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Appendix 4

CASH FLOW PROJECTIONS
FOR THE UNIT (ZIBA) OPERATION

Table 1: MANURING SYSTEM (K)

Entries/YearYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
CASH INFLOW     
Loan1 000    
Sales of fish1-750750750750
Total cash inflow1 000750750750750
CASH OUT FLOW     
Investment cost:     
Pond construction2
600    
Purchase of fry3
9090909090
Operating cost:     
Labour4
200300300300300
Lime
2020202020
Manure5
110110110110110
Miscellaneous and repairs5050505050
Total cash outflow1 070570570570570
Cash Balance(70)180180180180
Cumulative Cash Balance(before debt service)(70)110290470650

Notes:

1 There are two harvests each year (production cycle = 6 months), starting with the secondyear to allow for extra lead time for pond construction and production start-up.A net 2 t ha yield (after home consumption) is assumed and the fish is sold at the farm-gateprice of K 7.5/kg

2 Earthern ponds to be dug entirely by manual labour using shovels, picks and hoes which costK 40–50/piece; the wage rate is K 150/month and the construction of a 500 m2 pond requiresthe unearthing of 250 m3

3 The stocking rate is 3/m2. Fingerlings are priced at K 60/1 000 pieces

4 Part-time work for the operator and his family. Starting with the second year additionallabour is hired at harvest time

5 Purchased from neighbouring poultry or pig-rearing operations

Table 2: FISH PRODUCTION COMBINED WITH DUCK HUSBANDRY

Entries/YearYear 1Year 2(K) Year 3Year 4Year 5
CASH INFLOW     
Loan2 000    
Sale of fish1-1 5001 5001 5001 500
Sale of ducks21 5753 1503 1503 1503 150
Total cash inflow3 5754 6504 6504 6504 650
CASH OUTFLOW     
Investment cost:     
Pond construction
600    
Shed for the ducks3
50    
Purchase of fry
9090909090
Purchase of ducking4
88176176176176
Operating cost:     
Labour5
250300300300300
Lime
2020202020
Supplemental feed6
7301 4601 4601 4601 460
Miscellaneous and repairs7
5050100100100
Total cash outflow
1 8782 0962 1462 1462 146
Cash Balance
1 6972 5542 5042 5042 504
Cumulative Cash Balance (before debt service)
1 6974 2516 7559 25911 763

Notes:

1 Net yield: 4 t/ha

2 Selling price K 17.5/kg. The ducks are sold every 10–13 weeks (twice per cycle) when theiraverage (dressed) weight is 1.8 kg

3 Built beside the pond by the fish-farmer's family with bamboo or other locally available materials

4 At the rate of 1 duck/20 m2 priced at K 1.75/duckling

5 Some additional labour is required in the first year to look after the ducks and henceforth thesame amount as in the manuring system of Table 1

6 50% of the feed requirement for the ducks (i.e., K 4/day) is bought outside

7 Repairs of the duck shed are added after the second year

Table 3: FISH PRODUCTION COMBINED WITH PIGSTY

Entries/YearYear 1Year 2(K)
Year 3
Year 4Year 5
CASH INFLOW     
Loan3 000    
Sale of fish1 1 8751 8751 8751 875
Sale of pigs22 8005 6005 6005 6005 600
Total cash inflow5 8007 4757 4757 4757 475
CASH OUTFLOW     
Investment cost:     
Pond construction
600    
Shed for the pigs3
100    
Purchase of fry
9090909090
Purchase of weaners4
7001 4001 4001 4001 400
Operating cost:     
Labour
250300300300300
Lime
2020202020
Supplemental feed5
1 0302 0602 0602 0602 060
Miscellaneous repairs
5050100100100
Total cash outflow2 8403 9203 9703 9703 970
Cash Balance2 9603 5553 5053 5053 505
Cumulated Cash Balance     
(before debt service)2 9606 51510 02013 52517 030

Notes:

1 Net yield: 5 t/ha

2 Selling price: K 10/kg/pig sold at 70 kg (× 4) once per 6-month cycle

3 Built more expensively, on stilts, over the pond

4 Purchase price: K 7/kg for each 25 kg weaner

5 60% of feed requirement bought outside the farm at a cost of K 5.5/day

Table 4: DEBT SERVICING: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (FISH-CUM-DUCK = TABLE 2)

Case I - NO PERIOD OF GRACE - FIRST REPAYMENT AFTER 6 MONTHS - 2 ANNUAL INSTALMENTS - INTEREST RATE = 10%

 Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Cash Balance
(before debt service)
     
Debt Service1 6972 5542 5042 5042 504
Principal9521 048   
Interest200104   
Cash Balance (after debt service)5451 4022 5042 5042 504
Cumulated Cash Balance5451 9474 4516 9559 459

Case II - PERIOD OF GRACE = 12 MONTHS - FIRST REPAYMENT AFTER 18 MONTHS - 2 INSTALMENTS - RATE = 16%

 Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Cash Balance
(before debt service)
     
Debt Service1 6972 5542 5042 5042 504
Principal 9261 074  
Interest 320172  
Cash Balance (after debt service)1 6971 3081 2582 5042 504
Cumulated Cash Balance1 6973 0054 2636 7679 271

Case III - PERIOD OF GRACE = 12 MONTHS - FIRST REPAYMENT AFTER 18 MONTHS - 3 INSTALMENTS - RATE = 20%

 Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Cash Balance
(before debt service)
     
Debt Service1 6972 5542 5042 5042 504
Principal 549659792 
Interest 400290157 
Cash Balance (after debt service)1 6971 6051 5551 5552 504
Cumulated Cash Balance1 6973 3024 8576 4128 916

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