ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES WORKING PAPER 24 Mapping global urban and rural population distributions Mirella Salvatore Francesca Pozzi Ergin Ataman Barbara Huddleston Mario Bloise Annex Estimates of future global population distribution to 2015 Deborah Balk Melanie Brickman Bridget Anderson Francesca Pozzi Greg Yetman
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2005
	Table of Contents

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CONTENTS

Foreword

Abstract

Acknowledgements

Acronyms

1.   INTRODUCTION

2.   SOURCES FOR URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION DATASETS

2.1   Definitions

2.2   Statistical sources and databases

2.2.1   Internationally-recognized country-by-country population databases

2.2.2   Other widely known sources of population data

2.2.3   Concluding remarks

2.3   Geospatial datasets

2.3.1   Populated places

2.3.2   The Nighttime Lights of the World

2.3.3   Global Land Cover

3.   REVIEW OF EXISTING GEOREFERENCED POPULATION DATASETS

3.1   Gridded Population of the World

3.2   LandScan Global Population Database

3.3   Global Rural Urban Mapping Project

3.4   Population databases for Africa, Asia and Latin America

3.5   Other research efforts to map urban population

4.   DETERMINING VARIATION IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS BY PIXEL

4.1   Objectives

4.2   Methodology

4.2.1   Choice of population database

4.2.2   Detection of urban areas

4.2.3   Derivation of population distribution grids

4.2.4   Crosschecking of the urban population results with the UN figures

4.3   Comparison of the PMUe with other similar databases

4.3.1   Comparison of the urban land area results

4.3.2   Evaluation of the geographic coordinates of the human settlements in the PMUe database

5.   UNRESOLVED ISSUES AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

REFERENCES

Sources and notes

Document references

Web site references

LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES AND MAPS

FIGURES

Figure 4.1   Geometric correction of Nighttime Lights of the World 2000 to UN international coastline map: Istanbul area

Figure 4.2   Cumulative distribution of population versus DN value in Italy

Figure 4.3   Average light threshold (LT) value by UN region

Figure 4.4   Cameroon: isolated pixels and very small agglomerations not detectable by LT

Figure 4.5   Different stages in computing the urban mask for Johannesburg and vicinity

Figure 4.6   Histogram of the share of urban area in total area, by UN region

Figure 4.7   Comparison of the share of urban area in total area, by continent

Figure 4.8   Comparison of the share of urban area in total area by developed/developing country

Figure 4.9   Visual comparison of urban extents

TABLES

Table 4.1   List of the 154 countries included in the urban and rural databases

Table 4.2   List of the countries with underestimated urban populations

Table 4.3   List of the countries with overestimated urban populations

Table 4.4   Comparison of urban area by UN regions (km²)

Table 4.5   The human settlements in GRUMP database detected by PMUe with one kilometre buffer

Table 2.1   Countries with the highest and lowest available resolution

Table 2.2   Average level and total number of administrative units, by continent

MAPS

Map 2.1   The Nighttime Lights of the World superimposed on bathymetry (segment)

Map 2.2   The Global Land Cover, 2000

Map 3.1   Population density in 2000 from GPWv3 adjusted to UN totals

Map 3.2   LandScan Global Population Database, adjusted to UN figure year 2000

Map 3.3   Population density in 2000 from GRUMP adjusted to UN totals

Map 4.1   Spatial distribution of the difference in urban population figure by country

Map 4.2   UN classification of the world in regions

Map 1.1   Global population density in 2015

Map 2.1   Number of administrative units included in GPWv3, by country

Map 2.2   Year of the most recent census data available, by country

Map 2.3   Number of population data years employed, by country

Map 4.1   Number of countries for which sub-national versus national growth rates were used

Map 5.1   Population density projections for the year 2015 with a focus on selected urban areas

ANNEX
ESTIMATES OF FUTURE GLOBAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION TO 2015

1.   INTRODUCTION

2.   INPUT DATA DESCRIPTION

2.1   Boundary input sources

2.2   Population input sources

3.   METHODOLOGY

3.1   The gridding approach

3.2   Extrapolation methodology

4.   EXTRAPOLATION PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS

4.1   Irreconcilable boundary differences

4.2   Mixed administrative level spatial and population data

4.3   Particularly high population growth rates

5.   CONCLUSION

REFERENCES