THE CHANGE DRIVERS

Most long terms forecasts like the FOSA, utilise past consumption data to determine the secular trends in consumption through the use of appropriate biometric methods to determine future trends "cteris paribus" (all thing being equal). The "cteris paribus" clause hardly holds even during peace time let alone in projecting demand for products in war-torn Sierra Leone.

While the normal change drivers or demand shifters apply in the Sierra Leone situation, the severity of the impacts of these factors may have been exacerbated by a decade of civil conflict.

The country’s population estimated at 4.3 million (1990) is believed to have increased at about 2.5% per annum (projected to 8.9 million in 2020) but a near-complete collapse of local government structures and the destabilization of about 60% of the population makes returnee population more crucial in the forecasting and supply exercise. Rural-urban migration and the seeking of refuge in neighbouring countries, poses entirely new questions i.e. How many refugees or IDPs will chose to make their host towns or countries a permanent abode?

Specifically, the following factors are most likely to affect the forecast and the balancing of the demand and supply equation:

Housing and other needs of IDPs and refugees (including 149 office and residential complexes for returnee Paramount Chiefs).

Population dynamics over the past decades.

Rural –urban migration.

Income distribution and changes in per capita income.

Social indicators as they interpret the use of national resources.

The role of tradition in conservation.

Cross border trade and migration within the Mano River Union.

Economic performance.

Institutional strengthening.

Impact of industrial development.

Annex 2.1 which presents the IDPs by present location and Chiefdom of origin clearly highlights the rehabilitation needs of the returnees in terms of housing, timber, fence sticks, firewood etc but it also highlights the need for the reforestation of areas in close proximity to the current camps which are being heavily depleted. In addition, the normal annual increases in housing units due to normal population increases should be accounted for, in terms of demand for construction material. Under the DFID good governance programme 149 office/ residential complexes will be built for returnee Paramount Chiefs. A reforestation programme involving all the 149 chiefdoms is being planned.

Important aspects of the country’s population worthy of note are:

% youth population looking for jobs now.

Population of children born in 2000 who will be available for jobs and require housing by 2020.

% aging and aged.

% immigration and migration.

number of ex-combatants to be gainfully employed.

This factor, if accurately determined could guide re-afforestation programmes to cater for highly populated areas; adjust for the expansion of settlements in urban and peri-urban areas; plantation establishment drives etc.

The severity of the migration provides an indicator for rural development planning to contain the situation to some extent (see annex 2.3).

Where urban population growth outweighs the expansion or increase in facilities to cope with the excess population, health-related and other social problems could surface.

As another measure of poverty, changes in per capita income which has been decreasing over the past 2 decades will affect the degree of utilization of natural resources. Examples of the negative impacts of the deterioration of per capita income and skewed income distribution include:

More people switching over to the use of firewood due to problems of affordability of modern stoves and also the increases in prices of petroleum products (see annex 2.4).

High prices of inorganic (chemical) fertilizers could discourage the application of the correct doses (or outright rejection) of fertilizers. This situation could encourage the cultivation of larger acreage of the "upland" to account for the differential in rice "yield" due to partial or non- application of fertilizers.

Pressure on forests for wood energy will be exacerbated by increases in the pump price of kerosene which is the domestic fuel used by the majority of the population.

Factors such as the proportion of rural to urban based population; population distribution by standard age classes; urbanization and immigration trends; life expectancy; employment trends; proportion of literate population and literacy trends etc. tend to explain the heavy reliance on forests by particularly the rural poor.

Food avoidances and the avoidance of certain firewood species on the basis of superstition, culture etc could influence the choice of species in woodlot establishment (see annex 2.5).

The maintenance of sacred groves that promote conservation could have a negative impact if such groves are targeted for large scale reforestation programmes.

Special diets may encourage over-consumption of fire wood e.g. the cooking of dried broad beans utilises large quantities of firewood.

Apart from exports from main national ports, illegal cross border trade in forest products could be substantial especially by boat on the Freetown – Conakry and Freetown – Monrovia routes.

Since the land routes are only continually open and mostly insecure, this illegal trade in particularly timber and charcoal can not be ignored. Hence the need to make some estimated provision for it. Cross border migration of large mammals particularly of elephants could also affect the forecasts.

The balance of trade deficit is a realistic measure of the performance of the economy as a positive balance could ensure the provision of support to sectors such as forestry. For instance the visible trade balance for the period 1993/94 was USD 34 billion. Post war situation could be worst but recovery is anticipated with the diamond origin certification mechanism now put in place. Rutile accounted for 53% of the countries export earnings in 1993/94 followed by diamonds (32%); bauxite (7%); illmenite (5%) etc. With the cessation of hostilities in the main cocoa and coffee growing areas, more export earnings will be realised for the development of the natural resources. Air and sea vessels will increase in numbers thereby increasing revenue generation through landing fees, portage etc.

The on-going but gradual appreciation of the "Leone" against the dollar could improve the performance of the economy.

Aspects of the economy that could negatively impact on the use of natural resources are that of Economic and Trade liberalization. These factors will affect the following areas in particular:

the unregulated importation of powersaws

illegal exportation of sawn timber

unregulated registration of timber stores

duty waiver on sawmilling equipment

company registration laws not fool-proof

Currently, there is a ban on log export on the grounds of local employment creation in remote areas by sawmillers.

Recent changes in NGO/Government policy geared towards enhancing the efficiency of those institutions could result in positive impacts on natural resource management in the right geographical regions.

Avoiding duplication of efforts and ensuring coordination of efforts by all stakeholder ministries could be an added advantage.

Village Forestry Associations, fully supported by the Forestry Act 1988, should be encouraged under the broad community forestry development agenda which the sector is currently rigorously pursuing. Only indirect control of communal lands, outside forest estates, could increase the area of managed forest estates since the acquisition of new lands is becoming increasingly difficult.

The resuscitation of the District councils will discourage the present centralised financial management system, allowing the Districts and chiefdoms to participate in natural resources management more effectively. The reforestation programme sponsored by DFID could be commendable if effectively implemented.

The Native Administration forests which support waned over the last decade will once more be supported by local chiefdom authorities.

The present structure of the National Association of Farmers of Sierra Leone makes it a strong vehicle for the dissemination of ideas on tree planting and conservation messages to the grassroots level. Education of its membership through appropriate means for collaboration with this body could ensure:

the protection of some valuable timber species during the post war rehabilitation of cocoa, coffee and oil palm plantations

Protection of timber trees in cash crop establishment and maintenance

Catchment protection during slash and burn farming practices

Swamp development to reduce the pressure for farm land on the "uplands".

Agroforestry practices to be adopted in order to make the farmer more sedentary.

The Institute of Agricultural Research and the Rice Research Station, Rokupr both have packages worthy of field trials nationwide. Making the small farmer sedentary could reduce the impact of the shifting cultivation practices on the vulnerable "uplands".

Once the demand for products and services is precisely determined, there will be need to balance the demand and supply through the assessment of what is available in terms of volume of timber etc. and how much needs to be planted.

In order to avoid clash of interests or even the possible destruction of young trees due to the need for road construction, mining and other activities, road construction and mining plans and plans for other allied institutions will be used to guide the re-afforestation programmes (see map 2.1 and 2.2).

Potential tourist attractions will continue to be conserved and the means of enhancing tourist turnover accelerated (see appendix 2.6). City and town planning departments will be encouraged to present expansion proposals for those settlements. Such proposals could also guide the forecast of timber and other construction – related needs. The quantum of forest vegetation in terms of area cleared and the volume of timber to be destroyed in road construction need to be estimated for planning purposes.

The availability of labour for agriculture (including forestry) will be investigated despite the usual tendency of a mass exodus of labour to the minefields.

The possibility of establishing of a sustainable and reputable forest industry is being pursued in light of the fact that no logging and sawmilling company is operating in the country at the moment.

The floating of indigenous logging and sawmilling companies will be encouraged to maximise return to local communities as financial incentives for forest reservation and in the interest of sustainability. Community heads will be encouraged to buy shares in these companies as a guarantee of their full support.

The impact of agricultural expansion and particularly the agricultural practices presently in place; holds potentials for improvement particularly the inculcation of more environmentally- friendly farming methods such as agroforestry practices and the use of other ecologies.

The protection of valuable timber species during cash crop rehabilitation will be emphasised. Out of a total area of 5,362,000 ha of arable land the uplands constitute 78.4 %; inland valley swamps (12.9%); mangrove swamps (3.7%); Bolilands (2.6%) and Riverine Grass lands (2.4%). Thus the cultivation of inland valley swamps; bolis and riverine grassland could reduce farming pressure on the upland.

Timber and bush pole requirement for the construction of 300,000 housing units nationwide will be determined and the supply mechanism instituted in collaboration with the Housing Division of the Ministry of Lands, Housing, Country Planning and the Environment. Construction wood needs for the 149 housing units for the 149 Paramount Chiefs will be calculated.

Change drivers will definitely have an impact on deforestation, conservation and rehabilitation programmes as exemplified by 46 respondents to questionnaires administered. (see annex 2.7)

While 75% of respondents agreed that population growth will fuel deforestation, about 45% feel that rural-urban migration will have same impact. Decrease in per capita income was blamed by 45% while only 33% blamed poor income distribution for fuelling deforestation.

Increases in poverty levels, wood energy prices and the price of rice were blamed for increased deforestation by 69%, 54% and 36% respectively, while support for resettlement and the return of returnees is blamed for deforestation by 31% and 37% respectively. Other possible future civil conflicts and the proliferation of NGOs were only blamed by 23% and 33% of respondents respectively.

On the impact of local government capacity on enhancing forest resource management, 47% was attributed to the reconstitution of District Councils; 50% to decentralization and 38% to the return of Paramount Chiefs to their respective chiefdoms. Proper coordination of NGO activities; the constitution of a national seed board and the establishment of a national forest tree seed programme will enhance management by 38%; 28%; and 45% respectively.

Agricultural expansion is one of the biggest culprits of deforestation. This was exemplified by 28% of the respondents blaming it on tractorization; 36% on food production campaigns; 33% on farmer empowerment and 33% on the introduction of the Unified Agricultural Extension System. Unsubsidised fertilizer prices may create problem of affordability by most resource – poor farmers. Hence 29% of respondents expected that policy measure to fuel deforestation as larger parcels of land could be cultivated to make good the deficit in yield, due to the non-application of yield- increasing fertilizers. The cultivation of alternative ecologies such as inland valley swamps and mangrove swamps which cultivation could decelerate deforestation of dry land forests by 28% and 21% respectively.

Alternative energy sources could reduce the spate of deforestation mostly for obtaining biomass energy. Understandably, 50% of respondents supported the idea while 33% felt that increased demand for raw materials could fuel forestry development while another 50% felt that the additional shift of labour to industries could fuel development of the forestry sector.

The role of unemployment in fuelling deforestation was exemplified by the fact that 50% of respondents felt that industries to be developed in the next 2 decades can only absorb modestly, the additional labour produced by normal population increases. Only 38% felt that NGOs could adequately absorb some of the excess labour. However 50% felt that the positive impact of tourism on the economy in the next 2 decades will be substantial.

Alternative energy sources are often expected to reduce pressure on forests for biomass energy but only 28% blamed fuel price increases for deforestation while 40% blamed increases in the cost of cooking appliances. However 41% felt that the provision of cheap hydro electric power, following the completion of the Bumbuna project, will positively influence the use of electric cookers thereby reducing the dependence on biomass slightly. Forty percent expected the adoption of wood burning stoves to be high. However, 40% of respondents felt that the chances of harnessing other HEP sources are very low meaning that this alternative may not substantially contribute to curbing deforestation effectively.

As for the negative impact of road construction on forests, only 28% felt that it will be high in the next 2 decades, while 40% felt that development in communication sector will enhance forestry development.

Trade Liberalization affects forest harvesting and sale of products. Therefore 85%, 66% and 47% felt that the uncontrolled importation of powersaws; illegal exportation of forest products and the uncontrolled opening of timber stores fuel deforestation respectively.

In addition, poor interdepartmental collaboration and the illegal importation of powersaws were blamed by only 36% and 33% respectively.

Policy changes in the sector could enhance forestry development. While 78% felt support for community forestry could enhance forestry development, only 52% and 57% felt that the national tree planting drive and enhanced public awareness could do the same.

Fifty eight percent felt that technical training for NGOs in environmental conservation will enhance forestry development but surprisingly only 28% felt that education of powersaw operators, pit sawyers and charcoal burners will enhance forestry development. Contracting out seedling production and plantation establishment to local communities was supported by 50% of respondents, while 50% felt increased political will could enhance forestry development and 31% supported the sale of forest tree seedlings which are currently distributed free.

Technological changes in forestry and allied fields could enhance forestry development provided they increase wood recovery, enhance seedling production and build the capacities of stakeholder organizations.

While 40% of respondents felt that modernised sawmills would enhance forestry development, only 33% saw the advantage of "tubed" seedlings over naked ones in enhancing nursery productivity. In fact 38% actually advocated the direct broadcast of seeds on taungya farms. This method when successful, could reduce labour cost on land clearing and tree planting.

Support to and sensitisation of stakeholders (farmers/youths etc.) was advocated by 45% of respondents while the provision of tree felling and extraction equipment to facilitate firewood sales was not favourably supported by 60%. However the introduction of energy-efficiency charcoal kilns received 42% support.

Investment in the forestry sector did not receive a high rating. Respondents felt that the chances of investment are likely to be medium. Forty percent considered high investment in forest exploitation; 45% expect medium to average investment potential in re-afforestation activities; 31% expected medium to average investment in national parks and wildlife management and 35% expected average investment in eco-tourism.

Also, 31% expected moderate investment in rubber exploitation; 26% in rubber plantation establishment and 33% in the establishment of zoos.

Potentials for donor intervention over the next 20 years was rated as 38% by the respondents. Forty percent of respondents felt that the negative impact of land tenure is high while the impact of livestock restocking is rated as moderate.

The limited adoption of agroforestry methods is expected to have negative impact. Increased globalisation trends could have a negative impact on forestry development due to increase in deforestation pressure.