Summary

A number of important factors and developments will shape the forest sector in the coming years. In broad terms, forestry like all other sectors responds to macro - level factors.

These factors include: Population growth and changes in demographic attributes (rural/urban balance, agricultural dependency, income, changes in aspirations and expectations such as greater interest in environmental issues); Economic growth (and related changes in personal wealth, prosperity and consumption patterns); Land-use change (particularly deforestation); Changes in social dimensions (including changes associated with cultural, ethnic, gender equity issues, changes in socio-political structures, and issues associated with improved education, welfare, and other social services); Evolution of political orientations and policies (within and outside the sector); and Institutional/policy adaptations (such as economic liberalisation and deregulation, decentralisation, adherence to trading blocks, becoming parties to international agreements and the associated obligations).

Somewhat distinct from these more "human" macro-dimensions are environmental factors. Increasing concerns over pollution from industrial discharges, climate change, soil and water degradation, deforestation and forest degradation, and visual/aesthetic pollution are of marked significance to the forestry sector.

More direct in their influence on forestry are developments in linked sectors. Most important are developments in the agriculture sector, including in population settlement that may be associated with it. Critical to the future of forests is the growth rate of farm productivity.

The energy sector is also closely linked to forestry. Most directly, woodfuel and farm residues are important elements in the national energy budget. The rate at which they are displaced by "modern" conventional fuels or at which they enter the commercial mainstream themselves will affect the forestry sector.

Transport infrastructure, particularly roads, can also have major impacts on forestry. By improving access to forests, roads offer greater ease of settlement, encroachment and deforestation. On the positive side, roads open up opportunities for viable commercialisation of forest resources.

An underlying factor is technological change. Apart from affecting farm productivity, it can directly increase efficiency in forestry and forest industries. Improving conversion factors in sawmills also contributed significantly.

The major influential driving forces

Population and rural/urban dynamics

Continued population growth, particularly rural populations, which have high dependency on agriculture, are likely to result in continuing conversion of forestland to agricultural and other uses. In turn this will likely lead to a future in which the ability of the forests to provide the expected products and services is reduced. However, trees growing outside the forest have permitted continuing availability of wood, mostly for subsistence needs.

The rural-urban balance is shifting and the absolute number of rural people will fall. UN projections show that the rural population will decrease by 11% between 2000-2020 while the urban population will increase by 110%.

Economic growth and forestry consumption;

Without sufficient increases in income, large segments of the population will continue to rely on fuelwood and charcoal for energy. Also it is possible to have substantial industry relying on forestry products. The key is that it is possible to plan the use of the resources.

Policy and institutional changes

The implementation of the federal system of the Government, particularly the devolution of forest management powers to the State governments and the sharing of revenue with them. As past experience shows the shared management of the forests by local and national administrative body’s lead to depletion and mismanagement of the forests and the forest area.