Over the past ten years aquaculture has grown at a rate of nearly 10% per year, reaching a total of 19.9 million tonnes with a total value of US$ 33.8 thousand million in 1992. This represents a very significant increase in the importance of aquaculture in food supply by comparison with traditional capture fisheries sources; if one considers only aquatic animal products (fish, crustacea, molluscs) directly used for food, aquaculture doubled its proportion in overall supply since 1984 to some 20% of all food fish supply in 1992.

It is to be expected that the aquaculture sector will continue to grow, although the rate of growth can be expected to slow down eventually as resources and markets become progressively saturated and opportunities for expansion are restricted. Growth in production will come from improving yields and efficiency, as well as from an increase in production infrastructure; the trend towards increasing intensification will continue in many parts of the sector. Against a background of stabilising or even falling catches from the traditional capture fisheries, increasing population and an ever-increasing global demand for food, there is now a major challenge in re-examining the nature and potential of the sector, and to ask just how far aquaculture might go to satisfy the expected increase in demand for its products.

A brief and unavoidably speculative projection has been suggested based on an analysis of present trends and anticipated developments. This suggests that overall aquaculture production of all kinds could reach a total of 47 million tonnes by 2010, of which 33 million tonnes would be of fish, crustacea and molluscs produced for food. Such a prediction is clearly optimistic, while remaining well within the bounds of possibility that are suggested by past experience; resources and markets could accommodate such increases although it is not possible to foresee which major constraints might come from outside the sector.

It is important to note that, in historical statistics as well as in making projections for the future, a significant proportion of production is accounted for by fish produced in semi-intensive systems for carp culture in China and to a lesser extent India. China alone accounts for about half of all aquaculture production; consequently, any analysis of aquaculture statistics is inextricably linked to events in this one country, albeit a very large one. The majority of these traditional aquaculture activities are carried out on a small scale and are family operated, while the product provides a significant contribution to local food consumption as well enhancing family financial security.

Aquaculture is a notably diverse activity, and an appreciation of this diversity is fundamental to the understanding of the issues influencing its future development. This applies to an assessment of requirements for resources of all kinds, to the way aquaculture may develop independently from the fisheries sector, to the prospects for producers from all economic levels or locations, or to opportunities for developing new markets.

The diversity of the sector is an assurance of a range of benefits involving food, income, employment and social opportunity.

Among these issues, food security is important. Aquaculture can be a significant contributor to local food security providing food directly to the producer or to the immediate community, especially in many areas of Asia. This contribution can also be indirect - as an economic activity which is regular and reliable, especially in comparison with traditional capture fisheries, and as an option for diversification into new opportunities. In those locations where food security is a significant issue, the key producers often operate at a small scale, directly involving families or communities. In terms of policy direction and options for specific development aims, this offers possibilities for involving disadvantaged groups, in targeting activities for the benefit of women, or in helping landless groups where there are under-utilised water bodies.

There has been a trend of increasing influence of the private commercial sector at the expense of traditional public sector involvement. This has brought benefits to the sector in terms of efficiency, competitivity and dynamic expansion, and the private (market oriented) sector will remain the appropriate institutional context for many aspects of aquaculture development. However, there is still a key role for suitable institutions to play in ensuring that the desired benefits are obtained, and they can provide general policy and planning guidance, resource allocation, research support, human resource development and provide a positive legal framework designed to protect producers and consumers, and to safeguard the opportunities for the small operator to enter the sector.

One of the key aspects of institutional involvement concerns the integration of the aquaculture sector into overall management of natural resources, both from the point of view of the sector needing resources in competition with other economic or social uses, as well as protecting the quality of aquatic resources suitable for aquaculture production. Aquaculture must ensure its adequate involvement in resources management through the emerging disciplines of coastal zone and watershed management, which together cover most aquatic resources of importance to aquaculture production. Issues of sustainability and of preservation of adequate biodiversity are particularly important to the long term development of aquaculture.

Attention to human resource development will be important for aquaculture development as the sector continues to experience the considerable changes and growth that are expected. Research support in essential fields of science and technology will be crucial, because although many specific problems can be tackled by commercial producers themselves, small scale producers in the semi intensive sector, who assure the major part of aquaculture production, will continue to need such support.