Reference Date: 13-June-2024

Favourable production prospects for 2024 boro paddy crop

Harvesting of the 2024 boro paddy crop, which is mostly irrigated and accounts for about 55 percent of the annual output, finalized at the end of May 2024 and production prospects are favourable. The area planted is estimated above the five‑year average, while yield prospects are favourable (VCI map). Localized crop losses were caused by pockets of dryness and heatwaves in April 2024 in parts of the country, while hail, strong winds and localized flash floods, brought by the passage of Cyclone Remal, affected crops particularly in Khulna Division. Planting of the 2024 Aus paddy crop, accounting for about 10 percent of the annual output is ongoing, supported by favourable soil moisture conditions and harvesting will start in late June 2024. Planting of the 2024 Aman paddy crop, accounting for about 35 percent of the annual output, is started in late May. Harvesting of the 2024 winter maize crop, accounting for about 85 percent of the annual output, finalized last April and production is estimated at a record level, mostly reflecting large sowings driven by high prices at planting time. Favourable weather conditions and the widespread use of high‑yielding seed varieties resulted in above‑average yields. The 2024 summer maize crop, accounting for about 15 percent of the annual output, is currently at flowering and grain‑filling stages, and crop conditions are generally favourable. Production of the 2024 wheat crop, harvested last April, is estimated at average level of 1.1 million tonnes.

Record cereal production obtained in 2023

The 2023 aggregate cereal output is estimated at a record level of 64.3 million tonnes. Production of paddy is estimated at a record level of 58.6 million tonnes, reflecting bumper yields. Maize output is estimated at a record level of 4.7 million tonnes, mostly due to large sowings driven by a robust local demand and elevated prices at planting time. Wheat production is estimated at an average 1.1 million tonnes.

Cereal imports forecast below average in 2023/24

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat, that cover 80 percent of country’s consumption needs, plus some minor quantities of rice and maize. In the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), cereal imports are forecast at about 7.1 million tonnes, well below the average level for the second consecutive year. This is mainly due to the country’s low import capacity, caused by dwindling foreign currency reserves and the significant depreciation of the national currency (taka) from May 2022 to July 2023. Imports of rice in calendar 2024 are forecast at 400 000 tonnes.

Deteriorating food security conditions from April to October 2024

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 16.5 million people were estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) from April to October 2024, up from the 14.6 million estimated in the February to March 2024 period. About 15.7 million people are projected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and about 800 000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), with the majority of the population in Emergency being Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals and populations in Sunamganj and Kurigram. The deterioration of food security is in part attributed to projected extreme weather events such as cyclones and flooding during the projection period. In addition, despite record cereal harvests in 2022 and 2023, which have improved food availability, concerns about access to food remain due to persistent high food inflation that diminishes the purchasing power of vulnerable households. The food inflation has stayed at elevated levels since August 2022 and, in March 2024, it was estimated at 9.8 percent, a 9 percent increase on a yearly basis, driven by high costs of production and transport, reduced cereal imports (especially the key staple wheat) and the significant depreciation of the taka, which made imports costlier. The food insecurity of the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals, which as of April 2024 accounted for about 1 million people , is likely to increase in the projection period in case of funding shortfalls leading to decreased levels of humanitarian food assistance due to their high dependence on aid.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .