Nigeria will dramatically transform in the coming decades. In a business as usual scenario, the Nigeria population is expected to reach more than 400 million by 2050, from about 198 million today, and the size of the economy to about quintuple. The Nigeria Economic Recovery and Growth Plan 2017 – 2020 aims at establishing the foundations for a steady and inclusive development of the country in the coming decades. As a response to sharp and continuous decline of oil price since mid-2014 that has constrained development, it promotes a “structural economic transformation” and “sustainable diversification”.

The livestock sector is anticipated to transform as part of the implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, with the Agricultural Promotion Policy 2016-2020 prioritizing investments in the dairy and poultry sectors to commercialise production and reduce the demand-supply gaps. In the long-term, however, the growth and transformation of the livestock sector might also result in negative public health, environmental and social outcomes, because of a variety of unknown and unpredictable factors shaping its development trajectory.

The Nigeria Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Federal Ministry of Health, the Federal Ministry of Environment and the FAO Africa Sustainable Livestock 2050 Initiative have joined forces to generate evidence to support decisions for a sustainable development of livestock in the long-term. A National Steering Committee, comprising representatives of the partnering ministries, leads a multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder process to:

• Characterize the current livestock production systems and generate evidence on their impact on public health, the environment and livelihoods;
• Formulate long-term (2050) scenarios to characterize future livestock production systems and anticipate emerging opportunities and challenges for Nigerian society;
• Identify actionable policy reforms to implement today that, by complementing current policies and strategies, will enhance the country capacity to cope with the possible emergence and spread of zoonotic diseases and antimicrobial resistance; to deal with the potential negative impact of livestock on the environment and climate change; and to improve the livelihoods, and food and nutritional security of the future generations.