Reference Date: 07-August-2024

Below‑average plantings of 2024 maize crop due to low levels of prices

Harvesting of the 2024 minor maize crop, which accounts for about 45 percent of the annual production, is ongoing. Production is expected at a below‑average level due to a contraction in plantings, as a result of low prices of the grain and dry weather conditions at planting time. Although official estimates are not available yet, according to the Federation of Cereal Producers (FENALCE), the planted area with the 2024 minor maize crop is 16 percent below the five‑year average. Crop conditions before the start of the harvest in June were favourable across the main producing areas due to abundant rainfall amounts during the second trimester of 2024.

Planting of the 2024 main maize crop will start at the end of August and sowings of both white and yellow varieties are forecast to continue declining due to low levels of domestic prices and high availability of imported grains in the local markets. Weather forecasts point to below‑average precipitation amounts in September over the key producing departments of Meta and Tolima, with negative effects on yields. In the August to October period, near‑average rainfall amounts are forecast in other major producing departments of Córdoba, Bolívar and Cesar, providing conducive conditions for planting and early crop development. However, the forecast of above‑average rains in the last two months of 2024 could affect crop yields.

The harvest of the 2024 main paddy crop started in July and preliminary forecasts point to a slight year‑on‑year increase in production owing to a large planted area. This is due to expectations on higher domestic prices, in line with increasing quotations in international markets. The aggregate paddy production in 2024, including an average minor season output harvested during the second quarter of the year, is anticipated at a slightly above‑average level.

Cereal import requirements forecast at above‑average levels in 2024

About 85 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are usually covered by imports. Cereal import requirements in the 2024 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at 9.2 million tonnes, about 7 percent above the five‑year average. The high level mainly reflects the 2024 below‑average output of maize and the growing domestic demand for wheat, which is entirely met by imports.

Cereal prices lower year‑on‑year in July 2024

After increasing between March and June 2024, prices of white maize for human consumption declined in July with the start of the minor season harvest. Prices of yellow maize rose between April and July following seasonal trends coupled with expectations of a decline in the harvest. As of July 2024, prices of white and yellow maize were lower year‑on‑year due to ample supplies from the above‑average production in 2023. Similarly, prices of wheat flour were below their year‑earlier levels in July, following sustained declines since May 2023, due to declining international quotations. Prices of rice have strengthened since November 2023 and, in July 2024, they were slightly below those of a year earlier.

The annual food inflation rate was 5.3 percent in June 2024, down from 14.3 percent in the same month in 2023.

In 2024, about 7.3 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in food security and nutrition sectors

The country hosts a high number of refugees and migrants as well as Internally displaced people (IDP). According to the Humanitarian Response Plan of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, about 7.3 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance in the food security and nutrition sectors in 2024 , slightly up from the 7.1 million people in 2023 . This figure includes refugees and migrants as well as Colombian host communities or people affected by internal conflicts.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .