Part II Regional Survey Report (Contd.)

BALANCE SHEETS

Three parts regarding feed availability and utilization were included in the APO questionnaire to which all twelve countries provided some information. These are total nutrient availability, by source; total nutrient requirements, by species; and summary of feed balance.

The nutrient requirements section was divided into two parts, metabolizable energy (ME) and crude protein (CP). Responses about ME availability of locally-produced feedstuffs by countries are given in Appendix 21, and for CP in Appendix 22. Percentage changes between 1970 and 1984 are only available for individual countries reporting data for the categories and not by each energy source since some countries report data for 1984, but not 1970. Only 8 countries out of the 12 respondents provided information on metabolizable energy availabilities and requirements for 1970, and only 7 provided data on crude protein for that year. Nine, or 75 percent, reported ME and CP availabilities and requirements for 1984. That considerable differences were apparent in unit parameters used in the respondent countries, thus making comparisons among countries difficult.

Lack of consistency among countries in reporting results, in coefficients utilized and in results presentation led to a region-wide evaluation of requirements using consistent input parameters. There are difficulties in doing this due to differences among countries in size of livestock, age composition, etc. However, these differences are probably minimal when compared with reporting errors in the inventory. Thus, standardized nutrient requirements have been developed and applied to all countries on the basis of typical animal production levels (growth rates and milk production) as well as average live weight.

The first step, following the procedure initially developed by Abou-Raya (1978) is to transform the ruminant animal population to standardized animal units. A discussion on livestock units, their calculation and use is given in Simpson (1988). The ones adopted, termed “modified” are based on the work of McDowell (1983). Each of the grazing animal inventories is then multiplied by these modified tropical livestock unit (MTLU) conversion factors to obtain the total number of MTLUs per country (Table 9). A discussion on average annual requirements is provided in Note 2 of the Technical Appendix.

Results of placing all grazing animal numbers on a modified tropical livestock unit MTLU basis, presented in Table 10 for all countries surveyed, indicate only a 9.7 percent total increase from 1970–84. This is an annual increase of 0.7 percent (Table 9), much lower than would be hypothesized given an annual human population growth rate of about 2.2 percent in the region from 1970–1984 (Table 2). However, the explanation lies in very low growth in draft animal inventories, which account for the majority of the MTLU's in both 1970 and 1984.

India had the largest proportion of the region's MTLUs in both 1970 and 1984, 78.8 and 77.0 percent respectively. Pakistan had the next largest proportion, 9.9 and 12.4 percent for the two periods. The greatest annual positive rate of change between 1970 and 1984, 6.6 percent, took place in Fiji followed by 5.2 percent in the Republic of Korea. The Philippines, Nepal and Singapore and the Republic of China all had declines in MTLUs.

Standardized ME and CP requirements for-swine and poultry were estimated as a next step in balance sheet preparations, and are presented in Note 2 of the Technical Analysis along with those for ruminants (which have been based on MTLUs). Inventories in 1970 (or the closest year in a few cases) and 1984 have been multiplied by requirements per head of ME and CP to arrive at total requirements for each country (Appendixes 23–34). ME is in millions of megacalories while CP is in millions mt. A summary of the calculations (Tables 11 and 12) shows that total ME requirements were 2.79 × 10¹⁵ million Mcal in 1970 and 3.17 × 10¹⁵ Mcal in 1984. This is a 14-percent increase. In contrast, availabilities (as reported) were 0.83 × 10¹⁵ Mcal in 1970 and 1.13 × 10¹⁵ Mcal in 1984, an increase of nearly two and one-half times.

Requirements are substantially above apparent domestically-produced availabilities. This seems reasonable considering that many of the countries in the region do import significant quantities of feedstuffs. Furthermore, a review of feedstuffs availability (Appendix Tables 21 and 22) indicates that there is significant under reporting due to paucity of data. Also, even the most casual observation of animal condition indicates serious nutritional deficiencies in many countries. Another reason is underestimation by-product feed use, especially rice straw. Finally, there is extensive feeding of kitchen waste, particularly to swine and poultry, not reported in the estimated availabilities. In other words, feedstuffs availabilities are definitely much greater than reported.

Table 9. Grazing Inventory, APO Survey Countries ^a

Note: ^a Based on Modified Tropical Livestock Units (MTLU) onEnergy Requirements (See Section on Balance Sheets.)

^b Less than 1,000 MTLU.

Fiji is 1968 while Japan and Singapore are 1971 figures.

Table 10. Change in Tropical Livestock Units, 12 APO Survey Countries, 1984 1970–84

Note: ^a Less than 1,000 MTLU.

Table 11. Estimated Metabolizable Energy Balance Sheet, 12 APO Survey Countrie

(Unit: Million mcal.)

Note: ^a As reported.

Table 12. Calculated Crude Protein Balance Sheet, 12 APO Survey Countries

(Unit: Million mt)

Note: ^a As reported.

Projections of ME requirements (Table 13), rest on the demand scenarios developed earlier. For example, the demand for sheep and goat meat is expected to increase between 34 and 41 percent. There were 199 million head of these animals in 1984. If there were no technological change, and no other output coefficient variation took place, inventory would have to increase to between 266 and 279 million head. If the weighted annual ME requirement is 2.0 MT per head, then the region's total ME requirement for sheep and goats would be 532 × 10⁹ Mcal under the small growth assumption and 560 × 10⁹ Mcal under the moderate growth assumption.

Application of the previous steps to the other species results in estimated requirements in the year 2000 of 4.64 × 10¹⁵ Mcal under the small growth analysis, and 5.34 × 10¹⁵ under the moderate growth simulation. In contrast, the total for 1984 is estimated at 3.14 × 10¹⁵ Mcal. Thus, ME requirements under the small growth scenarios in the year 2000 would be 48 percent greater than in 1984, and 70 percent more under the moderate growth scenario.

The ME requirement scenarios for the year 2000 are a type of simulation exercise and not forecasts since many variables will change. For example, they do not allow for changes in herd composition, nutrient requirements or changes in import vs. domestic production of livestock products. Rather, the interpretation simply is: if the demand for meat from these commodities were to grow at the percentages specified, and all additional consumption took place by domestically produced animals, the ME requirements in the 12 countries would increase between 48 and 70 percent between the years 1984 and 2000.

The continual increase in feed requirements will be met through a variety of means. Much of the human population growth will take place among low income rural people (and in many cases, the urban poor) who traditionally have kept livestock and poultry. Thus, a portion of additional requirements will be met by expanded use of by-products and feeding kitchen waste. However, the principal growth is expected to take place in formula feeds to be used by the dairy livestock and poultry subsectors.

PROSPECTS AND PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPING FEED RESOURCES

Human population growth and expanded per capita incomes in most countries point to animal feed requirements increasing substantially in most of the 12 countries during the foreseeable future. A major question then is the extent to which feedstuffs production can be expanded in terms of quality as well as quantity. A review of a few survey countries provides insights into some of the prospects and problems.

Table 13. Projections of ME Requirements, 1984–2000, APO Survey Countries

Note:     ^a From Table 3.M
^b From Table 4.
^c Total is slightly different than in Table 11 due to aggregation for goats and sheep, and cattle and swamp buffalo in Table 13.

India's government has made considerable effort to improve animal feedstuffs supply and use. However, many problems remain. There has been no special effort to create an assured market for cultivated fodders in place of food or cash crops and thus are basically only grown near urban areas where there is demand by the dairy industry. Livestock development projects such as distribution of crossbred cows have been less than successful due to lack of feedstuffs or improper feeding. Several positive steps could be taken in addition to correcting the ones just mentioned. Unproductive livestock can be culled to stretch feed resources. Rations and feeding methods can be improved. Tree crops and associated systems, like alley farming, can be introduced along with high-yield and early maturing forage varieties. Better methods of storing feedstuffs can be developed and tested using a farming systems research and extension approach.

Sri Lanka's gap between feed requirements and availability is considerable and may continue to grow although measures are being taken to narrow it. Attention is being focused on the cultivation of improved forages, especially in wet zones to meet that need. There is a great lack of proper utilization of residues for concentrate feeds, especially from by-products and non-conventional feed resources. Much more attention needs to be given the local laws and enforcement in the production, marketing and recommended use of formula feeds. Promotion of integrated crop livestock systems is a planning approach which further and in-depth studies.

Nepal has a much different problem than Sri Lanka by being heavily oriented toward grazing. Thus, it appears that supplementary sources of feedstuffs require special attention. Some considerations are introduction, development and dissemination of cultivars, rotational fodder type trees and improved use of crop residues. Pakistan has some of the same problems but they find great scope to increase fodder production, especially summer ones. Fruit and vegetable wastes are other potential feed sources as are development of high yielding coarse grains. Rangeland needs to be improved, ever as the cornerstone for developing a sound livestock industry seems to be processed feed.

Singapore is heavily reliant on imports of feedstuffs and animal products. In an effort to reduce this dependence, programmes are being implemented to develop sophisticated farming expertise and technology which can be exported to other countries within the region. It is expected that about 2,000 ha of agricultural land will be turned into agrotechnology parks in the next decade. In addition, several steps have already been taken such as complete phasing out of pork production and replacement with a less polluting type of farming such as aquaculture, and development of a complete feed industry development plan. Indonesia has taken specific measures to promote animal feed production such as a green forage seeding programme, introduction of crop residue processing methods, and reorganization of government departments. In addition, attention is being given to improving marketing conditions.

Vast natural resources in the Philippines clearly point to substantial opportunities for feed and livestock development. However, while a multitude of research findings have been generated which, according to local experts are substantiable for the next decade, there is little impact at the farm level. It is concluded that a realignment of the extension service is needed to fill the gap. Tied to this are stable policies which will lead to greater investment in agriculture.

Fiji has bright prospects for expanding animal feed and livestock production. One virtually untapped area is sugarcane. Citrus and cocoa by-products are other possibilities. The major constraint is lack of large areas of suitable land for large-scale production of grains. A second constraint is lack of technology to utilize agro-industrial by-products.

The wide availability of low protein, high fiber feedstuffs tends to favor expansion of ruminants in P. Malaysia. Private beef feedlots have evolved, mainly utilizing by-products and NCFRs such as pineapple bran and palm kernel cake. Much effort is being given to expanding sheep production in plantations. While their livestock industry is advancing in a rational and balanced manner, greater attention needs to be given to ensuring formula feed quality and import substitution for imported feedstuffs.

Planning and implementation of whole development packages has been an important factor in the very rapid improvement in the Rep. of China's livestock industry. For example, hog numbers grew at the rate of 5.3 percent annually from 1960 – 1984 due to close cooperation between government and producers in the expansion of large-scale hog raising. They targeted introduction of crossbreeding programmes, control of hog cholera, improved use of feed concentrates, establishment of cooperative marketing, installation of methane generators for waste disposal, provision of credit through farmer associations, construction of modern slaughterhouses, and establishment of meat packing plants. It appears that the development of the country's livestock industry has closely paralleled non-agricultural development, a sort of demand pull situation. In fact, it can be hypothesized that it is not possible to improve the livestock industry of any country to any extent (as measured by efficiency) unless it takes on a commercial flavour -- and that, in turn, requires economic growth of the economy as a whole.

CONCLUSIONS

There will be considerable expanded demand for livestock products in the region due to shifts in tastes and preferences, income improvement and population growth. Beef and veal consumption is projected to grow between 50 and 75 percent. Pork consumption will likely increase 35–43 percent while poultry meat consumption will grow somewhere between 63 and 100 percent. Milk consumption will increase between 35 and 41 percent, while egg consumption is projected to increase between 50 and 159 percent.

The development in the regional feed balance sheets indicates that there were requirements of 2.79 × 10¹⁵ Mcal in 1970 and, that by 1984 requirements had grown to 3.17 × 10¹⁵ Mcal. Projections developed by a simulation technique in this study indicate that requirements will likely grow between 48 and 70 percent during the 16-year interval from 1984 to 2000. Thus, great demands will be made on the various feed production industries.

Much of the region's feed deficits are made up by imports. Much more feedstuffs imports would take place if foreign exchange were available. On a regional basis there are $36 worth of imports for every $1.00 worth of exports. Maize is the dominant feedstuffs imports, accounting for 53 percent of all feedstuffs imports by Japan, 58 percent by the Rep. of Korea, 52 percent by P. Malaysia, 42 percent by Singapore and 45 percent by the Rep. of China. The lower-income countries in the region generally had protein sources as a higher percentage of imports than the higher-income ones.

There is an abundance of problems in the livestock and feed industries of the survey countries. Despite high human population densities in most of them, the industries are well positioned to make substantial advances. The formula feed industries have all grown rapidly in both output and quality in the past decade, and infrastructure is generally available to service client's needs. However, much more can be done to improve production efficiency and quality of products.

Much work is needed in the development of mechanisms to transfer appropriate technology from one country to another. To a large extent, this even means among countries in the region. A major thrust area should be research and the promotion of non-conventional feed resources (NCFRs) and by-products. This is an area in which government effort is required. Overall, it seems that economics is the leading question followed by technology dissemination among countries and to producers.

A major constraint to improved feedstuffs utilization is the gap between research and extension. There seems to be a uniform lack of problem definition and priority setting across countries. A multitude of short-term studies are available which have relevance across countries, but which are not developed into on-farm trials. Furthermore, economic analyses of the type most meaningful to farmers are lacking. Thus, while extension as a whole is generally criticized, the more specific problem seems to be the coordination between research and extension.

One way to overcome the gap between research and extension is to emphasize the farming systems methodology for both feed production and utilization. This methodology, which is oriented toward the needs of small farmers, is different than traditional farm management research for it specifically sets research priorities that reflect the holistic perspective of the whole farm/rural household and natural and human environments. It is aimed at defining general farming systems in a region. It is a most beneficial research/extension approach for the region as research is carried out on farms in collaboration with research stations and is specifically action (change) oriented. A principal activity is the conduct of on-farm trials and measurement of both response and farmers adoption of innovations. As a consequence, since extension personnel also comprise an integral part of the interdisciplinary team, it has become known as FSR/E. In effect, because a crucial point is recognition that producers are the focal point, it is one way to overcome the gap between research and extension.

It be concluded that while cropland has not grown appreciably in the region, much better use of it has been made in the past decade and a-half. In some countries cultivated land area is a constraint. However, in most cases substantially more crops or residues could be extracted. Major inhibiting factors are economics and technical know-how. This is also true in the case of pasture land, where there is a wide variability in utilization among countries.

Overall, it seems that government attention to improve animal feed production and utilization should focus on regional coordination efforts in applied research and dissemination programmes structured around the farming systems research and extension methodology. The major gaps seem to lie in ex-ante economic analyses of potential improved production practices, and then evaluation and information dissemination about them. It appears that the region could profitably develop a feed industry development plan given the many common problems shared by each country.

REFERENCES

Abou-Raya, A.K. “Preliminary Survey of the Feed Resources of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Countries along with Possible Means of Developing Them.” Cairo, Egypt, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, September, 1978.

Asian Productivity Organization. Livestock Production in Asian Context of Agricultural Diversification, Tokyo, Japan 1976.

McDowell, Lee R. “Preliminary Survey of the Feed Resources of Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada and Barbados along with Possible Means of Developing Them.” Santiago, Chile. Food and

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, September 1983.

Simpson, James R. and John De Boer. “Project Design for Mixed Farming Systems in Northeast Thailand.” Proceedings of Kansas State University's 1983 Farming Systems Research Symposium Animals in the Farming System, Paper Number 6. Farming Systems Research paper Series, Office of International Programs, Kansas State University, May 1984.

Simpson, James R. The Economics of Livestock Systems in Developing Countries: Farm and Project Level Analysis, Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1988.

United Nations, World Population Prospects: Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1982, New York, 1985.

TECHNICAL APPENDIX

Note 1. Demand Projections

Historical human population and projections are from the United Nations publication World Population Prospects: Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1982. The medium variant is used for projections. An exception is the Rep. of China where data are taken from official sources. Published reports on growth in per capita consumption of the various commodities to the year 2000 are not available for most of the countries evaluated. Thus the range, as defined by “small” growth and “moderate” growth, are based on experiences in countries with similar consumption patterns, cultural makeup, etc. as well as analysis of historical patterns in the survey countries. “Moderate” projections are official government projections where available. Work on projections is part of an on-going project by the author.

Note 2. Individual Animal Feed Requirements

Average annual requirements adopted for ruminants are 9.0 kg of dry matter (DM), 2.7 Mcal/kg of digestible energy (D.E.) and 11.0 percent crude protein (C.P.). Those needs then correspond to annual requirements of 3.29 metric tons (MT) of DM, 8.88 MT Mcal DE, and 362 kg of crude protein. Digestible energy can be converted to ME using a factor of 0.82 so the final requirements are thus 7.28 MT Mcal ME.

Crude protein is used in place of digestible protein because the latest (1982) National Research Council (NRC) feed tables for the United States and Canada only report crude protein, not digestible protein. There are no tables for the survey countries and, furthermore, when requirements are reported they are almost always derived from the NRC tables. Protein composition of feedstuffs and requirements are no longer published as digestible but rather as crude protein because, on the requirements side, metabolic fecal protein makes up a large proportion of the apparently indigestible protein consumed minus the crude protein excreted in the feces.

Crude protein of feedstuffs is calculated through laboratory analysis by multiplying the nitrogen content of a feed by 6.25 (the reciprocal of dividing 16 percent average protein content of most feeds by 100). Digestible protein is determined through animal metabolism trials. However, because few of these trials have been carried out, it cannot be used on a practical basis to estimate an individual feed. Previously, most of the digestabilities were calculated from crude protein figures.

The relation between digestible protein and crude protein varies by feedstuff. In general, grains are more digestible than roughages. Thus, for example, while the DP content of cottonseed hulls is 0.2 percent, the CP content is 3.9 percent. On the other hand, maize grain has a DP value of 6.7 percent and a CP value of 8.9 percent. Consequently, to the extent that DP values are used, CP would be about 15–25 percent more than reported. In general, protein calculations in this study are in line with ME calculations on a relative basis among countries.

Swine requirements are adopted from the NRC by taking into consideration the requirements of each type of animal, from sows to piglets, and then hogs being fattened for market. In addition to classes of pigs, it is recognized that the national herd composition will vary dramatically depending on the relation between backyard operations and proportion maintained in commercial operations. Another confounding factor is marketing approaches such as emphasis on lean type hogs or fat type. Consequently, any attempt to develop standard ME and CP requirements for a particular country is a heroic task open to criticism when applied to 12 countries as diverse in systems and climates as those found in the region. Nevertheless, a standard of 3.31 Mcal/kg DM and 16 percent CP have been chosen as daily requirements. These translate to 3.62 mt and 172 kg of CP, respectively, per pig as reported in the national inventory (Technical Appendix Table 1).

The choice of standardized units for poultry involves the same problems as swine. Evaluation of the systems leads to adoption of 0.11 MT of ME for layers and backyard poultry, and 0.06 MT for broilers. CP is set at 6 kg for layers and those designated as backyard or village, and 4.0 for broilers. Broiler requirements are based on four groups of birds per year (see notes, Technical Appendix Table 11). Finally, in order to avoid confusion, the standard terminology of 1000 Calories (Large C) = 1 Mcal, and 1000 Mcal = 1 Kcal is employed.

Technical Appendix Table 1. Standardized Units for Estimating Animal Nutrient Requirements in Survey Countries

(1) The livestock standard unit (LSU) is an adult cow weighing 454 kg. A tropical livestock unit (TLU) is based on an adult zebu cow weighing 250 kg. A modified TLU as defined in this table is an adult cow weighing 400 kg. The average modified TLU/head in the herd is based on a national inventory with 40 percent adult animals 40 percent 1–3 year old cows and 20 percent newborn calves. The average herd modified TLU for cattle is thus 0.70. Other species conversions as suggested by Dr. Donald Huss (FAO, as cited by Abou-Raya, 1978) are swamp buffalo 0.8, sheep 0.2, goats 0.166 and camels 1.0. Conversions of 0.6 and 0.5 have been adopted for mules and asses, and yaks and chauri, respectively.
The conversion factors to MTLU are used to develop ME and CP values for classes of livestock other than cattle. For example, where 7.28 MT of ME are required annually per head of inventory of cattle of the size and type described above, then a proportion of 0.6 compared with 0.7 is required formules. In this way it is determined that 6.24 MT of ME are required for each head of mules found in national inventory.

(2) Ruminants

CP. Assume 9 kg DM/day times 11percent = 0.99/day of CP times 365 days = 362 kg annually.

ME. 9 kg DM/day times 2.21 Mcal/KG DM = 19.89 kg Mcal/day times 365 days = 7.28 MT per head of inventory.

Swine

CP. 3KG/Day DM times 0.16 percent CP = 0.48kg/day times 365 days = 172.2 kg/day.

ME. 3 kg/day DM times 3.31 Mcal/kg DM = 9.93 kg/day times 365 days = 3.62 tons annually.

Poultry, layers

CP. 0.11 kg/day times 0.15 = 0.165 times 365 days = 6.0. ME. 0.100 kg/day times 2.8 ME = 0.308 ME/day times 365 = 112.4.

Poultry, Broilers

CP. 5.0 kg/birds raised times 0.20 = 1.0 times 4 groups/yr = 4.0 kg

ME. 15 kg ME/bird times 4 groups = 60 ME total/yr = 0.60 MT.

Appendix Table 1. Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products, 12 APO Survey Countries, 1984 ^a

Note:     ^a See Technical Appendix Note 1.
^b Beef and veal include swamp buffalo meat.

Appendix Table 2. Estimated Annual Total Consumption of Livestock Products, 12 APO Survey Countries, 1984

Note: ^a Beef and veal include swamp buffalo meat.

Appendix Table 9. Feedstuffs Importation, Trade, Rep. of China, 1984 ^a

(Unit: NT$ million)

Note: ^a None or no dta available on exportation.

Appendix Table 10. Feedstuffs Importation, Fiji, 1984

(Unit: F$1,000)