1.INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND

This analysis of the constraints to and potentials and opportunities for expanded fish production in Bangladesh is undertaken as an integral part of the project activities and outputs of the UNDP/FAO Project on Institutional Strengthening in the Fisheries Sector (BGD/87/045). The Sectoral Planning and Project Analysis component, one of 8 major components of the Project, calls for the preparation of the study, development of the methodology and training/transfer of skills to local staff on the analysis of constraints and potentials.

In planning and implementing future development activities, it is now not only necessary but would be environmentally responsible to consider the impact of development activities on the environment, especially on the productivity, stability, sustainability and equitability of natural resources. Past development activities have adversely affected the wealth or more specifically the stock and flow of many natural resources which have supported life in this country. Such encroachment on the wealth of these natural resources would not have occurred had policy-makers taken a more balanced and integrated approach to economic development given the existing information and knowledge.

1.2 PURPOSE

The main purpose of this study is to bring together in summary form all the pertinent information and data relating to the sector to identify and determine the major constraints to and potentials for expanded fish production in Bangladesh. Both marine and inland fisheries are reviewed with regards to their present and future potential contribution to fish supply for the country.

A detailed overview of the sector is made to highlight the development thrusts and objectives of the government's existing policy for fisheries development and management. Second, it is to obtain a better picture of the technological, economic (including market) and socio-cultural-politico-institutional forces shaping the industry. After an examination of the resource base, demand and need for fish, constraints to and potentials and opportunities for expanded fish production, a plan and programme of actions to overcome the constraints and tap its potentials/opportunities is outlined.

This sector review also provides the background against which alternative new policy, strategy and approach to fisheries development and management in achieving production targets and objectives for the sector are explored. Policy-makers and planners as decision-makers are responsible for the final choice of priority.

Throughout this study, the guidelines and principles as set out in the “Strategy for Fisheries Management and Development” endorsed by the 1984 FAO World conference on Fisheries Management and Development are consulted in the preparation of this analysis of potentials for and constraints to expanded fisheries production for Bangladesh.

1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE FISHERIES SECTOR

Fisheries, like agriculture in many ways is also an important sector of the economy of Bangladesh. It is only recently that its contribution to economic, social and nutritional goals are gaining recognition. The sector's contribution is now not only being documented but increasingly acknowledged by the government. It was not the case in the past. Because of its traditional role in food supply and national food security to an extent, fisheries is now increasingly being incorporated into integrated agricultural, rural and community development as well as water resource and coastal zone management and development.

1.3.1 Bangladesh Fisheries: Past, Present and Future

For a country endowed with abundant water but scarce land resources, Bangladesh has not adequately responded to and capitalised on this natural resource endowment. With such an aquatic resource environment, it is assumed that fish is naturally abundant and being a living renewable natural resource, fisheries is viewed by many people as an unlimited resource. It is there for the taking without any need to develop nor manage it.

Thus, for a long time, the “development and management” attitude and approach to the country's fisheries if it can be called as such, has consisted of purely production-oriented activities. These consisted mainly of extracting, that is purely harvesting or taking out without real concern for the resource system's long-term productivity, stability and sustainability (let alone equitability).

In other words, less attention was devoted to the rational and optimum management of the resource. The basis for fisheries development and management then was to encourage all out production: harvesting. In short, extraction !. This is, however changing. Thus, the future approach to and basis for fisheries development is for the government to establish the mechanisms and framework as well as develop the necessary skills for and competence in fisheries planning and management, involving all relevant disciplines (FAO, 1986). Careful management and investment planning based on reliable data and information are also an indispensable part of this new approach.

1.3.2 The Sector and Industry: Supply and Demand

The fisheries of Bangladesh is divided into 10 subsectors as follows. Table 1 presents the sources of fish production from 1984–1989.

1. INLAND WATERS: CAPTURE

   1. Rivers and Estuaries
   2. Sundarban Areas
   3. Beels
   4. Kaptai Lake

   5. Floodplains

2. INLAND WATERS: CULTURE

   6. Ponds
   7. Baors

   8. Shrimp Farms (Brackishwater)

3. MARINE WATERS: CAPTURE (no mariculture yet)

   9. Industrial or Trawl Fishery
   10. Artisanal or Smallscale Fishery

In 1987, the national fish landing is estimated at about 815,000 tons, of which inland fisheries contributed about 73 % or 597,000 tons. This 597,000 tons of inland fisheries output is from 2 main sources: 431,000 tons from inland capture fisheries or 53 % and 166,000 tons or 20 % contributed by inland culture fisheries. The remaining 27 % or 218,000 tons is from the marine sector, all of which is from capture. There is as yet no culture-based marine fisheries or mariculture. Smallscale artisanal fishermen land 26 of the 27 % or slightly over 205,000 tons. The large scale or industrial fishermen as they are referred to in Bangladesh account for the other 1 % or 12,000 tons.

An examination of Table 1 will quickly show that the country's fisheries, especially the inland subsector is not well at all given the country's vast expanse of water resources and national reliance on fish as a main (80 %) source of animal protein. Inland capture fish production has steadily decreased since fisheries statistics was first collected in 1983, ranging from 1.4 to 4.5 % each year. Even the inland culture fisheries is not growing as fast as it can, relative to the progress and growth achieved in neighbouring countries.

For the marine subsector, except for the smallscale fisheries, growth is similarly slow. In fact, production from the largescale fisheries is falling. So is the number of trawlers. Even the growth in the output from the smallscale marine fisheries is slowing down. Its growth in output can mainly be attributed to the rapidly growing number of fishermen instead of gains in per unit productivity or catch per unit effort (cpue).

Table 1. Sources of Fish Production, 1984–1989

(Figures in parenthesis are percentages of national total)

Even though total fish landings for 1987/88 and 1988/89 have increased by 1.5 and 1.2 % each consecutive year to 827,000 and 841,000 tons since 1986/87, its growth rate is still below that of the population growth rate. This is in spite of various mitigating measures, incurring large financial outlays already adopted to increase production. It is also very likely that total supply of fish will decrease in the coming year or so due to the extensive loss of and damage to the country's fishing boats and trawlers as a result of the 29 April 1991 cyclone and floods.

In 1986/87, Bangladesh exported about 21,000 tons of fish or almost 3 % of the total fish catch. Thus, on an aggregate level the annual supply of fish can be pegged at an average of about 0.8 million tons.

Fish supplies about 80 % of the animal protein consumed by the population, more than two-thirds of whom subsist or eke out a living on the margin or below the national poverty threshold of Tk2,350 (US$67) per person per year. Fish's nutritional contribution becomes even more indispensable when it is viewed in the light of the supply of other animal protein sources like beef, poultry, mutton and eggs available in the country. The dhal (a rich source of plant protein) or lentil equivalent of the national poverty threshold is estimated at about 84–90 kg/capita/year or about 230– 250 gm/capita/day.

Since the early 1960s, the daily per capital availability of fish has been declining from 33 to 22 gm. The government has stepped up measures to increase fish availability to 25 gm by the end of the Fourth Five-Year Plan (1990–1995). Accordingly, the government has targeted a fish output of 1.2 million tons in the Fourth Five-Year Plan (FFYP). This is about 45 % increase over the Third Five-Year Plan (TFYP) output of 840,000 tons.

The TFYP envisaged a target of 1 million tons during 1989/90 compared to 774,000 tons during 1984/85 at the end of the SFYP (1980–1985). In reality, the country only produced 840,000 tons by the end of 1989/90 or a shortfall of 16 % over the TFYP target. Thus, the performance of the fisheries sector is not as planned (see Table 2).

Fish supply shortfall is even greater if need as opposed to effective demand is taken into account, as can be seen below.

Karim (1988 and 1990) estimated that Bangladesh would need about 3.66 million tons of fish by 1990 and 4.59 million tons in 2000 based on minimum nutritional requirements. Another estimate made by Mudahar (1990) of the World Bank projected that the demand for fish in Bangladesh will increase to 1.1 million tons by 2000 and 1.4 million tons by 2010. At present, only about 0.8 million tons are landed.

Table 2. Fish Production: Target and Actual

(Note: nya = not yet available)

The Marr Mission (1985) Report, widely referred to as the Master Plan for Fisheries estimated that total fisheries production can be increased by almost 515,000 tons by 2005. Of this increase, about 460,000 tons or almost 90 % will be from aquaculture broken down as follows: 380,000 tons finfish or 83 % and 80,000 tons marine shrimp and freshwater prawn or 17 %. As is obvious, no increase is expected nor likely from inland capture fisheries. Taking into account the projected loss of about 140,000 tons due to the extensive water development projects (i.e FCDI/FCD embankments and structures), a net increase in total fish output of 375,000 tons can be expected by 2005. The Marr Mission's projected increase in fish output is clearly insufficient to meet the growing demand and need for fish. Much more needs and has to be done to increase fish production.

Bangladesh is clearly a fish deficit country (in spite of its vast water resources). Fish has traditionally been and continues to be a “staple” item in the Bangladesh diet. It is estimated that about four-fifths of the household expenditures (proxy for incomes) is allocated or spend on food. This is particularly true among the low to lower-middle income segments of the population. The poverty incidence in Bangladesh is reportedly about 75–80 %.

1.3.3 Fish Price Structure

There exists a fairly large subsistence fishery in Bangladesh. Because of widespread poverty in the country, especially in the countryside rural families invariably engage in food gathering activities to provide for their daily subsistence. Fishing is one of these activities widely observed in the rural areas. The fish landed by these food gatherer-fishermen normally do not enter the market channel except when there is the rare occasion when a surplus over family/household needs is caught.

For the fish entering the distribution and marketing channels, a fairly efficient system in moving the fish from the fishermen and fish farmers to the final consumers exists. Priced within the purchasing power of the rural and urban poor with average disposable income of Tk500–1,000/month/household, effective demand for fish will not be a serious problem. Current retail fish prices range from Tk30 to Tk120/kg in Dhaka. These are for hilsa (Hilsa ilisha) and rui (Labeo rohita) respectively.

For the other freshwater species such as punti (Puntius sp), pabda (Ompok sp) and pangas (Pangasius pangasius), they can range from Tk40–80/kg in the urban areas and Tk10–60/kg in the rural areas. For marine species like hilsa, Indian salmon (Polydactylus indicus) and pomfret (Pampus sp), the lowest to the highest price is from Tk10–45/kg in the rural areas and Tk35–60/kg in the urban centres.

Prices outside Dhaka will vary and in general will be pegged to the prices prevailing in Dhaka and the other major consumption centres and their proximity to the centres of production. Being a fish deficit country in general, especially in urban consumption centres, demand for fish will be more than adequate. In fact, such demand can be further augmented by an appropriate fish consumption promotion campaign and fisheries price policy. The gap between supply and demand is widening as amply reflected in the rising fish prices. Government attention should also be directed to motivating fish production for low income markets.

Fish, in particular freshwater fish which is the preferred species is no longer as abundant as in the past. Not only does the fisheries landing statistics clearly bear this out, the variety and range of choice of fish by preferred species and size sought by the rapidly growing consuming public are also decreasing.

Such supply and demand disequilibrium is economically manifested in the market place as continuously rising fish prices. Table 3 provides the prices of a few selected fish which are popular in the Dhaka market.

Table 3. Price Levels of Selected Fish in Dhaka
(Wholesale Market Price)

It is certain that supply disposal will not be a constraint. Furthermore, continuing high population growth rates of about 2.0– 2.5 % vs 1–2 % fish production growth rates alone will dictate that more fish have to be produced and urgently. At the aggregate level, the per capita fish consumption in fact has been declining since the early 1960s, from 12 to 7 kg per annum. For example, assuming the current very low level of per capita consumption of fish of 22 gm daily from the 33 gm about 30 years ago, by the year 2000 (a short 10 years away) an additional 0.3 million tons of fish is needed to maintain even the present consumption level.

Although aggregate demand in general is “actually” suppressed due to a lack of purchasing power at present, the purchasing power of the people is expected to steadily improve over time. Supply of fish instead of its demand is more of a problem. Likewise, the export market for Bangladeshi fisheries products has also been growing steadily and looks very promising. Demand is literally limited by supply. Expanded production of fish is thus urgently needed.

1.3.4 Sectoral/Industry Problems

The fishing gear employed by the artisanal fishermen include but are not necessarily limited to gill net (mainly for hilsa, Hilsa ilisha), set bag net, trammel net (a kind of gill net) and longline. The industrial fishermen rely for the most part on the 50 or so trawlers remaining in the fishing fleet. For reasons to be determined, the number of trawlers has steadily declined from 73 in 1983 to the present 49–52 units. This is a decline of about a third of the fishing fleet size in 7 years. On the other hand, the number of artisanal fishing boats in the marine subsector has rapidly increased from 4,100 in 1983 to 9,593 in 1987 to 17,331 boats in 1988, an increase of over 100–300 % in the ensuing 7 years. A more detailed analysis is presented later in Chapter III.

Thus, at the pre-harvest level the problem is one of over-capitalisation from overcrowding of the smallscale fisheries sub-sector. Even though there are many smallscale fishing boats, fish output has not increased in proportion to the increase in effort. This clearly implies that the fisheries is overfished or fished at or close to its maximum sustainable yield (MSY).

The growing scarcity of fish in the country is alarming for two reasons. First, at the present rate of growth of the fisheries industry, the country is not able to produce and supply the fish needed to meet the present demand, let alone the projected requirement of 1,126,000 tons of fish by the end of the FFYP period (1990–1995). This is a shortfall of almost a third of the present output level. Even at the projected level of fish requirement, each person only gets about 24.5 gm per capita per day, up from the 20.5 gm at the present time. Thus, fish self-sufficiency is a long way off.

Second, the scope for importing fish to fill the gap in the production shortfall is financially untenable as the country cannot afford another import bill. The only remaining recourse is to produce the fish domestically. To do this, the structure, conduct and performance of the entire industry from the pre- to post-harvest levels have to be closely examined to find out what inhibits the growth or expansion of the industry in general and expanded fish production in particular.

Although the Marr Mission projected a net increase in total fish output of 375,000 tons by 2005, the production target of 1.2 million tons of fish envisaged in the FFYP has not taken the Mission's empirical basis into consideration. The 1.2 million tons production target is a hefty 43 % increase over the 1989 output level. This implies that little or no reference has been made to the past and present performance of the sector in setting targets. From 1984 to 1989, the sector growth rates range from 0.48 (1988– 1989) to 2.65 % (1984–1985) respectively. See Table 1.

More specifically, a review of Bangladesh fisheries data, in particular inland fisheries statistics will reveal that the production and productivity of this inland fisheries resource have been steadily declining over the years. Rahman (1989) sums it up best:

“… during the last two decades, the productive potential of the country's open water fisheries has declined considerably due primarily to overfishing and implementation of flood control, irrigation and drainage projects. During the period 1979–80, an estimated 235,000 tons of fish were harvested from the country's huge flood plains. By 1986–87, the production from these flood plains had dropped down to approximately 184,000 tons. It is anticipated that by the year 2000, the net negative impact of all flood control projects on the overall inland open water capture fishery will be a decline in production of 150,000 to 250,000 tons, therefore reducing total production of inland waters by approximately 50 %”

Besides the impact of the extensive flood control projects, there is also a simple cause and effect relationship underlying the present resource exploitation phenomenon. Rahman (1989) succinctly describes the revenue-oriented fisheries management system of the government-owned fisheries (khas waters: jalmahals, sariatmohals, jalkars) under the Ministry of Lands. Under this revenue-oriented fisheries development and management regime, two economic forces are at work which give rise to overfishing.

aa. To maximise revenues to the government, the khas waters or government-owned water bodies like jalmahals, beels and baors is awarded or leased to the highest bidder.

bb. To maximise his revenues to recover his investment in leasing the water bodies, the lessor in turn harvests the leased water bodies to the maximum possible without any concerned for resource conservation. This resource “plundering” is further compounded by the short-term nature of the lease.

As a result, the resource system and the fishing communities, especially the smallscale fishermen dependent on it are further impoverished. Not only do these fishermen remain the poorest segment of the country's population, the productivity, stability, sustainability and equitability of the resource system are subverted and compromised.

In the final analysis, overfishing gives rise to resource depletion, to the detriment of all and advantage to none. To restore the resource system equilibrium again, serious effort and commitment to fisheries management as well as injection of carefully planned investments by both the public and private sectors are required.

1.3.5 Export of Fish and its Future Prospects

Of the total catch landed, Bangladesh exported about 24,000 tons of shrimp and fish or almost 3 % in 1987. This is valued at about US$140 million. This is an increase of 55% over the 1985 export value of US$90 million. On average, the country's fish exports earn about 12–14 % of the total national foreign exchange revenues each year. This is projected to grow steadily in the future due mainly to the export of shrimp which is a high value commodity.

Shrimp accounts for over 70 % by volume and 80 % by value of the total fish exports in 1989. As Table 4 shows, the value of fish exports increase further in 1989 to almost US$150 million. The 29 April 1991 cyclone, however may setback this export drive temporarily as a result of the extensive damage and/or loss to the 31,000 ha of coastal shrimp farms and fishing boats.

Out of 46 private shrimp trawlers, 6 were sunk, 26 grounded and 14 partly damaged during the cyclone. In addition, it was estimated that about 2,150 out of 5,000 motorised fishing boats including their gear have been lost or severely damaged. Another 13,000 or so non-motorised boats and gear were also lost or badly damaged. Trawlers account for 16 % of the shrimp catch, farmed or cultured shrimp 47 % and the remaining 37 % by smallscale or artisanal fishermen using small mechanised or non-mechanised boats.

To streamline the market for Bangladesh's fish exports Everett, et al (1985) pointed out that the Export Promotion Bureau of the Ministry of Industries and Commerce should liaise closely with the Department of Fisheries of the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock in setting export targets based on a realistic assessment of the availability of the commodity. The impact of such targets on the fisheries resources should also be studied, especially if the targets are unrealistically set.

For reasons already alluded to earlier, the country's export drive to earn much needed hard currency should not be made at the expense of local availability and consumption of fish.

Table 4. Volume and Value of Fish Exports
(Tons and US$ Million)

1.4 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES

Since Independence in 1971, Bangladesh has pursued a policy of “planned development”. By this is meant that development is systematically planned through conscious and deliberate effort. That is, little or nothing is left to chance and the “invisible hand”. Along this line, the country follows a “systematic planning and target group approach to economic development”. At the same time, it is also complemented by sector-based planning.

Development planning for a country as poor as Bangladesh is clearly a complex process and difficult task. This is because of the almost limitless needs and wants which have to be met and catered to. Tremendous pressures exist on the selection, choice and priority of competing ends and means to achieve national goals. It is against this background that the following national development objectives and targets are established. These objectives and targets are largely determined by the prevailing socioeconomic reality of the country which is mainly characterised by rapidly growing population, widespread poverty, malnutrition and unemployment, among others.

01. Reducing population growth

02. Expanding productive employment through human resource development

03. Accelerating economic growth

04. Alleviating poverty

05. Increasing national self-reliance

1.4.1 Fisheries Sector Objectives

As in the recent past, the general thrusts and directions for fisheries development at present and in the future are alleviation of poverty, improved nutrition, creation of greater employment and income-generating opportunities through increasing the productivity and production of the fisheries economy in general and its main subsectors in particular.

In this respect, well-conceived strategies and objectives constitute an integral part of the planning process. For fisheries (capture and culture), the following strategies and objectives for the rational development and management of the country's aquatic resources in the short-, medium-and long-term are:

General:

1. To increase fish production as “technically and economically efficient” and rapidly as possible consistent with the local resource base, availability and supply of abundant labour and water, and the demand for fish (read labour-and water-intensive as opposed to capital-intensive production systems).

2. To keep the predominantly rural population of the country (over 80 %) in the rural areas and slow down excessive rural-urban out-migration as far as practical.

3. To improve the economic use of land and water in the rural areas through integrated rural development, in particular integrated crop-livestock-fisheries-forestry production systems.

4. To strengthen all possible roles and contributions of the fisheries sector in national economic and social development like for food, employment and income.

Short-Term:

1. To carry out extensive artificial stocking of the inland open waters, most notably in beels, baors, haors in the country's extensive floodplain, Kaptai Lake and selected rivers with fish fingerlings.

2. To transfer new technology to the fishing and fish farming communities by developing or upgrading their skills through extension and training programmes.

3. To reduce or minimise post-harvest loss resulting from poor and improper primary handling and secondary processing of fish through extension and training, provision of adequate supply of water and regular inspection of fish landing, handling and processing, marketing and distribution facilities.

Medium-Term:

1. To revive fishermen's cooperatives to strengthen the fishermen's bargaining position in bidding for the lease to fishing rights in government-owned water bodies under the New Fisheries Management Policy, input procurement and product disposition.

2. To stimulate the development of a more balanced growth between inland, marine and culture-based fisheries.

3. To offer fisheries as an investment alternative equally as competitive and attractive as any other investment opportunities in the other sectors or economy by providing incentives like tax-free holiday.

4. To expand existing and penetrate new markets for Bangladeshi fish products in domestic and international trade in fish to earn foreign exchange for the country.

Long-Term:

1. To actively create awareness on the need for fisheries management and conservation and gradually enforce fisheries laws, rules and regulations governing the exploitation and development of open water capture fisheries.

2. To attract smallscale fishermen out of the fisheries wherever overcrowding and overcapitalisation of the country's fisheries is found.

3. To interest and mobilise greater internal and external private sector financial resources to invest in the country's fisheries.

4. To develop and strengthen the manpower and institutional capability of the Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock in carrying out its mandate and responsibilities in fisheries.

5. To ensure that the interests of the fisheries sector will not be overlooked or neglected in any future plan or project involving any change (however slight) in the country's water regime and resources.

6. To further involve key members of the country's fishing and fish farming communities in the planning and implementation (including monitoring and evaluation) of fisheries projects.

7. To further streamline procedures and measures to effectively implement projects in the fisheries sectoral plan.

1.5 OVERVIEW OF PLANNING

It is therefore imperative that in setting objectives, targets and priorities for fisheries, these should be based on a reliable assessment of the size and magnitude of the resources and the technology available to exploit them, the markets to be served and the prevailing socio-cultural, techno-economic and institutional conditions found in the country. This calls for scientific and systematic planning and implementation of the plan drawn up.

1.5.1 Purpose of Planning

The major purposes of economic and development planning in general and of a five-year plan in particular are to develop and bring together in a single working document the mechanism and operational framework to:

1. plan for long-term development, in particular to improve the resource system's productivity, stability, sustainability and equitability to increase national output and income both for the present and future generations.

Such long-term planning calls for a systematic and rigorous consideration of all possible bio-physical, environmental, technoeconomic, socio-cultural, institutional and legal aspects of resource mobilisation, development and management on a productive, stable, sustainable and equitable basis.

A comprehensive inventory and review of the national resources available, their development constraints, potentials, opportunities and resource (e.g land and water) use capability should precede such a planning process. Such an exercise is commonly referred to as a sector study or sectoral review when it is carried out for a particular sector like the fisheries sector.

More importantly, planning can also bring about conflict resolution, especially in a multi-objective and multi-resource use setting such as in a five-year plan when it is carried out well in advance (i.e before plan implementation). Because planning systematically outlines and maps out in advance a programme of actions, mainly project activities to be performed, a faster rate of economic development can be expected and obtained.

An economic or development plan is a detailed articulation and specification on the formulation of a programme of actions or the means for achieving a set of goals or ends and targets put together ahead of time. It contains a detailed orderly method and procedure of proposed projects designed to increase national output and income in improving the people's standards of living and national well-being.

This is now collectively referred to as human development and an index, HDI (Human Development Index) is being used either independently or in combination with per capita income or per capita GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to reflect the social welfare state of the country. Planned development as opposed to unplanned effort can ensure the attainment of the objectives and targets set out more readily and rapidly.

Projects are the building blocks of a plan. As such, the identification of project ideas, project conceptualisation and detailed project formulation are integral parts of the planning process. In this study, much more emphasis will be given to project identification and project proposal preparation.

Further, a comprehensive government policy framework for the whole economy and each of the different economic sectors which encourages and stimulates production and consumption initiatives of the people must also be present. Production and consumption (supply and demand) are at the core of economic development, the “lubricant” to accelerate the economic engine of growth and prosperity.

For this purpose, different policy options are open to the government. Experiences from developing countries have shown that certain fiscal and monetary policies (e.g on prices, taxes, quotas, tariffs, minimum wage, interest rates) have inhibited production (supply) and consumption (demand).

In addition to promoting greater economic and social development, government policy and planning must also ensure that there will be equitable income distribution too.

1.5.2 Planning Strategies

Following from above (see 1.5.1 on Purpose of Planning - # a), the second major purpose of economic and development planning is to:

2. develop and work out strategies and approaches to underpin and achieve the objectives of long-term development as in # a above.

The basic planning strategy for the economy and individual sectors must as early as possible identify the fundamental “thrusts and directions” for national development. As not every idea can be developed into a project because of budgetary limitations, priorities are clearly needed. Further, not only should the underlying development strategies be identified and defined, policy-makers and planners should also work out and ensure that these strategies are consistent and mutually reinforcing with each other.

A good case in point to illustrate the need to ensure that development objectives and strategies are not contradictory or inconsistent is best provided by the seemingly incompatible objectives of increasing fish output, improving nutrition and income by creating more employment in a fisheries which cannot support higher output or is declining or overfished (as is the case in Bangladesh). On closer scrutiny, they are not as inconsistent as they appear to be. This is because effort in the form of stock-enhancement and production-oriented projects are being planned or underway to ensure that these objectives can be achieved.

Development objectives and strategies are not established without reference to the carrying capacity of the resource base to support the attainment of the objectives. They are only set after careful consideration of many factors which impinge on them.

Due to growing economic interdependence and intersectoral linkages, greater coordination and integration of the different sectoral plans are also clearly needed at the national level. The potential impact (beneficial or positive and adverse or negative) of activities in the other sectors and from outside on fisheries and vice-versa needs to be closely examined. This is especially true in the case of pollution and effluence from other industries.

The changes which will be introduced or brought about in the sector by the new Five-Year Plan are expected to steadily improve the economy. New fisheries sector initiatives will stimulate economywide activities, resulting in greater output and income. Where low productivities exist due to structural inefficiencies, the strategy is to improve upon or remove them. Thus, the development strategy for the sector must be well-balanced and coordinated not only with the other sectors but also with the overall national strategy for the whole economy.

1.5.3 Planning and Attracting Investment

The third purpose of economic and development planning is to:

3. attract investments from the public and private sectors either of domestic or foreign origins to expand and strengthen the fisheries sector and ultimately the national economy.

To be able to attract and draw investments away from competing alternatives in the different sectors of the economy, the sector interested to mobilise such resources must be able to provide incentives or inducements over and above certain minimum conditions which are not available to the other sectors. Fisheries in Bangladesh is increasingly one such sector. Beginning in 1989, government fisheries policy-makers and planners have declared it to be the next “thrust sector” for the country. However, it is not without RISKS.

For fisheries to be the next “thrust sector”, a well thoughtout and formulated sectoral plan with well spelled-out short-, medium- and long-term objectives and targets is necessary. However, before such a plan can be conceived, the country's policymakers and planners must spell out the national policy or policies for fisheries. In the absence of a clearly defined fisheries policy, planning becomes a more difficult exercise. The sectoral plan, being an integral component of the national plan must adopt strategies which are not only consistent to but compatible and complementary with those in the other sectors of the national economy. Such an approach will minimise possible conflicts in objectives and resource use.

Properly designed and executed, the plan provides a well-focused mechanism in the (i) mobilisation, (ii) rationalisation, (iii) allocation, (iv) combination and (v) transformation of domestic resources into productive intermediate or final outputs and services for the people. Very often and wherever possible, external resources are also tapped to increase this national output and income. Planning thus serves not only to minimise multi-resource use conflicts intra- or inter-sectorally but also inconsistent or contradictory development objectives and targets.

In summarizing, to ensure that the national resource system being used remains productive, stable, sustainable and equitable requires planning for long-term development, especially systematic holistic planning. This can be brought about by firstly developing and implementing the necessary economic policies and strategies for the country as a whole and also the different sectors of the national economy.

In carrying out the actual process of planning, many problems and issues previously not thought of like inconsistencies, conflicts or contradictions in objectives or strategies are brought out, placed in sharp focus or perspective and resolved as far as practical. Development targets such as production targets must be set and adjusted according to past experiences and the progress in achieving them. This means that the validity and relevance of the objectives and targets must be periodically evaluated.

Expanded fish production is clearly required as recent price trends show growing supply scarcity, very often leading to observed manipulation of prices in the fish market. Under this market condition, not only does the producer do not benefit from the higher prices but the consumer also suffers as well. It is the middlemen or the market intermediaries who gain from such market manipulation. However, this is not to deny that the middlemen are providing a valuable service in the flow of products from the producers and centres of production to the consumers and centres of consumption.

1.5.4 Plan Implementation and Management

Without effective plan implementation and execution, a well-formulated plan remains just that - a plan on paper ! Although a plan consists of proposed projects, it does not contain specific project proposals for achieving the stated plan objectives. By the same taken, proposed projects are useless unless they are made compatible and consistent with the plan strategy and targets. Bangladesh experience has shown that a major obstacle to plan implementation is the lack of trained manpower and institutions and financial resources to carry out and manage the project activities as provided in the plan.

Sound planning should also take into account the inherent limitations imposed by the prevailing socio-cultural-techno-economic-financial realities found in the country in which fisheries development and management must take place. That is, policy-makers and planners should not be overly ambitious in setting objectives and targets. Nothing discourages the people more than the lack of progress and shortfall in target achievement.

1.6 FISHERIES DEVELOPMENT SETTING

For a country endowed with abundant water but scarce land resources, Bangladesh has not adequately responded to and capitalised on this natural resource endowment. Instead, it has chosen to emphasize agriculture, water development, especially flood control and drainage, power, and to an extent industry. This is mainly due to the more urgent and pressing need to control and manage the annual severe floods and inundation of vast areas of the country for prolonged periods.

The severity of these annual natural disasters leave human lives, crops and livestocks, property/real estate completely devastated in their wake. Food, being the most basic need for survival, its production receives greater attention. As a result, agriculture is emphasized (as should its diversification too). The agriculture sector inclusive of rural and water development receives 23 % of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) budget in 1989 - the largest allocation in the national budget.

Until recently, less attention was given to fish production as a source of food because fish is thought to be naturally abundant in the country's vast waters. Besides, the floods are also thought to bring more fish through natural recruitment and stock replenishment. But real-life experience shows that different causes, factors and circumstances both natural and man-made or -induced have combined to reduce the natural abundance of fish. Notable among these are:

1. overfishing which arises from too many fishermen chasing after too few fish, collectively referred to as overcrowding and over-capitalisation

2. habitat and breeding ground destruction due to the construction of extensive flood control, drainage and irrigation structures and the adoption of other flood mitigating measures, uncontrolled pollution (e.g agricultural pesticides and factory discharge/effluence)

3. use of resource-damaging fishing technology like small meshsize gear

4. extensive siltation and shoaling of the country's 24,000 km network of rivers

5. lack of effective enforcement of fisheries laws, rules and regulations, in particular against illegal fishing methods and gear

But more fundamentally, the annual recurrence of natural calamity renders asset and wealth accumulation a dilemma and a continuing fight in nation-building. Economic rebuilding is thus formidable and becomes a continuing uphill battle. As domestic capital formation is both a necessary and sufficient condition in achieving economic growth and prosperity, the government has the responsibility to create the conditions for domestic capital to build up.

Now that these waters have largely been “tamed” by extensive dikes, embankments, polders, flood control, drainage and irrigation canals, government attention can be turned to mobilising and utilising such water and land resources, including reclaimed land for food, crop, livestock and other raw material production. These fresh effort will mitigate some of the losses in fish catch from reduced natural recruitment and stock replenishment.

With such poldered land and water resource complexes, risks and uncertainty arising from the annual monsoons and floods are minimised to an extent. The people and government can begin to systematically and rigourously plan their future. More planned fisheries production, development and management is one of these. In the past, there has been very little planned fisheries activities. This process has already begun.