Augustyn WOS (Poland): The Polish delegation has studied the report Agriculture: Toward 2000 with the greatest attention. In our opinion, it makes a valuable contribution to international knowledge on the subject of agriculture, food economy and the prospects for the future development of global agricultural production and of international trade in agricultural products until the year 2000. We find this report one of the best produced by the FAO Secretariat for many years. I would like to congratulate the Secretariat for the work done. The methodology employed as well as the method of presentation of the research results deserve, in our opinion, the highest praise. We find of particular value the departure from the former extrapolation of trends, the results of which as a rule call for serious reservations, and the departure from the excessively optimistic views on the subject of future situation development. The realistic presentation of both the development of agricultural production and the situation concerning the international trade in food and agricultural products during the past quarter of a century constitute most valuable material, which may be used by the Governments of all countries, both developed and developing, when elaborating their own programmes of development of agriculture and determination of agricultural policiesc We find particularly valuable those statements in various parts of the Report which observe that the agricultural policy of a number of countries, both developed and developing, will have to be substantially altered and modified in the future if the securing of a sufficient volume of food for all mankind and the more rational utilization of resources on a global scale become targets universally accepted. In the long term the revision of agricultural policies oriented in the direction of securing potential possibilities of achieving comparative benefits as effects of expansion and facilitation of international trade ought to prove beneficial for all countries and should serve to lower the costs related to the realization of agricultural development programmes.
When considering the long term trends in the development of agricultural production, the Polish delegation would like to draw attention to the fact that increasingly larger areas of agricultural policy decisions throughout the world to a lesser and lesser degree may be shaped and determined by the respective Governments. We observe at the same time a parallel growth of the number and power of big international corporations, in particular corporations of a supra-state character. These are corporations of private capital that very effectively control major areas of agricultural production and international markets.
An example of this may be the seed production on the basis of modern technologies and especially using genetic engineering. The latter, as we all recognize, will be of decisive importance and impact for the coming progress and growth of agricultural production in the developing countries. This and other similar areas may be controlled only in a small way by the Governments of the particular countries. This means a great new problem area for FAO, as it transfers the activities of our organization from the sphere of governmental activities to non-governmental and supra-state relations and organizations that which, as one could expect, will be an extremely important issue of future development.
To find a way for FAO to effect these new areas of operations and activities is becoming a task of major importance and the Polish delegation would like to draw attention of all delegations to this issue.
The Polish delegation does not intend to undertake discussion of the forecasts included in the presented Report since only the future may show whether they are accurate not. We cannot however refrain from one remark concerning the group of European countries with a centrally-planned economy. We believe that the forecasts concerning this group of countries are rather pessimistic and assume a substantial scale of imports of grains also in the year 2000. In view of the profound changes taking place in the economic system of the group of countries in question, as well as in the agricultural policies and the system of price formations, we believe it fully feasible to achieve in principle full self-sufficiency in food and agricultural products by the European centrally .planned-economy continues in the timeframe discussed. There should take place on the other hand, a substantial and important increase in the imports of products from the tropical zone and of protein foodstuffs, the latter being necessary to conduct rational livestock breeding. As concerns the possibilities of Polish agriculture, we are rather optimistic. We have doubts, on the other hand, concerning the present state and future development of the industries producing inputs for farming.
Michael Joseph RYAN (Australia): I would like to make three main points under this item. The first relates to the main contributions of the report, which Australia believes provides a useful basis for the discussion of some of the major food and agricultural issues to be faced over the next decade. It focuses on the plight of the poor and of many developing countries, caused in part by the policies of developed countries.
There is a particular focus on resource and aid requirements as well as the need for protection cuts in developed countries, these being linked to an extent with the projection of demand and supply. We welcome that.
The second point is the reliability of the projections. To us they appear to be more realistically based than in the 1979 report, which projected increasing agricultural commodity prices to the year 2000, which was well off the mark, obviously. The current projections are more conservative for the rates of population and income growth. However, we believe that the report still relies heavily on trend extrapolations and 'expert' judgements. It does not explicitly include major macroeconomic, price and policy variables in the analysis, and has a weak feed livestock section.
The third area of comment for Australia is the recommendation for agricultural expansion and self-sufficiency in developing countries. The very high priorities accorded by the report to such policies is possibly inappropriate for many countries. They may have an effect of agriculture being overpromoted while better investment opportunities in other sectors are missed, thus lowering potential incomes, as well as food purchasing power and food security.
Finally, the recommendation that producer prices need not reflect world prices - page 17 - where the world marekt for that sector is subject to heavy export subsidies could have the effects of: 1) detracting from other FAO objectives of world trade and price stability; and 2) creating substantial new areas of assisted agriculture with the attendant supply-enhancing effects.
Shigeki YAMAMOTO (Japan): Japan should like first of all to commend the efforts of the Secretariat for having presented to us the revised "Agriculture Toward 2000" which encompasses a wide range of content. It is acceptable for us that the projection is based on the moderate economic growth, and the estimated annual growth of agriculture in developing countries, that is 3.0%, is deemed realistic. Consequently, this Report is of great utility value, for it will give an effective guiding index when examining the future agricultural policy of the world, especially developing countries.
However, we have not been informed as to what motivated this revision. Japan is of the view that the opinions of member countries should have been collected prior to such important work, and the Secretariat should have reflected those opinions in the Report.
Anyhow, in order to encourage effective use of the report, Japan would like to request the Secretariat newly to prepare a condensed version which is both concise and clear, taking into account the discussion here.
I should now like to make brief comments chapter by chapter.
As to chapter 7 for agricultural trade, the conclusion points out that effective regulation and discipline are required to reduce trade measures for agricultural products which cause the deterioration of the international market.
Japan's view on this matter is as follows: Policy for agricultural trade should be aimed so that, on a longer-term basis, the market principle can function effectively. Every country should undertake coordinated action in line with its responsibility toward the solution to problems, such as surplus supplies of agricultural products, increased spending of the agricultural budget and intensified competition for export. In doing so, however, may due consideration be given to various elements of agriculture, such as food supply, conservation of land and natural environment, which are not purely economic, as well as specific characteristics of agriculture which stem from the constraint related to land resources.
Chapter 11 touches on environmental problems. While I agree that agriculture and the environment are mutually complementary and dependent, I think that it is very important to develop farming systems which are in conformity with the environmental condition of each country, and to manage and operate them.
My country is of the view that, in assessing the world supply and demand of agricultural commodities, it is also important to take into consideration possible influences by decrease in forestry, progress of desertification, fluctuation of climate and others. Therefore, I consider further study on these unstable factors to be required.
N. MUKUTU (Zambia): The Secretariat have made a great effort in trying to predict what the state of food and agriculture will be in the year 2000 - about 15 years from now. That the first such forecast was made in 1979, barely five years ago, and yet was already moving off-target, only serves to show how difficult the task of predicting future trends can be. In their defence, the Secretariat state that they are now making a better forecast. One might agree with them only because they are now more pessimistic than in the 1979 forecast.
I want to commend the Secretariat, Dr Islam's team, for the painstaking thoroughness they have taken in order to try to arrive at realistic predictions. In our view, a sufficient sample of both developing and developed countries has been studied to give credibility to the predictions. A study of 94 developing countries, including China, and 34 developed countries, both in the free and centrally-planned economies, is ample evidence of the sample taken.
The Zambian delegation is also satisfied with the methodology of analysis used, as given at Appendix page A5.
The study does not seem to put sufficient emphasis on predictions as to the likely weather or climatic changes in the next fifteen years. We think a statement on this should have been made in view of the sensitivity of agricultural production to this factor. Only a short mention of the subject is made under environmental considerations.
It is our experience in our region that there may be some significant adverse climatic changes in the next fifteen years. In fact, we believe, that such a change began in 1978. We are being reliably informed that such changes may also be taking place in the northern hemisphere. It seems plausible to assume adverse weather conditions, when one takes into account the current depletion of the tropical rain forests - which you all know as the lungs of the world - the slow but sure depletion of the ozone layer which is introducing the glasshouse effect, and the likely possibility of more nuclear disasters.
Therefore, in our view, from climatic trends alone the predictions so far made are over optimistic. The likely climatic effect, however, may be to sharpen or widen regional abundancies and deficits, as some regions may have a more favourable climate, while others are suffering in the reverse way, so that aggregate world production could remain as per prediction but with huge variations in individual country or a regional production.
My delegation has studied the current and predicted data on Zambia. It appears to be correct, with modest increases in production over the next fifteen years or so. We believe that in the case of Zambia, the predictions were heavily influenced by historical trends. Good weather permitting, Zambia could perform at a much faster rate than is predicted. There is sufficient evidence to show that the Zambian population is now more geared towards farming than was the case twenty years ago. This is not only due to the fact that the government now provides better producer price incentives, among other important factors, but is due to the fact that there appears to be a learning, skill-acquiring period of some 20 to 30 years, after which people gather enough farming experience and courage to adopt farming. This pattern is very noticeable in Zambia. The largest grain-producing provinces are presently the provinces where agriculture was introduced earliest by European settler communities. The least grain producing provinces are the areas where there were no European settlers many years ago. As locals are opening up new farming areas in these provinces, it is now appearing that more production is increasingly being produced.
We are now all aware of, and have already addressed, the major policy measures which are necessary to increase individual country and, therefore, aggregate world food and agricultural production. This has been discussed in the preceding documents, International Agricultural Adjustment and WCARRD. These are the same measures which are required in the next decade and a half, that is policy reforms, access of the masses to land and other assets, people's participation at grass root level, increasing the role of women in agriculture, the encouragement of regional and international trade and the removal of both formal and informal tariffs to encourage the advantages of the principles of comparative advantage.
Other important factors in the next fifteen years include the effective transfer of technology and the creation of new real capital in-flows into the South, from the North. My delegation agrees with the notion in the study that heavy investment will be required by developing countries to open up new land, and to introduce irrigation. For this to be achieved, there will be a need for the movement of capital investment from the North.
I want to be bold enough to say that in the next fifteen years the country that will implement the WCARRD Resolutions will show the greatest development and growth rates with equity. WCARRD was really the blueprint for international agricultural development.
The nightmare and the ogre that haunts food and agricultural development in the future are the trade barriers, the protectionist attitudes of the North, not only to goods from developing countries, but even to goods amongst themselves. As we all know, this leads to shrinking international trade through beggar-my-neighbour-policies. The shrinking of international trade continues and this shrinking continues to increase in each country and the economies get smaller and smaller until recessions set in. These recessions have deleterious effects on all countries, particularly on the least developed countries and the poorest of the poor, who are mostly women.
As we look to the future, let us all think about our planet - sometimes called the vanishing earth because of our own mischief. Let us protect it like a milk cow in India, so that it continues to feed us, give us manure for crops and plaster for decorating our houses.
Let us ail work as one race. with a common purpose to feed ourselves and to live comfortably? Or is it still the law of the jungle? I suppose not.
Luka RADOJICIC (Yugoslavia):" The revised study shows substancial progress as regards nutrition and moderate progress in the production sector of developing countries, along with great disparities among countries and continents. In the last 25 years developing countries recorded a production growth rate of 3.2 percent, with the growth rate in this decade being higher than in the previous one. The countries of Asia, primarily the People's Republic of China and then India, accounted for the major portion of this increase.
The crisis in Africa, however, has deteriorated. The global crisis has led to a slow down in the growth of production in Latin America and the Middle East. In the OECD countries too, the growth rate is going down.
The global recession has greatly reduced the rate of growth of international trade in agricultural products and resulted in a further growth of protectionism in the developed part of the world. In trade, the world is faced with a growing excess of supply. That is a grave structural problem which calls for readjustments without precedent.
The existing unfavourable trends within the external component of agricultural development in the countries - resources, indebtedness, protectionism, etc. - when compared with the internationally agreed objectives, are not being overcome fast enough.
The Yugoslav delegation expresses its appreciation to FAO for the quality of the study, and on the whole it supports its conclusions and recommendations. I should like to stress in particular our agreement with the orientation focus on the most acute issues in the future.
PRESIDENTE: Deseo aclarar que inmediatamente después de terminar el tema de "Agricultura 2000" se discutirán dos Resoluciones referentes a la mujer. La primera de ellas es: "Actividades de la FAO relativas a la integración de la mujer en el desarrollo", y la segunda "Participación de. la mujer en el desarrollo rural". Estos dos proyectos de Resolución los tienen ustedes en el documento LIM/39, y está a disposición de todos los Delegados en todos los casilleros. Les ruego que, si es posible, los hayan leído primero, los conozcan y los hayan estudiado para poder pasar a la discusión de estas dos Resoluciones una vez terminado el tema "Agricultura: Horizonte 2000".
John Redman GOLDSACK (United Kingdom): We should like to thank the Secretariat for the update to the original of "Agriculture: Toward 2000" which now forms the version before us today. We find much in the report with which we can agree, and in this intervention we shall, bearing in mind the time constraint, touch on only three of the broad topics covered.
Environmental issues are dealt with in Chapters 1 and 11, and we welcome FAO's focus on environmental aspects of agricultural development, and the recognition of the need to address environmental issues as an integral component of agricultural development strategy.
We congratulate FAO on identifying the major global, national and local environmental issues relating to agricultural production potential and agricultural practice. We would encourage FAO to continue its efforts towards a better, more scientific understanding of the relationship between agricultural activity and environmental degradation and towards using this knowledge to improve environmental management in the agriculture sector.
We support the view that long-term benefits from environmentally benign behaviour must be brought into the cost-benefit equations in agricultural development activities in order to facilitate more sustainable use of natural resources.
We agree with the overall environmental objectives and the general thrust of the document, but do not necessarily concur with every point of detail. There are issues which we would need to consider in greater detail before offering concurrence, such as the relative importance of the factors leading to environmental problems in agricultural systems and the order in which to tackle best the crucial need for greater agricultural production and still protect the environment - that is, to first make more efficient use of land currently being used for agriculture, - before opening up new lands. Chapter 11 hardly discusses the beneficial environmental impact of improved food storage technology and the way in which better food storage can create less demand for additional land to reduce the need to overexploit existing land.
Chapter 4, on sustainable growth in production, reviews at some length the probable sources of the increased agricultural productivity projected in Chapter 3. The projections are no doubt realistic in terms of anticipated demand but they appear to us over-ambitious in relation to realistic production increases likely to be achieved in the context of the physical and human resources available. Many data are presented to support a range of conclusions, but there is no clear and concise summary of conclusions, which is required with a document as lengthy and complex as this.
However, the general conclusions are sensible and the major important constraints confronting increased agricultural production have been identified, but few fresh ideas are generated. The main focus is. on sources of increased crop and livestock production, with some reference to other essential
requirements such as off-farm inputs, draught power, investment requirements, research and policy issues, etc. The document, we feel, is a little unbalanced in that inadequate attention has been paid to the problems of sustaining either present or probable future incremental production, and little reference is made to the serious environmental problems associated with de-afforestation for agricultural purposes. We think these are important weaknesses, and other omissions are the lack of discussion on training, manpower and institutional requirements to achieve the projected growth rates.
We find that Chapter 7 on issues of international trade and adjustment gives a good analysis of the current tensions in agricultural trade and their causes. We particularly welcome the emphasis on domestic policy reform and the recognition that "greater market orientation in world agriculture" is the "ultimate goal"
The United Kingdom strongly supports the objectives for agricultural reform set out in the GATT Ministerial Declaration of September 1986 and the OEGD Ministerial Council communique of May 1987. All developed countries, including net importers, must play their part in securing a concerted reduction in agricultural support, implemented in a balanced manner.
The analysis in the chapter shows that most developing countries have a keen interest in the success of these negotiations. Without reform, trade conflicts will worsen and harm developing country interests. Trade liberalization may increase import costs for temperate foodstuffs for some developing countries, but overall, taking economy-wide effects into account, developing countries stand to benefit, in some cases substantially.
Reform of developed countries' agricultural policies will also make an important contribution towards reducing the volatility of commodity prices on world markets. Given the limited success of international commodity agreements, the United Kingdom believes market intervention to support commodity prices is not a long-term answer. The IMF's Compensatory Financing Facility, which is shortly to be reviewed, and the European Community's STABEX scheme provide adequate facilities for dealing with temporary shortfalls in export earnings.
Arif H. UGUR (Turkey): I should like to thank the Secretariat for the interesting report C 87/27, "Agriculture: Toward 2000", gives a global assessment of possible future world and detailed projections for country groups and individual countries. This report will constitute a valuable document which will be referred to by policy analysts and planners.
The essential prerequisite to agricultural forecasting and planning is the availability of adequate basic agricultural statistics. The basic statistics needed for forecasting and planning include the number and distribution of farms, size and tenure of farms, land use and land classification, area irrigated and types of irrigation, crop acreages and production, livestock numbers and livestock products, poultry and fishery production, types of forests and forestry products, farm labour and farm employment, quantity and quality of farm inputs, prices of farm inputs and outputs, public and private infrastructure, and domestic and foreign demand for farm products. These basic statistics are for forecasting, planning and assessment of planned development. The development programmes, such as land reform, land development, distribution of farm inputs and farm mechanization cannot be planned with accuracy and executed with confidence unless reliable data are available.
The limited data available constitutes a serious handicap to most of the developing countries in the formulation of their policies and development plans. The paucity of data impedes the use of planning techniques and analytical tools, thereby adversely affecting allocation of scare resources. Faulty information produces faulty analysis, which leads to faulty answers. The result is usually a misdirected and misplaced development effort. Lack of reliable data also does not permit accurate measurements of improvements.
In most countries agricultural data are provided by systems of current agricultural statistics and periodic agricultural censuses. The scope of current agricultural studies is limited to the collection of information on a few items, such as acreage and production of crops and crops forecasts. The method used for estimating crop yields relies mostly on estimation by eye and personnal judgement.
In this situation, the major weaknesses of this study C 87/27 might, I presume, be the statistical data base which is provided by the developing countries and/or estimates made by FAO for the countries which failed to make data available. Nevertheless, this study will provide a broad picture of the long term to planners and policy makers, who always need to compare their projections with the projections made by the international organizations for other countries where the situation is judged to be similar.
In some cases, on approach in planning is simply to borrow some elasticity coefficients of other countries judged to be similar in their standards of living and consumption patterns. These types of studies which indicate a relatively good picture of international trade are more valuable for planners in arriving at export/import projections.
Chapter 8 of document C 87/27 discusses macroeconomic policies, structural adjustment and agriculture, which are inter-related. Like many developing countries Turkey has introduced a structural adjustment programme in the economy. This structural adjustment programme, introduced at the beginning of 1980 in Turkey, comprised a wide range of policy reforms aimed at stablilizing the economy while encouraging export promotion, an enhanced role for the private sector, especially in manufacturing, and increased reliance on market forces.
The economic recovery programme has been furthered intensified since 1984, with greater emphasis on the real exchange rates, rapid import liberalization, the improvement of domestic resource utilization, subsidy reduction and new taxes, such as value-added tax. In particular, the Government has aimed at reducing public expenditure growth and has given priority to infrastructure sectors for public investment outlets.
The emphasis in agriculture has shifted towards irrigation and agricultural services which will have the largest on sectoral productivity growth.
As indicated in the report, there might be a danger of withdrawal of the public sector, which may lead to a collapse of the particular function in some developing countries. This report pronounces very clearly that the change over from the public to the private sector must therefore be a phased one and assistance must be given to enable the private sector to become established and effective.
This is a realistic appraisal of what may happen if the right policies are not followed. This transitional issue should be recognized by the world credit organizations in imposing policy issues on the developing countries.
I would like to say a few words about Chapter 11 dealing with environmental problems caused mainly by pollution, degradation, deforestation and desertification. In the developing countries especially, natural resource systems are being increasingly depleted, soil is being eroded, forests eliminated, grassland overgrazed. Much higher priority has to be given to environmental protection which is a hard and expensive task for the developing countries.
As indicated in the Report, the population growth rate is still a major issue in solving problems, including environmental problems. If the population growth continues at the same rate, there could be nothing left for the next generations.
Every year more than 11 million hectares of forest are cleared for other uses, and in most developing countries deforestation is accelerating. In addition to the efforts made by developing countries, if every person in the developed world used one less tissues per day this would help to alleviate the problem.
In conclusion, I propose that this study should be renewed every five years on a regional basis rather than global. This would help improve the quality and usefulness of the study.
WU TIANXI (China): We did not receive the English version of document C 87/27 until shortly before we came to Rome. Now we can only make some preliminary comments on this paper as we did have time to study it carefully.
We are pleased to note that the FAO Secretariat, taking into account the suggestions made by many delegations at the 22nd Session of the Conference, has made important revisions and additions to this study. Comparing the revised version with the previous one we find three important changes. First, the revised version covers a wider geographical area. It has incorporated the data on four developing countries including China and outlined the trends of agricultural development in the developing countries of different categories.
In addition, its Third Chapter describes the trends of agricultural development in the developed countries, thus taking world agricultural issues from the macroscopic point of view of the world economy which is closely related to agriculture. Secondly, in view of the practical needs for agricultural development, the revised version .has made corresponding adjustments to its coverage.
It focuses on the development of production. Chapters 4 and 5 contain intensified studies on the growth of agricultural production. Two additional chapters are devoted to forestry and fishery which distinguish them from agriculture. There are also descriptions regarding debt, pricing policies and other problems facing many developing countries. Coverage of the complex development issues on which consensus is difficult to reach, for instance distribution and other issues having less impact for the future, for instance energy, has been adjusted or in some cases reduced. This conforms with the reality and development trend. These changes have made the study more compact, concise and meet the needs of future development.
Thirdly, the study gives additional descriptions to the two major problems of poverty and environment in the current world agricultural development. This will help us take a more comprehensive view on the favourable and unfavourable factors for agricultural development and adopt more appropriate measures to guide its development. On the whole, we think the revised study is a substantial improvement over the previous version and provides useful reference as it covers more extensive areas and provides valuable information, and the proposals contained therein are practical.
We have noted with interest that the revised study gives priority to the development of agricultural technology and a whole chapter is devoted to this issue. Inter alia, it stresses the important role that biotechnology can play in future agricultural development. This is highly necessary. However, we think that while emphasizing the role of biotechnology in increasing agricultural productivity, attention should also be paid to the extension of applied technology and training of technical staff. This will have practical significance for the promotion of agricultural development in the developing countries.
The revised study gives special coverage to poverty and environmental problems. It is apparent that the elimination of poverty is closely related to economic development. In the rural areas of many developing countries, a large number of people are afflicted by the shortage of production means, under-employment, low living standards and inadequate education. All this seriously hinders the economic development of these countries. Therefore, the eradication of poverty is a prerequisite for economic take-off. The study analyzes the relationship between poverty and development, summarises successful experience of the developing countries in their effort to get rid of poverty, and proposes a series of policy measures. These can serve as valuable reference. The revised study also describes the interaction of the environment and agricultural development. At the same time, it rightly points out various environmental problems faced by developed and developing countries in the field of agriculture. We agree to the views expressed therein. I will refrain from elaborating our views in this connection as they were already stated by the Chinese delegation during the discussion on the food and agricultural situation a few days ago.
We appreciate the sustained efforts made by the FAO Secretariat in identifying appropriate policies and technology in light of the actual situation of the world agricultural development. We shall further study the text and try to find useful reference for our own study on the prospects of China's agriculture by the year 2000.
Fritz-Otto HAASE (Germany, Federal Republic of) (original language German): The FAO Secretariat has, in presenting the revised version of Agriculture: Toward 2000, presented a study of which it can be proud and, which warrants our thanks. These thanks are expressed in particular to Dr Islam and his staff.
After a first reading of the Study we have the impression that the Secretariat has proceeded both methodically and pragmatically and it has adopted realistic assumptions which have led to plausible conclusions. The experience with the preceding study has been used very advantageously and it has not proved in any way a disadvantage that the projections are not based on a comprehensive, formalized, econometric model which, so far as the developing countries are concerned, would in any case in part have to be based on very unreliable data. The delegate of Turkey has just referred to this problem.
We also welcome the fact that the revised version is based on overall economic growth rates which from today's point of view are feasible. Hovever, they seem to be nudging the upper limit of a conceivable growth rate band width. Similarly, the assumption regarding changes in the agricultural policies of the developed market economies seem sensible because there exists general agreement that the agricultureal surplus production must be reduced, even though the question Is still largely open as to how this should be undertaken.
It is also to be noted that with the inclusion of the People's Republic of China the study has gained in relevance and applicability.
Permit me now to make a few comments and to voice a few questions. The Study arrives at an on the whole positive development of the world food situation. The production levels projected for developing countries, however, require very consideralbe investment and inputs and the question arises as to how, for example in Africa south of the Sahara, these can be financed and whether, a possible review of this problem has led to a revision of the projections.
No account appears to have been taken of the problem of a possible increase in energy costs by the year 2000, nor what the consequences of these might be on the one hand on further economic growth and on the other hand on levels of demand for agricultural products to used for industrial-technological and energy purposes.
In the Study, reference is also made to the need to improve the method for estimating the future feed grains requirements I think we must realize that this gives rise to a very considerable measure of uncertainty in the projections for feed grain requirements and other feedstuffs also in the European centrally planned economies and the developed market economies.
The projections for demand for meat and dairy products in the developed market economies are somewhat low with per caputconsumption growth rates of some 0.1 percent per annum. However, even if demand were to rise somewhat faster, this would not affect the need to slow down growth in production.
The statement made by the International wheat Council in 1983 in its "Longer Term Outlook for Grains" is generally applicable to agricultural products. The statement says that provided adequate prices are available, the production potential is such that even in the year 2000 any conceivable increase in effective import could be met.
As in the previous study, this Study will be very much welcomed by an international public and in this connection my delegation suggests that thought be given to giving wide circulation to the report by publishing it, perhaps after further editing and abridging. Indeed, if the Organization is interested in such a publication, my country is thinking of undertaking the publication of the study in a German language version.
Yiadom K. ATTA-KONADU (Ghana): I think the Secretariat has done yeomen's work in putting together an array of factors that affect the supply and demand for agricultural and food products - factors we have to deal with in our attempt to achieve global food security by year 2000. The complexity and inter-action of these factors, even at the national level, present great difficulties. At the global level attempts to vigorously handle them for extrapolation purposes become almost impossible and may defy the use of the best known methodological techniques.
The factors associated with the development of historic trends are themselves very complex, namely, the rise in effective demand, the overall world economic environment, international trade, dynamics of policy attitudes in different countries, and patterns of technology and their delivery systems, among others. However, the Secretariat has almost covered all of these major areas of concern and has presented a clear and concise story in document C 87/27. The story is simply that the attain-ment of global food security by the year 2000 may prove illusive unless the factors that influence historical past trends are carefully studied, applied and modified where possible, so that the prospects of achieving the ultimate objective, that is food security, can be enhanced. I thank the Secretariat for the good work they have done.
Every line of the over 263-page compendium prepared by the Secretariat is important. The issues raised are many, not to mention their complexity. Time constraint does not permit me to go into detail, so I shall only single out a few of the issues for emphasis.
Attempts to provide food for over one billion more people by the year 2000 have food security implications. The question then is: how do we ensure that all people have access at all times to enough food to achieve a healthy life by the year 2000? In sub-Saharan Africa a higher degree of food self-sufficiency is required to achieve this objective. The next question we have to ask is: what should be the process? Our contention, as we have already emphasized in a previous statement, is that we have to resort to setting up plans or have to make use of food strategies - food strategies which, in the 1970s, became an article of faith but which now seem to have been put into cold storage. We feel that food strategies will direct us as to what to do with both the demand and supply side of the food balance equation. In this role, food strategies will assure the coherence of diverse technical improvements, investment in agriculture, and other factors affecting the food sector by: one, establishing a framework for food production and consumption objectives; two, specifying within-this framework short to medium-term programmes and projects; and also providing a mechanism for a more effective implementation of them. In addition, my delegation feels that food strategies would provide a framework for policy reforms and for consistent and sustained donor assistance which is needed to achieve food security by the year 2000.
From a policy point of view, we feel that price and marketing policies are very relevant and at the heart of food strategy. Therefore, there is a need to address these. We need a policy mix of price, marketing, production and other factors that affect food security. As the document has also emphasized, there is a need for price policy instruments to be used, but the question is what is the scope of price policy instruments relative to non-price policy instruments, such as extension services, transportation, storage, participation of women and group action in the form of cooper-atives in achieving food security?
Of all the problems facing the sub-Saharan countries none is so easily apparent, none so pervasive, as that of inflation. This has been caused by a crisis in the external economic environment, by high population growth rates, slow growth of per capita incomes, rising urbanization and uncoordinated food production and distribution systems. Here I should like to emphasize the marketing issue.
In attempting to rehabilitate the economies of sub-Saharan countries and make them self-sufficient by the year 2000, we should aim at inter-related market reforms that will ensure enhanced vertical coordination in the production and .distribution systems, and thus stimulate economic growth of the relevant countries. There is a need toincrease the flow of resources into building infrastructures such as storage, processing, transportation, market information, and distribution. It is our contention that reforms can play an active role in the economic rehabilitiation of sub-Saharan countries by the year 2000 by changing demand and cost functions in both agriculture and manufacturing in a way favourable to expansion of general economic activities.
Key areas of priority investment in agriculture are also needed. I will just mention them here as there is not time to go into them. These are: the development of traditional farms to ensure increased productivity of small farmers; selective mechanization in view of acute structural labour shortages; small-scale cost-effective irrigation to help reduce the impact of drought; action orientated research focusing on greater yields and cropping intensities, and using the benefits of genetic research for higher output; improved management of farmers' services and inputs; and special measures for women and the landless poor.
Finally, to us in the sub-Saharan region the document before us carries the same message as the FAO document "Agriculture: The next 25 years". We feel that the two documents should be read together because they emphasize similar issues and seem to come to the same conclusions. The document "Agriculture: The next 25 years" has identified areas of emphasis which are also relevant here.
First, the trends that have caused the current food crisis in Africa have to be reversed to forestall unpredictable consequences within and outside Africa. Secondly, on the whole Africa has the potential to produce more food and agricultural products. In fact, an earlier FAO document on population supporting capacities of African countries had indicated that Africa, on the whole, has enough land for food self-sufficiency up to the year 2000. Indeed, even with the use of low level technology and inputs, the combined production of all 51 African countries could feed three times the present population. Thirdly, there is a need to adopt practical measures to mobilize and conserve Africa's physical infrastructure, land and water. Fourthly, these measures are to be complemented by others that address the four important "i's" - incentives, inputs, institutions and infrastructure. Fifthly, these measures must operate within a framework which will support sustainable growth of the sector. The framework prescribes practical structural adjustment reforms that should be put in place. We in Ghana since 1983 have made positive attempts in restructuring our economy to make far-reaching reforms which are going a long way to transform our economy. Since the introduction of these reforms positive results have been achieved in responding to them, and it is our contention that with more emphasis on them, or with more resources, including financial resources flowing into the agricultural sector, Ghana for its part will contribute its quota in achieving global food security by the year 2000.
Petrus A.L. DE RIJK (Netherlands): The document under discussion represents a global assessment of possible future world and country group production, trade and nutrition. This kind of prospective study is, in the opinion of our delegation, an important activity on which FAO rightfully embarks with a certain regularity. We refer to the recent Agricultural Commodity Projections for 1990, the AT 2000 study of 1979 and the Land, Food and People Study.
It is evident that projections of future developments are of crucial importance in order to identify and quantify problems ahead, a prerequisite for adequate policy design.
We will embark on four themes in relation to this valuable study, namely methodology, assumptions, results and conclusions and key-issues.
We note that the document is rather different from its predecessors, the former AT 2000 study and the Provisional Indicative World Plan for Agricultural Development of 1969. These earlier studies were focused on assessing the requirements to arrive at higher rates of growth for agricultural sector at the global level. The AT 2000 study of 1979 concerned the aims put forward in the UN third International Development Strategy, reflecting the aspirations of the New International Economic Order. But also trend values were projected. In the new AT 2000 study the aim is to arrive at realistic estimates of future developments. The keyword is now adjustment. This reflects itself even in the methodology. In fact the projections are not merely the results of past trends. The continuation into the future of those past trends would in many instances exacerbate present problems and disparities or imply unrealistic outcomes. Therefore the study consists of reasoned outcomes of the future. While we appreciate this approach, we would however have liked more background on how this reasoning was done. One of the trends that is considered unrealistic is the continuing growth of production in sub-Saharan Africa well below that of population. This would imply rapid growth of import requirements, that would - according to the document - be beyond what is probably feasible from the financial and infrastructural standpoints. Another reason put forward is that per caput consumption levels would not be maintained even at very low levels, which means that famine conditions would become more widespread and endemic. Based on these considerations and with reference to FAO's study on Africa a "reasoned" expected growth of agricultural production of 3.4% per year for the period 1985-2000 is presented for Africa. This is a huge increase as compared with the period 1960-1985, which was 2 percent, and it is also substantially higher that the pre-drought growth rate of 2.8%. Our delegation would have liked to see in this document a clear analysis of the conditions required and the assumption made to arrive at the quantum leap in growth for the food and agricultural sector for this most problematic region.
In this connection we would like to point out that this optimism concerning the rate of growth of agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa does not seem in line with FAO's agricultural commodity projection to 1990, issued last year. The growth of the crucial cereals sector, for example, for the period 1980-1990 was still estimated at only 2%.
The reliability of the projections depends on the validity of the assumptions. These assumptions are not systematically listed in the document, but we recall especially: firstly, the objective of self-sufficiency for all products in deficit in all developing countries; secondly, a moderate growth in the national income; thirdly, little progress concerning the liberalization of trade in agricultural products; and fourthly, no change in the income distribution within countries.
These assumptions deserve some comments. As to the objective of self-sufficiency for all products for all developing countries, the question is prompted to what extent this is in conformity with the principle of comparative advantages. It seems to us that an increase in self-sufficiency with little regard for production costs is not always an adequate policy. It could also conflict in some cases with the process of structural adjustments that is of great importance in several countries.
The assumption of little or no progress on liberalization of trade in agricultural products and on more even income distribution are remarkable because the document stresses repeatedly the importance of both. In our opinion it would have been very useful to include in the document results on calculations concerning the impact of at least a moderate progress in both areas. The same holds for an alternative assumption concerning economic growth. Such alternative scenarios would give a indication of the sensibility of the quantitative results that are presented in the document as the most likely outcome in the year 2000. This is most important because experience has shown that the figures resulting from such projections tend to start living their own lives.
Of the quantitativeresults of the projections the following ones struck us in particular and have policy implications: firstly, the fact that the number of undernourished people still increases, albeit slightly, from 1985 to 2000. In spite of a decrease in the relative number, this means that the hunger problem will not be overcome until a considerable number of years into the twenty-first century; secondly, the fact that in the period 1985 to 2000 the number of people affected by undernutrition will decrease in Asia 20% but increase in Africa with almost a third. At the same time the relative number of undernourished people will be more than twice as high in Africa as in Asia. These projections confirm the definite shift in magnitude of the hunger problem from Asia to Africa; thirdly, the fact that the net cereals deficit for sub-Sahara Africa would increase from 9 million tons in 1985 to 17 million tons in 2000, while the overall economic and balance of payments prospects are unfavourable. This means that food aid would have to play an even increasing role in this region in order to ensure that the number of undernourished people does not increase more than anticipated; fourthly, for the developed market economies as a whole the most important result of the projections is the inevitability of a long-term reduction in the rate of growth of aricultural output. The decrease in growth would be applicable to all products and with a reduction of 60%, be strongest for cereals. This means that even after the economic recession supply will tend to exceed demand. Consequently, world market prices might be under continuous pressure.
Among the results of the quantitative analysis we have missed one important element. That is an updating of the food aid requirements. In this connection we would like to point out that in the document on International Agricultural Adjustment the need for a periodical review of estimates of food aid requirements is urged.
On maybe the most important data, those concerning the estimates on the number of undernourished people, we would like to point out that the World Bank has also made estimates concerning undernourishment published in their Poverty and Hunger Report. Those estimates are substantially different from those by FAO. We would like to ask the Secretariat if FAO has taken any initiative to harmonize these estimates.
One of the questions that evidently comes up is what the value added is of this document as compared with the former AT 2000 study of 1979. In other words, where do both studies differ? We would like to touch on a few points only.
One remarkable difference is that although the projected growth rate of national income of developing countries was considerably higher in the trend projection of the former study, especially for Africa, the projected growth rate of the agricultural sector is slightly higher in the present study. Maybe the Secretariat could explain this. Interestingly enough, it appears that estimates of the total number of undernourished people in the year 2000 in the former study are rather similar with the new projections. But the number of undernourished people in the various regions is estimated rather differently now. For Asia about 30% less, but for Africa 30%, and for Latin America remarkably, almost 100% more than in the former study.
Following the results of the projections in the document a number of key issues are identified which must be tackled in order to ensure an adequate development of food and agriculture in developing countries. They also include measures to be taken in order to eliminate the hunger problem. We agree with the nature of the key issues identified and we would like to add that their relevance is different from region to region and even from country to country.
The firstkey issue is structural adjustment. Many developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America have to adjust first of all their sector priorities from industry to agriculture. Moreover, macro-economic policies especially in relation to exchange rates and taxes have to be modified. In the agricultural sector itself changes in the price policy and a more limited role of the public sector are required. In our opinion FAO should get more involved in the determination of policy decisions to be taken in the framework of structural adjustment, as well as in the consequences for food security. We also suggest that the Committee on World Food Security prepares a document dealing with the implications of structural adjustment on food security.
The secondkey-issue is trade liberalisation. As is illustrated in the document, the impact of liberalisation of trade in agricultural products is very positive for those developing countries that are net exporters, as world market prices would rise. For net importing countries the short-term effects are negative but in the long run an increase in production might result if producers were sufficiently protected. As the results of past investigations on trade liberalisation are sometimes controversial - we refer to the recent World Bank and IIASA studies -our delegation encourages FAO to continue its work in this area focusing on the position of the importing countries and especially the poorest category.
The thirdkey issue determining growth in the agricultural sector also has to do with an improved balance of payments, namely, external financing and aid. In this connection reference should be made to the recent study of IIASA, called Hunger Amidst Abundance, in which the impact of additional capital aid and the resulting increase in economic growth on alleviation of hunger is estimated for the year 2000.
The fourthkey issue is equity. As is stated in para 1.96, agricultural growth not always, although mostly, lessens rural poverty. Growth hardly trickles down if there is a very unequal distribution of land and other resources, as is the case in several countries in Asia and Latin America. In those cases land redistribution and tenancy reforms are the most fundamental of anti-poverty measures together with improved access to agricultural services. Another way of improving incomes to the poor and undernourished is by means of rural work programmes. Finally there is the possibility of food distribution schemes in order to eliminate hunger.
A fifthkey issue is not mentioned as such in the document. It is a complex issue, as is illustrated in Box 3.1. But it is undeniable that the food availability per caputis determined by the growth in food production as well as in population growth. In Table 3.6 the negative impact of the high and still increasing birth rate in sub-Saharan Africa is strikingly shown. Although the highest growth rate in agriculture is projected (3.4%) this region has by far the lowest production per caput.
A lastkey-issue is biotechnoogy and is valid for all developing countries. It is of importance in our opinion that they have access to the expected first developments in the field of biotechnology. Otherwise, the possibility exists that in the longer run they might lose the comparative advantages they have in the production of certain agricultural commodities.
My last issue is concerned with the environment, but in view of the time, we will not elaborate on this. Our concerns are, however, expressed in a draft resolution proposed with Canada and Norway. Finally, we propose that this useful study have a follow-up in order to make it even more valuable. This elaboration should focus on the hunger problem and include lessons to be drawn from, first, a change in the basic assumption such as economic growth and income distribution; second, comparison of the results of this study with the former AT 2000 study; and, third, comparison of the results of this study with projections for the year 2000 by other organizations such as IFPRI, World Bank and IIASA, as well as ideas put forward in those studies for reduction of the hunger problem. In our opinion, it should also include updated estimates of food aid requirements. If time is permitted, we suggest that this elaboration could be presented as a paper to the Committee on World Food Security.
Chairat SIRIVAT (Thailand)s My delegation would like to express our deep appreciation of the Secretary's excellent document, C 87/27. The Thai delegation would like to comment on document C 87/27 first, paragraph 1.1. The study covers 94 developing countries and accounts for only two percent of the population of developing countries. Therefore, my delegation feels that it would be better to cover more countries and take an example of population in developing countries, rather than to take a number of countries, in order to produce accurate results. The Report seems to be based upon the assumption of high economic growth rates in the past which seem to be optimistic. It is indicated in paragraph 1.4 that the growth rate of developing countries during 1980-86 was low, 3.5 percent in developing countries, or 2.2 percent excluding China; and 2.5 percent in developed countries.
My delegation believes that this situation depends upon the impact of subsidies, trade-distorting measures, tariff and non-tariff barriers, which apply to many countries, especially developed countries. The numeration cannot show how it is different on an economic development level between developing countries in the different regions of the world.
Mr Chairman, I should like to draw your attention to the fact that the percentage of growth rate from countries in Asia and the Pacific region is certainly different from Latin America and Africa. Thus, the certain level of actual development in this region also makes a more significant difference. Therefore, my delegation proposes that certain aspects of growth rate among the different regions should take into account the analysis of a better outcome.
Second, in paragraph 1.21 of Document C 87/27 it says that instability, debt, recession, fluctuations in exchange rates, and good commodity prices affect trade in agriculture. My delegation agrees with this analysis. Furthermore, my delegation believes that the Multilateral Trade Negotiations and the GATT negotiations will also bring a fruitful result to enhance the International Commodity Agreement both in developed and developing countries, because they relate to the international cooperation efforts to eliminate protectionist policies, trade-distorting measures, and promote full liberalisation on trade in agriculture concerning world food security promotion.
Third, in paragraph 1.38 the regional production rates in developing countries do not include the Central and South African economy and do not show how it is predicted. My delegation, therefore, is not clear on this matter. However, paragraph 1.49 shows that the agricultural production of developed market economies will slowly expand. In contrast, agricultural exporting developed contries have a surplus. It seems that this situation has a negative effect for the exporting developing countries. So my delegation feels concerned about this outcome.
Paragraph 1.69 shows that trade conflicts become evident in industrialised countries which apply subsidised measures to maintain the present exports. At the same time, it is hard for developing countries to produce more competitive agricultural products at the low price of their farmers. In addition, the phenomenon causes more and more trade conflicts between developed countries and developing countries. My delegation would like to draw your attention to the role of GATT and the Multilateral Trade Negotiations to liberalise trade among nations and also call for a conference or meeting between developed and developing countries.
In this connection, Thailand is also one of the members of the Cairns Group which comprises 14 members whose fundamental aim is to achieve fully-liberalised trade in agriculture, to eliminate distorted agricultural policies, and to bind the necessary undertakings under GATT rules and disciplines. The Cairns Group requests the maintenance of the application of the principle of differential and more favourable treatment for developing countries, as embodied in GATT, as well as in the Punta del Este Declaration of the Uruguay Round. We also call for the improvement of market access or a more open market in developed countries; we also call for prohibitive tariff and non-tariff barriers, subsidies, government-support measures, sanitary and phyto-sanitary measurement barriers. We welcome the new initiative of the United States' proposal to phase out agricultural subsidies, import barriers and other measures, within ten years. We also welcome any initiatives in the Multilateral Trade Negotiations in GATT.
Fourth, my delegation agrees in substance with paragraph 1.85. In the near future the role of the public sector in agriculture must be reduced to maintain cost competitiveness and to induce more competition between, and effectiveness of, private sectors. I am sure many governments should have this policy as well. However, governments try to solve the remainder of rural poverty by distributing income, employment, education and food for their poorest people. Therefore, my delegation hopes that any aid and assistance, from the rich countries, inter-governmental organizations and non-governmental organizations should provide funds and other resources for the poor countries. It is clear that the developed countries cannot assist the developing countries without dedicating funds and resources to the poor.
Fifth, on figure 2.1 my delegation feels that livestock development between developed and developing countries has a wider gap. My delegation is, thus, quite surprised because FAO dedicates less resources and funds for livestock developement in developing countries, while developed countries have already succeeded in this field and have the capability to export milk, meat and related livestock products. My delegation feels that FAO should pay more attention to the allocation of funds and resources to these funds. At the same time FAO should monitor and evaluate livestock projects.
Sixth, on Chapter 3 my delegation also agrees that the low world prices of cereals are more likely to moderate the cereal production growth of the developing exporting countries. Meanwhile, developing countries will be faced by an increase in hunger and malnutrition in the year 2000. The evidence shows that the developing countries will expand production by devoting more land, not by increasing yield per area; so my delegation would like to emphasize the role of FAO in the cooperation between countries to increase yield per area by using new technology, as well as development such as increasing irrigated areas, fertilizers, high-yield varieties and other approaches.
Seventh, my delegation feels that world forestry and the fisheries situation for the year 2000 is very challenging because we are now in an era when the environment has been destroyed more than ever before, therefore, forests must be improved to maintain their natural balance; fishing and aquaculture must also increasse to provide protein sources for our population in the near future.
Moreover, we have to restrict every kind of activity which may destroy world nature, especially in industrial areas.
My delegation also realises the importance of the problem of indebtedness of developing countries. This must be related to low agricultural prices throughout the world, caused by heavy surpluses produced in industrial countries. Thailand always supports any measures to relieve the debt burden problem in developing countries.
Finally, my delegation would like to propose that FAO should play a greater role as the central body for developing, managing and assisting agricultural policies in the right ways. FAO must also be strengthened in order to provide future projects within the changing international environment to feed the hungry world.
Fereydun SANEI (Iran, Islamic Republic of): On behalf of the Iranian delegation and myself, I should like to extend my deep appreciation to the Secretariat for the presentation of the very lucid and elaborate document, C 87/27. The Iranian delegation entirely support "Agriculture: Toward 2000" and hope that this measure can help the developing countries to further their activities in the provision of more agricultural commodities to combat hunger and malnutrition in the years towards 2000.
In view of the fact that the most important economic element is agriculture and animal husbandry, the Islamic Republic of Iran has paid maximum attention to this sector and has drawn up objectives, policies and programmes for the years 1987 - 1996.
With regard to the comprehensive document in front of us, I should like to make the following brief comments. In relation to paragraph 186 on page 17, we fully support the document, and our Government has also taken this as a policy as follows: to refrain from direct interference in the production process of agricultural products, except in the cases of exception urgency, while, on the other hand, maximum use of public involvement in the implementation of the agricultural development programme; to encourage private sector investment and absorb scattered capital for agricultural development.
In relation to fisheries, paragraph 1.07 to 111, pages 20 to 21, we also support the document. Our Government has taken it as a policy and has drawn up such programmes as the utilization of aquatic reserves of the southern and northern seas by developing industrial fishing, utilizing internal water resources for breeding, reproduction and production of fish, and improving the conditions of traditional fishermen by strengthening and supporting fishing cooperatives. So far we have benefited from the close cooperation of FAO and UNDP in the fulfilment of common projects in those areas. We still seek more assistance to further our activities in order to obtain the maximum benefit from these natural resources.
With regard to self-sufficiency in food and agriculture, we fully support the document. In view of the great potential existing in the agricultural sector, our Government believes that agriculture must be deemed to be the pivot of economic development. Therefore, together with other programmes, such as research, training, fundamental operations with water and soil, watershed management, sand dune stabilization and desert revival, as well as agricultural products insurance, the problem of food provision could be solved.
In relation to livestock production, paragraph 4.15 on page 121, we would also support the document. Our Government has taken up policies and measures for increasing production efficiency per unit of livestock and poultry by improving rearing, keeping and breeding systems.
With regard to agricultural research, section 10 of Chapter 4, while we fully support the document, our Government has realised the need for extension of research on all aspects of agriculture and natural resources by providing credits and facilities, and the channelling of all activities on the basis of research findings to solve the problems of the agricultural development programme, if necessary. Therefore, this has been taken as a policy of the Government.
Here I should also like to raise the point that FAO should pay great attention to the introduction of research results being released in developed countries and introduce new findings in different fields of agriculture into developing countries.
Regarding irrigated and dry-farming cultivation, paragraph 4.30, since it is water in our country rather than land which is the binding constraint on food and agricultural development, policy has been drawn up for effective help from the Government in carrying out fundamental activities on land under irrigation and dry-farming cultivation and the provision of guidance and support services for producers to increase per-unit-area production. In this regard we would appeal for cooperation to FAO and those countries which have experienced expertise.
In relation to price policy, paragraph 8.32 on page 206, while we fully support the document, our Government has drawn up a policy for helping in the establishment of an efficient commercial system, with priority for cooperatives, purchasing surplus agricultural production through the network of rural cooperative unions and producers and in addition for supporting farmers through agricultural produce insurance and determination of guaranteed prices for essential agriculture products and extension of public insurance to the rural level.
Emilio PARDO (Argentina): Quisiera agradecer, en nombre de mi delegación, a la Secretaría de la FAO por la actualización que efectuara del estudio "La Agricultura: hacia el año 2 000".
Esta actualización, además del interés específico de la temática tratada, permite cotejar las variaciones del contexto económico internacional en relación a 1979 en que apareciera el mencionado trabajo, y su incidencia sobre las proyecciones y conclusiones que en aquel momento se formularan.
Sabemos de qué manera se reiteran los precedentes históricos que llaman a la humildad a los científicos y políticos sobre sus proyecciones económicas del futuro más o menos lejano.
Desde las antiguas estimaciones, felizmente no cumplidas hasta el presente, de Malthus y David Ricardo, y en épocas muchos más recientes por el Club de Roma, entre otras muchas organizaciones de esta natura-leza, resulta de interés valorizar este tipo de trabajo prospectivo con la perspectiva que les da lo que realmente sucedió.
Para hacer este tipo de trabajos resulta necesario seleccionar y manejar un acopio formidable de información de todo tipo, analizarla destacando sus aspectos más relevantes y motivadores, formular pronósticos sobre su futura evolución y esbozar guías para que gobiernos y asociaciones públicas o privadas de productores y consumidores prevean sus acciones y establezcan sus políticas y cursos de acción.
En esta dirección el trabajo de la FAO es motivador, porque además de lo señalado precedentemente,
permitirá establecer lineamientos para la acción política multilateral y para la adopción de acuerdos en éste y en otros foros. Me estoy refiriendo, en este ultimo sentido, al GATT y la UNCTAD especialmente.
La relectura de este importante documento con un intervalo de casi ocho años desde el momento de su publicación en forma abreviada, permite marcar la persistencia de viejos problemas, disipar ciertas expectativas entonces optimistas y, lamentablemente, acentuar los tintes oscuros de las previsiones negativas.
Veamos algunos detalles destacados que la Secretaría pone a nuestra consideración y que, al cotejarlos con la actualidad, resultan casi irónicos, si es que no supiéramos que la Secretaría de la FAO es demasiado seria y competente como para permitirse ironizar sobre la realidad.
En efecto, por un lado nos alegramos porque "resultaron infundados los temores de una escasez crónica de alimentos en gran parte del mundo". Pero, por otro lado, constatamos con asombro e indignación que "350 ó 510 millones de personas (según los cálculos) siguen estando gravemene desnutridas."
Nos esperanzamos con que los países desarrollados de economía de mercado "están viéndose obligados a modificar sus políticas a fin de resolver el problema de un crecimiento de la producción subvencio-nada más rápido que la demanda", y que el cambio de políticas de los países de economía centralmente planificada consiste en "otorgar menos importancia a una dirección centralizada minuciosa y en dejar que las fuerzas del mercado actúen más libremente".
Pero por otra parte, nos preocupa profundamente que los países más endeudados y dependientes de las exportaciones agrícolas (especialmente los de América Latina y Africa) sean aquellos que se han visto obligados a reducir sus indispensables gastos públicos en el sector agrícola y emprender reajustes dolorosos, al mismo tiempo que experimentan el impacto más directo y negativo del agravamiento de la crisis económica internacional.
Lamentablemente ya no nos asombra la información de que "las exportaciones de productos agropecuarios se convirtieran en un motor más débil e incierto de crecimiento", ni tampoco que "los productos exportados por los países desarrollados estuvieran cada vez más subvencionados y que esta competencia despiadada hiciera que los precios reales pagados en los mercados internacionales se hundieran hasta los niveles más bajos del período de la postguerra".
No podemos sino destacar lo negativo del pronóstico de que "el problema de los actuales excedentes de productos básicos se agravaría".
Prosigamos citando otras previsiones sombrías y sus principales causas originantes: "siguen disminuyendo los superávit del comercio agrícola en los países en desarrollo", causados en gran parte por las políticas de protección y la consiguiente generación de excedentes y exportaciones subvencionadas de productos competidores, como el azúcar y los aceites vegetales en muchos países desarrollados." Además, a la larga lista de exportaciones subvencionadas por los países desarrollados, se sumó, de mantenerse las tendencias de la producción y de las economías más desarrolladas, la transformación de éstas últimas en importantes exportadoras netas de aceites vegetales y semillas oleaginosas.
Al respecto, como una esperanza de que no se agrave esta situación, es que aguardamos que no se concrete la modificación del actual régimen de oleaginosos en la CEE con la introducción de un impuesto que afectará negativamente las exportaciones de los países en desarrollo, incluyendo el nuestro.
Señor Presidente, mi delegación no puede sino compartir que "en el comercio agrícola reina el desorden y la preocupación por el hecho de no haber podido llegar hasta la fecha a establecer un marco internacional eficaz y equitativo para el comercio agrícola".
También coincidimos con que "una liberalización del comercio y un mejor acceso a los mercados internacionales of recen me jores perspectivas de los conflictos comerciales".
Al respecto, hemos concebido grandes expectativas sobre el resultado de las presentes negociaciones comerciales multilaterales en el marco del GATT, sobre todo en el área agrícola.
En ese contexto, el Grupo Cairns, que integran países del norte y del sur, en una coincidencia de cooperación muy estimulante, ha presentado una propuesta de negociación que esperamos facilite el logro de acuerdos con las otras partes contratantes del GATT.
Estos acuerdos resultan absolutamente indispensables para encontrar, a su vez, una solución al elevado nivel de la deuda externa, que se ha convertido en "un importante problema para muchos países, sobre todo en América Latina y Africa, y también para los acreedores". Coincidimos, una vez más, con la Secretaría en que "el comercio agrícola podrá contribuir a generar un mayor superávit comercial en algunos de los países endeudados, pero ello dependerá en gran medida de que suban los precios de los productos básicos y se tenga mejor acceso a los mercados".
Compartimos la apreciación de que los países en desarrollo tienen que generar tecnologías simples y avanzadas, o al menos tener acceso a ellas. Para ello se necesita formar investigadores, contar con talleres y laboratorios y establecer enlaces sólidos en los centros de investigación mundial.
También estamos de acuerdo con la imprescindible necesidad de superar, o por lo menos atenuar, el problema ecológico en el desarrollo agrícola.
Pero tanto los adelantos tecnológicos, como el tratamiento y la protección del medio ambiente no son baratos, como dice el estudio.
Frente a la escasez de fondos disponibles y las insuficiencias de la inversión pública y privada en los países en desarrollo,¿cómo afrontar las demandas presentadas para la generación y difusión de las tecnologías de avanzada?, ¿cómo prever los recursos naturales del agotamiento o de la mala utilización?
Permítame cerrar mi intervención con algunas sugerencias para la Secretaría: primero, nos parece que debió incluirse en el estudio alguna cuantificación de los costos financieros implicados en los esquemas de protección y subsidios a la producción, comercialización y almacenamiento; segundo, nos parece también que debió cuantificarse cuántos ingresos han dejado de percibir los países en desarrollo por el mantenimiento de esos esquemas de protección y de subsidio; y tercero, nos parece también que se hubiera podido efectuar algún tipo de cuantificación de la repercusión que una liberalización del comercio internacional de productos agrícolas podría haberle traído a la comunidad internacional, en términos de bienestar, generación de empleo y de inversión y crecimiento de los intercambios.
Sabemos que la Secretaría de otros foros internacionales y de otros organismos no gubernamentales han efectuado cuantificaciones de este tipo. Recordamos, asimismo un excelente trabajo efectuado por el Gobierno de Australia sobre los costos que, para el consumidor europeo, implica la política agraria común. Pero sabemos que la Secretaría de la FAO cuenta con importantes fuentes de información propia, así como con capacidad técnica realmente privilegiada. Por ello, nos interesaría una prof,un-dización del trabajo al respecto.
Sabemos - repito - que este tipo de cuantificaciones no son fáciles de realizar, pero nos atreveríamos a pronosticar sus resultados desde ya. El estudio de la FAO nos lo insinúa. Sin duda sería un mundo mucho mejor.
Guy FRADIN (France): Ma délégation n'a pas plus que les autres formulé de remarques lors de l'adoption de l'ordre du jour de notre Conférence. Pourtant, au moment d'examiner la révision de l'étude prospective de développement agricole d'ici à l'an 2000, il apparaît à notre sens une légère incohérence dans le développement logique de nos travaux. Nous pensons en effet qu'il aurait été plus opportun de débattre des grandes lignes d'évolution possible de l'agriculture mondiale au début de nos travaux avant d'examiner le programme de travail de l'Organisation à la lumière de ce débat.
Par parenthèse, Monsieur le Président, nous aurions eu ainsi plus de temps pour débattre d'un point aussi important.
C'est parce que ce point nous paraît fondamental que ma délégation regrette vivement que le document correspondant n'ait pas été disponible en temps utile, en tout cas dans sa version française. Nous n'avons pu en prendre connaissance qu'au cours de nos travaux et nous ne pouvons que déplorer la situation dans laquelle nous sommes placés pour pouvoir traiter de façon un tant soit peu sérieuse ce sujet.
Dans ces conditions, vous voudrez bien considérer les commentaires qui vont suivre comme préliminaires, résultats d'une lecture rapide car les services compétents de mon pays ne pourront examiner cette étude qu'au cours des semaines à venir.
Je souhaite donc que soit notée la demande expresse de ma délégation pour que l'examen de cette étude soit aussi réalisé au sein d'un prochain Comité de l'agriculture, éventuellement du Conseil.
Je formulerai une seule remarque sur la forme de ce document: nous pensons qu'il aurait été intéressant de le compléter par une brève comparaison avec les hypothèses et les résultats de la précédente étude.
Sur le fond de cette étude, ma délégation tient à féliciter le Secrétariat pour la qualité de cette mise à jour. L'analyse nous paraît équilibrée et la vision prospective raisonnable. Bien sûr, ce genre d'exercice reste délicat et ses résultats fragiles par nature, la nécessité de la mise à jour et de la révision des hypothèses de la précédente étude le montre.
Mais il est tout de même fort intéressant pour nous tous de réfléchir sur ce que pourra être probablement l'agriculture mondiale dans quinze ans.
Cette vision ne vaut évidemment que par la valeur des hypothèses qui y conduisent et, comme je l'ai dit, nous ne sommes pas en mesure de les discuter ici aujourd'hui. Mais nous notons avec satisfaction que la révision accomplie par le Secrétariat en intégrant les retournements de tendances constatés au cours des dernières années conduit à une vision plus claire que par le passé, fondée sur un seul scénario et aussi relativement optimiste quoique cet optimisme soit avec raison nuancé en fonction des secteurs et des régions.
Nous notons aussi avec satisfaction l'appréciation globalement positive qui est faite du développe-ment agricole au cours des vingt-cinq dernières années durant lesquelles l'importance croissante de l'agriculture dans l'économie internationale et dans les économies nationales s'est affirmée. Il y a là à notre sens un progrès fondamental par rapport à la situation de ce secteur au début des années 70.
L'examen de ce bilan montre aussi, et c'est rassurant, qu'il n'y a pas fatalité du sous-développement agricole, comme en témoignent les résultats enregistrés dans certains pays ou certaines régions qui sont mentionnés dans divers paragraphes.
S'agissant des perspectives d'avenir, ma délégation a bien noté l'évaluation faite par le Secrétariat pour les pays en développement et les pays développés et résumée dans les paragraphes 1.33 à 1.50. Elle rappelle à cet égard ce qu'elle a dit à propos de l'examen de la situation mondiale de l'alimen-tation et de l'agriculture, au cours de cette Conférence comme au cours du Conseil de juin dernier. Ne convient-il pas de s'interroger plus avant sur les conséquences que pourraient avoir à moyen terme les mesures de compression de l'offre que sont amenés à prendre actuellement les pays grands producteurs? Au paragraphe 1.50, le Secrétariat fait fort justement remarquer que la croissance de la production dans ces pays doit ralentir mais ne pas s'arrêter. Il serait sans doute opportun de suivre l'évolution possible et probable de cette production avec attention.
Le point relatif au commerce international m'est aussi l'occasion de rappeler la déclaration de ma délégation au sujet de l'ajustement agricole international et dans laquelle a été soulignée l'approche que nous faisons de ces problèmes. Je n'y reviendrai pas en détail et me contenterai de deux remarques:
- la première à partir du paragraphe 1.74 sur la libération des échanges entre pays en développement. C'est un objectif important vers lequel il faut tendre. Pourtant, nous estimons qu'il serait normal que les pays les plus défavorisés aient la possibilité d'abriter leur économie agricole face à des pays qui disposeraient d'avantages comparatifs plus importants que les leurs.
- deuxième remarque, à partir des paragraphes 1.72 et 1.46. Nous sommes favorables à la plus grande ouverture possible des marchés des pays industrialisés aux pays en développement, et notamment aux plus pauvres. Cependant, nous pensons qu'il ne faut pas surestimer les conséquences positives de cette ouverture, car, comme le remarque le document, la demande en matières de produits alimentaires est inélastique et les marchés des pays consommateurs sont souvent saturés.
Nous avons apprécié, Monsieur le Président, la prise en compte de l'influence importante et récipro-que des politiques macro-économiques et des politiques agricoles. Nous avons bien sûr noté avec satisfaction, de même, le paragraphe 3.56 sur la nécessité de l'adoption de politiques agricoles appropriées. Je rappelle à cet égard le sens de la proposition faite par notre Ministre de l'Agriculture en séance plénière de financer un fonds fiduciaire à la FAO dans ce domaine. La France souhaite ainsi participer à l'effort des formations des cadres des pays en développement chargés de la défi-nition et de la mise en oeuvre de politiques agricoles ainsi que de ceux qui devront en tenir compte dans les politiques d'ajustement.
En outre, Monsieur le Président, ma délégation a identifié sommairement quelques points qui, à notre sens, pourraient faire l'objet d'une réflexion accrue de la part du Secrétariat. Ce sont des points d'ordre général, je pense par exemple à la place croissante des échanges internationaux dans les approvisionnements alimentaires mentionnés au paragraphe 2.24 ou aux orientations générales des politiques agricoles. Ce sont aussi des points plus techniques, comme la fragilité des sols et la reconstitution de leur fertilité, la reproductibilité des systèmes de production ou la possibilité d'extension des cultures irriguées. Mais nous aurons l'occasion d'y revenir lors d'un examen futur détaillé.
Avant de conclure, je voudrais insister sur la grande qualité du chapitre VIII, qui présente avec beaucoup de clarté et d'équilibre les contraintes auxquelles doivent faire face les pays en développement confrontés aux problèmes d'ajustement. Ma délégation souscrit, pour le moment, aux analyses et conclusions de ce chapitre.
Sans préjuger des résultats d'un examen plus attentif de notre part nous pensons qu'en réalisant cette étude la FAO joue exactement le rôle qui doit être le sien dans le domaine du développement agricole. Ma délégation s'en félicite et félicite le Secrétariat pour ses efforts. Nous pensons cependant qu'il serait opportun de donner des suites concrètes à ce travail, d'une part au niveau de notre organisation en utilisant les résultats les plus évidents pour guider son activité, d'autre part, au niveau des pays en essayant de mettre à leur disposition un certain nombre de conclusions susceptibles de leur permettre de définir les instruments de leurs politiques.
Moses Mike MUKOLWE (Kenya): The Kenya delegation welcomes the second revised version of document C 87/27 on Agriculture: Toward 2000up-dating that of 1981.
We commend both the Secretariat and Dr Islam who presented it at this session. There could be none better that Dr Islam who has, for the last ten years, grappled with the development of the two versions. We wish him well and hope the work will be continued in future with further improvements.
In order to influence the future, one should look at the past and at the part played by agriculture in enhancing the rise of incomes, expansion of trade and trade terms, policy issues applied to agriculture and their implications, and the spread of technology. The trend comparison of each commodity production can give some broad indications in their adjustments. We fully endorse the statement at paragraph 1.7 of the document before us on policy reforms. In our earlier intervention we made reference to the priority programme of the development of agriculture in Africa, particularly in the Sub-Sahara where the international community is focusing, and we must pull ourselves out of this critical situation.
Kenya has chosen to pursue long term, that is about fifteen to twenty years, targeted commodity projections and the interplay of socio-economic issues in their development. Our economic management is subject to thorough scrutiny in the allocation of scarce resources in order to balance and spread the benefits equitably in the country. The adjustements have come about though analysis of the achievements set in each Five-Year Development Plan and the establishment of each year's socio-economic indicators.
In our view, nutrition, as well as health, is crucial in the face of a rising population. Income upward growth, employment generation and other social advancements will have come through improvement in the agricultural sector and related industries. We reaffirm our commitment to furthering agriculture and food production in particular. However, access to markets, favourable trade terms, stable and steadily increasing prices, coupled with the inflow of investment resources from the international scene, can enhance our economic management.
Rain-fed agriculture will require intensification of commodity production and yield increase - hence the use of off-farm inputs. Investment in irrigation and resource base - that is soil, water and afforestation - conservation is going to be a massive investment. Environmental problems and desertification in particular are areas of great concern. The prime mover should be research to generate technologies in all agro-ecological zones of the country. We observe Zambia's comments about the study and long-term climatic conditions. We support this sort of approach in our region.
The interventions to sustain the above remain critical on our part, and therefore we need FAO's and overall international support.
Concerning Chapters 1 to 4, we feel we have covered them in our debate very effectively.
As to Chapter 5 on forestry, great concern is on water catchment areas and planting of indigenous trees, including agro-forestry. We support the Tropical Forest Action Plan and genetic diversity conservation.
Concerning Chapter 6 on fisheries, much is needed to realise full participation and exploitation of the exclusive economic zone. Rational use of fishing rights in deep waters - of course with ethics -has to be observed by those with the resources to venture into such areas.
Chapters 7 and 8 are even more crucial for the balancing of world resource use.
Chapter 9 has been aggravated by the trends in Chapters 7 and 8, thus creating mounting poverty. The debt burden does not augur well for the poverty stricken.
Chapter 10 directs us into the future. Land use and farming system developments remain a new challenge, and our hope is that mankind will realise it now.
Chapter 11 spells out the danger if global environmental factors are disregarded. This could lead to the total annihilation of mankind in this, our one and only planet.
As to the last paragraph, 11.70, the cost may be prohibitive for the 75 to 100 years indicated to protect the environment. This could be damaged forever.
Paragraphs 11.71 and 11.72 end the Chapter and the document, but on a light touch. Future work should concern efficient water, energy, food and commodity production on a renewable approach without degradation of base resources. This is not just a technical shift for FAO and farmers' participation but for ail inter-agencies and the entire international community.
In conclusion, guidelines for future farming must be laid down, and the setting up of institutions to establish ethics to bring about a balance, is long overdue.
We wish to support the comments made by the delegate of the Netherlands and others on the environment and other production factors.
Roberto NICOLAI (Italie): Je voudrais remercier le Secrétariat pour l'excellent document qui nous a été remis concernant la mise à jour de l'étude "Agriculture: Horizon 2000".
Gomme l'a déjà rappelé notre Président du Conseil à l'occasion de la Journée mondiale de l'alimenta-tion, en tenant compte de l'importance de plus en plus grande de l'interdépendance mondiale, une collaboration plus étroite est nécessaire entre pays industrialisés et pays en voie de développement pour un effort conjoint en vue de l'élimination de la faim et de la malnutrition, et pour rendre ainsi possible le développement équilibré de la société internationale. Il nous semble que la présentation du document "Horizon 2000" se place selon ces lignes.
A cet égard, concernant notamment les problèmes évoqués au chapitre VII, un effort conjoint et la coopération de toutes les parties sont nécessaires afin de remédier à la crise qui frappe le commerce international des produits agricoles, crise accentuée entre autres par le déséquilibre entre l'offre et la demande ainsi que la concurrence croissante entre les pays exportateurs. Il nous semble donc que le problème de fond repose dans l'ajustement des politiques agricoles respectives, dans une perspective à plus long terme.
Le phénomène de caractère général prend une dimension et un aspect tout particuliers en ce qui concerne certains produits d'une très grande importance pour l'alimentation, tels que les céréales, les produits laitiers, le sucre, la viande bovine, et leurs excédents dans certains pays à économie développée et dans certains pays en voie de développement. Ces surplus structurels manifesteraient une tendance à l'accroissement si la situation actuelle devait persister.
Ainsi que cela a. déjà été rappelé, les négociations Uruguay-Round, amorcées tout récemment à Genève, pourraient représenter le siège efficace pour atteindre ces résultats.
En effet, il faut observer qu'un des objectifs essentiels énoncés dans la déclaration de Punta del Este consiste à assurer une plus grande libéralisation et une expansion du commerce mondial au profit de tous les pays, notamment les moins développés et sutrout une amélioration de l'accès aux marchés.
Par conséquent, nous estimons que les négociations auprès du GATT devraient s'inspirer des lignes directrices ci-après:
- engagement de toutes les parties contractantes à ne pas introduire de nouvelles mesures de protectionnisme et à éliminer les mesures contraires aux règles du GATT;
- concertation entre les principaux pays producteurs et exportateurs pour limiter les productions excédentaires. Une discipline concertée au niveau international devrait permettre d'ajuster de façon plus réaliste l'offre à la demande par des mesures permettant au marché de jouer un role plus significatif;
- réalisation d'une plus grande libération du commerce par la suppression - au moins - de ces entraves li plus directement et nettement freinent les échanges internationaux de produits agricoles;
- une réduction progressive équilibrée et réciproque de ces mesures d'aide qui, plus directement, puissent se répercuter sur les échanges internationaux. Cependant, il faut souligner la légitimité de ces interventions d'Etat visant à moderniser les structures d'entreprise, des aides aux investis-sements, du crédit agricole facilité, sans lesquels aucune évolution ne pourrait se vérifier dans l'agriculture.
Cette manoeuvre pourrait produire des effets favorables, surtout à l'égard des pays en développement, qui pourront recevoir des avantages concrets par le redressement des marchés mondiaux, à savoir la hausse des prix et l'augmentation prévue découlant des exportations.
Sra. Doña Grafila SOTO CARRERO (Cuba): Mi delegación agradece a la Secretaría y en especial al Profesor Islam por la preparación y presentación de este estudio: "Agricultura hacia el año 2000". La delegación de Cuba considera de gran importancia este estudio. La publicación del mismo, como ya lo han expresado otras delegaciones, es una de las más completas presentadas por la Secretaría de la FAO en los últimos años.
Sobre el mismo, haremos unos breves comenatarios. Encontramos algunas incongruencias en importantes planteamientos que se hacen en el informe. De una parte, se nos informa que son positivos los resultados generales registrados en el sector agrícola en los últimos 25 años. Si bien mi delegación considera que ha habido mejoras considerables, no nos parece totalmente correcta la calificación,de positivos los resultados, debido a que todavía no se ha resuelto el gravísimo problema como el acceso a los alimentos de los sectores más pobres de la población. Así mismo, continúan siendo necesarios los ajustes fundamentales en el comercio internacional de productos agrícolas. La situación que se presenta nuevamente en las zona subsahariana y que fue analizada en el tema del Estado Mundial de la Agricultura y la Alimentación son muestra de 1° que al respecto señalamos.
El propio documento indica que de mantenerse en el futuro las tendencias actuales, se agravarán en muchos casos los problemas y las disparidades actuales, o se llegarán a resultados poco realistas. Las perspectivas del crecimiento del comercio internacional de la mayor parte de productos agrícolas hasta el final de siglo, también han empeorado en comparación con la evaluación anterior, las cuales eran ya bastante desalentadoras.
No nos extenderemos en este aspecto, y apoyamos los planteamientos que al respecto hizo anteriormente la distinguida delegación de Argentina. Mi delegación considera que tampoco podemos perder de vista las consecuencias de la deuda externa ya que el pago de sus servicios conlleva, entre otros aspectos, a una limitación de las posibilidades de importación de elementos fundamentales para el desarrollo agrícola por parte de los países subdesarrollados.
A este respecto, la delegación de Cuba quisiera preguntar a la Secretaría si fuese posible que en un próximo análisis de la situación agrícola y alimentaria, se contemplara un capítulo referente a las consecuencias negativas de la deuda externa en la producción agrícola y alimentaria en los países subdesarrollados.
Otros órganos del Sistema de Naciones Unidas así como Organismos Regionales han analizado, de manera especial, este actualísimo problema. La FAO, si bien ha tratado del mismo en diferentes informes, no ha hecho un debate específico sobre la deuda externa y su influencia nefasta en la alimentación y la agricultura de los países subdesarrollados. En algunas Regiones, como la de América Latina y el Caribe, la situación es insostenible.
A nuestro entender, una variante pudiera ser comenzar a analizar este tema en las próximas conferencias regionales; sugerencia que nos permitimos hacer a la Secretaría y nos gustaría conocer su criterio al respecto.
Pensamos también, señor Presidente, que es necesario incrementar las informaciones sobre medio ambiente, forestación, capacitación de personal, capacitación de los jóvenes en el desarrollo económico y social en general, y en el desarrollo rural en particular.
Otro aspecto fundamental para el incremento de la producción es el referente a todo tipo de ayuda financiera a los países en desarrollo. Algunas regiones, como la nuestra de América Latina y el Caribe, han sido muy deficientes en este aspecto, y así lo reconoce el documento. Un elemento directamente relacionado con este tema es la deficiencia de los presupuestos de los organismos especializados de Naciones Unidas, como el nuestro, la FAO, que en dos bienios ha sido regido por el crecimiento cero; y la FAO, señor Presidente debe seguir prestando su valiosa ayuda a los países subdesarrollados.
Finalmente, quisiera expresar que hemos notado poca conexión entre la cooperación técnica entre países en desarrollo y aspectos de gran importancia y de difícil aplicación como son, por ejemplo, el uso de la biotecnología en la reproducción y la salud de los animales así como en el mejoramiento de los cultivos.
La delegación de Cuba reitera sus elogios a los esfuerzos realizados en la elaboración de este importante documento. Sin embargo, consideramos que en futuras oportunidades estos estudios deberían llegar con más anterioridad a nuestros países para que puedan ser analizados con mayor profundidad por nuestros especialistas y técnicos. Muchas gracias.
The meeting rose at 12.30 hours
La séance est levée à 12 h 30
Se levanta la sesión a las 12.30 horas
