Reference Date: 04-March-2025

Below-average wheat output obtained in 2024

Harvesting of the 2024 wheat crop, mostly irrigated, finalized last September and production is officially estimated at 397 000 tonnes, about 10 percent below the previous five-year average. The low output mostly reflects a contraction in sowings, as farmers opted to grow more profitable vegetables and other crops, including barley and oats.

The 2024 output of potatoes, barley and oats is officially estimated to be well above average, reflecting large sowings driven by strong local demand and remunerative domestic prices. Production of vegetables is officially estimated at a record 282 300 tonnes, about 35 percent up year-on-year.

Wheat import requirements in 2024/25 forecast well above average

Cereal imports consist mostly of wheat plus small quantities of rice. Wheat import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at a well above-average level of 150 000 tonnes, due to the low domestic production in 2024 and strong demand for high-quality wheat for human consumption. On 1 May 2024, the government removed the 15 percent import duty on wheat flour, with the aim to boost imports by the private sector and improve market supply and lower domestic prices. For the 2025 calendar year, imports of rice, which is not produced domestically, are forecast at 45 000 tonnes.

Prices of beef and mutton meat at high levels in January 2025

Retail prices of beef and mutton meat, key staple foods, have increased since November 2024 and, as of January 2025, they were about 20 percent higher than a year earlier. The price increases follow seasonal patterns, which were exacerbated by the reduced availability of livestock products in markets due to significant livestock losses caused by the 2023/24 Dzud event. Strong export demand for meat from China (mainland), the country’s largest importer, also supported domestic prices.

Retail prices of wheat flour, an important staple food, declined sharply from August 2024 to January 2025, with the commercialization of the 2024 harvest, increased imports in the second part of 2024 and declining international prices. As of January 2025, prices of wheat flour were about 10 percent lower than their high levels a year earlier.

Livestock numbers in 2024 estimated significantly below average

Between November 2023 and April 2024, the country was affected by winter weather extremes, locally known as Dzud, which led to significant livestock losses due to starvation and cold. As of December 2024, the livestock population was estimated at 57.6 million heads, 20 percent below pre-Dzud levels and 15 percent below the five-year average. The loss of livestock has directly affected the livelihoods of large proportion of the population; about 30 percent of the total population depend on livestock-rearing activities. Especially in urban areas, where people rely mostly on markets for food, the high prices of meat products may reduce consumption of the most vulnerable households, opting for cheaper but less nutritious foods, with an overall negative effect on their food security, health and nutrition. For more information, see GIEWS Update .

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .