assess the effects of global climate change on the agricultural production of crops and livestock. It covers issues such as the CO2 fertilization effect, the adverse effects of elevated levels of UV-B radiation and ozone on plant growth and productivity, and livestock. Combined effects are also studied, including changing CO2, temperature, and UV-B radiation and O3 simultaneously on crop growth. The concluding chapters give an idea of the overall global picture in terms of the effects already discussed. Changes in the world hydrological cycle, the regional availability of water resources, changes in soil conditions and the impact of this on food production, as well as modelling techniques, are all examined. |
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Global climate change and agricultural production: direct and indirect effects of changing hydrological soil and plant physiological processes/edited by Fakhri Bazzaz, Wim Sombroek. p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-471-95763-1
1. Climatic changes. 2. Agriculture. 3. Crops and climate. 4. Meteorology, Agricultural. I. Bazzaz, F. A. (Fakhri A.) II. Sombroek, Wim G. III. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. S600.7.C54G58 1996
338.1'4 - dc20 96-19503 CIP
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 0-471-95763-1 (cloth)
ISBN 0-471-96927-3 (paper)
Produced from camera-ready-copy supplied by the editors
Printed and bound in Great Britain by Bookcraft (Bath) Ltd
This book is printed on acid-free paper responsibly manufactured from sustainable forestation, for which at least two trees are planted for each one used for paper production.
This electronic document has been scanned using optical character recognition (OCR) software and careful manual recorrection. Even if the quality of digitalisation is high, the FAO declines all responsibility for any discrepancies that may exist between the present document and its original printed version.
1. The climate change - Agriculture conundrum
The world agricultural context
The changing agricultural environment
Plant physiological direct effects
The hydrological cycle and soils
Conclusions
References
2. The effects of changes in the world hydrological cycle on availability of water resources
Methods of evaluation
General circulation models
Hydrological models
Recent changes in global precipitation
Recent changes in global runoff
Conclusions
References
3. The effects of global change on soil conditions in relation to plant growth and food production
Possible changes in forcing variables
Effects of higher CO2 on soil fertility, physical conditions and productivity
Effects of rainfall and temperature changes in different climates
Processes in soils
Some properties of clay surfaces
Resilience against physical and chemical soil degradation
Resilience against soil reduction (anoxic conditions)
Soil reaction (pH)
Effects of a rising sea level on soils in coastal areas
Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
Overview of CO2 effects on plant growth processes
Specific responses of crops to elevated CO2
Summary of comprehensive reviews
Crop modelling: Predictions for the future
Summary and conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
5. The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature change on transpiration and crop water use
Water use and water-use efficiency
Response at the level of stomata
Effects at the level of the leaf
Effects at the plant and canopy level
Effects over the growing season
Effects on the regional vegetation-atmosphere water vapour exchange
Concluding remarks
Acknowledgements
References
6. Effects of higher day and night temperatures on growth and yields of some crop plants
Mechanisms for heat tolerance
Crop growth and development
Extreme temperature effects on crops
Long-term effects of high temperatures on crops
References
Effects of elevated surface-level UV-B radiation or O3 on crops
Effects of elevated UV-B radiation or O3 on the incidence of crop pests
Effects of elevated UV-B radiation or O3 on crop-weed competition
Considerations relevant to the study of crop responses to elevated levels of UV-B radiation and O3
Conclusions and future research directions
Acknowledgements
References
8. Combined effects of changing CO2 temperature, UV-B radiation and O3 on crop growth
Carbon dioxide
CO2 and temperature
CO2 and water availability
CO2 and ozone
CO2 and UV-B radiation
Ozone
Ozone and temperature
Ozone and water availability
Ozone and UV-B radiation
Concluding remarks
Acknowledgements
References
9. The potential effects of climate change on world food production and security
Study methods
Crop models and yield simulations
Modelling the world food system
An assessment of the world food system under alternative scenarios
Conclusions
References
10. Climate change, global agriculture and regional vulnerability
Impact assessment methodologies
Crops response estimates for different regions of the world
Global studies and their implications for regional effects
Regional vulnerability
Adaptation potential and policies
The technological potential to adapt
The socio-economic capability to adapt
References
Importance of feedbacks and linkages
Model approaches
Concluding remarks
Acknowledgements
References
Overview of the GCTE and focus 3 structures
Effects of global change on major food crops (a component of activity 3.1)
Improved pastures and rangelands (a component of activity 3.1)
Effects of global change on multi-species cropping systems (activity 3.4)
Experimental studies on the relationship between plant-based diversity and complexity and system sustainability (task 3.4.1)
Modelling complex agricultural systems (task 3.4.2)
Long-term agricultural experiments and databases as a resource for global change research (task 3.4.3)
Effects of global change on managed forests (activity 3.5)
Changes in pests, diseases and weeds (activity 3.2)
Effects of global change on soils (activity 3.3)
Conclusion
References
Present knowledge, problems and uncertainties
Implications and needs
Conclusions
References