SAHEL WEATHER AND CROP SITUATION REPORT Global Information and Early Warning System on food and agriculture
	Report No.1 - 12 June 2000

THE RAINY SEASON HAS STARTED GENERALLY ON TIME IN THE CENTRE AND THE EAST OF THE SAHEL

SUMMARY

The rainy season has started in late April or May in southern Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea Bissau and Mali, in the extreme south-west of Niger and the extreme south-east of Senegal; seasonably dry conditions prevail in the rest of Senegal, Cape Verde, The Gambia and Mauritania. This corresponds to the normal pattern in the Sahel, except for Niger where the onset of the rains is somewhat delayed. Satellite imagery for the first dekad of June shows a decrease in the intensity of the rains in the areas where they had started in Burkina Faso and Niger but a significant northwards movement of cloud coverage, indicating that rains progressed over the centre of Mali, Niger and Chad.

Land preparation and plantings are in progress following the onset of the rains. Dry planting is also underway in Mauritania and Niger. Crops are emerging satisfactorily in southern Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali but improved rains are needed in the coming weeks . Seed availibility is generally adequate following above average to record harvests in most Sahelian countries in 1009.

The pest situation is calm. A few Desert Locusts were reported in mid-April in south-eastern Aïr in Niger and during May in Adrar in Mauritania. Low numbers of adults are likely to appear in southern Mauritania and lay with the onset of the rains.
 
 

SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST

From 8 to 13 May in Ouagadougou, the ACMAD (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development) and the Agrhymet Centre of CILSS (Comité inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse au Sahel) organised the Third Forum on Seasonal Climate Prediction (PRESAO) to formulate guidance on the expected rainfall for the period July-September 2000 over West Africa, Sudan and Ethiopia. The Sahelian region receives about 80 percent of its annual precipitation in the months July-September. The Forum made a seasonal weather forecast based on atmospheric models together with physically based statistical models. The model estimates the probability of this year's total rainfall falling in one of three categories (above normal, below normal and near normal) defined using the recorded rainfall in the 1961-90 period.

For the western Sahelian region extending from Mali and Burkina Faso to the Atlantic coast (Region I on the map), there is an increased probability this year of near normal to above normal rainfall. Moving further east, the category with the highest probability becomes near normal (Niger, northern and eastern Nigeria, much of Chad and Cameroon; Region II). For the region south of about 8 degrees north, extending from central Sierra Leone to south-western Nigeria (Region IV), there is an increased probability of the below normal rainfall category occurring.
 
 

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