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4. PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

4.1 Overall Targets for 1965–70

The development plan formulated by the Fisheries Department of Kenya for the period 1965 to 1970 aims at achieving a three-fold increase in production from 20,000 to 60,000 tons of fish per annum (which would present an estimated increase in gross value from £2.8 million to £8 million). Of the increase of 40,000 tons, it is hoped to achieve 25,000 tons from freshwater fisheries, and 15,000 tons from sea fisheries, expansion.

4.2 Detailed Estimates by Fishing Area, 1965–70

Based largely on comparisons of productivity with similar water bodies in the region and on the experience of neighbouring countries in implementing fisheries development plans in recent years, the Fisheries Department established the following production targets for the year 1970:

TABLE II - Projected Production of Fish in Fishing Areas of Kenya - 1970

Fishing AreaProduction at Present Rate
(1965)
Proposed increase
1965–19702
Projected total production
1970
 tons
Lake Baringo     600     900  1,500
Lake Jipe     150     100     250
Lake Naivasha     550  1,000  1,550
Lake Rudolf     85012,00012,850
Lake Victoria12,000  8,00020,000
Tana/Athi Rivers     500  -     500
Fish ponds and dams     120  1,000  1,120
Other lakes/rivers     700  2,000  2,700
Coastal fisheries  5,00015,00020,000
 20,47040,00060,470
(rounded off to 60,000)        

2 Note: In addition, it is hoped to launch in this period commercial tuna/sail fish operations from Mombasa, the initial catch potential of which is estimated at 8,000 tons per annum.

The attainment of the targets depends, among other things, on whether market outlets can be expanded in step with the increase in fishing effort, and on whether sufficient staff can be recruited without delay, to supervise development and stimulate the necessary increase in effort.

4.3 Fishing Potential for Period Beyond 1970

For the period beyond 1970, further expansion may be possible provided the Fisheries Department can be brought to full strength and equipped to deal with the many development and research problems connected with such development. Reliable forecasts of production potential are not possible since thorough biological surveys and fish population studies have not been carried out in most of the fishing areas. The minimum and maximum projections in the table below represent rough estimates of fishing potential based on experience in the exploitation of aimilar water bodies in other countries of East Africa.

TABLE III - Estimated Production Potential of Fishing Areas of Kenya

Fishing AreaEstimated Additional Field Potential Beyond
1965–1970 Period
Projected Total Production to be Realized Some Time
After 1970
 Min.Max.Min.Max.
 tons
Lake Baringo  1,000     2,000     2,500     3,500
Lake Jipe     125       125        375       375
Lake Naivasha  1,500    2,500     3,000    4,000
Lake Rudolf37,000147,000   50,000160,000
Lake Victoria  8,000  20,000   28,000  40,000
Tana/Athi Rivers  2,000    5,000     2,500    5,500
Dams  3,000         10,000 plus     3,500         10,500 plus
Ponds  1,000          1,000 plus     1,500          1,500 plus
Other lakes/rivers  4,000          4,000 plus     6,500          6,500 plus
Soda lakes  ?     ??   ?
Coastal fisheries (Tuna/Sailfish)  8,000     ?}

28000       28000 plus
Coastal fisheries (inshore)  ?     ?
 65,625191,625125,875259,875



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