|
FAO GLOBAL INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME |
(Circulated only for countries where foodcrops or supply situation conditions give rise to concern)
Following a strong recovery in 1998, Afghanistan's cereal production suffered a setback in 1999 due to late and erratic spring rains, shortages of irrigation water as a result of the mildest winter in 40 years with very low snowfall, and high incidence of yellow rust and sunnpest that damaged crops in the north and west of the country. The situation took a serious adverse turn in 2000 with a countrywide severe drought as a consequence of lack of rains and very little snowfall in winter. It is against this background that an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, supported by UNDP, was fielded to Afghanistan from end-April to end-May to estimate the 2000 cereal harvest and cereal import requirement, including food aid needs, for the marketing year 2000/01.
The Mission visited 17 provinces in different regions of the country. To support the work of the Mission, WFP fielded survey teams of national agronomists to collect detailed information on crop production and livestock situation. These teams carried out sample surveys in 28 out of 31 provinces. The Mission also benefited from discussion with UN agencies, multilateral and bilateral donors, Afghan authorities, and many NGOs. Available relevant reports and documents were reviewed. Area and yield estimates for various crops in different regions were based on field visits involving interviews with farmers and crop cutting where feasible, data generated by survey teams, and discussions with UN and NGO personnel knowledgeable about particular regions and areas.
During its extensive field visits, the Mission observed that rainfed crops (wheat and barley) had almost totally failed, except in a few pockets in different regions. Irrigated cereal production was also severely affected by drought, resulting in an estimated reduction of (irrigated) wheat production by some 33 percent compared to 1999. The production of secondary crops (rice, maize, barley) is also estimated to have declined by 53 percent compared to 1999 and 66 percent compared to 1998. The Mission thus estimates the 2000 total cereal production at 1.82 million tonnes - down by 44 percent compared to 1999 and by 53 percent compared to 1998. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at a record high level of 2.3 million tonnes, more than double last year's volume of 1.1 million tonnes. A generous estimate of commercial cereal imports of about 1 million tonnes, some 31 percent higher than the estimate for last year, leaves a huge gap of 1.3 million tonnes. WFP emergency food aid, in pipeline and under mobilization, amounts to 225 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered gap of over 1.0 million tonnes. A shortfall of this magnitude, if unmet, could have disastrous implications for the population.
Millions of Afghans of all categories - sedentary, transhumant and nomad - have little or no access to food through markets and their access to food through self production has been severely undermined by drought. Their purchasing power has been seriously eroded by the lack of employment opportunities within and outside agriculture, decline in cash crop production such as onions, potatoes, almonds, apricots and poppy (that provides employment for many even though for a short period of time) and the poor condition and high rates of mortality of livestock. The situation is likely to worsen in the coming months as the few remaining coping mechanisms are exhausted. In Afghanistan, rains normally start in October/November. Even if precipitation improves in the next season, wheat harvests will not be available until May/June 2001. However, if rains fail again the magnitude and dimensions of the needs for `life saving' alone would be enormous.
It may be stressed that the positive move this year in terms of reduced acreage under poppy, as a result of the efforts of the international community backed by Afghan authorities and facilitated by the drought, may be reversed next year unless people get assistance to have access to food and to find viable alternative economic opportunities, which are becoming increasingly scarce.
Afghanistan is a landlocked country of 652 000 square km. It is strategically located, being bounded by the Central Asian Plains and mountains of the CIS countries (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan) to the north, China to the north-east, Pakistan to the east and south, and the Islamic Republic of Iran to the west. Only about 12 percent of the country's total land is arable, with 3 percent under forest cover, about 46 percent under permanent pastures, and the rest (39 percent) being mountains.
Manufacturing and export sectors have been virtually destroyed by nearly two decades of civil strife. Transportation and communication systems are in extremely poor shape. Agricultural infrastructure, also severely damaged during the civil strife, has generally continued to deteriorate further in the absence of necessary rehabilitation programmes.
Domestic trade is operational throughout the country, and cross-border trade with neighbouring countries, particularly with Turkmenistan in the north, the Islamic Republic of Iran in the west and Pakistan in the east and south, has been quite brisk. However, Afghanistan's economy is virtually without a direction in the absence of a macro-economic framework. Budgetary operations are defunct and there are no banks operating in the country. But there are authorised money changers who provide certain financial services. Exchange rate has been steeply declining. There are two types of Afs - one used in the north and north-east and the other in the rest of the country. The former has declined from about 16 000 Afs to US$1 in 1996 to about 111 000 Afs to US$1 in May 2000 and the latter from about 15 000 Afs in 1996 to about 56 000 Afs in May 2000 (see Figure 1).
Note: Since 1996 two different exchange rates are used in the country - one in the North/N-E and another in the rest of the country (see text)
Agriculture is the mainstay of Afghanistan's economy. It is the main source of national output and employment. In fact, some 85 percent of the country's estimated 21.9 million people are directly dependent on agriculture. But, after registering an appreciable recovery in the wake of relative peace in most parts of the country recently, agriculture has been hit badly by drought. While parts of the country were affected by drought last year, the whole country is under its grip this year.
About half of the cultivable area is irrigated, while the other half is arid or rainfed. Wheat is the main food crop, accounting for more than three quarters of food grain production. Other important food crops include rice, maize and barley. Potatoes and various fruit crops are also produced, both for domestic consumption and as cash crops. Afghan dried fruits (mainly almonds and apricots) accounted for 60 percent of the world market in 1982, but declined to around 16 percent in 1990; the share is much lower now, but the products are still important foreign exchange earners.
At the peak of civil strife in the 1990s, an estimated 30 percent of the population fled the country or became internally displaced (IDPs). With appreciable peace prevailing in most parts of the country, most of the remaining 3 million or so refugees outside the country, as of last year, were expected to return during the current year. But this year's drought, with the consequent severe impact on agriculture and life in general, has slowed the process down in a major way. Refugees are not now returning from Pakistan at all, while around 1 200 are returning from the Islamic Republic of Iran every week, although the proposed weekly number of returnees was 3 000. It has been reported to the Mission that many IDPs have settled down in places where they camped or returned to their original villages, but others have not yet been able to settle.
The international community remains active in Afghanistan in trying to broker a lasting peace settlement, as well as providing relief, rehabilitation and development (particularly agriculture). For example, FAO, WFP, UNOPS and UNDCP have been implementing several projects in the agricultural sector; UNHCR is active in assisting refugees to meet their immediate needs on return and to settle down; and WFP has been providing emergency relief to people in urgent need of food assistance.
Given that a properly functioning and well organized government is yet to be fully established, the United Nations System is addressing the transition to recovery in Afghanistan under the Common Programming Approach, based on an agreed Strategic Framework for the country, the purpose of which is "to enhance the synergy between the United Nations political strategy in the country and the international assistance activities, and to promote greater effectiveness and coherence in the international assistance programme". Within the framework of agreed "Next Steps" there has been an evolution of assistance from being strictly "life saving" to a situation where "windows of opportunity to pursue a rights-based agenda should be pursued when and where they exist". Following the UN consolidated Appeal 1999, in response to which there was generous donor assistance for relief but rehabilitation needs remained neglected, Appeal 2000 has been launched for funding of relief, rehabilitation and development activities (requesting US$235 million for a total of 488 projects). In the current year, though, the collapse of the livelihoods of millions of people caused by drastic crop failure and decimation of livestock is likely to have catastrophic welfare implications. The issue of "life saving" is, this year, the most critical reality in Afghanistan.
The root cause of the food production problems is the extremely low rainfall and snowfall during the past winter and spring. This year, the rains were almost universally late, highly reduced, poorly distributed and finished early; and non-existent in certain areas. The consequence has been a disastrous country-wide drought.
Figure 1 shows 1999/00 data against long term average precipitation in four representative stations located in the eastern, southern, western and north regions of Afghanistan, indicating the depth of the current shortage of rainfall.
Average precipitation was, in most areas, reduced by up to 70 and with peaks of 90 percent. In the northern provinces of the country (the sole area of the country to have some significant precipitation, i.e., 70 percent of the average) rains were abundant in early autumn, but decreased sharply in January and February and ceased in March. Accordingly, the winter rainfed cereals did not have sufficient moisture at crucial plant growth stages and the spring wheat was not planted. The Jalalabad airport rainfall station has recorded a 40 percent precipitation compared to the average, but somewhat useful rains in January and March have contributed to limit the damage to the irrigated wheat crop. In the western part of Nangarhar province, however, irrigated as well as rainfed wheat failed.
The country's irrigation water depends to a large extent on the melting snows that feed the river systems and the irrigation schemes and which also provide the necessary soil moisture in the rainfed areas. This year's reduced rainfall was also accompanied by the mildest winter in record resulting in significant decreases in snowfall. In Ghazni province only 33 percent of normal snowfall has occurred this year. Moreover, there have been increases in the daily minimum temperatures (ranging between three to five degrees Celsius). This has caused untimely and accelerated snow melt in the Hindu Kush heights, augmenting the water flow of the river systems in the north/north-eastern and eastern provinces in mid-May. But, the consequential increased availability of irrigation water has been untimely both for the ripening wheat crop and for the yet to be planted second cereal crop.
This disastrous weather situation throughout the country has resulted this year in a total failure of the rainfed wheat crop and in a very significant drop in the irrigated wheat yield.
Figure 2: Rainfall in Different Regions of Afghanistan, 1999/2000 Crop Season
The area planted under cereals is forecast to decrease by 5 percent compared to 1999.
At autumn planting time, prevailing wheat market prices and the reduced 1999 harvest (than in 1998) were all considered to be indicators leading to a significant expansion of cereal planted area. Indeed, despite the extremely low rainfall and snowfall and consequential water shortage, even the irrigated wheat cropped area has substantially remained the same (-0.5 percent), and the dryland wheat area has even slightly increased by 1.1 percent. The winter rainfed wheat planted area has increased significantly only in the northern region due to the favourable autumn rain regime. Nevertheless, this trend was reversed at spring wheat planting time when rains failed. In most areas there has been no sowing at all of the spring wheat crop.
Given the water shortages, irrigated barley sown area has significantly dropped this year (-31 percent); this crop is not usually used for direct human consumption. Given the failure of the winter wheat crop, wherever a second crop is considered to be feasible like in Kunar, Kunduz and Baghlan provinces, farmers tried to plant paddy. the area planted to paddy this year is forecast to drop by 7 percent compared to last season, due to irrigation water shortage. The area sown to maize is foreseen to decrease by up to 40 percent, although maize crop has low-water requirement. Maize, however, is not usually used for human consumption.
As a result of irrigation water shortage and the absence of rainfall, the estimated areas planted to winter potato and summer pulses have declined steeply by 46 percent and 49 percent respectively.
Seeds:
Variety improvement and identification of best adapted, high yielding and disease resistant varieties, as well as the production of relevant foundation seed, are the responsibility of FAO in Afghanistan. Improved seed was this year made available to some 20 000 farmers through NGOs and contract seed producers in 146 districts. The quantity of improved seed produced every year (3500-4500 tonnes) satisfies some 10 percent of the national requirement of irrigated wheat seed. Farmers yearly plant some 170 000 tonnes of seed on average in some 1.2 million hectares irrigated wheat area and practice a replacement of their planting material every 4 years.
FAO's Food Security through Sustainable Crop Production programme, implemented with a number of local and international NGOs acting as partners, supplied 3 495 tonnes of quality declared wheat seed to farmers. It also provided 925 tonnes of summer crops seeds, mainly paddy, maize and pulses.
Despite this year's drought, FAO, together with the partner NGOs and contract farmers, will still be able to produce around 3800 tonnes of quality declared seed to be provided to the farmers for the next irrigated wheat cropping season. Due to this year's almost complete crop failure in most rainfed areas, there is great concern on the availability of dryland seed for the next planting season.
Fertilizers and Pesticides:
Availability of fertilizers (Urea, DAP and SSP/TSP are the main mineral fertilizers used) was reported to be good. This year's drought has resulted in a decreased fertilizer demand. This was reflected in fertilizer prices as noticed by the Mission in the Kabul and Qandahar markets. Prices, which in October 1999 were reported to be the same as those of the previous year in real terms, were down by 17 percent at the time of the Mission. Normally, application rates of nitrogen for properly irrigated wheat crops are close to the recommended levels: 100 kg/hectare.
The bulk of the fertilizer requirements of the country - the N requirements are estimated to amount to some 500 000 tonnes of Urea equivalent - is covered by imports mainly from Pakistan, Iran and Turkmenistan. The fertilizer factory in Mazar-i-Sharif has a nominal domestic production capacity of 105 000 tonnes per year of Urea from natural gas. At present the factory is reported to work at 70 percent of its capacity.
The drought has resulted in no significant disease or pest outbreak this year, with the only exception of locust attacks in two provinces of the northern region. Availability of herbicides, pesticides and fungicides is problematic throughout the country and it is not an uncommon experience for the farmers to purchase adulterated or expired chemicals from the markets.
Farm Power:
The land preparation operations in irrigated areas are executed, by and large, hiring the services of tractors. The limited availability of tractors in the country and the peak demand at wheat pre-planting time have resulted over the years in an excessive speeding-up of operations and in poor tillage practices. Nine rigid tine cultivator is the most extensively used implement, which operates at limited depths and does not allow for the amelioration of proper soil water retention capacity or the destruction of weed propagation material. Farmers often integrate the mechanical operations with the use of their draught animals. This year no delays in planting time have been reported due to lack of availability of farm power. Nevertheless, weed infestations (such as wild oats, wild rye and reed) have been widely noticed in all irrigated areas, causing significant water competition with food crops, thereby adversely impacting on crop yields.
Irrigation:
Actual yearly irrigated land in Afghanistan amounts to some 1.3-1.4 million hectares (1.9 million hectares in terms of cropped land). Canal systems convey some 80-85 percent of the irrigation water, while the remaining 15-20 percent is fed by the traditional karezes, springs, and wells. Wells are increasing their importance, particularly in the south western provinces of the country. These individually operated sources of irrigation water have proved to be very effective in the last two years of drought, allowing farmers to dig wells to irrigate properly the crops as per plant requirement. Water table has been reported to be dropping in the recent years by 1 meter per year in some specific tubewell areas. Nevertheless, due to the limited exploitation of the groundwater throughout Afghanistan, there is no real concern about water table dropping too deep; and there is still ample scope to develop groundwater irrigation in a sustainable manner. On the other hand, due to this year's extremely low rainfall and, particularly, snowfall, most of the karezes have virtually or effectively dried-up and the more diffused collective canal irrigation systems have suffered considerable shortages of water. The heads of the networks were found to be functioning well in many areas, while the middle and tail reaches have been receiving irrigation water only once or twice during the entire season. The country's entire irrigation infrastructure is in extremely poor condition due to lack of maintenance, natural wear and tear, and man-made breakage; and in some cases also as a result of inappropriate design and system expansion. The efforts of the international community through UNOPS for the rehabilitation of the infrastructure, particularly in Qandahar and Farah provinces (south-west and west regions), have succeeded in bringing back some 35 000 hectares to irrigation. Another 15 000 hectares of irrigated land has been reclaimed in Kabul, Bamyan, Balkh and Badagshan provinces. Some 60 percent of this irrigated land was recovered in the 1999/2000 growing season.
Much remains to be done not only for the canal irrigation infrastructures but also in terms of cleaning and clearing stones and sediments accumulated over the years in the karezes which are the sole source of irrigation water in remote areas far from rivers. This year, more than ever the obstructed network was not able to convey the reduced available water in the sources, causing the failure of the relevant wheat crop.
Wheat: This year, the production of the irrigated wheat crop is expected to be of 1.329 million tonnes, declining by about 33 percent from the 1.988 million tonnes produced in 1999. The reduced production is entirely to be attributed to the insufficient irrigation water available to the plant at its most crucial stages (tillering, head development, flowering and early yield formation) throughout the country. Yields have been higher in few areas of the country: in the eastern provinces of Kunar and Laghman, in the central provinces of Bamyan and Ghor (where an expansion in cropped area has contributed to keep the production level), in the central eastern provinces of Wardak and Logar and in the northern provinces of Baghlan and Kunduz. In these areas, a somewhat better rainfall pattern or water flow in the irrigation system has mitigated the overall respective regional situation. In all other provinces, as noticed directly through crop cutting exercises, the yields were normal only at the head reaches of the canal irrigated system.
The lack of effective precipitation has caused the near failure of rainfed wheat production throughout the country. This year's production of rainfed wheat is estimated at 140 000 tonnes i.e. only 27 percent of the 1999 rainfed wheat production and 17 percent of that in 1998. As observed by the Mission, particularly in the major rainfed producing areas (the western, northern and, far behind in terms of sown area importance in the south western regions), wherever there has been some vegetative growth, tillering was extremely low (1-3 tillers), heading was very limited and the ripe spikes had few and small grains. Yield estimations have been confirmed by crop cutting experiments in various locations. The absence of rains during spring, which is the most water sensitive period for the wheat crop, has annihilated the effect of the somewhat good autumn rains that occurred in the northern provinces. The best yield performing areas of some significance in terms of acreage have been the central provinces of Bamyan and Ghor where the production is estimated to be the same as that of last year, but last year's production was 77 percent down compared to the 1998 production.
Other factors affecting wheat yields have not been influential this year. No outbreaks of common diseases like yellow and strip rust were reported. Sunn pest which is a common threat was not a problem this year. In the northern provinces of Samangan and Baghlan locust attacks were observed by the Mission.
Paddy: The expected output is 156 000 tonnes, about 44 percent down from the 1999 production level due to reduction in both cropped area and yields, in turn caused by shortage of irrigation water. Paddy transplanting was underway during the Mission's stay in Baghlan (northern region) and in Laghman (eastern region) provinces. Despite water shortages, farmers' preferences for the rice crop will be maintained to the extent possible; this crop is usually sold by farmers and not retained for self-consumption.
Maize: Maize is used mainly as feed. This year the plantings are forecast to be reduced by 40 percent compared to last year. The production is expected to be 115 000 tonnes, about 48 percent of last year's level.
Barley: Based on direct field observations, the Mission estimates a total failure of the rainfed crop and an overall output reduction of 64 percent due to reduced cropped area and extremely low yields in irrigated areas.
The details of the Mission estimate of cereal production in 2000 are shown in Table 1.
Table 1 - Afghanistan: Area, Yield and Production of Cereals by Region, 1998 and 1999 and the forecast for 2000
|
REGION
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
||||||||||||
|
Area
('000 ha) |
Yield (tonnes/
ha) |
Production ('000 tonnes)
|
Area
('000 ha) |
Yield (tonnes/
ha) |
Production ('000tonnes)
|
Area
('000 ha) |
Area comparison 2000/1999
|
Area comparison 2000/1998
(%) |
Yield (tonnes/ha)
|
Production
('000tonnes) |
Production comparison 2000/1999
(%) |
Production comparison 2000/1998
(%) |
|||
|
Wheat Irrigated
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Central
|
69
|
1.7
|
117
|
70
|
1.6
|
112
|
77
|
110
|
112
|
1.25
|
96
|
86
|
82
|
||
|
North-East
|
200
|
1.6
|
320
|
200
|
1.6
|
320
|
188
|
94
|
94
|
1.1
|
207
|
65
|
65
|
||
|
East
|
75
|
1.7
|
128
|
72
|
2.1
|
151
|
66
|
92
|
88
|
1.8
|
119
|
79
|
93
|
||
|
South
|
95
|
1.5
|
143
|
92
|
1.4
|
129
|
95
|
103
|
100
|
0.9
|
86
|
66
|
60
|
||
|
South-West
|
270
|
1.7
|
459
|
260
|
1.9
|
494
|
274
|
105
|
101
|
1.1
|
301
|
61
|
66
|
||
|
West
|
190
|
1.9
|
361
|
184
|
1.9
|
350
|
176
|
96
|
93
|
1.0
|
176
|
50
|
49
|
||
|
North
|
280
|
1.5
|
420
|
274
|
1.4
|
384
|
265
|
97
|
95
|
1.1
|
292
|
76
|
69
|
||
|
East-Central
|
55
|
1.3
|
72
|
44
|
1.1
|
48
|
48
|
109
|
87
|
1.1
|
53
|
109
|
74
|
||
|
Total
|
1 234
|
1.6
|
2 020
|
1 196
|
1.66
|
1 988
|
1 189
|
99
|
96
|
1.12
|
1 329
|
67
|
66
|
||
|
Wheat Rainfed
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Central
|
20
|
0.9
|
18
|
5
|
0.2
|
1
|
3
|
60
|
15
|
0.2
|
1
|
60
|
3
|
||
|
North-East
|
260
|
0.7
|
182
|
260
|
0.5
|
130
|
250
|
96
|
96
|
0.2
|
50
|
38
|
27
|
||
|
East
|
10
|
0.9
|
9
|
5
|
0.4
|
2
|
4
|
80
|
40
|
0.3
|
1
|
60
|
13
|
||
|
South
|
42
|
0.8
|
34
|
10
|
0.4
|
4
|
8
|
80
|
19
|
0.1
|
1
|
20
|
2
|
||
|
South-West
|
90
|
0.9
|
81
|
66
|
0.5
|
33
|
55
|
83
|
61
|
0.1
|
6
|
17
|
7
|
||
|
West
|
230
|
1
|
230
|
220
|
0.8
|
176
|
220
|
100
|
96
|
0.1
|
22
|
13
|
10
|
||
|
North
|
250
|
0.9
|
225
|
225
|
0.7
|
158
|
260
|
116
|
104
|
0.2
|
52
|
33
|
23
|
||
|
East-Central
|
50
|
0.7
|
35
|
40
|
0.2
|
8
|
40
|
100
|
80
|
0.2
|
8
|
100
|
23
|
||
|
Total
|
952
|
0.9
|
814
|
831
|
0.62
|
512
|
840
|
101
|
88
|
0.17
|
140
|
27
|
17
|
||
|
All Wheat
|
2 186
|
2 834
|
2 027
|
2 499
|
2 029
|
100
|
93
|
1 469
|
|||||||
|
Secondary Crops
|
|||||||||||||||
|
Paddy
|
180
|
2.5
|
450
|
140
|
2
|
280
|
130
|
93
|
72
|
1.2
|
156
|
56
|
35
|
||
|
Maize
|
200
|
1.65
|
330
|
160
|
1.5
|
240
|
96
|
60
|
48
|
1.2
|
115
|
48
|
35
|
||
|
Barley (for Grain)
|
200
|
1.2
|
240
|
180
|
1.2
|
216
|
124
|
69
|
62
|
0.6
|
74
|
34
|
31
|
||
|
Total
|
580
|
1 020
|
480
|
736
|
350
|
73
|
60
|
346
|
47
|
34
|
|||||
|
TOTAL CEREALS
|
2 766
|
3 854
|
2 507
|
3 236
|
2 379
|
95
|
86
|
1 815
|
56
|
47
|
|||||
Vegetables: Some 6 percent of the irrigated area is planted with vegetable crops. Melon, water melon, onion, potato and tomato crops cover 90 percent of the vegetable area in Afghanistan. This year's production is estimated to be down by some 35 percent from the previous year. The cropped area has decreased significantly as farmers' cropping preference is for wheat in order to allow for the full utilization of limited water resources. Moreover, main planting time for vegetables is in spring and at this time there was full awareness about irrigation water shortages.
Fruit: The fruit tree horticultural area has been estimated by a recent FAO survey to cover around 10 percent of the overall irrigated area. Grapes, Almonds, Apricots, Pomegranate and Apple trees cover 87 percent of the area under fruits. The Mission observed in the major fruit producing areas that the tree crops were suffering from water shortages as indicated by heavy flower and fruit drops. Nevertheless, fruit trees are obviously considered costly investments to be protected and the farmers have tended to use much of this year's available irrigation water towards ensuring survival of trees and mitigation of losses. Accordingly, no major capital loss in terms of plantation drying is foreseen but production will be low with small calibre fruits. The expected high sugar content and the reduced supply will probably fetch good sale prices.
Poppy: According to UNDCP, during the 1998/99 season an estimated 91 000 hectares were devoted to opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, yielding some 4 581 tonnes of opium. Helmand province cultivated 44 600 hectares i.e. 49 percent of the entire poppy cropped area, followed by Nangarhar with 23 000 hectares (25 percent); the remaining area is cropped in other provinces of the south western and eastern regions and partly in the north-north eastern regions. At the time this Mission was in the field, UNDCP was running a survey in order to assess the production and planted area in the current season. The Mission was able to perform its own evaluation based on discussions held with primary and secondary informants as well as on its own field observations. Accordingly, the Mission estimates a significant decrease (-20 percent) in the cropped area in Helmand province and a stable acreage in Nangahar province. The reasons behind the reduction in area under poppy this year include: (a) a second - and worse - consecutive year of irrigation water shortages, leading to a reduced production of a high cost crop; (b) substitution by food crops that require less water; (c) the sanctions imposed on the country and farmers' fear of food shortages; (d) the Taliban instruction to reduce by 1/3rd the area under poppy and , (e) the positive results of the UN-UNDCP activities in reducing opium production. At the same time, the yield this year is estimated to drop by some 30-40 percent due to the severe water shortages in the two main producing provinces and to significant aphid attacks (the latter directly observed by the Mission). For the positive trend on acreage reduction is to continue in the next growing season, much will depend on the aid the international community will provide this year in terms of food and towards developing alternative coping mechanisms. Left to themselves, farmers will probably find poppy cultivation to be the most effective coping mechanism.
Based on FAO's most recent headcount exercises in 28 provinces of the country, the 1999 estimated animal population in Afghanistan is as given in the following table:
Animal
|
Farmers
|
%
|
Kuchies (Nomads)
|
%
|
Total
|
Cattle
|
3 373 532
|
97
|
104 017
|
3
|
3 477 549
|
Sheep
|
9 257 514
|
52
|
8 432 908
|
48
|
17 690 422
|
Goat
|
5 248 208
|
71
|
2 124 685
|
29
|
7 372 893
|
Donkeys
|
752 474
|
82
|
167 466
|
18
|
919 940
|
Camels
|
81 590
|
28
|
208 794
|
72
|
290 384
|
Horses
|
91 601
|
88
|
12 553
|
12
|
104 154
|
With reference to statistics available on livestock population prior to 1978, the recovery rates during the last five years have been considerable: 82 percent for sheep, 96 percent for cattle and camel, 69 percent for donkeys and mules. Goat population has more than doubled, preference being given to this species as a means of food security due to its lower feed requirements and high milk productivity.
This year, the failure of the winter desert ranges in the south-western region (Registan areas of Helmand and Qandahar) and the insufficient vegetation growth of edible biomass in most highland pastures in the western and southern regions during the spring, compounded by the paucity of available drinking water, have resulted in extremely high losses to the animal stock of the nomadic (kuchies) sheep, goat and camel holders. The situation has disrupted the traditional routes of the nomads, creating disorientation and early (30-40 days) movements from the winter and spring grazing areas (both from south-west and east) towards the summer highland and mountainous grazings of the central region (Ghazni, Urozgan, Ghor and Paktika), where overgrazing by higher concentration of animals on this year's lower yielding pastures is anticipated to create problems in the coming months. Dried up pastures in the traditional southern (Zabul and part of Ghazni) and eastern (Paktia, Logar) spring quarters, have obliged some kuchie groups (mainly the small holders) unable to continue towards summer quarters, to direct the stocks towards Kabul in order to sell their surviving stock.
Livestock offtake and mortality rates, due to starvation and dehydration, averaging at 67 percent were reported to the Mission by interviewed kuchies in the south-south-western provinces, which account for some 50 percent of the overall stock held by this category i.e., 5.5 million. In the western and eastern provinces (3.5 million stock) relatively lower average mortality rates of 50 percent have been reported. These rates are likely to escalate in the following summer months. The overall number of affected kuchie families is estimated to be 80 000.
Sedentary farmers in the canal and well water source irrigated areas, by and large, have been able to maintain their stocks, given availability of fodder integrated with crop residues and weeds. Mortality rates here are reportedly in the range of 10 to 20 percent. Areas irrigated by the traditional karezes and springs (Helmand, Qandahar, Farah, Ghazni, Zabul, Kabul, Nangarhar and Jauzjan), which this year are providing negligible quantities of water or have dried up, have been unable to produce proper fodder and availability of straw, hay and grains for animals is likely to be reduced in view of sharply decreased wheat/barley crops. In such areas, farmers have indicated average animal losses of 56 percent. The reference stock population is estimated to be 1 million small ruminants held by 65 000 families.
In the northern provinces, although the lowland pastures have suffered and have dried up earlier than normal, the main upland pasture areas appear not to have been badly affected. The overall livestock situation of the semi-nomadic and transhumant production systems in this region (3.5 million small ruminant population) was noted to be under control, with mortality rates ranging between 20-25 percent. Abundant fallow land in the irrigated plains is also utilized for grazing purposes. However, grazing competition will be high, negatively affecting the quality of biomass production in the following year. In main rainfed areas (western and northern region), the small number of animals held by farmers, as noticed by the Mission, had poor body conditions. Grazing on failed rainfed cereals, dryness of available pastures and scarcity of water have resulted in high mortality rates.
Both kuchies and farmers suffering from lower levels of production and unable to raise credit to purchase foodstuff, sought to sell early their slaughter and breeding stocks at lower weights, thus depressing market prices and lowering their earning potential. Logic suggests that meat prices are likely to rise later in the year but by that time only a few large scale farmers and livestock speculators are likely to have stock to sell.
Associated with the mortality rates and stock losses indicated above, this year's reduced pasture and fodder availability has resulted in:
To counterbalance high mortality rates and decreased carrying capacities of pastures and in order to enable maintenance of smaller flocks, sheep and goat holders are selling breeding and cull ewes, depressing the market prices down to Afs 200 000-300 000 from the Afs 1.5-2.0 million that prevailed last year.
Domestic production of sheep and goat milk is estimated by the Mission to be down by some 60-70 percent from the previous year. High mortality and sale rates are expected to result in a shortfall of home produced sheep/goat meat in the following three to four years.
Livestock production largely depends on grazing for 10 to 11 months round the year. The quality of the Afghan pasture areas is likely to be endangered in the future, because of impoverishment of most edible and quality vegetation resulting from high overgrazing this year. The livestock population, as reported for 1999, approached the maximum carrying capacity (0.5-1.25 ewe equivalent per hectare). The reduction of the animal population might be paradoxically regarded as beneficial for the pastures and should be helpful in improving grazing and pasture management.
this year's rainfed wheat area increased by 5 percent (from 480 000 hectares to 510 000 hectares), while the production has dropped by 65 percent in comparison to 1999. High expectations, given good rains starting in autumn and the low production experienced in the previous year, induced farmers to increase their rainfed winter wheat plantations. Cessation of rainfall in the spring interrupted spring wheat sowing and significantly reduced the rainfed cereal yields. The standing crop is left mostly for livestock grazing as it is neither fit as seed for next season's planting nor for human consumption.
Security is still an issue in this area and accordingly the cultivable area is limited. Thus the dryland expansion occurs mainly within the secured inhabited areas, despite its negative environmental impact: the Mission observed cultivation on very steep slopes and the destruction of wood vegetation with consequent high risk of soil erosion.
The region is by and large irrigated through river-fed canal systems. Extensive irrigation is practised, with low volumes of water, leaving large fallow areas in rotation every two to three years in the provinces towards west. In these areas (from Faryab to Balkh/Samangan), the river system depends on the snow melting in a mountainous catchment with lower heights compared to the more eastern provinces (from Baghlan to Badakhshan) depending on the Hindu Kush. This year's extremely low snowfall and the snow catchment differentiation have reduced yield levels of irrigated wheat crop with area variations. Moreover, the paucity of water feeding the irrigation schemes has disrupted the equilibrium of the traditional "mirab" regulated water user organization. The head reach irrigators have used up more water, causing the downstream water users to receive inadequate water and also fewer irrigation shifts. Crop husbandry and farmers' overall economic conditions are among the poorest in the country, resulting in low input use and inadequate means of production and thus in mediocre yields even in normal years. In comparison with 1999, irrigated wheat planted area is estimated to have dropped by 4.5 percent due to water shortages, while production has decreased by 30 percent.
The western region, together with the north and north-eastern regions has the largest share of the rainfed cultivated area. Dryland wheat area has remained largely unchanged at 220 000 hectares, while the production dropped drastically by 87 percent compared to the previous year. The irrigated area has dropped somewhat (-4 percent), but yielded only 50 percent of the production of last year, implying the lowest regional performance in the entire country. The relatively higher share of depressed karezes-fed irrigation systems in Farah and Badghis (30-40 percent of the total irrigated area) and the extremely low water flow in the canal irrigation systems were the main causes of such poor performance of the wheat crop.
Farmers have reportedly increased irrigated wheat area (+7 percent) in these provinces due to favourable wheat prices with respect to the previous year and the price of onion, a competing crop. The onion cultivators experienced a bumper crop in 1999 that significantly depressed prices. A new influx of returnees has also contributed to an increase in the cropped area. The Mission observed extremely poor performance wherever the irrigation system was fed by the karezes (in Ghazni, the karezes account for 60 percent of the irrigation system). The total overall irrigated wheat production in these regions is estimated to have decreased by 19 percent in comparison to last year.
The irrigated cropped area has decreased by 8 percent due to lack of autumn rainfall. No crop substitution appears to have taken place, with all other food crops experiencing similar declines in area planted or no changes. There is also no evidence of an increased poppy cropped area, although farmers could perhaps have opted to utilize the limited available water resources for the more remunerative opium poppy. In the Karez-irrigated areas (25 percent, mainly in Nangarhar province) and at the tail of the canal irrigation schemes only 1 to 2 waterings have been provided to the crops, decreasing the overall wheat production significantly (- 21 percent). Similar to the northern region, the canal irrigation schemes of Kunar and Laghman are fed by river systems and catchment areas which have benefited from comparatively better snowfall, and accordingly these areas have performed well in terms of irrigated wheat production.
An increase in wheat area (+5 percent) is to be attributed mainly to the augmented irrigated area as a result of UNOPS rehabilitation scheme in Qandahar. A probable crop substitution of wheat versus poppy and other cash crops (onion, potato and water melon) has occurred as well, farmers preferring the staple food crop that requires less water. Karez fed irrigation systems are significant in this region (30 percent of the entire irrigated area) and accordingly these schemes have badly performed this year: those functioning were conveying 1/10th of the normal water flow. In Helmand, late planted irrigated wheat performed worse than that sown timely. It was reported that farmers who practise a poppy/wheat cropping pattern purposely planted the wheat crop late in order to complete the harvesting of the more important poppy cash crop first.
The cereal balance sheet for 2000/01 (Table 3) is based on the following assumptions:
Wheat
|
Rice (milled)1/
|
Maize
|
Barley
|
Total
| |
Domestic availability
|
1 470
|
104
|
115
|
74
|
1 763
|
Stock drawdown
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Domestic production
|
1 470
|
104
|
115
|
74
|
1 763
|
Total utilisation
|
3 574
|
321
|
115
|
74
|
4 084
|
Food use (required)
|
3 154
|
300
|
40
|
10
|
3 504
|
Animal feed (available)
|
-
|
-
|
49
|
40
|
89
|
Seed (provision)
|
275
|
13
|
7
|
16
|
311
|
Losses (to be sustained)
|
145
|
8
|
19
|
8
|
180
|
Import requirement
|
2 104
|
217
|
-
|
-
|
2 321
|
Commercial import capacity
|
1 000
|
49
|
-
|
-
|
1 049
|
Food aid (planned)
|
225
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
225
|
Uncovered deficit
|
879
|
168
|
-
|
-
|
1 047
|
1/ Paddy has been converted to rice at a conversion rate of 67 percent
The total cereal import requirement in 2000/01 is estimated at an unprecedented high level of 2.3 million tonnes, more than double last year's level of 1.1 million tonnes. With commercial import capacity forecast at 1.049 million tonnes and WFP's food aid projected at 225 500 tonnes, the estimated (uncovered) food supply gap in 2000/01 is over 1 million tonnes, 4.4 times last year's gap. Clearly, this level of gap could be disastrous, causing millions of Afghans of all categories - sedentary, transhumant and nomad (Kuchie)4 - to face immense hardship and starvation.
The next rainy season starts in November. If rains fail again, the situation, already of catastrophic dimensions, will worsen further, and will likely make for a widespread famine unless adequate preventive steps are taken in time. Even if rains perform reasonably well in the coming season, the next wheat harvest will not be available until May/June 2001, i.e. there will be no respite for the people during 2000/01 (July-June).
The cereal surplus/deficit situation by region is given in
Table 4 below.
Region
|
Population
|
Cereal production 1/
|
Non-food use
|
Cereals available for consumption
|
Consumption requirements
|
Surplus/
deficit |
Production/ Consumption ratio (%)
|
Central
|
4 828 626
|
96 850
|
28 170
|
68 680
|
772 580
|
-703 900
|
13
|
North-East
|
3 394 151
|
375 810
|
138 240
|
237 570
|
543 064
|
-305 494
|
69
|
East
|
2 144 408
|
210 218
|
81 225
|
128 993
|
343 105
|
-214 112
|
61
|
South
|
2 229 317
|
90 690
|
26 875
|
63 815
|
356 691
|
-292 875
|
25
|
South-West
|
2 973 288
|
306 900
|
89 265
|
217 635
|
475 726
|
-258 091
|
65
|
West
|
2 030 321
|
201 780
|
60 215
|
141 565
|
324 851
|
-183 287
|
62
|
North
|
3 304 663
|
419 621
|
137 667
|
281 955
|
528 746
|
-246 792
|
79
|
East-Central
|
995 225
|
60 800
|
17 684
|
43 116
|
159 236
|
-116 120
|
38
|
Total/Average
|
21 900 000
|
1 762 670
|
579 342
|
1 183 328
|
3 504 000
|
-2 320 672
|
50
|
Livelihoods of most Afghan households are still predominantly based on agriculture. Rural communities make up approximately 85 percent of the population. Livelihoods in these communities are based on cereal farming supplemented by income from animal husbandry. In the food deficit areas of the Central Highlands and the Northeast, livestock play an increasingly important role in the livelihoods of the rural populations. The most vulnerable within these communities are members of households that have weak links to the land and livestock (eg landless, sharecroppers, wage labourers).
Urban populations are primarily dependent on cereals purchased from the market with income earned through casual labour, hence, vulnerable groups are generally those that have weak links to labour markets (eg. female headed households).
The livelihoods of the bulk of the Afghan population in both urban and rural areas are close to subsistence under normal conditions. 1998/1999 however was not a normal year. Due to generally dry conditions and a shortfall of over 1 100 000 tonnes of grain production countrywide, it should be considered the first of two `shocks' to the livelihoods of most of the urban and rural poor. The conditions of 1998/99 eroded traditional social security systems, forced the distress sale of assets and, critically, reduced the ability of communities and households to cope with this second shock - the 1999/2000 drought, the worst in living memory.
The Taliban authorities currently control an estimated 90 percent of Afghanistan; however, despite the extent of territory under their authority, the Taliban have not established a properly functioning and well-organized government structure. The existing ministries and government departments are weak as human, material and financial resources are devoted to the ongoing war with the Northern Alliance over the remaining non-Taliban held areas. Recent reports indicate that both sides are involved in preparations for renewed fighting despite the drought conditions impacting on most of the country. Given the ongoing civil war, it is not expected that the Taliban authorities will respond to the humanitarian crisis expected over the coming year as a result of the drought and the subsequent loss of crops and livestock.
At the beginning of the year the severity of the situation was first identified as the nomadic tribespeople (koochis) in the south began to drift into the urban centers claiming the loss of large numbers of head of livestock. The sole instance of a humanitarian intervention by the authorities, in response to the drought, involves the airlifting of approximately 8 000 people from the southern area of Registan to Kandahar City.
At the provincial and district levels `drought committees' have been set up. The most active, thus far, is the committee formed in Kandahar that is taking serious steps to regulate the use of water from the two rivers that provide water to most of the irrigated crops grown in the south. Response of local authorities at the provincial and district levels in most areas, however, is negligible or non-existent.
In normal years a traditional system of `redistribution' ensures that all members of Afghan society, even the most poverty-stricken, are assured of enough to survive. As Afghanistan moves into its second year of drought this trickle-down of resources is no longer sufficient. More and more of the most vulnerable households, especially female and children-headed households (children being the primary income earners) are forced to beg openly on the street. This is seen most graphically in Mazar-I-Sharif, the capital of the North, where the numbers of beggars and those selling off household assets, have increased dramatically over the past year.
Livestock play an important role in the livelihoods of more Afghan households. The `liquidation' of this asset as part of the coping strategies of many households is evident in the exceptionally low price of livestock in many regions in Afghanistan. In Kandahar and Herat livestock will only fetch 10 percent of what they did last year. This also reflects the forced sale of animals by families that cannot feed them - both because pastureland this year is nonproductive and purchase of fodder is beyond the means of most households.
Most households who are able to do so have sent able-bodied male family members to Pakistan to earn what they can in the casual labour markets. This year many men from koochi households are toiling in the wheat fields and orchards of Kandahar as they no longer have livestock to tend since virtually all of their flock have sickened and died due to the drought.
Out migration of entire families has not yet been widely reported. It is reasonable to expect, however, that under the devastating conditions faced by households in some of the hardest hit areas, that many may have little choice this year but to move as a matter of survival. WFP Afghanistan considers it has a significant role to play in preventing large-scale migration this year.
During 1999 WFP provided over 82 600 tonnes of food aid to over 1 250 000 beneficiaries in Afghanistan (over half of who were female). For the July 2000 to June 2001 crop year WFP plans to almost triple that amount and to provide 105 500 tonnes of food aid through a regular Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) with an additional 120 000 tonnes of wheat to benefit those most severely affected by the drought through an Emergency Operation (EMOP). The total 225 500 tonnes is expected to be delivered to beneficiaries through a variety of activities including Food For Work (FFW), Emergency Distribution and (most preferred) Food for Asset Creation (FOODAC). The emergency intervention is expected to assist 1.5 million people, many of whom live in remote and extremely difficult to access locations. Due to the scale and logistical challenges of the operation WFP Afghanistan plans to provide most-vulnerable households with a single commodity ration of wheat. This will ensure recipients can maintain an adequate energy intake using a commodity that is readily acceptable while permitting the operation to be carried out on an extensive scale. WFP Afghanistan will continue to distribute a range of commodities through its Institutional Feeding and Food for Education activities.
|
Activity |
July 2000 to June 2001 |
|
|
PRRO |
EMOP |
|
|
Emergency (including FOODAC) |
17 600 |
120 000 |
|
Bakery |
53 200 |
|
|
Institutional feeding |
1 840 |
|
|
Repatriation |
6 700 |
|
|
IDPs |
800 |
|
|
Food for education |
3 400 |
|
|
Food for training |
160 |
|
|
Food for work |
16 400 |
|
|
Food for seed |
5 400 |
|
|
105 500 |
120 000 |
|
|
TOTAL |
225 500 |
|
Afghanistan is currently in the grip of the worst drought in living memory. Unlike Pakistan, Afghanistan does not receive summer rains. It is thus probable that there will be no rain until late 2000 (if the rains do not fail again). The next chance for a normal crop from rain-fed areas will not be until 2001 because the vast majority of the cultivated land produces only one crop per year. Unlike India, Pakistan, Iran and Tajikistan (the other drought affected countries of the region) Afghanistan has no functioning government capable of responding on the scale required or capable of mobilizing the resources necessary to mitigate this disaster.
While initial assessments showed southwest Afghanistan to be the most affected area, this no longer appears to be the case and it is now confirmed that the whole country has been severely affected. The South is experiencing shortages of drinking water and the drying of wells while vast tracts of rainfed agriculture have been lost in the North. In addition, livestock markets have failed in the West while indigenous nomads who, for centuries have roamed the length and breadth of the country, are facing the end of a way-of-life with the loss of their herds and their lifetime's investment.
Instability and tightly sealed borders affect the north and are reflected by high cereal prices and exceptionally low purchasing power of the population. In Mazar a day's labour wages (normally expected to feed a family of four) buys the kilocalorie equivalent of wheat for one and a half people.
The immediate aim of an emergency intervention by WFP Afghanistan is to ensure food for the most severely affected Afghans over the coming year that would otherwise face complete failure of access within the next several months. In addition it will prevent families from resorting to migrating to already over-taxed urban areas or to neighbouring Pakistan and Iran and effectively abandoning their land.
The anticipated shortfall in production of 2.3 million tonnes of cereal coupled with restrictions by neighbouring drought-stricken countries on private imports of grain, supports the use of large volumes of food aid in preference to other forms of interventions.
The efforts of the WFP Afghanistan CO this year will focus primarily on household groups that, as a result of the drought, are unable to provide for even the basic food requirements of their families. The primary objective of WFP assistance will be to stabilize the population in situ through the provision of food to the most needy. In addition, WFP will work with partners to ensure that drinking water and health needs are met.
These 'most vulnerable' household groups will rely on livelihoods with one or more of the following characteristics:
WFP delivers food aid to land locked Afghanistan through both the southern and northern corridors. Use of the dual corridor helps to circumvent access difficulties provoked by frequent border closures or internal security threats. It is also a necessity to allow the northern provinces to be supplied during winter. Over 90 percent of food aid is scheduled to arrive through the southern route, more cost effective. Container cargo arrives through Karachi port and bulk cargo through Port Qasim. Commodities are then shipped overland by road to WFP transshipment bases in Pakistan at Quetta, 700 km and Peshawar 1400 km for storage, milling and re-forwarding to eastern and southern provinces in Afghanistan (Jalalabad, Kabul, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar). Through the northern corridor, cargo arrives from ports in the Baltic Sea (Riga, Tallin and Ventspils) and occasionally from the Black Sea. Commodities are then transported by rail over 4 500 km to WFP transhipment bases at Termez in Uzbekistan and Osh in Kyrgizstan for storage and re-forwarding to north-eastern Afghanistan ( Badakhshan) and to northern provinces in the winter months (Mazar), when the supply from the south via the Hazarajat is closed due to snow.
The unstable security situation and the difficult access to many areas, due to the poor infrastructure network, often results in the need for complex transshipments in country and even the use, in some cases, of animal transport. For example, remote and inaccessible areas in Badakhshan involves a combination of trucks, rafts and donkeys and takes several days. In some instances, food convoys have also to be arranged across the front line, involving difficult negotiations with the parties and a high level of risks for the staff involved. The particular climatic conditions are also resulting in a restricted access to some regions during winter, due to heavy snowfalls and frequent landslides.
· Enhanced rehabilitation of irrigation schemes (intake and canal repairing) in order to ensure adequate and equitable supply of irrigation water to all farmers. UNOPS is active in this field but a much larger effort is necessary.
· Rehabilitation of karez systems (cleaning of accumulated stones and sedimentation accumulated in the network) which in some areas are the only source of irrigation.
· Assistance to construction of wells and installation of tubewells for irrigation purposes, but with due care regarding sustainability of water table.
· Promotion of seed improvement for the rainfed areas as a continuation and strengthening of the FAO Integrated Crop and Food Production Program.
· Implementation of appropriate natural resource use and management policies for improved rangeland utilization for sustainable animal productivity and output.
|
This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO and WFP Secretariats with information from official and unofficial sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for further information if required. |
|
|
Abdur Rashid |
Ms. J. Cheng-Hopkins |
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1 The contents of this section are based on a variety of sources including last year's FAO/WFP Crop and food Supply Assessment Mission Report, Afghanistan 2000 Appeal, WFP: Protracted Relief and Recovery Assistance for Afghanistan, 1 January 2000-31 December 2001, and discussions with concerned officials in the UN System in Afghanistan and others.
2 Obtained by applying an annual population growth rate of 3.4 percent to last year's population of 21.2 million.
3 Wheat provides the bulk of calorie intake in Afghanistan. Often bread and yoghurt alone constitute a full meal in rural areas.
4 Sedentary population is dependent on both rainfed and irrigated agriculture - they usually have some head of cattle and other livestock; transhumant population depends on rainfed agriculture and livestock; and the Kuchies are entirely dependent on livestock. See section 3.6 for the collapse of livestock related livelihood this year.