Agricultural research has played a crucial role in food security and agricultural development by increasing agricultural production to meet the food needs of a rapidly growing population. The major progress in yields of cereals and other crops, livestock and farmed fish has been the key contribution to the 80 percent increase in global food output since the mid-1960s.
Despite the fact that world food supplies have grown faster than population, persisting problems of poverty and malnutrition result in nearly 20 percent of the inhabitants of developing countries being undernourished. Lack of access to food persists even when food is available on the market. In order to supply food for and reduce poverty in a global population expected to reach 8.3 billion by the year 2025, and with ever higher pressures on the resource base, the world will need substantial increases in agricultural productivity.
Science-based agricultural technologies, developed through agricultural research, are essential to increasing productivity while maintaining or, better, improving the sustainability of natural resources and the environment. Social sciences must provide stronger support to policy developments that can ensure better equity and access to food.
These challenges notwithstanding, investments in the natural and social sciences for agriculture and rural development have decreased in most industrialized and developing countries during the last decade, in spite of clear indications of their large returns to society, both directly and through upturns in rural-based economies and links to urban centres. There is a real concern that past advances in agricultural productivity cannot be maintained, and that agriculture in developing countries will be bypassed in new scientific thrusts that do not relate to the needs of food-insecure people.
The agricultural research agenda must respond to the problems of food insecurity, of poverty and of resource and environmental degradation. It will be shaped by the choices of research investments and strategies made by governments and institutions in both developed and developing countries, taking full account of the division of research interests between the private and public sectors. This paper points to three main thrusts for research intended to reduce food insecurity. It focuses specifically on areas of particular concern to developing countries:
National agricultural research systems (NARS) � including government-based institutions, universities, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and, increasingly, private industry � are and will continue to be the cornerstone of the global agricultural research system. They alone can be responsible for addressing the range of productivity and sustainability issues in their own countries. Given the diverse nature of agro-ecological conditions and the location-specificity of small-farm production and natural-resource management problems, NARS must play an even larger role as the interface between the global agricultural research system, of which they are a component, and farmers and other natural-resource users. The success of the global agricultural research system is dependent upon a strong national research capacity, complemented by an effective technology transfer mechanism. Strong partnerships among NARS, between them and regional and international research institutes, including those of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), constitute the other main condition for increasing the efficiency of the global research system.
Increasingly, private industry is becoming involved with agricultural research, for example, through the application of biotechnology to agriculture. Research efforts within the agrochemical industries and those concerned with farm implements also continue to be based mainly in the private sector of industrialized countries. Lack of sufficient economic incentives for private-sector research to generate technologies in developing countries has been combined in recent years with a general decline in the international involvement of developed-country NARS. These trends must be reversed. It is essential that financial support to agricultural research in developing countries be significantly increased, but increased funding will not suffice: profound institutional reforms are also required. In parallel, stable and significant funding of the international centres of the CGIAR must be ensured. It is also necessary to mobilize the large reservoir of human resources available in the industrialized countries for this task. These resources must not be allowed to erode when faced with the global challenge for food security.
A carefully drafted and delivered agricultural research agenda for food security, in its widest sense, with determined backing from all developing and industrialized countries, government and private sectors alike, is one of the best tools that the global community can devise for contributing to food security during the next two to three decades.
Although many individuals have inadequate access to food, the world as a whole has been generally successful in recent decades in meeting aggregate food demand. Estimates by FAO in its study World agriculture: towards 2010 (WAT2010) suggest that there are reasonable prospects for maintaining an overall balance between food supply and effective demand, although the elimination of chronic undernutrition remains a formidable additional challenge. The investments needed to achieve this, and more equitable food distribution, have not been gauged so far. Few systematic records exist of past investments, nor are there good models of the causal relationship between investment in agriculture and food supply.
The paper discusses the driving forces behind agricultural investment and broadly estimates the types and volumes of investment needed to secure the increases in food output required in developing countries over the next 15 years. The contributions required from the private and public sectors, and the role of external assistance within these totals are discussed. However, the direct cost of targeted or emergency assistance to the undernourished, urgent as it is, does not fall within the scope of the paper. Also the complex question of the relationships of investment in agriculture with food security and with environmental sustainability would merit more exhaustive treatment than can be given in the paper.
It should be underlined that the estimates/projections provided in the paper apply to developing countries only, and constitute estimated investment amounts and flows considered necessary to achieve the food and agricultural production targets set out in WAT2010.
Reliance on diverse agro-ecological settings to enhance food supplies and food security requires systems approaches, greater participation of the farmers themselves in technology generation and transfer and a change in the mindset of researchers and extension workers towards meeting farmers� needs. A variety of on-farm investments will be required in irrigation, land improvement, new agricultural tools and machines, livestock breeds and plant varieties. Much of the investment will be in the form of farmers� own labour. Upstream and downstream investments will supply new types of inputs, crop or animal breeds and machines, and processing, marketing and storage facilities, to make new forms of sustainable intensification physically possible and privately profitable. Facilitating investments in rural infrastructure will link producers to the mega-cities in which an increasing proportion of consumers will live; and social services will enable rural people to respond physically and mentally to new opportunities. Important transboundary and global issues will need attention: pooled investments are more cost-effective than individual country actions in approaching common problems of technology and resource management. Global alliances are required to monitor emerging trends of, and possible threats to, world food supplies.
Investment patterns will vary between regions. In Asia, the threat of plateauing responses to green revolution cereal technology is a major concern. Irrigation rehabilitation, drainage and the creation of efficient water markets to cope with rising water scarcity are priorities. Massive urban growth calls for investments in marketing infrastructure and communications. In Africa, scarce and deteriorating infrastructure is a major bottleneck. Investments need to help improve the management of rain-fed land to maintain fertility, structure and enhance in situ capture of variable rainfall. Irrigation can be expanded or rehabilitated where physical and socio-economic conditions allow this at acceptable cost/benefit ratios, without neglecting alternative routes to food security. Participatory approaches to research and development will be important to bring progressive modernization to Africa�s traditional farming systems at costs and risks which poor and subsistence-oriented farmers are willing to accept. In Latin America, much could be gained from market-assisted land reforms to give small-scale and landless farmers better access to remaining reserves of productive land. Sustainable mechanized farming systems need to develop, as well as the processing and marketing infrastructure required by a population which will be 80 percent urban by the year 2010. In all regions rural areas are underequipped with social infrastructure, critical to developing the most important productive resource, human capital.
Some broadly indicative figures on current investment can be derived from FAO data and other sources. These imply that net investments in on-farm improvements in the developing world may have been US$26 billion per year in the recent past (US$77 billion gross) and in the post-production sector US$15 billion per year (US$34 billion gross).
In addition to these largely private investments, public expenditure on research and extension in developing countries may be estimated at about US$10 billion per year and on rural infrastructure at, very tentatively, US$20 billion per year.
A significant share of public investment in the rural sectors of developing countries has been funded by official development finance (ODF). International assistance to agriculture in developing countries rose from around US$12 billion per year in the early 1980s to nearly US$16 billion in 1988. It has since declined to under US$10 billion annually by 1994.
The efficiency of investments is as much an issue as their volume. Macroeconomic adjustments in many countries are reducing subsidies and providing more rational signals to private investors on whom future growth in food output depends. Countries and donors are also making efforts to match public funding more closely with beneficiary needs, through decentralization and participatory approaches in the planning and implementation of development programmes and the privatization in part or in whole of formerly public agricultural services where returns can be privately appropriated.
As to future investment, provisional estimates suggest that to increase food production in developing countries in line with effective demand until 2010, gross investment of some US$86 billion will be required annually in primary agricultural production (including irrigation), US$43 billion for related post-production facilities and US$37 billion for public support services and infrastructure. Taking into account all relevant factors and their different effects on the level of investment, e.g. real price changes for capital items, technological progress and disinvestment in the past, it may be assumed that the resulting incremental gross investment figure in terms of primary production, post-production, and public support services and infrastructure of US$31 billion annually, constitutes a conservative but realistic estimate. On this basis, the total gross investment required to sustain growth rates implied by the WAT2010 study would be some US$166 billion per year, or about 23 percent above average agriculture-related total gross investment over the past decade.
Net investments needed to increase capital stock, and hence food supply, are estimated at about the same level as in the recent past at some US$42 billion annually. There are, however, major regional variations. In sub-Saharan Africa, net investment in primary production will have to rise substantially above historic levels to meet future food demand. In North Africa, the Near East and much of Asia, however, emphasis will be on improved use of existing capital stock, so that the required amounts of incremental net investment to expand food supply will gradually decline. In Latin America net investments will have to exceed recent past levels substantially and a significant investment backlog in terms of replacement and renewal of existing stock needs to be addressed.
Nearly three-quarters of the future investment needed in the developing countries would, as in the past, consist of private commitments by farmers for land improvements, new equipment, expansion of livestock herds and plantations, often in the form of family labour, and for private investments in the post-production chain. The remaining one-quarter, representing about US$41 billion per year, will consist of complementary public investments to create and maintain the conditions for profitable private-sector agricultural investment. If external multilateral and bilateral financial support for these public investments were to provide the same share as in the past, i.e. around one-third overall, external commitments would need to rise by some US$5billion per year, from US$10 billion at present to US$15 billion annually, i.e. to the same level already attained in the late 1980s.
The Table shows a working hypothesis concerning the average incremental annual gross investment needs in developing countries to underpin agricultural growth requirements as projected under the WAT2010 scenario. These estimates do not cover the needs of countries in other categories or the additional investments required to reduce even further persistent problems of malnutrition (see WFS companion paper 14, Assessment of feasible progress in food security). The incremental investments shown would, under the WAT2010 scenario, satisfy the market demand of the existing population and of an additional 1.3 billion people in developing countries expected by 2010, although between 600 and 700 million people who do not have the necessary purchasing power would still be in a state of chronic undernutrition unless special policies and actions are adopted on their behalf.
Policy-makers in government and the international donor community should continue to pay attention to the following requirements:
|
Table | ||||
| Region | Private | Public | Total | |
|
| Domestic | Oficial development finance (ODF) |
|
| (US$ billion) | |||
Sub-Saharan Africa | 3.4 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 8.9 |
Near East and North Africa | -1.8 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -3.3 |
Asia | 9.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 13.5 |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 11.5 |
Developing world | 18.6 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 30.6 |
Food producers face major new challenges as world population is projected to increase from the present 5 800 million people to about 8 300 million in the year 2025, and the per caput land available for food production continues to decline. The scientific ability and technological means to obtain the necessary food from the earth are available but narrowly focused government policies and inequitable distribution of wealth and resources have led to numerous instances of environmental impacts that could have been avoided.
The amount of land most suited by its relief, soils and climate to arable cropping is about 11 percent of the total land surface. However, with the possible exceptions of limited areas in Africa and Latin America, most additional food will have to be produced on land that is already under some form of production. Expansion of agriculture on to less suitable land means greater input costs, more risk of crop failure and environmental degradation. All these factors contribute to food insecurity.
The report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) (the Brundtland Commission) and Agenda 21 of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (1992) both identified agriculture and rural development among the priority development issues to be addressed if sustainable development is to be realized. To use natural resources in a sustainable manner will require technological progress complemented by supporting environmental and social policies. Land-use patterns will have to shift with some land becoming less intensively used and other land more intensively. In all cases the use of natural resources will have to be based on their physical and biological potential, which can vary greatly and is strongly influenced by the management practices and technology that are applied. In general, countries should take advantage of higher-potential lands for food production and seek to distribute the benefits equitably.
Much of the science and technology available for food production was developed in countries (or research centres) that have different environmental, social and economic conditions from those where they are applied today. Thus, even though technologies exist to increase production in an environmentally balanced way, many of them require fundamental shifts in the mechanisms that are used to develop and deliver them to the farmer.
Notwithstanding the present conditions that call for reduced intervention in the economy, governments have a special role to play in agriculture and rural development which is different from other sectors. Such a role is shaped by cultural traditions, concerns and values that are embedded in the national conscience. Among these are the commitment to ensure food for the nation�s population and to protect its natural and rural heritage.
Increased productivity with environmental safeguards is necessary and possible through the use of appropriate combinations of biological, social, technological and economic tools for participatory land-use planning; land and water conservation; waste management; integrated production systems; linkages among research, education and extension; and land-tenure reform.
For environmentally sound agriculture, more integrated production systems accompanied by appropriate enabling mechanisms and an improved use of external inputs are priorities. Although the latter carry a risk of environmental degradation, when used properly they can also potentially improve productivity and food security and relieve pressure on other lands. Irrigation, improved varieties and agrochemicals make extremely important contributions to food production � 36 percent of all crops and 50 percent of the total grain crop come from irrigated land. However, not enough emphasis has been placed on mechanisms that enable users to manage external inputs safely. This requires renewed emphasis on farmer training and education, technical support and the accompanying infrastructure to minimize negative environmental impacts.
There is considerable evidence that innovations are rapidly adopted if farmers find them to be beneficial. Thus, the challenge is to design innovations and incentives that are economically rewarding to individual producers as well as environmentally sound and beneficial to society as a whole. Integrated pest management (IPM) and integrated plant nutrition systems (IPNS) packages clearly function along these lines but require active involvement by farmers, extension workers and scientists.
Governments must lead this complex process using all available means, including technology and appropriate policy instruments, to encourage farmers, markets, food industries, research institutions, consumers and others to make the development of agriculture an environmentally sound activity.
Awareness and consensus can be reached on environmentally sound production methods through, inter alia:
Governments should work with farmers and other food producers, business associates and other non-governmental interests to increase the quantity and quality of food that is available to the rural poor. This can be done by:
The rapid spread and adoption of best working practices and other enabling conditions for sustainable food production are essential. The three key elements in achieving this are efficiency of resource use, planning and implementation frameworks and good governance.
The principles of the den Bosch Declaration (FAO, 1991) and the objectives embodied in Agenda 21 will only be realized if technology and policy are accompanied by participation, equity and dialogue, enabling mechanisms, empowerment and incentives. These will be the pathways towards environmentally sound agriculture and food security. Without them, the important technology and policy tools available will not have lasting positive effects.
Trade is vital to world food security. Without trade, countries would have to rely exclusively on their own production; overall incomes would be far lower, the choice of goods would be far less and hunger would increase. While this much is common ground, especially with respect to trade within national boundaries, the relation of trade to food security raises a number of complex issues that are discussed below.
World trade in goods and services in 1994 reached US$5 190 billion, of which agricultural trade amounted to US$485 billion and food trade US$266 billion. Since the World Food Conference in 1974, the volume of agricultural trade has increased by 75 percent and its value has more than tripled. Food trade has also tripled in value. As a result of successive rounds of trade liberalization, world trade has expanded much more quickly than production. In consequence, the world economy is more integrated today than ever before: countries rely increasingly on trade, both as a source of earnings and as a source of supply. The growing integration of the world economy is part of the trend towards globalization.
International trade influences food security in several ways. In the first place, trade allows food consumption to exceed food production in those countries where output is constrained. Over the period 1970 to 1990, consumption of agricultural products grew 10 percent more quickly than production in the 93 developing countries covered by the 1995 FAO study World agriculture: towards 2010 (WAT2010). Resorting to imports generally allows food consumption needs to be met more cheaply than by relying on domestic production alone. While there can be specific reasons for some countries to aim at substantial food self-sufficiency, in general it makes better economic sense to follow the more flexible policy of food self-reliance, provided importers can rely on the world market as a dependable and efficient source of supply and exporters have an expanding market for their products. Notwithstanding notification and consultation obligations of World Trade Organization (WTO) members on export restrictions, particular concerns for importing countries are whether imports will be available when needed and the possible risk of trade embargoes. To some extent the expansion of the world cereal trade should allay fears about the adequacy of overall supply but importers continue to be concerned by the use of measures that restrict exports. As regards the role of the world market as a source of earnings for developing countries, the strong expansion in the volume of their trade has been accompanied by declining terms of trade for the products of developing countries, which have eroded possible gains considerably. In addition, their food import capacity has frequently been constrained by having to make large debt service repayments.
Food trade also has an important role to play in stabilizing domestic supplies and prices. Without trade, domestic production fluctuations would have to be borne by adjustments in consumption and/or stocks. Trade allows consumption fluctuations to be reduced and relieves countries of part of the burden of stockholding. For regular importers (and exporters), however, international price instability can be a problem for consumers, producers, processors and governments.
International trade has a major bearing on access to food via its effect on incomes and employment. While more liberal trade policies over time contribute to economic growth, the main issue for food security is whether this economic growth reaches the poor. Although some evidence shows that in most developing countries export industries were more labour intensive than import-substituting industries and that employment tended to grow in outward-oriented economies, the linkages between trade, growth, employment and poverty are not clearcut since each of these variables is influenced by other factors.
Provided domestic policies are in place to ensure that gains from trade reach the poor and to safeguard them from possible negative impacts, trade liberalization can play an important role in improving food security even though there may be problems with adjustment to the new trade regime. Although estimates of the impact of trade liberalization, including the Uruguay Round, range widely, studies point to significant income gains over the next few years. Adding the immeasurable effects of improvements in trade rules and the impact of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Services, the overall impact of the Uruguay Round should be to provide the wherewithal to improve income levels and hence food security. The difficulties that countries may face during the reform process have been recognized and developing countries have been given special and differential treatment, mainly in the form of longer periods to make adjustments and lower reduction commitments. The Uruguay Round also recognizes that during the process of reform the least-developed and net food-importing countries may experience negative effects in terms of the availability of adequate imported supplies of basic foodstuffs on reasonable terms and conditions. Accordingly, great importance is attached to ensuring that the Uruguay Round Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform Programme on Least-Developed and Net Food-Importing Developing Countries is implemented rapidly.
It should be noted that the Uruguay Round may not make much difference to the volume of food aid for, while the amount linked to surplus disposal may decline, the quantities linked to assistance under the above-mentioned decision could well increase. Countries not giving aid-in-kind should actively consider the use of triangular food aid transactions and other means of technical and financial assistance to increase productivity in the countries affected.
Trade liberalization as reflected in the Uruguay Round is not likely to affect significantly the net availability of food globally, as reduced output in high-cost countries will be generally replaced by increased output in other countries. In view of the likely change in the medium term in favour of the relative prices of food commodities, countries should consider revising their agricultural policies and passing on increases in world prices to their domestic sectors so as to stimulate investment in food production. The effect of the Uruguay Round on the stability of world food prices is uncertain. Four factors are at play: the positive effect of tariffication, the negative effect of declining global food stocks, the positive impact of the greater share of stocks in private hands and the uncertain effect of shifting the location of production.
Overall, by encouraging income growth, by broadening the range and variety of foods available domestically, by reducing the risks arising from domestic production fluctuations and by enabling global food security to be produced more efficiently, trade liberalization contributes to improving food security in each of its three dimensions of access, availability and stability. However, trade liberalization has raised concerns that the structural changes that accompany economic growth can lead to reduced food security among very poor countries and households unable to take advantage of the new trading opportunities; that food imports may become more expensive; that world food price instability may increase if global stocks decline; and that certain non-trade concerns, e.g. the environment and the viability of rural communities, may be affected. Each country should ensure that such concerns, when applicable, are duly addressed by national policies.
Trade, environment, sustainability and food security are also closely related. In the long term, global food security depends on maintaining and conserving the national resource base for food production. Trade affects the environment in three ways: it raises incomes, hence boosting the demand for environmental goods and the means of satisfying these demands; it changes the location of production and consumption; and, the act of trading itself uses resources and may lead to spillages and other environmental damage.
Of growing concern is the impact of higher environmental standards on agricultural trade and hence eventually on the export earnings and food security of the developing countries. The international community is currently in the process of developing new policies in this area. These issues will undoubtedly figure prominently in future multilateral trade discussions.
The case for further trade liberalization in agriculture is that, despite significant progress, agricultural protectionism is still extensive. Indeed, the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture recognized that the long-term objective of substantial progressive reductions in support and protection resulting in fundamental reform is an ongoing process. Negotiations for continuing the process will start in 1999.
The paper defines food assistance as all actions that national governments, often in collaboration with non-governmental organizations and members of civil society, and with external aid when necessary, undertake to improve the nutritional well-being of their citizens, who otherwise would not have access to adequate food for a healthy and active life. It identifies the main categories of people for whom food assistance is necessary, and focuses on the principal means by which it can be effective.
The chronically undernourished are people with a low and insecure income, with limited assets, few marketable skills, deficient purchasing power and a lack of powerful advocates. Hunger is debilitating; a manifestation of poverty, it is itself a cause of poverty. Removing current hunger contributes both to eradicating poverty and towards food security. Food assistance to individuals with critical needs at special times of the life cycle (the newborn, infants and pregnant and lactating women) or at certain times of the year has significant positive impact on their food security in the long term. Moreover, for people who have been hit by natural disasters or human crises, survival supersedes other considerations, and food assistance provides the only hope.
Hunger is found even amid affluence, and in cities as well as in rural areas. Nevertheless, hunger is more prevalent and intense in poor societies and among less affluent people. Thus, most hungry people are found in low-income food-deficit countries where most of the population is still rural, particulary in Africa and South Asia.
The Table, which gives estimates of the population below the �hunger line� in developing countries (93 countries, representing 95 percent), illustrates the dimensions of the problem.
These estimates of the current and anticipated state of undernutrition take into account the results of efforts undertaken to improve the food situation, i.e. the positive impact of direct and indirect policies and actions to reduce poverty and its consequences; they show, therefore, the dimension of the remaining task, now and in the future. However, to the extent that they do not show the widespread incidence of malnutrition other than chronic undernutrition, the prevalence of seasonal or temporary food inadequacy or emergency-related malnutrition, they underestimate the true scale of the task ahead.
Table | ||||
Country group | 1990-1992 | 2010 | ||
| Total | Undernourished | Total | Undernourished |
| (million) | |||
< 2 100 Calories | 402 | 191 | 286 | 141 |
2 100-2 500 Calories | 1 543 | 371 | 736 | 186 |
2 500-2 700 Calories | 332 | 47 | 1 933 | 220 |
> 2 700 Calories | 1 811 | 231 | 2 738 | 133 |
93 developing countries | 4 088 | 840 | 5 693 | 680 |
World hunger is a local problem. National governments have the ultimate responsibility of ensuring that all their citizens are food secure. Worldwide, the amount of resources provided from domestic sources (both public and private) far exceeds the resources provided through international food aid. In developing countries, food assistance programmes rarely account for less than 5 percent of total government expenditure; they have reached as high as 45 percent (in Egypt, 1980-1981). In many developed countries even larger sums are spent on national food assistance programmes. The United States Federal Government, for example, spent about US$38 billion in 1995 on the 16 food assistance programmes administered by the United States Department of Agriculture. World international food aid was less than US$4 billion at its peak in 1988. Even in countries where external food aid accounts for a sizeable proportion of total food assistance, national resources are usually the first to be amassed to save the lives of those caught up in emergency situations.
In both developed and developing countries, national food assistance programmes generally suffered reductions during the 1980s and 1990s. Policies associated with macroeconomic stabilization in many developing countries have resulted in higher food prices as a result of exchange rate realignments and reduction in food subsidies. Cuts in social expenditures and services have affected the poor, who are most dependent on public support; economic adjustments have resulted in increases in sectoral or overall unemployment and a decline in incomes for many. Of late, emphasis has been renewed at the international level on poverty reduction and safety nets for those unable to take advantage of opportunities provided by economic reform programmes.
Local hunger is a world problem. The individual�s right to food is enshrined in a number of United Nations declarations and covenants. Acting upon basic humanitarian considerations, the international community provides food aid to assist in combating hunger. However, food aid has also been declining, from almost 17 million tonnes (cereal equivalents) in 1992/93 to around 9 million tonnes in 1994/95, and from over 11 million tonnes to around 6 million tonnes for the low-income food-deficit countries. Meanwhile the increase in the number and complexity of emergencies has resulted in a growing proportion (from 30 to 50 percent in two decades) of targeted relief and development food aid in the total food aid basket. Moreover, food aid is becoming less of a means to dispose of the surpluses of industrialized countries; it is increasingly provided through cash purchases of food in developing countries, and it must now compete in tight aid budgets with other forms of development assistance.
An important underlying reason, beyond the general drive for tighter budget behaviour, for changes in the structure and size of both national food assistance programmes and food aid has been a widespread perception that some past programmes had been wasteful and inefficient. Indeed, unwisely designed and implemented food assistance programmes can have deleterious effects on development and future food security: financial unsustainability, depressed domestic production, missed target beneficiaries, dependence upon assistance and extraneous dietary habits. Simply put, abuse of food assistance can be counterproductive.
Future food assistance programmes will have to become more efficient and effective in order to do more with few resources. The driving principle of reaching the people who need it most, at times when they need it most and in ways that achieve lasting impact as well as short-term help, translates into three goals.
The first goal at any moment is to provide timely, appropriate and adequate relief interventions. The main victims of emergencies are women and children. Women must be brought into the design and management of food assistance and must become its direct beneficiaries. Emergency interventions must shift progressively, as early as possible, into post-crisis rehabilitation, leading to improved resilience of households and the affected segments of the economy, for development to take hold. Where agriculture proves the best, or only, avenue to alleviating post-crisis food insecurity, food assistance for agricultural recovery can foster rehabilitation of the agricultural sector in the aftermath of an emergency.
The chronically hungry are handicapped in fulfilling both their human and their economic potential. The second goal is therefore to provide food assistance to those who would not otherwise have access to this essential means of life, giving special attention to people with critical needs at certain times of the year or at certain stages of the life cycle.
The third goal is to make food assistance a tool for development, with a focus on people. Through interventions for enhancing nutrition, hungry people can benefit from health, education, skills and income-earning initiatives. In this sense, food assistance is a preventive medicine.
In certain countries and circumstances, national efforts cannot suffice. The Table shows the limits for redistribution in countries with very low average dietary energy supply. If additional food assistance were fully targeted on needy individuals, and consumed entirely by them as food, the value of purchasing power to be transferred to undernourished people would be equivalent to a world average of around US$13 per hungry person per year. The effort required to eliminate current hunger and to check it in the future is far beyond the resources now devoted to it. It cannot be said, however, that this goal is beyond the world�s reach. This should encourage all governments and their partners engaged in humanitarian and social welfare assistance programmes to make an increased effort to identify where and who the hungry are and to devise cost-effective schemes for providing direct food assistance. National and international resources flowing into redesigned food assistance programmes would themselves accelerate the progress to a time when they could decline as fast as the need for them in the twenty-first century.
Current prospects, as presented in World Food Summit (WFS) companion paper 1, Food, agriculture and food security: developments since the World Food Conference and prospects, show that in the year 2010 a large number of developing countries might still have per caput food supplies [measured as their average dietary energy supplies (DES), a widely available proxy for food consumption] that would be totally inadequate for reducing significantly the incidence of undernutrition. Indeed, such incidence would remain stubbornly high, at some 680 million persons in the year 2010, a very small reduction from the 840 million of 1990-1992.
Progress beyond such a grim outcome can result only from a combination of two factors: a more equitable sharing of opportunities and entitlements to widen the access to adequate food, and a faster growth in available food supplies, hence DES. While improved access is the key everywhere, there is no alternative to raising food supplies in those countries where the average DES is so low that a large proportion of the population is undernourished while a minority of the remainder enjoys food consumption above recommended levels. Such countries are also mainly dependent on agriculture as an economic mainstay.
A DES level of 2 700 Calories corresponds to a situation where, under fairly equitable access to food supplies, undernutrition can be reduced to 3 percent or less of the population. But many countries are expected not to be able to reach this DES level by the year 2010, and together they would host 3 billion people of whom nearly 550 million are expected to be undernourished. Indeed, for those among them who have at present very low DES, to reach a target of 2 700 Calories by the year 2010 would require aggregate food consumption to grow at 5 percent per annum, or even more, depending on population trends. This level of growth implies overall economic prospects far above those currently considered to be a reasonable expectation in many of these countries. (For example, the latest World Bank assessment foresees a per caput income growth of only 0.9 percent per annum in sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the countries with very low DES are found.) This paper analyses the nature, conditions and implications of an achievable target for reducing undernutrition, given these considerations.
The additional amount of global food production required to meet the implied increased demand is small � for instance, 2 percent of global cereal consumption in the year 2010 for this component of the food basket. However, this modest global amount results from the fast growth of aggregate food supplies in several low-DES countries. Empirical evidence from the past demonstrates that a number of countries, over time spans of one to two decades, as is relevant here for comparison, have been able to achieve fast growth in food consumption and/or production, in most cases during periods of recovery from crises. Many of the countries with a need for accelerated growth of food supplies in the future start from crisis or near-crisis situations reflecting to a large extent the confluence of adverse factors (war or warlike conditions or natural, economic or policy disasters). Eventual recovery from such conditions can create the prerequisites for success in policies to improve food security at an accelerated pace.
The accelerated growth of food supplies in low-DES countries is analysed as requiring a combination of faster and more equitable growth of incomes, particularly more vigorous agricultural and rural development, as is fit for countries with a high dependence on agriculture, and special improvements in social support and food assistance. Domestic food production and net imports must contribute to further progress beyond that projected in the FAO study World agriculture: towards 2010 (WAT 2010) (FAO, 1995).
The paper concludes that it is feasible and realistic to target a reduction in the number of undernourished by the year 2010 to about half the level of the early 1990s, by ensuring that all countries that would not have otherwise reached the level of 2 700 Calories achieve accelerated growth of per caput food supplies at 1 percent per year, modulated to secure a minimum of 2 300 Calories in any country, and considering 2 700 Calories as a level that allows further progress through less inequality of access in priority over even higher supplies.
The target so defined would reduce undernutrition in the developing countries to some 440 million by the year 2010, and this number could be further diminished through more equitable access, in countries above the 2 700-Calorie target as well. But this should not be understood as implying that the baseline projection described in WFS companion paper 1 will itself be achieved without determined and well-adjusted policies at all levels.
The causes of food insecurity are many and interrelated. Policy responses to the problem will vary among countries, but some generalizations as to the essential ingredients of success can be made (see WFS companion papers 1, 2 and 3). Among the factors that determine growth in food requirements, population, in combination with the different dietary patterns that prevail around the world, will be dominant until stabilization is reached (see WFS companion paper 4).
Peace in society and among nations is foremost. Governance, transparency, participation and progress in equality between men and women are factors of equity, efficiency and social stability. The full potential of private initiatives needs to be unleashed within an enabling policy environment that depends upon macroeconomic stability (see WFS companion paper 3).
The role of government in the provision of public goods � directly or indirectly through independent agents as required for effectiveness and efficiency � for infrastructure, research, education and health and in the creation of conditions for well-functioning markets for goods, services and factors, cannot be substituted (see WFS companion papers 3, 8, 9 and 10).
The alleviation of poverty and its eventual eradication are prime conditions for achieving sustainable food security at the household level. An economic policy conducive to job opportunities with fair rewards for work; a broadened and secure access to productive resources, especially land and water; and a social policy that develops human skills and capabilities, with particular attention to rural areas and people, are basic elements under any society�s conditions. For food insecurity to be abated, people-centred policies need to address the multifaceted causes and manifestations of malnutrition at the local and individual level, with a clear focus on women as the critical link in the nutrition complex (see WFS companion papers 2, 3, 5 and 6).
The number of food-insecure people is and will remain in the hundreds of millions for years. Food assistance, in forms that avoid the evils of wastage, dependency and economic unsustainability, will need to be provided through mobilization of governments, society and international solidarity. Preparedness for and timely reaction to emergencies remain a priority, with emphasis on the transition from relief to recovery and development (see WFS companion papers 5 and 13).
The vital role of trade, both domestic and international, in fostering food security needs to be recognized, while the flow of food from surplus to deficit areas and the exchange of goods and services to the mutual benefit of trading partners need to be facilitated. The social costs of trade-induced economic shocks to sectors or regions are nevertheless real: the vulnerable and food-insecure cannot be left without support for the sake of new opportunities created for others (see WFS companion paper 12).
Sustainable agricultural and rural development policies are essential for attaining universal food security; they are needed to make food production possible at affordable prices on the basis of environmentally sound management of natural resources. Balancing the priorities for environmentally sustainable and economically efficient rapid advances in food production from high-potential areas, with those of enabling agriculture-dependent populations in low-potential areas to enhance their on- and off-farm income-earning opportunities and access to food without degrading the resource base, is a necessity. The concepts of the new green revolution, the more efficient utilization and control of water, and the adaptation of the whole food chain infrastructure and management to the changes brought about by rapid urbanization in particular, have an essential role to play (see WFS companion papers 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 11).
The aggregate resources for net investment in developing countries for primary agricultural production, the post-production sectors, rural infrastructure and human development, are not dramatically above past levels, but their regional distribution shows greatly increased needs in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, while gross investment has to increase in order to face the replacement of a growing capital stock (see WFS companion paper 10). The present paper shows that, in countries with currently very low levels of DES and high undernutrition, such investments would have to be some 20 to 30 percent above the levels required in the WAT2010 projections in order to sustain the accelerated agricultural growth needed in these countries so that rural poverty is reduced and food supplies are augmented as required by the still modest target of 2 300 to 2700 Calories by the year 2010 as discussed above.
Policies are essential to create the conditions for private resources, the main source, to flow and produce yields as required. Public investment has, however, an indispensable role to play, and sectoral allocations must reflect the need to redress the costly neglect of agriculture and rural development in past priorities. Stronger, more efficient and refocused agricultural research is identified as a key priority for food production, poverty reduction and improved food security (see WFS companion papers 9 and 10).
The incidence of undernutrition is the percentage of the population that lacks access to enough food to meet dietary energy supply (DES) requirements (in Calories). Although the proportion of the world�s population that is chronically undernourished is expected to decrease, as it has done over the last few decades, undernutrition is still widespread, particularly in certain regions. Furthermore, projections to the year 2010 suggest that little change in the absolute number of chronically undernourished people is likely unless determined, concerted action is taken.
Population growth is the major reason for increased food requirements and puts additional pressure on the natural resources (see map on land degradation). Countries with rapid population growth face especially difficult challenges in ensuring food security. The early stabilization of the world�s population is a condition for sustainable food security. (Source: United Nations)
The dietary composition of food consumption patterns differs widely across regions. Population level changes, associated with each dietary group, vary greatly. Dietary patterns within countries also change slowly over time.
While levels of DES (average food energy supply per caput per day, measured in Calories) have increased substantially as a world average since 1970, in many countries they remain very low. Unless determined efforts alter the course of events, chronic undernutrition and other forms of malnutrition will remain widespread in the decades ahead.
Vitamin A deficiency is one of the most critical malnutrition problems, resulting mainly from an insufficient diversity in the diet. The number of preschool children living in areas where vitamin A deficiency and its consequences (blindness, increased mortality and decreased immunity) occur is estimated at around 200 million. Every year 250 000 to 500 000 children become blind because of this deficiency; two-thirds die within a few months afterwards. (Source: World Health Organization)
An environment conducive to equitably shared economic growth is essential to reducing poverty and enabling each and every person to have access to food. Very low gross domestic product (GDP) per caput and widespread chronic undernutrition are generally associated with a dependence on agriculture as a major economic sector, shown by a high share of agricultural GDP in total GDP (and a high ratio of rural to urban population). Economic progress in the agricultural sector is crucial to raising incomes of the poor and contributing to increasing food supplies. (Source: World Bank)
The vast majority of countries have experienced substantial growth in total food production over the past decades, and global food supplies have expanded faster than the world�s population without an increase in the long-term trend of relative food prices. Research, investment and suitable policies are the key towards meeting the future food needs of the world.
Food production has kept ahead of population growth globally, but not in all countries. Many countries have little capacity to face growing food import bills (see map on food import dependency).
Because of such factors as the green revolution, impressive progress has been achieved in increasing cereals productivity over
the last 30 years. This progress, however, is not equal across all regions. Continued progress depends on maintaining
agricultural research and education, with careful attention to grassroots participation and sustainable development. While this
map illustrates only one major category of food (cereals supply 51 percent of Calories and 47 percent of protein in the
average diet), productivity increases are imperative in all other food groups as well. The research agenda is as broad as it is
important.
Irrigated land can yield three to ten times more food value (through increased yields or higher-value crops) than rain-fed land. The efficient use of both current and potential irrigation sources, as well as the improvement of water control in general, is essential for increasing agricultural productivity as well as decreasing production variability.
Water utilization intensity varies considerably within, as well as between, countries. The use of over 100 percent of renewable water in some areas suggests that water has become a production constraint where water sources are being depleted faster than they can be recharged. At the other extreme, low utilization suggests that potential may exist for better use of water. Agriculture is a major user of water in certain countries. Increasing levels of competing uses, from urban users, for example, makes the efficient use of water imperative. Better technologies and policies, and the means and incentives to implement them, will increase the efficiency of water use in agriculture and food production.
Human activities have often led to degradation of the world�s land resources, which are the basis for sustained food security. The global assessment of human-induced soil degradation (GLASOD) has shown that damage has occurred on 15 percent of the world�s total land area (13 percent light and moderate, 2 percent severe and very severe), mainly resulting from erosion, nutrient decline, salinization and physical compaction. These impacts frequently lead to reductions in yields. Land conservation and rehabilitation are essential parts of sustainable agricultural development. While severely degraded soil is found in most regions of the world, the negative economic impact of degraded soil may be most severe in the countries most dependent on agriculture for their incomes. (Source: GLASOD)
Fish is an important source of food protein, and fisheries and aquaculture are critical to food security in many countries, particularly among poor communities in coastal areas. However, overexploitation threatens many stocks, marine and freshwater, partly because of the open access conditions that still prevail in fisheries. Effective conservation and sustainable management of both marine and inland fisheries are needed at national and international levels so that living aquatic resources can continue to meet global nutritional needs. In addition, inland fisheries and aquaculture can be further developed.
Around the world, forests are a vital source of income, employment, food, shelter, environmental protection and other benefits. In many areas the rate of deforestation has reached a worrying pace. Improved management of forests needs to emphasize sustainable forest use.
All countries use imports to varying extents to satisfy the quantity and diversity of the food demands of their populations; for poor countries where food imports are a large share of a country�s total trade, food security is conditioned by the capacity to obtain food through imports.
The populations of many food-insecure countries are predominantly rural. However, urbanization takes place at a rapid pace in developing countries, and more than 60 million inhabitants are added every year to cities and towns. The consequences of rural to urban migration are of concern in many countries. The transformation of production, processing, marketing, transportation and distribution induced by rapid urbanization represents a major challenge for the entire food sector. (Source: United Nations)
Trade allows countries to exchange what they have for what they need. Freer trade contributes to economic growth, overall income and employment over time. However, this contribution is not automatic, and some groups may not benefit in the short term. For aggregate welfare to increase, a country needs adaptable production systems and incentive policies, as well as the means to protect those peole who will suffer from the adjustment costs of moving towards freer trade. (Source: United Nations)
Civil strife and armed conflicts often produce refugees and are a major cause of food insecurity, impeding future progress towards food security. Major refugee movements can cause food security problems both among the refugees themselves and in the receiving areas. A peaceful world is a basic requirement for food security. (Source: Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)
International food aid is indispensable to emergency relief in times of crisis, and it can be an important source of support to development activities when care is taken to ensure that markets continue to provide an incentive for food producers to increase their production. Based on experience in assessing the impact of food aid, new ways have been devised to provide assistance for coping with food crises that minimize the possible negative effects on the recipient countries� agricultural sector and prevent the development of unsustainable food consumption habits.
