Parviz KARBASI (Iran, Islamic Republic of) : In the name of God, my delegation would like to thank FAO for preparing document C 93/24. We welcome all of FAO's initiatives in agricultural development with all other UN agencies and NGOs.
I would also like to thank Mr Hjort for his clear introduction to Agriculture: Towards 2010. In his introductory statement, Mr Hjort mentioned that changes in institutions and human resources are one of the keys for success.
We all believe that lack of technology, lack of knowledge, lack of skilled human resources in developing countries, lack of institutional structure and lack of capital are the main reasons for poverty and hunger in the world.
We are close to the end of the century and at the next Conference we shall celebrate the Fiftieth Anniversary of FAO. We believe that the main responsibility for agricultural development rests on the shoulders of each country, and international fora are just to initiate, and give some support for, this responsibility.
My delegation believes that FAO can make its contribution to Agriculture: Towards 2010 through world distribution of agricultural information for which millions of dollars have been spent in preparing data. We know that many developing countries have difficulty in getting electronic mail, CD information on computer, even to have microfiche or microfilm. In this respect, I hope Commission members agree with me in asking FAO to prepare and to publish 50 years of success and failure of FAO activities in time for the next Conference. This publication would primarily be used in all agricultural colleges and universities, by policy-makers at national and international level and might help in the development of agriculture until the year 2010. FAO could sell this valuable publication and make some money. Also, this publication would indicate to Member Nations of the Organization which units of FAO have made the most contribution to the
development of agriculture, show us the abilities of each department, and give a chance to the new Director-General to find out where he stands and how he could restructure this Organization for the year 2010. I think this would be the best evaluation of the work of FAO professionals. It is necessary that it should be done and would be a useful publication for all of us.
Abdelkader EL MAZHOR (Maroc): Pour ma part, je souhaite féliciter le Secrétariat de l'excellent travail qu'il nous a présenté et surtout de l'effort fourni pour élaborer ce document. Ce travail constitue, à notre sens, une référence très utile et très riche en données et en analyses des politiques qui sont indispensables pour les projets de développement à l'avenir.
Avec votre permission, j'ai quelques remarques à formuler au sujet des chapitres 3 et 7.
En ce qui concerne le chapitre 3, relatif à l'alimentation et l'agriculture mondiale dans les vingt prochaines années, il est dit, au paragraphe 3.6, page 66 du document, que selon les perspectives de la FAO la croissance économique dans les pays en développement s'améliorera dans les années 90 par rapport à la dernière décennie. Cependant, le revenu par habitant resterait faible compte tenu du taux élevé de la croissance démographique. Or, les résultats obtenus au début des années 90 ne sont pas encourageants quant à la croissance économique. On peut se demander si cette projection ne peut pas être revue compte tenu de la récession que connaît actuellement l'économie mondiale.
Ma deuxième remarque concerne le paragraphe 3.9. A l'échelle mondiale, il est prévu que la croissance de la produciton globale continuera de baisser pour atteindre 1,8 pour cent par an au cours des vingt prochaines années. Ce ralentissement intervient lorsque la demande non satisfaite par la production locale ne peut s'exprimer sous forme de demande effective d'importations et induit ainsi une augmentation de la production dans une autre partie du monde.
Cela sous-entend que les pays en développement ayant déjà entrepris les réformes de libéralisation n'ont pas obtenu les résultats escomptés pour améliorer leur production alimentaire et en même temps dégager les moyens financiers pour importer selon leurs besoins.
Selon le paragraphe 3.99, le solde net des échanges agricoles des pays en développement en termes réels a baissé en 1988-90 par rapport à son niveau de trente ans plus tôt. En effet, les projections relatives aux besoins d'importations et aux disponibilités exportables des principaux produits agricoles indiquent que les pays en développement pourraient très prochainement se transformer d'exportateurs en importateurs nets de produits agricoles. Par ailleurs, les tendances des prix n'indiquent pas que les cours moyens des produits dont les pays en développement sont exportateurs nets augmenteraient plus vite ou baisseraient moins que ceux des produits dont ces pays sont et resteraient importateurs nets. La seule certitude, c'est que les prix réels des céréales et des produits laitiers, principaux produits importés par les pays en développement, ont peu de chance de baisser ou pourraient même augmenter.
La première conclusion, c'est que les pays en développement vont exporter moins que par le passé par rapport à leurs importations. La deuxième
conclusion, c'est que les experts n'ont pas pu cerner avec précision le sens de l'évolution des prix d'exportation par rapport aux prix d'importation. La conséquence pour les pays en développement, compte tenu de ces deux conclusions, c'est que le solde de leur balance commerciale agricole reste incertain bien que l'étude anticipe une baisse de ce solde.
Pour ce qui est du chapitre 7 :
Paragraphe 7.37: D'après ce paragraphe, la protection indirecte (taux de change, taux d'intérêt, niveau de salaire...) a été plus forte que la protection directe (prix intérieurs des produits, ...) durant les années 80.
En effet, une protection directe positive peut se traduire par une taxation si on tient compte de la protection indirecte.
Ce constat montre que la politique sectorielle de protection (produits agricoles) ne peut atteindre son objectif que si elle tient compte des politiques macro-économiques du pays.
Paragraphe 7.41; Les réformes des politiques des prix comportaient une augmentation des incitations grâce à une réduction de l'écart entre les prix frontière et ceux qui étaient payés aux producteurs.
Cette conclusion mérite d'être explicitée.
En effet, dans le cas des produits importés, la réduction de l'écart entre les prix est une baisse des incitations.
Paragraphe 7.49; Bien que les réformes des prix soient nécessaires à la croissance agricole, le pessimisme quant à la réactivité de la production de l'ensemble du secteur aux seules incitations par le prix à court ou moyen terme appelle des mesures autres que les prix, en particulier l'amélioration de la recherche, des infrastructures, etc.
Dans le cadre des programmes d'ajustement structurel et, en particulier dans le cas du Maroc, les biens collectifs ne constituent pas en général une composante de ces programmes.
Il y a lieu d'insister sur la nécessité de prendre en considération l'amélioration des infrastructures dans le programme d'ajustement struturel.
Paragraphe 7.64: L'instabilité des prix d'importation et d'exportation peut aboutir à des crises occasionnelles de la sécurité alimentaire.
Dans ces conditions, la recherche d'un plus grand degré d'autosuffisance alimentaire peut être justifiée dans la mesure où il est difficile de mettre en oeuvre d'autres politiques (tarifs douaniers variables, réserve en devises, etc.).
Dans le cas des pays en développement en général et du Maroc en particulier où le budget de l'Etat ne permet pas de donner des incitations à la production pour améliorer le niveau d'autosuffisance, la protection à la frontière, notamment par le système des prix de référence, constitue, à notre avis, la seule alternative pour corriger les distorsions du marché mondial et éviter ainsi l'instabilité excessive des prix intérieurs.
Avant de terminer, je voudrais signaler que nous soutenons la proposition faite par le représentant de l'Iran, relative à la publication des réalisations de la FAO durant les cinquante dernières années pour la prochaine Conférence.
Chrysanthos LOIZIDES (Cyprus) : The report of the study on the prospects for world food and agriculture until the year 2010, as presented in document C 93/24, will become, in our view, a very useful reference book during the forthcoming years. We share the view that the findings of this study can contribute substantially to alerting people, governments and organizations to consider in time the measures and activities necessary in order to reverse the predicted negative trends and to prevent the aggravation of the problems of food security and the environment. For this reason we wish to commend the Secretariat and the authors of this report for the good work they have done.
We also thank Mr Hjort for introducing this item.
Referring to the overall content of the report, we appreciate the fact that the various issues elaborated throughout the thirteen chapters of the report - well documented by tables, figures, soil maps and appendices - are concerned, basically, with two major issues. These are: the prospects for enhanced food security and nutrition and for improved sustainability of agricultural and rural development. The same two themes coincide with the declaration of the ICN and UNCED Conferences respectively and, as stated by the FAO Director-General in his introduction, "are at the very heart of the FAO's activities".
The key element of the study under review is that the growth rate of world agricultural production will be lower in the next 20 years and it is estimated to be 1.8 percent compared to 2.3 percent for the last 20 years. On the other hand, world population is expected to reach 7.2 billion compared to 5.3 billion in 1990. The bulk of the population increase will be in the developing countries where the aggregate increase of food supplies is likely to be less than required to raise the average per capita supplies to levels compatible with food security for all, as stated in paragraph 1.11 of Chapter I. Consequently, the crucial problem of chronic under-nutrition, which is presently affecting around 800 million, will continue to be not only an incubus but a great challenge for the whole of humanity.
The failure to alleviate poverty is widely recognized as the main reason why under-nutrition persists and this is repeatedly mentioned in the report study. In the light of the fact that in many of the developing countries the vast majority of the population depends on the agricultural sector for their employment and income, the increase of food and/or agricultural production is rightly considered among the principal means for combatting poverty.
However, the issue of poverty alleviation is certainly a multi-disciplinary and complex issue that goes far beyond the coverage of this study. For this reason we shall limit our brief comments on specific topics concerned with the need for management and/or development of natural and human resources within the process of agricultural production increase vis-à-vis the need for enhanced food security and the need for sustainable agricultural development.
The perspective developments presented in the study are surely not very promising as regards security and the environment, but they provide a good basis for corrective policies and activities aiming to raise food production in a sustainable manner.
In this context we believe that more priority should be given to agricultural and rural development strategies to enable the wide sector of agriculture to play its significant role in food production and poverty alleviation. Within this strategy, the sustainable use of productive resources, namely land and water, as well as human resources development, should be treated as one fundamental issue.
The relevant documentation in the study report reveals that there is scope for improvement in the areas of land use, soil nutrition, pest management, the application of proper cultural practices and the integration of crops and livestock production. Likewise, in the area of water resources much more could be achieved through the necessary infrastructure works and proper water management arrangements leading to water savings, increased efficiency of irrigation and the expansion of irrigated areas, thus raising land productivity.
On the other hand, the development of human resources, namely the human resources engaged, directly or indirectly, in the agricultural sector, will positively affect both the production levels of the sector and the promotion of sustainable agricultural development.
The information presented in Chapter 10 is very eloquent with respect to the education level and the agricultural extension services in the developing countries. Figure 10.1 on page 264 indicates that the illiteracy rate goes up to 70 percent for males and to over 96 percent for females. In paragraph 10.19, page 266, it is stated that in the developing countries, one extension agent covers 2 500 economically active persons in agriculture, while in developed countries the same ratio is 1:400.
Briefly speaking, there is a great need for human resources development in the developing countries.
One of the sound messages of the study-report is, in our view, the need to harmonize the use of agricultural resources with the food production increase, which is urgently required for the elimination of chronic undernutrition. Surely this is not an easy task. It is sufficient to mention here that many of the developing countries and the countries of excentrally planned economies are still in the process of stabilization and structural reforms aimed at correcting the relevant policies and measures. Most of these countries are in great financial difficulties and that makes it more difficult for them to mobilize financial resources for development.
We have reasons to believe that the international community cannot be indifferent to this situation. We do hope and wish that the spirit of solidarity and cooperation betwen the privileged and the less privileged people, sooner or later will prevail for the benefit of all.
As we mentioned earlier, the wider sector of agriculture is expected to play a significant role in the process of overall development, especially where a large part of the population depends on this sector for employment and income. Consequently, this Organization, being the lead agent for food and agriculture, will have to strengthen its activities even more for providing advisory services and other assistance to needy countries on
aspects of policy advice, development projects design, agricultural training and extension services and for promoting regional and international cooperation among its Member-States.
In concluding, we wish to make the following observation. Cyprus was not included among the countries covered by the study under review. However, in the land map for the Near East, which is inserted between the pages 125-127, the whole island of Cyprus is presented as a completely non-productive land. This is not true. For reasons of accuracy we wish to place on record that the agricultural land of Cyprus amounts to 50 percent of the total land, of which around 16 percent is irrigated, the forest land is 19 percent and grazing land is only 11 percent. The remaining 20 percent of the total land includes non-cultivated land, riverbeds and sites of towns and villages.
ZHANG XIGUI (China) (Original language Chinese): Mr Chairman, first of all please allow me on behalf of the Chinese delegation to thank the FAO Secretariat for having prepared a very informative and complete document, C93/24, and thank Mr Hjort for his lucid and concise presentation which provides a sound basis for our deliberations today.
We have noted that after giving an overall analysis of the factors affecting future agricultural development, the document made scientific projections about future world food security and nutrition status as well as the sustainability of rural development. This is of great significance for the preparation of scientific and rational strategies and policies by the international community and by national governments for agricultural and rural development.
As projected by document C 93/24, with the increasing world population and deteriorating and diminishing environment and resources, world food and agriculture is faced with evermore daunting tasks and challenges which call for greater efforts and more resolute political will from the international community and national governments to eradicate poverty, hunger and malnutrition so as to ensure steady and sustainable development of food and agricultural production.
In this connection, we wish to appeal once again to the international community and the developed countries in particular to make further efforts to lessen the debt burdens of developing countries, to speed up technical transfer and increase resource flows and assistance to these countries; to strive to remove protectionism in trade and agricultural commodities; to improve trade terms for developing countries so as fundamentally to remedy the irrational and unbalanced pattern of world food and agricultural production and distribution; to create an external environment for agriculture and rural development which is favourable to common development and which will benefit all countries and establish a new just order of global food and agricultural production and trade.
At the same time, we hope that developing countries themselves will exert their own efforts and in the light of their specific conditions promulgate economic development strategies and policies conducive to food and agricultural enhancement with a view to strengthening their self-reliance capabilities. We believe that the eradication of hunger and poverty is still an issue of primary importance and urgency facing the current and future world food and agriculture production.
Development and conservation and environmental protection are two sides of an issue of equal importance and should be well coordinated in future world food and agricultural development. The latest science and technology, conducive to the conservation and utilization of the environment and resources, should be fully utilized. In addition, the adoption of farm production and management measures benefiting environment and resource conservation is of vital importance. It is our hope that FAO will launch more activities in this field, strengthening its technical assistance, policy advice and training of personnel for developing countries as well as enhancing the cooperation and exchange among developing countries. China is ready to share its experience and exchange its technical skills and carry out full and all-round cooperation in this regard with other countries so as to make its due contribution to the sustainable development of world agriculture.
Arnaldo BADILLO ROJAS (Venezuela): Queremos sumarnos al reconocimiento que las otras delegaciones han expresado a la Secretaría por el esfuerzo realizado en la elaboración de este importante documento sobre Agricultura: Hacia el año 2010. Queremos hacer referencia a la tipología de .países que se desprende de la lectura de los puntos 1.16 y 1.17 en la introducción de este documento, ya que hay un conjunto de países que no corresponde exactamente a la categoría de países desarrollados o en desarrollo, donde la seguridad alimentaria ha dejado de ser un problema grave, ni corresponde tampoco al grupo de países en desarrollo, con una muy alta proporción de población rural, que dependen fundamentalmente de los recursos agrícolas para su seguridad alimentaria. Es el caso de aquellos países como algunos países latinoamericanos donde los procesos de inmigración rural urbana y la urbanización han avanzado significativamente desde hace varias décadas y presentan, dentro de su especificidad, un cuadro general de pobreza urbana además de pobreza rural que, por supuesto, está demandando un esfuerzo importante para mejorar el uso de sus recursos agrícolas con fines alimentarios a medida que avanzan en la aplicación de sus políticas de apertura económica y se integran progresivamente en la economía mundial.
Quizás una cierta deficiencia de estudios de situación en América Latina y El Caribe haya contribuido a que esta modalidad de sociedades en desarrollo no aparezca bien reflejada en esta sección del estudio de la agricultura del año 2010.
De allí, señor Presidente, nuestra insistencia en que se inicien cuanto antes en América Latina y El Caribe los estudios de situación que la FAO recomienda en el documento sobre Productos Básicos, analizado en el 105º período de sesiones del Consejo de esta Organización, a fin de sustentar en sus conclusiones la exploración de estrategias y políticas que permitirían a estos países enfrentar con mayor claridad sus problemas de seguridad alimentaria y producción agrícola en el futuro inmediato.
Jan GORECKI (Poland): My delegation wishes to congratulate the Secretariat of the FAO on the preparation of this document, which we found very comprehensive and of high analytical value. In comparison with the previous document - Agriculture: Toward 2000 - the progress is obvious. I would like to particularly stress the following points.
The analysis made for the strategic concept as far as agricultural policy is concerned covers a time period starting from early 1950s. Progress in the sphere of production in the developing countries is underlined. The
phenomenon was characterized by an increase in yields of crops, higher farming intensity, implementation of new technologies and an improvement in the relationship between food production and the number of population in many developing countries.
Then there is the close link which exists between the long-term development of agricultural and the natural environment as well as the ecological balance; this is strongly stressed. The document advocates balanced development which is very important.
While underlining the strong points of the document it is worthwhile paying close attention also to the weak points. In this respect, I would like to discuss the following questions.
First of all, the document does not present an entire FAO strategy towards new challenges such as new production marketing as well as the political situation throughout the world. The paper takes into account analyses and assumptions as well as instruments of national policies, and in that regard an outstanding job has been done. However, we cannot forget today that the strategy of a particular country depends on the global situation.
Secondly, in the very comprehensive studies concerning the state of agriculture and food supply, the main interest was focused on the production and supply aspect. However, nowadays the world demands new approaches towards the structure of market-places and international trade as well as a solution of the demand problems in the domestic market. The question of the market and other priorities in foreign trade cannot be limited to the Uruguay Round since its lack of success indicates that an entire liberalization of international trade may not be adopted by many countries. It is very possible that if the philosophy of the Uruguay Round eventually became a fact, developing countries will face a barrier to their development for some years. The world has to find a way to reach a new consensus in the field of international trade. It is unlikely, however, that such a consensus can be accomplished within the framework of the Uruguay Round.
Thirdly, the document mainly tackles the problem of the developing countries. That fact is well understood. However, we must not neglect the fact that there is one world and very strong interreactions between the domestic and international markets. Thus, developing countries will not be able to work out their own development strategies unless they take into account all aspects, including the needs of their own neighbours.
It is known that the Central and Eastern European countries are not in a position to work out their own development strategies without considering developing countries' markets. Contrary to the title, the document does not pay enough attention to forecasts for the year 2010 and further years. Reading the document one might have the impression that the authors have concentrated mainly on the past, and the picture of the future comes from simple extrapolation of previous trends. This is a difficult thing to do for all time, because some new factors will occur which may dramatically change the development trends.
Looking at the document, one cannot learn the programming method used by the authors, although there is no reason to question it. However, the analysis in Table 3.2 on page 64 in respect of the Central and Eastern European countries arouses some doubts. For example, it is unlikely that a long-term growth rate of agricultural production can decrease from 1.2
percent over the period 1970 to 1990 to an annual average of 0.4 percent in 1989, 1990 and the year 2010. According to our analysis, in Poland that indicator will amount to 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent.
Ms Katalin BAKK (Hungary): My delegation has read with great interest the document on Agriculture: Towards 2010. I deliberately refrained from using the verb "studied" because approximately three weeks at our disposal was not enough to go deeply into the merit of such an extensive and comprehensive document. Beyond congratulating the Secretariat for having tabled this highly valuable document, I would therefore like to offer some general comments only. The Hungarian agro-economists will be glad to comment more in depth should FAO require such expert opinion.
Some distinguished delegates who have taken an active part in FAO Governing Bodies' discussions longer than I have might remember the successful row of FAO long-term studies and plans on world agriculture. Roughly 25 years ago the Indicative World Plan, later on the even more sophisticated and scientifically balanced versions of the study "AT 2000" were milestones in the Organization's activity, trying to assess the future and draw some useful conclusions for FAO's medium-term and biennial plans. As a member of a delegation of a European country, I should also draw attention to the wish of previous conferences, whereby the study of the previous exercise of FAO on long-range planning, i.e. "AT 2000" was extended to cover developed countries in general and Europe in particular. The document before us on a twenty-year span up to 2010 may also lend itself to a similar extension in coverage.
My delegation has no reason to put the usefulness of an FAO long-range planning document to any reasonable doubt. In a rather sketchy way two major lines of previous trade papers referred to above have been made use of. The first was the guidance these plans provided for FAO and other international and national bodies in charge of agropolicies to draw up their respective medium-term plans and action plans, FAO work programmes included.
You may, Mr Chairman, consider the second field of perusal a bit trivial but I trust many of us do have the same experience. Hundreds of agro-economists, ranging from undergraduates to full professors, have drawn on these papers to get inspiration for their theses, their PhD work, lectures, and so on.
Continuing with somewhat more professional remarks, my delegation has been pleased indeed with the basic approach on the "AT 2010" study. Scholars may long debate the issue of abandoning the use of various scenarios in assessing expected production, trade and other levels in more than 16 years to come. But the general policy thrust very ably elaborated on in paragraph 1.84 is correct. It suits the organic train of thought on long-term agricultural development; i.e. agriculture in its broadest sense cannot and should not be considered as a sole entity only embedded in its full economic environment. Land, climate and other natural endowments are not the only factors of agricultural production, let alone marketing. Agricultural performance is affected both by micro- and macro-economic policies and measures - fiscal, monetary, industrial, budgetary, commercial etc. though they may be. Even human resources are pointed out in this context. We feel these have been slightly neglected in this study.
The keynote of the study on "AT 2010" is not too optimistic, but I am afraid realistic. The study actually does not foresee the closure of the nutritional gap for 2010 and the vicious circle of poverty and misuse of resources is not thought to be broken. The trade-offs between environment and production are not foreseen to yield satisfactory results.
Diagnosis always preceding therapy, my delegation thinks very highly of this study which might be of immense use and benefit to both international organizations and individual countries and policy-makers.
I have already mentioned that the study before us certainly needed time to prepare, but it also needs time to properly comment on. May I be permitted at this stage to make two closing remarks only. One refers to my country. I am not totally convinced that the terms used to define European countries presently in transition, such as Hungary - "ex-centrally planned" in one paragraph and "post-reform-market-oriented" in the following paragraph -should apply in the year 2010. The Hungarian Government is confident that by the end of the next decade these terms will have lost their meaning and Hungary will be an integral part of the group of countries of the Region without need of tags. This remark is not a technical one but serves only to reiterate my government's objectives.
Lastly, reading all the documents on the agenda of this Conference, the difference in the time-span of FAO long-term planning activity is noted. The study "AT 2010" is working with a 20-year period, whereas in the document on medium-term plans a possible vision of the year 2025 has been mentioned. I am sure the Secretariat will enlighten us on this matter.
In conclusion, I would convey our sincere appreciation to the FAO Secretariat for this study, which I trust will be the basic material for years to come of other papers which will cover more extensively various topics and regions.
Idi MAMAN (Niger): Monsieur le Président, je voudrais tout d'abord remercier le Secrétariat pour le travail accompli dans l'élaboration d'un document aussi complet et pour sa présentation claire et concise.
Monsieur le Président, pour Horizon 2010, il est espéré une augmentation des disponibilités alimentaires par habitant et une réduction de l'incidence de la malnutrition dans la plupart des régions en développement. Malheureusement, ce ne sera pas le cas dans une grande partie de l'Afrique subsaharienne et probablement au Niger où, selon les projections des tendances observées pour l'année 2008, le pourcentage de la couverture des besoins céréaliers sera de:
93 pour cent en année normale, 72 pour cent en mauvaise année, 103 pour cent en bonne année, 90 pour cent en année moyenne.
Monsieur le Président, pour améliorer ces projections des tendances observées, le Niger est en train d'élaborer un plan de développement économique qui accorde une place privilégiée au développement du secteur agricole dans le souci d'améliorer la sécurité alimentaire et nutritionnelle et d'augmenter également la contribution de l'agriculture au produit intérieur brut.
Monsieur le Président, dans cette oeuvre d'amélioration de la sécurité alimentaire et nutritionnelle, le Niger compte beaucoup sur la coopération avec les autres pays et l'appui de la FAO.
Abdelkader CHERIF (Tunisie): Monsieur le Président, ma délégation tient tout d'abord à remercier le Secrétariat pour la clarté du document C 93/24 et pour les précieux renseignements et les analyses pertinentes contenus dans ce document.
J'aimerais intervenir sur deux points que je considère importants. Le premier concerne l'évaluation, la gestion et la préservation du stock halieutique. Je crois que la FAO a un rôle primordial à jouer pour aider les pays en développement dans ce sens. La Tunisie est très sensible à ce problème et accorde beaucoup d'intérêt à leur solution. L'aide de la FAO à cet égard est primordial aussi bien pour mon pays que pour les pays similaires.
Le deuxième point concerne la recherche scientifique et technique. La Tunisie croit fermement au développement de la recherche scientifique et technique, qui est à la base du développement du pays en apportant des solutions aux problèmes qui présentent un intérêt particulier. Ainsi, la valorisation des déchets et des sous-produits agricoles grâce au développement des techniques de biotechnologie, en particulier, doit être une priorité. Ainsi, la valorisation des sous-produits de l'huilerie d'olive, à savoir les grignons et les margines, qui constituent à l'heure actuelle une masse polluante importante aussi bien pour la Tunisie que pour tous les pays méditerranéens, s'avère primordiale et la FAO peut contribuer efficacement à la résolution de ces problèmes en encourageant les programmes de recherche sous forme de PCT ou de réseaux de recherche.
Avant de terminer, je tiens à souligner que ma délégation est tout à fait d'accord avec les dernières recommandations formulées par le délégué de la Chine.
Ms Carol KRAMER (United States of America): The United States delegation considers "Agriculture: Towards 2010" to be an ambitious and generally-excellent review of world agriculture and food prospects. This work will make a valuable contribution to ongoing discussions of agricultural, food and environmental policies. What recommends the report most is its thorough and even-handed discussion of a broad array of issues affecting agriculture in different countries. The long-term outlook presented appears to be broadly consistent with related, but less comprehensive, analyses carried out at the US Department of Agriculture. That outlook is for a global balancing of supply and effective demand for the projected period, apparently without significantly higher real prices, even in the absence of major technological breakthroughs. Some significant reduction in the incidence of undernourished around the world seems likely. However, it is important to recognize that hunger will remain a serious problem and result in a continuing need for substantial emphasis on development strategies, assistance and food aid. Particularly at risk are areas of sub-Saharan Africa and portions of Asia.
We recognize that food security at national, regional and household levels depends on political and social and economic institutions which function well in addition to technology and resource availability.
The study makes good use of more recent findings in the field of environment and technology as they relate to agriculture and food prospects. The systematic use of agro-climatic data in Chapter 4 to assess potential production prospects in a large number of developing countries represents a promising advance in the analysis of world agriculture. Incidentally, does the Secretariat plan to publish more on this subject based on the information gathered, perhaps providing more detail and documentation of data for individual countries?
The absence of similar agro-climatic data for China is recognized by the report as a major limitation to the analysis. The generation of such data is a worthy future objective, as it is also for the countries listed in Appendix 2, including Namibia, and some of the tropical countries not included in the report's list.
The report's coupling of these agro-climatic data with surveys of the gap between average and top crop yields within countries shows both the potential for increasing output and represents the need for both private and governmental action to achieve that potential.
We would raise some additional points. In Chapter 2.8, and throughout, the term "long-term sustainability" is used but not defined. Sometimes it seems to mean reaching a steady-state population; sometimes it seems to imply decreased reliance on fossil fuels in agricultural production. Without excessive elaboration, this concept could be clarified. We found relatively little emphasis on agricultural demands for energy, for example, despite discussion of sustainability. In Chapter 11 the importance of "sustainable" alternatives to shifting cultivation as a means of reducing tropical deforestation is posited, but the meaning of "sustainability" is not clarified.
The entire issue of valuation of non-traded environmental amenities or natural resources deserves serious and immediate attention. Development of environmental accounts, particularly those associated with agriculture, fisheries, forestry and water supplies, is extremely important and should be coordinated with other international and national institutions now embarked on the path of trying to develop these constructs.
It is noted in Chapter 1, Chapter 13 and elsewhere that developed countries face a number of environmental problems associated with agricultural production and that they have taken measures to alleviate environmental problems associated with agriculture by developing "environmentally friendly" technologies.
Two qualifications here include, first, that the agricultural production/environment trade-off is not a "solved" problem in developed countries, and, secondly, many times trade-offs exist among environmental problems. There is often a trade-off between environmental problems of extensification, including deforestation or erosion, for example, and intensification, such as water or air pollution from increased chemical use.
Solving production/pollution trade-offs in developed countries can generate large spill-over benefits to developing countries through greater overall production potential. Future reports might bring empirical evidence to bear on the questions of (a) whether the developed country "environmentally friendly" technologies have in fact been successful, (b) under what
conditions they do succeed and (c) to what extent these successes might be transferable to developing countries.
Constraints related to water - both quantity and quality - are increasingly recognized as limiting to the development process. We would place even greater stress than does the report upon the importance of the availability of freshwater supplies in limiting production potential (and also favourable nutrition and health outcomes). The projections appear to assume rather immediate corrective measures to prevent further losses of irrigated land through salinization. How reasonable this assumption is depends upon the accessibility of many poor countries in Africa and South Asia to adequate financial resources needed to adopt adequate corrective measures.
Another water issue relates to the importance of managing freshwater supplies which may be inherently international since water bodies (rivers, lakes) form natural borders and countries share watersheds, Is FAO doing any work on the management of international water disputes or the diverse interests in water of different nations? In general there seem to be relatively fewer data on water allocation relative to other inputs and relative to water's increasing importance. The achievement of the levels of output projected would seem to imply an expansion of both public and private investment in agriculture in the developing countries. One might expect that the decline in such investment resulting from the financial stress in the 1980s might be creating the potential for reduced productivity in the 1990s unless investment recovers. Has this issue been addressed in any explicit way in the analysis?
The potential and limitations of new technologies are discussed in various chapters of the report in relation to yield enhancement under various circumstances. Chapter 12 notes that the international research system now recognizes the importance of environmental tradeoffs at the intensive and extensive margins after earlier missteps. It also notes that the research system has been relatively slow to respond. The report does not analyse or speculate as to why this was so. There is similarly very little in the document about the supply of technological innovations for agriculture and how they might be encouraged through the organization or funding of research. Finally, one specific neglected area of research is that of minimizing post-harvest losses of food in the marketing and distribution chain. Obviously, less food need be produced with concomitantly fewer resources required if losses can be reduced.
In the related FAO document entitled The Third Progress Report on the Implementation of the Plan of Action for Integration of Women in Development, the need for gender-specific data collection and analysis with respect to agriculture, environment, natural resource management, and food security is noted. However, that sensitivity to gender-related aspects of agricultural sustainability, resource management, technology development and adoption, as well as the institutional context, for agroecological sustainability and food security, could have been more fully considered throughout this analysis. One welcome exception in this volume is the section on training needs. We encourage full exploration of the relationships among gender, access to resources, property rights, sustainable agriculture and household food security.
Now I would like to make some comments related to sources of uncertainty attached to any projections as ambitious as those made in this volume AT 2010.
We would have liked to have seen a bit more extensive treatment of the assumptions about agricultural prices used in the analysis. A more explicit treatment of the implications of the balance between supply and demand projected for the various commodities and resulting prices would also have been welcomed. Similarly, we would like to know more about how an analysis of prices entered into the report's assessment of the potential impact of an agreement in the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations.
The future course of agricultural reform in the former Soviet Union, China, Eastern Europe, and the European Community are major sources of uncertainty about the future evolution of world agriculture. The outcomes projected for these areas are quite plausible, but we wonder if more extensive treatment of alternative, perhaps equally plausible, scenarios may be warranted.
Another source of uncertainty hinted at earlier is the future availability and prices of energy supplies upon which agricultural production depends heavily. This element needs more attention because the maintenance of current prices or sources of supply cannot be automatically assumed over the next two decades.
Finally, with regard to Chapter 8's treatment of international trade issues and policy, we would like to suggest that the treatment of the impacts of a successful Uruguay Round on world economy is somewhat incomplete. The World Bank/OECD has calculated that developing countries would gain US$70 billion in export earnings from a successful conclusion of this Round. Such earnings would likely provide a stimulus to world agricultural trade as increased developing country earnings would lead to additional food imports, including higher value food imports.
With regard to grain reserves, in the post-Uruguay Round it is imperative that more nations create national food reserves. No single nation or group of nations can be expected to bear the entire burden of maintaining global food reserves.
To sum up, all in all the Secretariat through AT 2010 has made a major contribution to our knowledge and understanding of the issues facing world agriculture in the coming decades. We look forward to further discussion of the many ramifications for future policies, programmes, and projects.
Mme Yvette LANGRAND (France): Monsieur le Président, j'ai évoqué le document Agriculture-horizon 2010 dans mon intervention sur le point 6.1.
Je ne voudrais pas que l'examen du point 6.3 se termine sans répéter notre appréciation très positive des informations qui nous ont été données, et aussi des commentaires faits par M. Hjort sur ce document, notamment sur la nécessité d'établir de bonnes politiques nationales. Je vous remercie.
Alfredo APEY (Chile): En primer lugar, señor Presidente, un saludo a su mesa y las felicitaciones por parte de mi delegación por el amplio y documentado texto preparado por la Secretaría así como por su sintética presentación. En segundo lugar, no puedo dejar de mencionar la coincidencia de opinión con lo expresado por el distinguido Delegado de la República de Venezuela, ya que mis palabras se orientan en gran medida por su misma preocupación
Para mi delegación es particularmente grato el llamado de alerta que subyace en este excelente documento acerca de las proyecciones y preocupaciones que deben concentrar nuestra atención durante los próximos años.
Con el objeto de ser breve, quiero referirme en forma muy especial al tema del Capítulo 9: "Agricultura, pobreza de los campesinos y desarrollo rural", destacando el subcapítulo 3, referente al crecimiento agrícola y pobreza rural.
En éste se destacan los efectos diferenciales que el crecimiento agrícola ha promovido en distintos países utilizando claros ejemplos en donde experiencias exitosas se relativizan frente a regiones que, en lo social, no sólo se estancan, sino que en casos se empobrecen.
Utilizaré el caso de mi país Chile, en el cual una exitosa tendencia de crecimiento macroeconómico, derivado del fuerte estímulo a las exportaciones agro-forestales, ha debido enfrentar algunos efectos de readecuación social bastante contrastantes.
En forma paralela al éxito exportador, que nadie discute, como lo señalan las estadísticas de los últimos 15 años, diversas regiones han visto surgir profundas transformaciones geográficas, derivadas del cambio de cultivos de consumo interno hacia cultivos exportables, llevadas a cabo por un floreciente sector de empresarios rurales.
Sin embargo, un activo mercado de tierras, con sus consecuentes procesos migratorios del campo a la ciudad, han dado origen a un fuerte contingente de campesinos sin tierras que con grandes sacrificios intentan adaptarse a una demanda de empleo caracterizada por una alta estacionalidad.
Por otro lado, un amplio sector de pequeños campesinos que por problemas de escala productiva no son atractivos para establecer contratos con empresas exportadoras, o simplemente por su marginalidad geográfica, falta de acceso a créditos y apoyos a la comercialización, entre otros factores, intentan subsistir contra los bajos precios de los mercados internos, o contra importaciones foráneas más competitivas. Mientras el país crece, muchos sectores de campesinos se mantienen en la pobreza. Nuestros esfuerzos por lo tanto se orientan a que estos últimos no sean también desplazados de sus tradiciones y cultura, aun cuando vemos con satisfacción como se expanden los bosques artificiales y se desarrolla una agricultura eficiente y competitiva en la cual se sustenta en gran medida nuestro crecimiento económico.
Señor Presidente, nuestra adscripción como país a la mayor apertura mundial nos ha dejado como experiencia que la readecuación social y productiva derivada de esta apertura es para algunos sectores difícil y dolorosa.
La especialización productiva de amplias áreas hacia la exportación encarece en el lugar el alimento diario; la justa y deseada incorporación de la mujer al trabajo, si no va ayudada de medidas en su apoyo, puede implicar problemas con el cuidado de sus hijos; las necesidades por un mayor crecimiento ponen en riesgo el deterioro del medio.
No es mi intención ser pesimista respecto al futuro. Sin embargo creemos que debemos estar atentos a los diversos efectos que el crecimiento agrícola va provocando cuando se busca sólo la eficiencia. Por esto, prestemos atención no sólo a los indicadores globales sino a sus
desagregaciones regionales e inclusive locales. Prestemos atención también a experiencias ya vividas en países que han incursionado en la apertura a mercados externos para así estar preparados para los cambios que podrán afectar a los países que progresivamente se adscriben a esta estrategia, y mostrar mejores niveles de vida global para el próximo siglo.
Finalmente, estimo interesante la propuesta del delegado de Irán acerca de una posible publicación sintética por parte de la FAO, lo cual podría ser parte de la celebración de sus 50 años.
Julio LUCINI CASALES (España): Es frecuente, como norma de cortesía, agradecer a la FAO el esfuerzo que realiza para preparar los documentos que manejan en sus reuniones las distintas delegaciones asistentes. En este caso hay que reconocer que la extensión, la diversidad de los temas tratados y la calidad en el contenido que presenta el titulado "Agricultura: Hacia el año 2010", hacen que sea nuestro agradecimiento mucho más que una fórmula de cortesía.
Queremos también indicar en este comienzo que la gran abundancia de comentarios y conclusiones que ofrece el documento hace totalmente imposible referirse a todos ellos, ni siquiera a una parte mínima de los mismos, para evitar hacer uso de la palabra por un espacio de tiempo que impediría cumplir mínimamente el que se ha asignado en total a este punto del programa.
En consecuencia, me referiré exclusivamente a una serie de temas en relación con el documento, que consideramos del máximo interés y que no siguen estrictamente el orden en que son abordados en el mismo ni tampoco un orden jerárquico ni de máxima importancia para mi delegación
Empezaré indicando que, según se desprende de los comentarios y de las tablas estadísticas que contiene el documento, pobreza y agricultura de subsistencia van normalmente unidas. Claramente se puede entonces concluir que el reforzamiento de la mejor utilización de los recursos en los países en desarrollo, y dentro de ellos en las zonas más pobres, puede ser un elemento clave en el combate de la pobreza rural.
En relación con lo anterior, anotamos igualmente la conclusión del estudio que se ha distribuido relativa a que la mayor presión sobre los recursos proviene tanto desde la pobreza como desde el desarrollo. Es evidente que las fórmulas para aliviar esta presión son distintas para una situación que para otra, pero así como desde el desarrollo es lógicamente más fácil establecer principios para su autocombate, desde la pobreza se requiere una actuación externa que es la que se puede acordar y poner en ejecución desde organizaciones como la FAO
Es evidente que todas las conclusiones del estudio dependen sobremanera de los resultados de acontecimientos o situaciones que se encuentran actualmente en evolución: ajuste de la nueva política agraria común que se está iniciando, resultado final de las negociaciones del GATT y mayor apertura comercial en los mercados mundiales, duración de la crisis económica que la mayor parte de los países están atravesando, etc. De todas formas, las previsiones a gran escala y a medio plazo que contempla el documento parece que pueden aceptarse como base de reflexión, pues la situación final podrá variar de forma notable a nivel nacional pero no tanto a nivel mundial.
En conclusión, la posible disminución de los excedentes totales mundiales, sobre todo en cereales, la necesidad de reconversión de ciertas producciones de productos básicos como el café y el cacao por estancamiento de la demanda de los países desarrollados, etc., hace imprescindible el establecer desde este momento medidas que contrarresten los efectos negativos de tales circunstancias. Estas soluciones se apuntan de manera poco explícita en el párrafo 1.36 al hacer alusión a que determinados países habrán de pasar de ser exportadores netos a ser importadores netos de productos agrícolas. Creemos que la profundización en los sistemas de equilibrio mediante la industrialización total o parcial en origen, la mejora de los procesos comerciales, etc, en estos casos, podría ser una vía de estudio futuro del máximo interés.
La mejora de los rendimientos unitarios en las producciones están condicionadas por numerosos factores que se estudian en el documento en varios apartados y en distintos capítulos. De entre estos factores vamos a hacer referencia a dos muy diferentes, los regadíos y la investigación.
La mejora de la productividad a base de aumentar las zonas en riego en los distintos países no descarta otra opción que pudiera ofrecer una rentabilidad inmediata y con costes relativamente reducidos. Se trata de la recuperación de numerosos regadíos establecidos hace tiempo que por dificultades iniciales en el diseño, por drenajes inadecuados, por inadecuada conservación, etc., se encuentran casi inutilizados en la actualidad. Programas que están llevándose a efecto por organismos como el IPTRID hacen pensar que esta posibilidad es digna de análisis y ejecución.
Otro problema también clave en la mejora de los regadíos existentes y en aquellos que se pueden instalar en un próximo futuro es el aprovechamiento máximo del agua de riego. El agua, como muy bien se llama la atención en varias partes del informe, está empezando a ser un bien escaso que hay que aprovechar al máximo. Estamos seguros de que los esfuerzos que se hagan en mejorar los índices de eficiencia en la utilización del agua de riego en los regadíos de los distintos países repercutirán grandemente en una mejora de la productividad general y en el ahorro de un bien escaso, el agua.
En cuanto a la investigación, coincidimos en la necesidad, mencionada en el párrafo 12.6 del documento, de alterar la inercia que muchos centros mantienen de estudiar e investigar en relación con unas prioridades nacionales e internacionales que la propia realidad ha cambiado hace ya tiempo. La labor en este sentido dirigida hacia los gobiernos y hacia los propios centros de investigación y ensayo haría mucho más rentables los esfuerzos que tales insatituciones vienen haciendo.
En línea con lo indicado en el párrafo anterior, y en la búsqueda de un desarrollo agrícola sostenido y por tanto de un futuro sostenible, habrá que dedicar los máximos esfuerzos en programas sobre sistemas integrados de nutrición de plantas y manejo integrado de plantas.
Acogemos con el máximo interés las indicaciones que en diversas partes del documento se hacen sobre los problemas de la desertificación así como sobre las dudas que en la actualidad se plantean sobre principios que hasta el presente se tenían como inamovibles en relación con este fenómeno. Nuestro país tiene un enorme interés en el mismo y en repetidas ocasiones ha mostrado su disposición a colaborar en cuanto desde la propia FAO, como desde otras instancias, se haga para determinar la forma más adecuada para combatirlo, sea en zonas reconocidas como inmersas en un problema grave,
sea en zonas en las que se esté iniciando esta circunstancia, como ocurre en varias de nuestro país.
España, país particularmente afectado por este fenómeno, considera necesario insistir en que no se puede tratar el tema como una mera cuestión de apoyo a los países subsaharianos más dañados por sus consecuencias sociales, económicas y ecológicas, sino como problema mundial que afecta a todos los continentes y que se encuentra interconectado con otros fenómenos ambientales y globales, aunque se pueda y se deba prestar particular atención a ciertas áreas.
Los problemas acuciantes de deforestación en zonas tropicales que el documento trata en varios de sus apartados pueden ocultar los problemas igualmente graves, y que posiblemente se esté aún a punto de atajar, de degradación en los bosques de zonas templadas. Por una parte, este problema tiene una cierta conexión con el anteriormente apuntado de la desertización y, por otra, creemos que el abandonarlo puede llevar a ciertas zonas y países a un punto de difícil recuperación.
Me referiré, a continuación, a un aspecto concreto dentro de.los muchos conectados con la lucha futura contra el hambre y la desnutrición. El punto 2.24 del documento examina la trayectoria de algunos países que obtuvieron buenos resultados durante los últimos años en cuanto a la elevación del suministro de alimentos per cápita. Aunque el análisis de las causas que han llevado al éxito no permite afirmar que el crecimiento de la producción agrícola sea siempre un elemento unido a estos buenos resultados, sí queremos afirmar que estamos convencidos que el crecimiento ordenado de la producción local de alimentos tradicionales es una forma segura y eficaz del control del hambre y la desnutrición. Por lo tanto, y para el medio plazo que establece el documento hasta el año 2010, es totalmente conveniente incidir en los proyectos que supongan mejora y aumento de producción de alimentos en los propios países afectados.
Para terminar, me voy a referir a temas generales pesqueros, actividad en la que mi país tiene un extremo interés y en la que viene colaborando permanentemente con las iniciativas de la FAO.
El documento dedica todo un capítulo a los estudios de los últimos acontecimientos y al futuro de esta actividad económica, pero también en el punto 1.98 le dedica un comentario que creemos es punto de partida inexcusable en todo lo relativo a la misma. Se precisa allí que este sector constituye, tal vez, el principal ejemplo de una limitación general a los recursos naturales que al parecer no puede superarse mediante la sustitución con recursos artificiales y tecnología, al menos no en la medida que puede preverse desde el actual nivel de conocimientos.
En línea con esta introducción al tema, es imprescindible destacar la gran labor llevada a cabo, especialmente en los últimos años, por la FAO con objeto de que los problemas de la actividad pesquera se enfoquen de forma global. Esto está llevando, sin duda, a crear una nueva mentalidad internacional en relación con la pesca en cuanto a sostenibilidad. El futuro de la pesca sólo será posible desde una responsabilidad asumida a. nivel individual, nacional e internacional.
Dentro de este contexto y como nuestro Jefe de Delegación ya indicó en su intervención, debe subrayarse el importante trabajo que la FAO en la iniciativa que representa la elaboración de un Código de Conducta para la Pesca Responsable, como instrumento de cooperación internacional obligado y
concordante en el imperativo de encontrar soluciones globales a los problemas actuales. Más aún, no resulta posible pretender asegurar la conservación de los recursos vivos marinos y garantizar la sostenibilidad de esta actividad, sin que exista un claro compromiso por parte de todos los países que pescan, de ejercer la actividad pesquera, tanto a nivel nacional como internacional de forma responsable.
Esta visión permite que las perspectivas de la actividad pesquera ante el futuro año 2010 tengan posibilidades positivas y no una baja esperanza para la misma.
Ms Gurí GRONOLEN (Norway): The Norwegian delegation has with great interest studied the document put forward by the Secretariat on this agenda item: World Agriculture: Towards 2010. We found the 1979 and 1987 editions comprehensive and very useful and we have strongly supported FAO's further work in this field. Thus, we have also studied "AT 2010" carefully. We are convinced that the study deserves the world-wide attention it is bound to get.
Before commenting on the findings of the study, I would like to say a few words about the methodology used in this study.
"AT 2010" is, more or less, built on past trends. We are looking at the history to address the future. However, the future will never copy history. Extrapolation of past trends will, therefore, have to be justified by critical analysis of a complex non
Therefore, it is very important that the study clearly reflects what are statistical trends and what is further analysis. Compared to the 1987 edition, considerable improvement has been made in this respect in the study "AT 2010".
My delegation's attitude is that "AT 2010" may bring realistic conclusions about the future agricultural and nutritional situation.
The two major issues in world food and agriculture are to enhance food security and nutrition and to improve sustainability of agricural development. My delegation's comments will, therefore, primarily focus on the prospective developments presented in the study with respect to these issues. We would also like to present some specific comments on the chapters on forestry and fisheries.
The study concludes that "there appear to be no unsurmountable resource and technology constraints at the global level that would stand in the way of increasing world food supplies by as much as required by the growth of effective demand". Effective demand is defined as demand from people who have the money to buy the food they would like. This is, of course, an interesting and important piece of information.
However, the Norwegian delegation thinks that it is even more important to address the possibilities of increasing total food supplies as much as required by the physiological needs in the world. We are appointed to note that the report does not provide us with any conclusion as to this possibility.
The study shows that the food supplies for human consumption in the developing countries as a whole will continue to grow. There will, however,
be immense regional imbalances in food security. The progress that was made in the period from 1970 to 1990 with respect to decreasing the number of chronically undernourished people will continue for the next 20 years.
The right to food and freedom from hunger are fundamental human rights and it is totally unacceptable that chronic undernutrition will affect as many as 650 million people in 2010.
The study underlines that poverty is the root cause to malnutrition and low food security. Poverty alleviation is therefore a key element in any effort to improve the nutritional status.
Norway has for over a decade allocated more than 1 percent of her GNP to development assistance. We appeal to all donor countries to increase their development assistance, at least to reach the international established goal of 0.7 percent of GNP.
The report of the Brundtland Commission identifies poverty as one of the major obstacles to attaining a sustainable development. Alleviating poverty is therefore a prerequisite to shifting agriculture on to a more sustainable path.
This leads me on to the second of the main issues concerning food and agriculture towards 2010, that is the development of a more sustainable agricultural sector.
The Norwegian delegation thinks that the findings of the study with respect to pressures on the environment from agriculture are very interesting to note. We would particularly point to the fact that competition for freshwater is projected to be stronger than the competition for land, due to the fact that many countries are closer to their water supply limits than their land resource limits. We also find it very interesting to note that earlier projects with respect to the area affected by desertification have been greatly overestimated.
We think that the findings of the study should be given due attention in policy formulation both at the national and international levels. However, it should be stressed that there is considerable uncertainty connected to the possible environmental consequences and the strength of the associated risks. This calls for policies and action based on a precautionary approach.
As pointed out in the study, developed countries have taken measures to overcome or continue to alleviate the more serious agricultural threats to the environment. These are measures connected to, for example, taking marginal land out of production and reducing the use of mineral fertilizers.
However, agricultural production in particularly the developed countries is characterized by high energy requirements and a considerable need for input of non-renewable resources. This fact raises a number of questions that relate both to the environment and to distributional aspects within and between generations.
The Norwegian delegation thinks that these questions should have been addressed in the study.
The study gives a very good presentation of the global forest and fisheries situation today and the prospects for the coming years.
One of the main findings in the 1990 Forest Resource Assessment was that there is a continuing expansion of the forest resources in the developed countries, in spite of an increasing harvesting rate. This may not be stated in the study sufficiently clearly. It must be added, however, that the assessment does not specify quality or economic availability of the resources.
In our opinion, the most important issues in this study with respect to forestry are excellently described in points 5.73, 5.74, 5.75 and 5.80. The core problems for forestry in the developing countries are of a social and economic nature and require extensive political commitments, both locally and globally
With reference to paragraph 6.54; there seems to be some confusion in the Secretariat as regards correct and precise reference to biological taxonomy. Marine mammals, turtles and sea birds are not endangered species. These are taxonomic groups of animals. Some species within each of these groups are endangered. Most, however, are abundant.
David SHERWOOD (Canada): No subject is more crucial to the prospect of life on this planet than the long-term outlook towards 2010 for food and agriculture. We would, therefore, like to express our appreciation to the FAO Secretariat on a very wide-ranging and comprehensive look at the future of agriculture over the next 17 years. The analysis corresponds in a general direction with much of the analysis of our own experts on the subjects covered. We support and commend the work of the Secretariat on the study. Given the complexity and mix of the trends analysed, and the uncertainty that attends such long-term projections, we have jointly to continue our efforts to clarify and identify the major priorities or threats to our future well-being. All countries should ensure that the political leadership is accurately informed of these trends. We support the Swedish delegate's comments that 2010 should be a cooperation exercise, and consider consultation with member countries as important.
Two of the principal forces impacting on the world agricultural outlook are population growth and the ability to assure sustainability of the environment. These concerns have to be examined in the context of the different development situations facing rich and poor, north and south, and the different dynamics of stability or instability faced by agriculture in the years to come. We would support the comments of the United Kingdom delegate on the need for sensitivity analysis.
Over the last one hundred years, the agricultural sector has largely been exploited for resources to fuel and to support other sectors in the economy. Many countries, therefore, have used agriculture as a source of employment, production, sustenance for growing cities, markets for manufactured goods, and food security. A successful agricultural base has shown itself to be the foundation for many successful and diversified economies. Appropriate environmental and resource managment policies are essential for continued agricultural development. A country with a balance between the prospects and obligations of the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are better placed to guarantee success. Despite the millions who still do not have enough food, we all need to be reminded of the relative success of balanced development policies. In this respect, we
would urge continuing work by the FAO on climate data geographic systems which impact on land use and crops, and more comprehensive coverage of environmental issues such as water policy and energy use.
Now the prospects for agriculture are less bright than before as global demand slows down, at least for unprocessed commodities, with the hope of creating population growth and the likelihood of reduced subsidies worldwide. Despite opposite trends in many developed countries, it is likely that the population directly dependent on agriculture will continue to grow. Unrestrained urbanization will bring inhuman living conditions and will create its own set of problems. These factors require continual monitoring, and the FAO study contained much valuable material.
Prime risks for the food-insecure accrue to those areas where population pressure on limited resources causes increased environmental strain and may result in a downward spiral to even more shortages and deprivations.
The regional differences are worrying.
In reviewing the many ingredients for growth, market forces will be a prime influence for the future. This growth will locate production in the place of its greatest comparative advantage. Liberalized agricultural trade holds out many long-term possibilities, and we must make sure that pressures on the environment are alleviated. Reduced support levels will remove the present incentives for high usage of agricultural chemicals, for example fertilizers and pesticides which can have adverse effects on the environment.
We would like to mention Canada's Green Plan addressing all significant sectors of the environment and encouraging coverage of similar national efforts in any updates of 2010.
Food insecurity and poverty are twin faces of misery. We look to organizations such as FAO to help countries develop approaches to combat these scourges that affect far too many people. Many countries which have invested in agricultural development have also laid the basis for relieving poverty. We believe that the role of women in agriculture in the Study requires more comprehensive treatment, particularly in respect of sustainable practices, innovation through new methods and as catalysts for channelling at community level. We support the comments of the delegate of the United States of America in this regard.
While we recognize the accomplishments of the Study, some of the assumptions require increasing scrutiny. Taken together, these assumptions could present too optimistic a scenario. Excluding China from the statistics limits the analysis, as this country represents roughly one-quarter of the world's population. Assumptions on bringing arable land into productive use depend on other factors of production such as moving persons, building roads and infrastructure and developing distribution facilities. These factors require further review.
Similarly, reliance on irrigation assumes plentiful supplies of water. While some of the disadvantages of irrigation may be overcome, the Study might still overestimate the potential of irrigation. We have already commented on the need for more coverage of national water policies. Land tenure arrangements would merit closer analysis, especially in questions of land titling for small farmers, small-farmer finance, the role of the government in market support, the availability of technology - especially
biotechnology - the efficacy of anti-poverty interventions, evidence of soil degradation and other factors.
More attention could have been given to the fundamental role of research, the CGIAR and international agricultural research centres as a complement to the private sector and its research capacity. We firmly believe there is urgent need for accelerated investment in agricultural research and technology aimed at yield enhancement and stabilization. Let us not forget there is in general a 20-year lag between research initiatives and significant production increases. In total, these potential constraints to agricultural development may play a more decisive role than is posited in the Study, and it would be worthwhile to have other, less optimistic, scenarios highlighted as well.
The Chapter on Environment and Development is crucial and attempts a series of balanced compromises between, for example, industrial countries with greater environmental sensitivity and developing countries, many with vital food security problems. Further balanced compromises are drawn between enhanced production from favourable areas versus fragile marginal areas where environmental concerns are paramount. Unfortunately, vision has not been used to relate national levels of food production and development to environmental hazards in that country generally and in specific terms - for example, coverage of soil erosion, water pollution and so on.
As presented to us and without such relationships attempted, excessive idealism is evident, particularly within the two-decade time span. The reality today, and probably in the near future, in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia is that food-deficit developing countries will have to give greater priority to food production and economic growth than to the various conservation methods advocated. Therefore, on this Chapter, we feel more realism is merited.
We are generally pleased with the Chapter on forestry and the summary of the global forestry problems. However, the information on such important issues as deforestation in the tropics, forest assets valuation, forestry and environment and production and trade in non-wood forest products is either weak, incomplete or absent. The reflection on future forest perspectives does not provide the in-depth qualitative strategic analysis that is expected and needed of the world's lead forest organization on global issues to guide actions at national and international levels.
The Study is an impressive and ambitious document. It has received the extensive review it merits. The number of comments we have received from Canadian Government Departments indicates the high degree of interest in this subject. We would like to meet the FAO Secretariat and pass over a summary of the technical comments we have received in a booklet form.
Gheorghe APOSTOIU (Roumanie): Monsieur le Président, puisque je prends la parole pour la première fois à la Commission, qu'il me soit permis de vous adresser les félicitations de la délégation roumaine.
Le document qui nous est présenté témoigne de la capacité de la FAO d'offrir à ses Membres des possibilités et des options pour un avenir, ô! combien inquiétant dans certaines régions.
Nous procédons à l'examen d'un document qui est une véritable doctrine de l'Organisation au niveau mondial, qui évalue les perspectives de
l'alimentation et de l'agriculture dans les vingt prochaines années; tâche d'autant plus difficile que chaque pays espère s'y voir réfléchi et, si possible, y entrevoir un avenir optimiste. Je me permettrai de considérer cette remarque comme plus que souhaitable: naturelle.
L'examen auquel nous nous attaquons est l'occasion de réaffirmer notre espoir dans l'Organisation. Pour ma part, j'estime que le document C 93/24, "Agriculture : horizon 2010", montre que ma modeste appréciation est justifiée.
La délégation de la Roumanie partage, dans l'ensemble, les concepts avancés par la FAO dans ce document-doctrine. Il souligne le maintien de l'universalité de l'Organisation, dans un climat de neutralité et au moyen d'une synergie nous permettant de viser haut. Le message de cette doctrine nous paraît clair et c'est probablement ici la partie la plus importante de notre optimisme.
J'aimerais en particulier féliciter le Directeur général de la FAO tant pour les consultations dont il s'est servi pour la préparation de ce document que pour le discernement dont il a fait preuve pour sa rédaction.
Toutefois, qu'il me soit permis de rappeler que les pays ex-socialistes, aujourd'hui dans une douloureuse période de transition, peuvent trouver peu de motifs à leurs espoirs. La présence de la FAO, d'après nous, est encore insuffisante dans cette région alors que nos besoins sont criants. Nos pays montrent clairement que le problème alimentaire ne se résume pas à la bonne ou à la mauvaise distribution de nos ressources. Le problème réside dans la pénurie de revenus. Nous sommes conscients du fait qu'il ne revient pas à la FAO de réclamer l'argent nécessaire à la restructuration de l'agriculture d'un pays. Mais en partant de la préoccupation générale, la FAO pourrait probablement trouver des solutions plus appropriées pour les pays en transition. C'est en tout cas l'un de nos désirs.
Nous attachons en ce sens beaucoup d'importance aux programmes de terrain et à l'assistance scientifique et technique de l'Organisation. Nous considérons, en outre, que le renforcement des bureaux régionaux de la FAO, voire la création de tels bureaux pour les pays en transition, est indispensable à une politique neutre et pragmatique de l'Organisation.
Je me suis permis de faire ces quelques remarques préliminaires et je vous remercie de votre attention.
Alejandro TRUEBA CARRANZA (México): La Delegación de México reconoce el valor técnico del documento presentado por la Secretaría para este tema, el cual contiene un pronóstico global para los próximos 15 años, fundamentalmente las áreas de especial importancia a nivel mundial, como son la seguridad alimentaria y la nutrición, la sostenibilidad de la agricultura, el desarrollo rural y el medio ambiente.
En el caso de mi país se examina en paralelo la expectativa del desarrollo rural de México con el resto del mundo, a efecto de poder incorporar los elementos de política necesarios para asegurar el mejor resultado en estos temas; más aún porque por primera vez se comienzan a diseñar políticas y a adecuar la legislación nacional, así como a contraer compromisos a largo plazo precisamente para el año 2010. Las políticas agropecuarias de México están planteadas para el mediano y largo plazo a través de un proceso de
conversión en la agricultura, en algunos cultivos y en algunas actividades, y el fortalecimiento de otras por su valor económico y estratégico.
Se prevé una disminución de la población dedicada a la producción agrícola en el mediano plazo, lo que conlleva la necesidad de incrementar su product ividad.
En la política agropecuaria mexicana se ha incorporado de manera definitiva el concepto de "desarrollo sustentable"; es decir, México realiza su mejor esfuerzo productivo sin comprometer los recursos naturales como el suelo y el agua, al que tienen derecho las generaciones futuras.
Esta estrategia se apoya en una política poblacional, que ya ha dado importantes resultados en el pasado inmediato. En el transcurso de los últimos diez años, la tasa de crecimiento poblacional bajó de un 3,6 por ciento anual a un dos por ciento anual.
Los planteamientos presentados en el documento C 93/24, tanto normativos como tecnológicos, son de validez si a estos planteamientos sumamos la voluntad política y una cooperación internacional eficiente; estaremos sentando las bases para un desarrollo equilibrado entre los recursos naturales de la tierra y sus habitantes.
Allm FAWZI (Indonesia): May I start my intervention by expressing our appreciation to the Secretariat for the excellent work they have done in preparing document C 93/24.
In my country, the priority development towards the year 2010, which will be under the Second Long-term Development Plan - that is, 1994 to 2019 is still economic development alongside human resource development. Our economic policy will continue to follow the three objetives of our development, namely, equity, growth and stability.
With regard to poverty alleviation in the First Long Term Development Plan, we have successfully decreased the number of people below the poverty line from 54 million to 27 million in 1991, or about 15 percent of our total population. Population growth in the same period decreased from 2.3 percent to 1.9 percent. In the Second Long Term Development Plan which will start next year my government has formulated a special programme on underdeveloped villages which will provide a special fund for poor rural areas to strengthen our former efforts in poverty alleviation.
We know that challenges and changes in the development of food in the coming 25 years differ compared to the situation and conditions in our First Long Term Development Plan. As income per caput increases, the direction of food consumption of the people will change. They are going to demand a multidiversity and better quality of food. This condition will support a policy reorientation from an emphasis on a rice economy to a diversified food economy. It will also change the orientation from quantity to quality and extend the distribution aspects from a logistic approach to a more efficient market mechanism.
In facing the uncertainty of the future, it is wise for us to learn from the past. In this connection I would like to support the proposal from the delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the preparation and publication "50 Years of FAO Activities, Failures and Successes" for the 50th Anniversary of FAO.
J.J. NEETESON (Netherlands): The Netherlands delegation very much appreciates the document Agriculture: Toward 2010. Its presentation now is indeed timely, since the document Agriculture: Toward 2000 was presented for the first time in 1985.
My statement will be brief. I do not want to repeat the facts and figures presented in this well-documented study.
When making longer-term projections, one has to agree on a set of pre-conditions. The outcome of the study directly depends on that. Therefore, we do not attach an absolute value to the figures resulting from the study. For us, the value of the study lies primarily on indicating the directions which the developments may take, particularly developments in population growth, growth in agriculture and food production and the number of people who suffer from hunger and malnutrition.
Developments in industrialized countries and the links with agriculture in developing countries are not fully taken into account in the study. Developments in the economies of industrialized countries do have a bearing on developing countries. I wonder whether the outcome would have been different if developments in industrialized countries had been taken more into account.
Fortunately, the study gives rise to some optimism, but also to real concern, especially for the long-term food security situation in food-deficit countries. It is our task to translate this concern into specific actions by FAO and by the countries concerned, developing and industrialized countries alike.
The challenge for us is to increase food production, especially in developing countries, for an ever-increasing world population, without damaging the environment. The concept of sustainable agriculture and rural development, initiated at the Den Bosch Conference, and subsequently developed by FAO and confirmed at UNCED, is a good basis for this. Local conditions, capacities, traditional skills and knowledge must be the starting point for any action in this respect.
The study highlights the important trade-offs between the various subsectors such as agriculture, forestry, livestock and the environment. The need for an integrated approach is, therefore, rightly stressed, such as in paragraphs 3.36 to 3.40, concerning the trade-offs between cereal production for feed for livestock and for direct human consumption.
The study does not present a scenario for future action. It presents policy options which need to be selected according to specific conditions prevailing in the various countries. One such specific condition is the serious risk for development and the environment due to continuing uncontrolled deforestration, which we sometimes seem to ignore.
Biotechnology could contribute significantly to development, specifically when it is connected to local conditions and local varieties. My question is whether development, or even a possible breakthrough in the field of biotechnology, have been sufficiently taken into account in the study. Could it lead to higher production increase than presently projected?
We attach great value to these types of studies. I take it that this is the second one in a series of Agriculture: Towards the Future. Updates or
complementary studies for the relevant parts only are necessary when conditions give rise for so doing. One such reason could be - and I am asking FAO whether it is prepared to consider it - the outcome of the Uruguay Round. Obviously, cooperation with other international organizations is necessary when doing so.
CHAIRMAN (Original language German): We have come to the end of today's speakers' list. In the course of the day several delegations have expressed wishes concerning the way in which our work for next week should be arranged, the point being that one or two experts will arrive later whereas certain experts have to leave earlier. I think perhaps you would agree that we should attempt to get by without any evening or night meetings. Perhaps I could make a suggestion of my own which I hope will meet the wishes of the individual delegations. On Monday morning we would go on with 6.3 on the agenda. Our first speaker on Monday morning would be the distinguished representative of Portugal. Once we have completed 6.3, might I suggest that we go on to item 8, Plan of Action. For Tuesday 16 November might I suggest that we go to item 7 and item 7.1, which includes the text of a resolution. I suggest that on Wednesday 17 November we continue with the discussion of item 7.2. There is also a resolution there, as you are aware. We could then have a discussion on the text of the three resolutions already announced, from Algeria, Netherlands and Iraq. Thursday and Friday would then be available for the adoption of the report.
That is my proposal. I hope it meets with your approval. Are there any objections to this? I see no objections and we may therefore take it that this proposal is accepted.
The meeting rose at 17.15 hours.
La séance est levée à 17 h 15.
Se levanta la sesión a las 17.15 horas.
