B.P. DUTIA (Assistant Director-General, Economic and Social Policy Department): As in the past, the Secretariat has prepared two documents for this agenda item. The first one, The State of Food and Agriculture 1991, C 91/2, is based on information available to the Secretariat up to late July. The second one, C 91/2-Sup.l, contains information updated to mid-September. A longer term perspective of selected trends and issues related to food and agriculture is provided in document C 91/18, International Agricultural Adjustment: Progress Report, which as you all know will be discussed under Agenda Item 6.2.
In introducing this item, I shall focus on recent developments and changes. Document C 91/2 begins with an overview of the global economic environment surrounding agriculture. However, since the preparation of this document, estimates and forecasts of the main world economic indicators have been significantly revised. According to recent IMF estimates, world economic activity is likely to grow by only 0.9 percent this year, 1991, the lowest in any year since 1982. The most significant revision concerns Eastern Europe and the USSR where overall output is expected to fall by almost 11 percent. For the coming year IMF forecasts the world economy to grow 2.8 percent in 1992. This is expected to be the result of the recovery in the major industrialized nations. Economic growth is also forecast to accelerate in the developing countries as a whole reflecting the recovery in industrial countries, expectation of some firming in commodity prices and more normal trade and reconstruction activity in the Near East. However, the expected GDP growth in Africa in 1992 according to the IMF estimates, would only barely exceed population growth, while Latin America and the Caribbean would only moderately improve over the poor growth performance of the previous four years. After the dramatic contraction this year, output is expected to fall further by nearly 4 percent in Eastern Europe and the USSR.
External debt of developing countries, which according to the World Bank rose by about 6 percent in 1990, remains a major economic constraint to many countries. The debt-service ratio of developing countries only slightly improved in 1990 reflecting debt-relief and debt-forgiveness operations as well as the strong export performance of several severely indebted middle income countries. However, the service on long-term debt in sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 20 percent of total exports in 1990, compared to 17 percent in 1989.
Turning to agriculture, recent information confirms our earlier rather pessimistic forecasts for food and agricultural production in 1991: namely a decline at the global level, for the first time since 1983; a slowdown in agricultural production growth in developing countries, significantly below the 1980s average; and a decline in per caput food production in much of
Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean as well as the Near East. As regards cereals, the supply/demand situation has further tightened as a result of expectations of below-trend production and a sizeable erosion of stocks. Estimates for global cereal production in 1991 have been revised downwards to 1 885 million tons, about 4 percent less than last year's record, mainly reflecting lower than expected harvest in the United States and the USSR. The wheat output in the United States of America will be over one-fourth smaller than last year's bumper crop and coarse grain production 5 percent smaller. In the USSR (including the newly independent Baltic States), a 25 percent reduction in the output of cereals and pulses is expected this year. This reduction, considerably more pronounced than previously estimated, arises from unfavourable weather conditions, infrastructural bottlenecks and shortages of spare parts and fuel.
The forecast of world trade in cereals in 1991-92 has been only slightly revised from those contained in document C 91/2- Sup.1. However, this forecast still remains tentative. Considerable uncertainty surrounds the market oùtlook for cereals which may be strongly affected by financing conditions and hence the volume of cereal imports by the USSR. Indeed, wheat and coarse grain prices have further strengthened in recent weeks reflecting the tight supply/demand situation and expectations of larger shipments to the USSR.
The recent increase in cereal prices contrasts with the weakness that has persisted in other commodity prices of crucial economic importance for many developing countries. Thus, prices of tropical beverages, particularly coffee, have continued to fall to levels significantly below those of a year ago, as have those of cotton and bananas. Such price movements give rise to concern, as they follow several years of pronounced deterioration in the terms of trade and purchasing power of agricultural exports of developing countries.
Another market development with implications for agricultural production, transport costs and agricultural terms of trade has been the recent increase in oil prices, to the highest levels since the Gulf War, caused by expectations of tight supply conditions in the coming months and possible disruptions in exports by the USSR.
Even assuming no growth in world cereal utilization, carryover stocks of cereals at the end of the 1991-92 seasons appear to be poised for a significant drawdown, to the current forecast of 301 million tons, 32 million tons or 10 percent less than their opening level. The reduction in stocks which will be mainly concentrated in developed countries will erode the margin for food security close to what the FAO Secretariat considers to be the minimum safe level for food security and introduce increased market volatility and pressure on prices. In these conditions, world food security in 1992-93 will crucially depend upon the achievement of significantly larger cereal harvests in 1992.
S. NAJMAS-SAQIB (Pakistan): The Pakistan delegation would like to commend the Secretariat for an informative paper on the subject, as well as for the clarity of Mr Dutia's presentation.
As this is the first time that our delegation has taken the floor, we would also like to congratulate the Chairman of the Commission on his assumption of office.
Documents C 91/2 and C 91/2-Sup.1 reflect on the State of Food and Agriculture in the world today and indicate that the world economic situation, particularly as it relates to the developing countries in this sector, is not satisfactory. The overall economic growth has primarily been unfavourable. Besides certain other factors, this perhaps has been mainly due to (1) unresolved external debt problems; and (2) protectionist policies of the developed countries while trading with the developing countries.
We share FAO's priority to replenish depleted food shortages and to establish a minimum level of global food security with particular emphasis on the situations in the developing countries. We would like to jointly work with FAO for evolving methodologies for sustainable development in the food and agriculture sector, which would improve the consumption, production and equitable distribution of food.
With 1989 as the base year, it would be seen that there has been an overall declining trend in the food and agriculture sector in the developing countries. In fact, the current growth rate as indicated represents a significant slowdown from the high growth rate of 3.2 percent in 1989. In some of the developing countries the Gulf War and the resultant rise in oil prices could have been another factor for the economic retardation.
At the same time, unfortunately, the world food production-forecast is lower for 1991. Global cereal supplies are expected to tighten further in 1991-92. Output is likely to fall short of utilization, indicating the drawdown of stocks. The food supply position is becoming critical in different regions. The Horn of Africa is a case in point, where food emergency is deepening - this calls for immediate and continued massive relief efforts. Only by doing so, can the sufferings of the people be alleviated in this region. In this respect, FAO' s role should be crucial and should be more visible.
Farm activities and bilateral trade relationships in the countries in the Near East Region have been affected by the Gulf crisis. Efforts are called-for to effect normalcy in production and to lay the basis for sustainable agricultural development in this region.
Notwithstanding the above, the state of food and agriculture in the Asian Region and in my country, Pakistan, has been satisfactory on the whole. It may be added that effect of the declining trend in world imports has not been as severe in Asia as it has been in other regions mentioned above. In fact, the adaptability capacity, if I may use the term, of the developing countries in this region vis-à-vis the overall economic conditions affecting them was strengthened in this period. It may be safe to add that no Asian country was faced with famine conditions during this time. In Pakistan various economic reforms have been undertaken, including the food and agriculture sector. A growth rate of 4.7 percent has been envisaged in the ongoing Seventh Five-Year Plan (1988-93); while in 1990-91, a growth rate of 5.2 percent was achieved as against the targeted one of
4.5 percent. Our future goal is to accelerate the rate of growth of our agricultural economy. Details of the Pakistan agricultural sector have been given earlier. (See Council 99 documents, etc.)
The serious debt problems along with the outflow of capital in the developing countries, unfortunately, works against the development efforts undertaken by these countries. The indebtedness of the developing countries, unfortunately, plummeted to a record level of approximately US$1.29 trillion. This leads to the weakening of food-importability of the developing countries, as well as in the reduction of the capital needed for the development of this sector. At the same time, the developing countries experience difficulties in obtaining aid and debt reliefs in accordance with their own respective priorities. It is here, unfortunately, that the developing countries become vulnerable to external pressures.
On the other hand, it is becoming more and more difficult for the agricultural commodities from the developing countries to gain access to the markets of the developed countries. This problem is accentuated by the fact that developed countries - already enjoying the advantageous position because of their economic controls - tend to increase subsidies in their agricultural sector, both in production and export. All this and more makes the markets of the developed countries more and more inaccessible to the developing countries.
As I attempted to explain earlier in the Council Session, this unfortunate situation is likely to go-on as we step into the 21st Century. Under the circumstances, may we submit that the Conference try to find solutions to the ever increasing and continuing problems of the developing countries, many of which are, unfortunately, man-made.
In the end, it is stated that it gives one confidence that food and agriculture - a sector on which most developing countries are dependent -attracts the attention of the world; and through deliberations, serious thought and genuine efforts, solutions would, Insha'Allah, be found for the problems of the developing countries.
Oscar Sales PETINGA (Portugal): Le document C 91/2 nous donne un bon aperçu de la situation de l'alimentation et de l'agriculture dans le monde. En réalité, la production agricole a une croissance bien limitée et une analyse plus profonde démontre qu'il y a encore de vastes et importantes régions où la production agricole est insuffisante.
Ainsi, il serait important de vérifier si l'augmentation plus significative de la production alimentaire, qui s'est vérifiée dans les pays développés (où les carences alimentaires n'existent pas), est due à l'activité locale ou si elle a recours à des importations, ou bien si l'augmentation s'est vérifiée, surtout dans les pays en développement. Il serait aussi important de savoir si l'augmentation globale de la production (si elle existe) signifie ou non une augmentation de la production pro capita.
Tout le monde suit avec préoccupation la situation africaine, laquelle ne se trouve pas dans une situation d'amélioration de la production pro capita.
Nous savons que les excédents alimentaires n'ont pas permis de résoudre les problèmes des régions ayant des carences d'aliments et qui ont besoin de progresser à une plus grande vitesse afin de garantir une autosuffisance alimentaire convenable
La continuité de l'aide des pays développés est nécessaire ainsi que celle des pays en développement qui devront utiliser leurs ressources de la meilleure manière possible.
Nous nous préoccupons beaucoup des situations fréquentes qui font ressortir une moins bonne utilisation des ressources naturelles ainsi qu'une augmentation rapide de la production. La fertilité des sols disparaîtra rapidement si les techniques agricoles mises en place devaient ne pas être plus performantes.
L'augmentation de la production alimentaire ne peut pas découler des autres aspects du développement global du pays, y compris la protection des ressources évidemment, mais aussi l'augmentation de la productivité par l'introduction de techniques adaptées, l'utilisation des pesticides, des engrais et des semences et d'autres ressources génétiques convenables.
Il est aussi nécessaire d'améliorer les infrastructures ainsi que les transports des circuits de distribution et de commercialisation y compris l'emmagasinage et la garantie des prix au niveau des agriculteurs. Le développement de l'agriculture devra surtout être coordonné avec le développement des secteurs secondaire et tertiaire, même pour recevoir la population agricole qui se rendra excédentaire avec l'introduction des nouvelles techniques agricoles.
La conservation des ressources s'associe massivement avec la forêt intertropicale, c'est-à-dire avec la forêt humide. Ce problème est réel et important, mais nous ne devons pas oublier que la plus grande partie de l'agriculture annuelle au niveau des tropiques se situe dans des zones de savane et des zones subdésertiques sur lesquelles pèsent aussi des problèmes graves de conservation des ressources en raison d'une agriculture ou d'un élevage très intensif. Il est techniquement très intéressant de recommander les meilleures techniques pour maintenir les ressources, mais l'agriculteur a besoin d'aliments et n'accepte pas facilement des arguments impliquant la non-culture des sols marginaux, dans la mesure où la survie et la surveillance sont en cause et que d'autres formes d'utilisation du sol ou d'autres opportunités de survie ne lui sont pas indiquées.
La délégation portugaise considère comme un facteur très important que l'aide alimentaire devra se maintenir ou même se renforcer, si nécessaire, afin de combattre la famine ou faciliter les échanges au niveau structurel.
Ma délégation accorde aussi une énorme importance à la formation adéquate des cadres, à tous les niveaux, ainsi que les aides techniques que les pays développés pourront accorder et la considèrent comme un système très intéressant et productif de l'aide au développement.
Moalim Ibrahim HASSAN (Somalia): May I preface my remarks by congratulating you, Mr Chairman, for your election to the chair of this most important Commission and I would like to say that I am certain with thanks to your experience and wisdom this work will be crowned with success.
The Somalian delegation would like to draw your attention when looking at the agricultural and food situation, and the attention of the delegates around the room, to para. 3 page 20 of the document C 91/2, as well as C 91/2-Sup.1, para 25. In both of these paragraphs reference is made to the situation in Africa which is particularly pressing and it particularly refers to malnutrition in rural parts of Somalia because of the war.
Although we have had some food aid from various parts of the world this aid is insufficient and remains insufficient. This is insufficient if you set it against the breadth of the problems facing my country. Farmers, and particularly small-scale farmers, are those who are suffering most from the present crisis and the conflicts which upset my country have had a direct effect on the food production in the country as a whole.
This important international body is the best qualified to deal with the problems such as those which my area, the Horn of Africa, is going through at the moment, particularly as is suffered by the people of Somalia at the moment. Given that this Organization plays a crucial and very important role in the area of food and agriculture we would like the FAO to devote particular attention to Somalia because Somalia is really crumbling at the moment; its agricultural structures are collapsing, as is its economy.
Jorgen Skovgaard NIELSEN (Denmark): Since this is my first intervention in Commission I, I take this opportunity to congratulate you and your bureau. I can assure loyal and constructive cooperation from my delegation.
It is hard to intervene just after the very impressive statement by Somalia but I will try nevertheless.
Before commenting on some details in the report, I would like to make some general policy-oriented comments:
The document we have in front of us has traditionally been considered to be the main document of the FAO Conference alongside with the Draft Programme of Work and Budget and from now on also the Medium-Term Plan. It should be the basis for the main global debate on the State of Food and Agriculture and as such the major world event in our sector.
However, what we have in front of us is hardly a policy paper. It is a well-written and a very useful handbook on food and agricultural data from 1989-1991. The Danish delegation highly appreciates the work done by the Secretariat. But it covers a too short time span, it does not fully document major economic trends likely to challenge substantial policy discussions. It does not indicate the likely impact on FAO's goals and programmes as a consequence of these trends. And consequently FAO is missing this event to get signals from membership on the more strategic aspects for FAO of these major economic trends. Such signals are not only a useful, but an indispensable supplement to the discussions on the Programme of Work and Budget and the Medium-Term Plan.
In my specific comments I will deal with not only the State of Food and Agriculture, but also with the next item, which is International Agricultural Adjustment. The issues dealt with in these two documents are in our view interrelated and should really be discussed together.
In fact we would like formally to propose the termination of specific reports on "International Agricultural Adjustment". However, the main elements analysed in the report on "International Agricultural Adjustment" should be incorporated in the report "State of Food and Agriculture". In doing this we would have a consolidated document, which would give a better background for the discussion in this committee, and we would still have the basis for monitoring progress, as analysed in the present progress report on "Agricultural Adjustment". I should like to know the Secretariat's reaction on this proposal.
Of special concern to all of us is the global food situation and in particular the fact that still a large number of people in the world are underfed and hungry.
The report tells us that in the 1980s food and agricultural production increased with an average annual rate of 3.3 percent against the target of 4 percent in guideline 1 of the agricultural adjustment.
We also note with particular interest the achievement in two countries, that is China and India, which together account for half of the population of the developing world, and which have had an annual growth of 4.1 percent in the agricultural production. The report does not explain why the two countries have succeeded so well. It would have been interesting to have more information about the reasons behind this development, successful development I must say. The lessons derived would be to the benefit of other countries, even in spite of very different agro-ecological and socioeconomic condition.
The promising performance of these few developing countries stands in contrast to developing countries as a whole, where there was an increase in agricultural production in 1990 of 2.2 percent only, which is certainly not satisfactory. For Africa there was a decline in per caput food production of 3.7 percent, which underlines the need for special efforts in this region to assure sufficient food supplies.
We are in this context struck by the effect of the macroeconomic environment on the food situation in developing countries. It is stipulated that in the case of Africa a decline in per caput GNP between 1990 and 1991 of about 2 percent would result in a decline in per caput food consumption of 0.8 percent. These figures underscore the fact that problems related to hunger and malnutrition are best alleviated by fighting or eradicating poverty.
It is also interesting to note that the deceleration of global food production growth largely is due to lower rates of growth in developed countries, which are trying to cope with surplus production, and the decline in global cereal stocks, can partly be attributed to this effort. This matter is of importance for the effective world food security. We do note, however, that food security is becoming less a problem of global food supply and stock levels as such, and more a problem of inadequate access to food supplies by vulnerable groups. In this context it is important that developing countries themselves not only adopt national stock policies, but also implement such policies. This is clearly a matter related to food aid policies and the WFP and its governing committee, the CFA.
We should also endeavour to analyse more in depth the question of external debt of developing countries, which is a matter of importance for their development effort. We learn from the State of Food and Agriculture that the debt in 1990 is estimated at US$1 341 billion, or 6 percent more than in the year before. This is a staggering figure, in particular when seen in context with a long-term agricultural external debt of developing countries, a figure of barely US$53 billion, and when compared with figures for official disbursement of external assistance to agriculture in 1987-89 in the "narrow definition" which amount to only US$8.2 billion.
A few weeks ago the EC and the European Free Trade Area, EFTA, concluded their discussion on the establishment of an European Economic Space, creating the largest free trade area in the world.
Equally of immense importance are the Uruguay Round talks, which are now approaching their climax. We wish to see a successful conclusion of the GATT negotiations leading to freer world trade, also with agricultural commodities. It is of importance, however, that reduction of support and protection is realized in a manner that permits competition on a fair basis, thus allocating resources and production to regions that possess natural comparative advantages. It is also important to consider social aspects and to assure the future of farm families and rural communities.
Last, but not least, it is important to take into account the environmental aspects of trade. The present GATT round hardly considers this issue and it is too late now to introduce it. However, it is important that in future GATT rounds it becomes a major challenge to make trade more "greenish" by combining trade and environmental issues with the notion of regional comparative advantages.
Mr Chairman, in terminating, I would like to express the hope that in the future FAO, as the centre of excellence for food and agriculture, will enhance its professional and technical capacities in inviting more dialogue with membership on revision of goals and programmes in the light of a more policy-oriented State of Food and Agriculture. It would help discussions on the Medium-Term Plan on how to accomplish these objectives, and it would enhance considerably the credibility of FAO vis-à-vis its partners inside and outside the UN system.
Chrysanthos LOIZIDES (Cyprus): The delegation of Cyprus wishes to congratulate you on your election to this important Commission of the FAO Conference. The documents submitted by the Secretariat and the introduction to this item by Mr Dutia are very informative and we express our appreciation to them.
The information provided by the relevant documents reflects the real situation of the state of the world's food and agriculture and indicates to us that, despite the slight improvement of the food situation in certain regions, the overall food situation has not really improved. In certain regions, namely Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, the food situation appears to be even worse. As shown in Table 4 on page 16 of document C 91/2, the percentage rate of change in the per capita food production was negative for 98 countries out of the 150 countries listed in this table.
Amongst the countries with a negative rate of change we note with great concern that there are 77 developing countries, most of which are in great financial difficulties and, surely, not in a position to apply the necessary measures for improving the critical food situation that has existed there for years.
The document under review also reveals that the huge debt burden in most of the developing countries continues to be a great obstacle for any development, including food and agricultural production. In 1990 the total external debt of the developing countries has been increased even further and is now estimated at US$1 341 billion. In certain sub-regions, as in the case of the sub-Saharan countries, the stock of debt is highest relative to the size of economy and corresponds to around 112 percent of Gross Domestic Product compared to 87 percent for North Africa and Middle East and 48 percent for Latin America and the Caribbean.
In the same document we also notice a decline in both the export prices and the volume of commodities exported from developing countries. As stated on page 27, the UN agricultural export price index shows a 2.3 percent decline in developing countries, comparing 1990 to 1989 as opposed to a 2.9 percent increase in those of developed countries. Surely, under such conditions, the purchasing capacity of the developing countries should decline even further.
In view of the deteriorating economic and financial conditions in many of the low-income and food deficit countries, and taking into account the current uncertainties in the international economic situation, we can state that the short-term prospects for improving the world food situation are not very promising. Therefore, the issue of world food security as well as the issue of depressed food consumption will continue to be a big challenge for this Organization. Surely, the overall problem concerned with these issues is a complex one, requiring a comprehensive, multi-disciplinary approach, funds and, above all, cooperation.
FAO, being the leading international agency for agricultural development and nutrition since its establishment, has been the centre for promoting cooperation and multidisciplinary activities aiming to improve world agricultural production and nutrition. The role of FAO in this field is becoming even more important nowadays for promoting coordinated efforts towards sustainable agricultural development. We believe that FAO, as always, with the cooperation and assistance of all Member Nations, will be able to respond to the big challenges for sustainable agricultural development and for improving the conditions of nutrition, namely in the low-income and food-deficit countries.
Kwang Wook AN (Korea, Republic of): First of all, my delegation would like to convey my heartiest felicitations to you on your election as Chairman of Commission I.
Coming to the topic of our deliberations here, I would also like to thank the Secretariat for the excellent preparation of the document and Mr Dutia for his lucid presentation of the topic.
Certainly, world food security has been a matter of grave concern to the international community. As a result, food production has been increased remarkably at the global level. However, Mr Chairman, it is regrettable that developing countries are becoming more and more vulnerable as far as food security is concerned.
From the Conference documents, we can see that the situation regarding food production in many developing countries has become rather serious in recent years. Furthermore, economic recession, indebtedness and declining purchasing power in those countries make it increasingly difficult for them to import food to meet their own needs.
We also note that in the context of food aid there have been declining shipments on a global base in recent years, falling well below the target set by the World Food Conference in 1974.
In this regard, I am of the opinion that world food security should be ensured by helping developing countries to increase their production of basic food stuffs. Therefore, I sincerely hope that all countries in a position to do so will provide practical support and assistance to developing countries with their resources and technology.
Mr Chairman, one of the objectives of the Uruguay Round is to make agricultural trade move in the direction of liberalization, without exception. It is our firm belief that the liberalization of the agricultural market will be of benefit to both the developed and developing countries. However, we feel that, for technical, financial, and other reasons, developing countries still find themselves in a very hazardous situation with regard to trade in agricultural commodities.
As we are all aware, the majority of agricultural products from developing countries, especially from agriculturally-underdeveloped countries, are not competitive with those from developed countries. Furthermore, the demand in the traditional markets of Europe and North America for agricultural products from developing countries is close to saturation. Consequently, the agricultural export earnings of developing countries will hardly be expanded, and their agricultural sector will face serious problems if developed countries become competitors with developing countries in a completely open market for agricultural products.
For this reason, I firmly believe that the principle of differential treatment should be earnestly followed in the course of improving the terms of agricultural trade. The freezing of investments in and support to agriculture at the present level and the reduction of them applied equally to all countries would further aggravate the position of agriculture in those developing countries.
In this connection, I am of the opinion that the concept of basic foodstuffs should become a safety net since developing countries have to maintain the required domestic production level of their major crops. Because we underwent similar experiences, Korean people feel sympathetic toward the poverty-stricken countries and have a deep understanding of the problems they are presently facing: poverty, hunger, underdevelopment, and foreign debts.
We will not forget the support we received from the international community in launching certain projects, the results of which were considered quite satisfactory. In this context, I take this opportunity to reiterate our willingness to share our development experience with other developing countries to the best of our ability.
Dixon NILAWEERA (Sri Lanka): Let me join the other delegations in congratulating you on your election as Chairman of this Commission.
The document on The State of Food and Agriculture, which has now been examined, summarizes the main trends in the food and agricultural situation in 1990 and 1991. In fact, it has captured all salient points and drawn attention to major areas of concern. The Secretariat, of course, should be congratulated on its task.
My delegation would like to take this opportunity to place before this Commission the experiences we have in Sri Lanka in the field of food production and flag some disturbing trends.
We have been focusing our attention primarily on production of rice. New varieties of rice have been bred which are adaptable to our ecological conditions and are high-yielding. As a result of continuing efforts by agricultural scientists as well as the farmers, we have been able to march rapidly towards food self-reliance. I am happy to state that we are 90 percent self-sufficient in our main cereal, namely rice.
Import of this commodity has been drastically reduced as a result of this effort, but we are observing a rather disturbing trend in the production of rice. There has been a plateauing trend in rice production for the past 3 to 4 years. The gradual increase in rice production has stopped and is at the same level.
Agricultural scientists observe that this trend can continue and perhaps deteriorate within a few years, principally due to one factor: the low levels of fertilizer consumption.
The rice varieties that have been bred are highly responsive to fertilizer. Our farmers have had the experience of using this input at correct levels, but due to price escalation, the required amount of fertilizer is not being used. At present this situation has been compounded by the fact that the subsidies that were provided by the Government had to be withdrawn as part of structural adjustment policies. The impact of these will be visible within the next few years. Still, our soils are rich in nutrients as a result of the application of fertilizer in correct doses. This richness will fast disappear unless it is replenished. Gradual depletion of soil fertility will result in a significant drop in production.
In the Medium-Term Plan for the FAO which was examined in Commission II, FAO proposed to advise the major donors and agencies in regard to structural adjustment policies. I wish to emphasize that this aspect should be kept constantly in focus by FAO and support should be given to the Member Nations in sustaining their food production efforts by insulating them from factors which are-beyond their control and which are largely dictated by structural adjustment policies.
J.M. SCOTT (United Kingdom): The United Kingdom delegation read document C 91/2 with great interest and wishes to congratulate FAO for the excellent job it does in monitoring world food production and in giving early notice of trends through the Global Information and Early Warning Systems.
Table 3 in paper C 91/2 highlights a worrying trend, namely the decline in per capita food production in the developing world in 1990. As the example of Botswana shows in paras 165-179, it does not always make economic sense - or imply the best use of resources - for countries to aim to be self-sufficient in food. However, unlike Botswana some food deficit developing countries lack foreign exchange to import food and are thus dependent on food aid emanating from the surpluses produced in the developed world.
It cannot be assumed that these surpluses will continue in the longer term, as there are indications that food production in developed countries may not continue to rise - indeed, the increase in the developed world was only 0.3 percent in 1990 and food production in Western Europe declined by 0.4 percent. Environmental concerns - for example the contamination of drinking water by pesticides and nitrate - are one factor suggesting that in developed countries a shift may well take place towards lower input forms of agriculture.
In this uncertain climate it becomes even more important that food production in developing countries should increase at a rate significantly faster than population growth. In absolute terms a 2.4 percent increase in food production in developing countries in 1990 is not a poor performance; however it failed to match population growth. It is a self-evident but sometimes understated fact that per capita food availability is related to population growth as well as food production. The faster the population grows, the greater must be the increase in food production to maintain per capita food availability. Land resources are finite, and, notwithstanding technological advances, the capacity to increase food production on a sustainable basis is not unlimited.
Of particular concern is Africa, where in 1990 food production fell by 0.6 percent or by 3.7 percent on a per capita basis. There is a clear need for research into how to farm the semi-arid areas of Africa sustainably. Evidence accumulates that, given existing technology, these areas are not only at best marginal for sustainable agricultural production, but are also highly susceptible to environmental degradation. There is a need to provide a political and institutional environment which enables farmers on higher potential land to increase food production whilst a major international research effort seeks to develop technologies which allow the semi-arid areas to be brought into sustainable production.
Most of the world's productive land is already under cultivation and the potential to bring more land into agricultural production is limited. Hence, increases in global food production will depend on enhanced productivity per unit of land. For reasons already cited in the longer term the onus for this is likely to fall on developing and middle income countries.
On a more cheerful note, in Africa in 1990 there was a 25 percent increase in farmed fish production (para 107). Although the total harvest is still small this is a welcome increase, and perhaps a happier note on which to end.
Saleh Idris MUHAMMED (Tanzania): While my Head of Delegation, the Minister of Agriculture, Livestock Development and Cooperatives, will present the review of the State of Food and Agriculture in Plenary when submitting his statement, I would only comment on the statement presented in the Report C 91/2-Sup.l, Para 10 on the World Production of Roots and Tubers.
It has been stated in the Report under review that "Cassava output is anticipated to rise slightly." It has not been indicated whether the problem of the cassava mealybug has been reviewed as a serious issue in the cassava industry. In Tanzania cassava mealybug is a very serious pest and has caused a serious decline in the cassava production in the infested areas, and thus a general fall of cassava production in my country.
It is also understood that other countries, particularly in Africa, have experienced the problem of the cassava mealybug.
Although currently measures are being taken to conduct biological control against the pest in Tanzania, I would request the Secretariat to highlight its experiences on the cassava mealybug issue: how is it being observed as an issue in several cassava-producing countries.
Ali ERYILMAZ (Turkey): First of all I would like to congratulate you, Mr Chairman, and the Vice-Chairman for your election and wish you every success in your endeavours.
My delegation reviewed the State of Food and Agriculture as outlined in the relevant conference documents. It is not pleasing to see that despite the relatively favourable political framework, the overall economic environment has not improved in favour of world food and agricultural production. Likewise, due to the depressed demand there is no sizeable expansion in agricultural trade. It seems that the slowdown in the agricultural production during the last biennium is the result of two major factors, namely, unfavourable ecological conditions and mad-made catastrophes which prevented the allocation of much needed funds for food and agricultural production. However, one should not underestimate the adverse effects of the long lasting problems such as protectionism, debt servicing and inadequate levels of international assistance. Therefore, our search for measures to address the present world food and agricultural problems should give full recognition to the above factors and their combined effects on the national and regional policies. In our opinion, the present resource allocation has to be carefully analysed and weaknesses in this respect should be dealt with in order to ensure sufficient funds for the sector. Also, policies related to pricing and other supports should be formulated and implemented to ensure that farmers are encouraged to adapt and use the appropriate new technologies. It is certain that political as well as social variables play an important role in the design of these policies. However, we believe that a compromise can be reached within economic, political and social preferences.
Having said this, I will now turn briefly to the state of food and agriculture in Turkey and the recent national programmes implemented in the agricultural sector. Turkey is one of the developing countries distinguished from many others with an agricultural potential which is sufficient for domestic as well as partial foreign demand. A regular increase in yield and production levels of agricultural products has been achieved through the years. For example, a production increase of 23 percent in wheat has been achieved since 1980. The level of increase has been 47 percent in barley, 67 percent in maize, 53 percent in potatoes and 121 percent in sugar beet during the same period. Appropriate policies which have been applied in agriculture had an aggregate effect on these achievements. Production, procurement and distribution of inputs such as seeds and fertilizers have been liberalized with an emphasis on private initiatives. Also, through bilateral agreements, trade in agricultural commodities has been liberalized. In this connection I would particularly refer to our agreements with EEC and EFTA countries.
Our natiònal efforts, as well as of the other countries, have a limited impact on the overall improvement in international trade. It is unfortunate to observe that the launching of the trade liberalization efforts under the Uruguay Round have not yet resulted in satisfactory agreements and actions.
Turkey is one of the countries which was very severely affected by the Gulf crisis in 1990. Indeed, our trade with the Near East countries diminished in 1990, and still stands at an unsatisfactory level. This development has brought about restraints on the level of production due to lower prices to farmers.
In our opinion FAO and other agencies concerned should give due consideration to the various consequences of the Gulf crisis and try to expand opportunities for creating new channels for the marketing and distribution of the surplus agricultural commodities. In this connection concerted efforts are needed to enhance trade with USSR and Eastern European countries. There is indeed great interest in these countries in importing agricultural commodities from the region. However, these countries are in the process of reform and at present are unable to ensure financial means to meet their import bills. FAO can play an important role on these issues. We believe that a study should be carried out to assess the needs of these Eastern European countries, available products of potential exporting countries in the region, and to assess the financial requirements of such an intra-regional trade in the short- and medium-terms. Such a study should then be brought to the attention of potential aid, donor and financial institutions for the consideration of modalities of mutually beneficial solutions.
In conclusion, I would like to state that Turkey has a genuine interest in the achievements of other nations which are on the way to development and prosperity. Thus, we will be happy to share our experience in agriculture and free market practice with them.
Mme. Y. LANGRAND (France): Permettez-moi de vous féliciter, M. le Président, de votre élection, à la présidence de cette Commission.
M. le Président, Monsieur le Ministre de l'agriculture et de la forêt française a évoqué dans son discours la situation mondiale de l'alimentation et de l'agriculture.
Je ne ferai donc qu'un court commentaire concernant le très intéressant rapport préparé par le Secrétariat sur ce sujet pour l'année 1991.
M. le Président, la situation constatée et les efforts faits pour l'améliorer entraînent chez le lecteur deux sentiments contradictoires: le découragement et l'espoir.
Le découragement de constater que des populations entières - 4 à 5 millions de personnes en Somalie - 8 millions de personnes au Soudan - combien d'autres encore en Ethiopie, Mozambique, Angola - sont encore menacées de famine dans les années 1990 comme dans les années 1980.
Face à cette détresse quasi permanente dans certains pays, tous les moyens mis en oeuvre pour que quelques indices positifs de productivité apparaissent ont échoué. L'aide d'urgence elle-même, malgré la considérable mobilisation internationale de ces dernières années, est trop souvent en situation d'échec.
Pour, au moins, lutter contre la famine, essayons de compléter les bonnes volontés nationales, bilatérales et multilatérales par l'organisation sur place, dans chaque pays menacé, de véritables pools de coordination des apports et d'acheminement des produits.
Plaidons inlassablement pour que la notion de sécurité alimentaire soit au premier rang des préoccupations de développement des pays régulièrement en difficulté, et pour que les guerres civiles ne paralysent pas toute tentative de développement économique.
Acceptons l'idée qu'une partie du monde est favorisée par les conditions naturelles actuelles de sol et de climat, et qu'il est normal que cette partie là fournisse des produits agricoles et alimentaires à l'autre partie défavorisée, dans l'attente bien sûr des progrès réalisés concernant le développement notamment. Cette attitude réaliste permettrait de ne pas considérer comme souhaitable la stérilisation trop rapide des capacités de production agricole là où cette production peut être abondante, car il y a un véritable danger international, dont il faut bien prendre conscience, dans le découragement des producteurs des pays dits développés.
Ne cultivons pas le paradoxe de l'inquiétude affichée devant le recul de la production agricole mondiale certaines années, et la condamnation répétée de ceux qui produisent les millions de tonnes nécessaires à la sécurité alimentaire mondiale. Essayons plutôt de trouver les moyens d'une solidarité mieux organisée qu'elle ne l'est aujourd'hui.
C'est là qu'il faut porter aujourd'hui quotidiennement l'effort, ce qui n'empêche pas, bien au contraire et simultanément d'aider au développement et d'améliorer les échanges, pour obtenir un meilleur équilibre économique mondial.
Et maintenant l'espoir - car il y a aussi de la place pour l'espoir dans le rapport du Secrétariat sur la situation mondiale de l'alimentation et de l'agriculture en 1991.
Les notes d'espoir, c'est la volonté d'accès à la démocratie marquée par certains pays, c'est la lutte contre la croissance démographique qui s'amorce, aussi lorsque celle-ci met en échec toute amélioration de la productivité.
Ce sont le désengagement de l'Etat et la libéralisation des marchés constatés dans les anciennes économies planifiées d'Europe de l'Est et d'Union soviétique, mais aussi dans quelques pays d'Afrique et d'Asie.
Ce sont les progrès marqués par l'initiative individuelle et le développement participatif.
Ce sont les organisations régionales qui vont ou ont déjà donné aux pays concernés des chances nouvelles concernant l'organisation des productions et l'amélioration des échanges - c'est-à-dire le Pacte Andin - l'Union du Maghreb Arabe - c'est l'adoption en 1991 par l'Organisation de l'Union africaine d'un nouveau traité fixant un calendrier pour la création d'une communauté économique africaine, et aussi les aspects très positifs des travaux entrepris par la Conférence des ministres de l'agriculture de l'ouest et du centre de l'Afrique, qui devraient permettre à cette région du monde de construire elle-même son développement économique, car l'Afrique a des atouts pour y parvenir.
Je souhaite conclure, M. le Président, sur ce constat d'espoir, en rappelant que beaucoup d'efforts sont faits par la France - efforts déjà rappelés par le Ministre de l'agriculture et de la forêt, et qui seront précisés dans d'autres interventions - pour trouver à la fois des solutions à l'aide d'urgence et d'autres à plus long terme, pour qu'enfin le constat annuel change.
Huang YONG-NING (China) (Original language Chinese): We would first of all like to congratulate you on your election as Chairman of this Commission.
Since the last session of the Conference the world situation has become more complex, and the agriculture and food situation has changed. In general terms agriculture in many developing countries has increased. The achievements in international agriculture as developed across the broader front of different international actions have been taken so as to revitalize world agriculture, and these are now bearing fruit. More voices are now being heard for a fairer balance in rural agriculture, and a number of real advances have been made. However, we also have to look at the concrete results that have been attained thus far, and we do hope that more can be attained.
In the document from the Secretariat it indicates that over the last two years growth in agriculture has decreased, and we have even seen negative growth, which has been rather rare in recent years. Cereals stocks have not really come back to the security levels, and they have dropped again.
There are a number of obstacles to agricultural trading that remain in place. Regarding trade for a number of developing countries, the situation has been exacerbated and there are imbalances in development that are becoming more and more apparent.
The poverty of many populations under these social conditions and the burden of debt that is found in a number of developing countries has also been exacerbated. There are a number of very difficult tasks facing us here. I would like to give some of our ideas on this.
There has to be massive increase in the possibility for developing countries themselves to develop. That is a basic question. The solution to these problems depends on efforts being made on both sides. First, the developing countries themselves have to make specific efforts. To that end, we have always said that we have to adapt according to local conditions and we have to have an integrated development strategy. We have to have more farming input and we also have to take this into account when doing promotional work. It is also important that we boost international cooperation because all developed countries have to cooperate so as to develop world agriculture and to bring transparent technology and capital to developing countries which will allow them to develop in their turn. In the long term this will benefit everybody, and South-South cooperation is something that has great potential. We would advocate that we have mutual assistance schemes that are complementary and mutually beneficial so as to improve the possibility of self-reliance.
We also feel that we have to have a propitious environment for agricultural development. We believe that this is one of the most important and urgent tasks facing us at the moment. We feel that we need to have a social environment that is stable. These are the pre-conditions so that we can attain agricultural development.
We cannot neglect other economic problems, as well as social problems such as demography, debt and the social structure.
Thirdly, we feel that we have to have a fair and rational system for distribution of agricultural goods. There are a number of imbalances in agriculture today and problems of distribution are becoming more pressing regarding agricultural products. These problems are quite acute at the moment, and we feel that all countries should apply principles of equality and comparative advantage when viewing trade and agricultural goods so as not to complicate trading systems.
We also have to look at the specific conditions that pertain in certain developing countries so that we can guarantee their position in international markets. Here we would appeal for the negotiations of the Uruguay Round to come to a conclusion as quickly as possible, because agriculture has a very important role to play. We are entering the last decade of the Twentieth Century, and we hope that thanks to our efforts over the next ten years we will be able to resolve these problems that we come up against time and time again in the context of food and agriculture throughout the world in order that we may make real progress and create a better world.
Mrs Hedwig WOGERBAUER (Austria) (Original language German): Mr Chairman, perhaps you will allow me to express my congratulations to you on your election as Chairman of this Commission. I would also like to thank Dr Dutia for the very concise introduction that he gave us.
Document C 91/2 gives us a very good conspectus of the current status of food and agriculture. The graphs that are contained in this document show extremely clearly the changes that have occurred in agricultural production. We were concerned to note the production development in 1990.
Austria does not really figure in this document, and for that reason I would like to give you some supplementary information about Austrian agriculture. 1990 was a very good year for the Austrian economy. Gross domestic product grew in real terms by 4.9 percent, which meant it grew more than the GDP of Western Europe in general. But we have to say that for the years 1991-92 there is going to be a weakening of that trend. Also, in the agricultural and forestry sector 1990 was a very good year, certainly above average. The value of agricultural production and value added increased greatly. Agricultural income also developed favourably. There are a number of factors that led to this positive outcome.
There was a greater supply, agricultural prices were higher and there was not such an increase in the prices of farm inputs. There was an increase in direct payments. The final production of agriculture and forestry in 1990 was at 81.95 billion schillings, 6.3 percent higher than it had been the previous year. Gross Domestic Product was 56.2 billion schillings. This meant that it was 3.2 percent of the total economy. The share in the total economy increased by 10.2 percent. This happened after we had an extremely good year in 1989.
The number of people working on the land and in forestry has gone down. The share working in farming and forestry is 6.3 percent of all those in gainful employment. The figure for 1989 was 6.7 percent. The per capita income of full-time family farmers increased on average by 18 percent, and it went up to 165 000 Austrian schillings.
The main task of a future oriented agricultural and forestry policy is creation or improvement of the general economic condition so that farming and forestry are able to find sales outlets for high quality food and for raw materials for processing, as well as for energy sources. They have to be able to sell these at appropriate prices so that farmers can obtain a reasonable income.
What has been done by Austrian farming for food production and supply is very important. The main thing that we want to do in our policy is to give the population a diverse and secure offering of food at reasonable prices. Of course, people are now more aware of their health, people are changing their eating habits and asking more and more for high quality and branded goods. These have impinged considerably on the Austrian market.
The medium-term international agricultural situation and the current calls for income from domestic agriculture, particularly in the areas of cereals, dairy production and meat, means that we are going to have to tailor production to domestic requirements. We are also going to have to diversify
as well, so that we can find an alternative in animal production and in the plant area in order that we may get rid of the surpluses in cereals and give some relief to the milk market. That is a policy that we are going to pursue in the future.
If you look at the total area under production at the moment, 10 percent is now in alternative crops, mainly oilseed rape, sunflowers and pulses. In future years about 20 percent of the area under cultivation, that is to say, 300 000 hectares will planted with alternative crops.
We have not only revised the laws pertaining to agricultural markets in 1991, we also have made sure that our policies are catered to our final needs and goals. Here, for example, there has been something of a drop in cereal prices this summer. This led to some protests by farmers. The task of farming to produce food and primary goods can only be guaranteed in the long term if we take account of the environment. In order that we can maintain production in the long term it is important that we actually shoulder responsibility for the environment, because we have to protect the environment and the soil. We also must look at sustainable agriculture so that we can protect resources such as groundwater and soil. We have to protect the biotope and give high priority to viral protection.
I would like to say that in 1989 Austria submitted an application for membership of the European Community. In its response to this request the European Commission in August 1991 stated that in this connection agriculture would not present any insurmountable obstacle.
Finally, I would like to point out that Austria believes that document C 91/2 is very important and we will certainly in the future attempt to provide all information and data that FAO needs regarding Austrian agriculture. We do hope that the data we give you can be reflected in the appropriate FAO documents.
Russell MULELE (Zambia): I thank you for the opportunity to enable me to contribute briefly to this debate. It is very sad to note that the food supply position has not improved significantly recently. While the overall world food production increased by 2 percent, sadly production in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean still remained below the population growth. Production estimates for 1991 indicate even a worse picture or position in a number of African countries where production is predicted to decline by as much as 12 percent.
Several factors which can be attributed to the low increase (if any at all) in food production, especially in the developing countries, include the Gulf crisis, the impact of political changes and the debt burden faced by all of the developing countries. Needless to say, the major implications of these problems have manifested themselves in the rising cost of living, extreme poverty and food shortages - especially among the low income group.
There is no doubt that the impact of galloping inflation has to a large extent resulted in the failure by governments in the developing countries to maintain and rehabilitate the infrastructure so necessary for agricultural production. This situation has, for sure, militated against efforts to achieve food security in developing countries.
My delegation wishes to propose that certain measures be taken by the international community in order to complement and supplement the efforts of developing countries. These include: (i) the continuation of cancelling debts owed by developing countries; (ii) revision of financial lending conditions in view of the changing political climate and increased lending to agricultural projects; (iii) increasing food aid as a short-term measure based on triangular transactions; (iv) supporting plans and projects for irrigated agriculture by donors. This should provide a long-term solution to the drought conditions prevalent in most of the African countries. Least but not last, we want to see donors paying more attention to the issues related to environment. Here again, we want to call for enhanced donor support to projects and programmes aimed at increasing food production while conserving the environment.
Lastly but certainly not the least, my delegation wishes to thank Mr Dutia for his lucid introduction of the document which we are now discussing. Special thanks should go to the Secretariat for the high quality of this document.
Mrs Ljiljana VELASEVIC (Yugoslavia): Let me take the opportunity to congratulate you on your election as Chairman of Commission 1.
The world food and agricultural situation is on the agenda of every FAO session, and it should be on it as long as outstanding problems in this field persist. I am afraid, however, that this item will remain on the agenda for many years to come.
On this occasion as well I would like to point out the quality of the document prepared for this item of the agenda. Documents C 91/2 and C 91/2 - Sup.1 offer a clear picture of the present situation with regard to production, consumption, stocks and levels of international prices of a large number of agricultural products. In various regions and countries furthermore, the document describes current developments and contains comparisons with the previous year. However, the agricultural situation in Yugoslavia has not been elaborated enough in this paper. I mention my country because in part K of the document C 91/2 the agricultural situation in all the other Central and Eastern European countries were well elaborated. That is the reason why I will take this opportunity to say a few words about the situation in Yugoslavia.
Like most Central and Eastern European countries, several years ago Yugoslavia initiated a process of fundamental political, economic and social reforms. The most radical reforms were launched in the agricultural sector, with a view to ensuring food security and strengthening the economic efficiency of agriculture. As regards the economic system, the domestic market and foreign trade were liberalized and an institutional basis for ownership transformation was established. Various measures were taken to provide production incentives and protection to farmers. As a result, new enterprises could be set up on the basis of private, cooperative or mixed ownership. At the same time, the process started of structural adjustment in agricultural production, generally in accordance with market principles and consumers demands. However, at the point when the new agricultural policy- yielded the first significant results, the
consequences of the general crisis of the system began to be felt, which, unfortunately, threaten to undermine all the efforts and sacrifices made in order to implement the reform, amid social and political tensions, and put the economy on a path of growth and development. At a time when war is raging in Yugoslavia, the paradox is that our country will have a bumper wheat and maize crop. Food production is, unfortunately, the only field where growth has been registered, which will undoubtedly be of great political and social importance.
This Twenty-sixth Conference has been convened at a time when deep and far-reaching changes are taking place on the international scene resulting in significantly different relations among world political forces. Certainly the Eastern European countries are striving to establish market economies and strengthen democracy through radical transformation.
Apart from these countries many developing countries have also embarked upon economic reforms, very often in a rather uncertain global environment. For these reforms to succeed stable world economy growth is essential, implying also the resolution of the problems these countries are facing such as external debts, development, financing, transfer of technology, poverty, famine, governmental protection, etc. If these problems are not solved in an adequate manner the situation might deteriorate and lessen the prospects of economic recovery and development. Famine and malnutrition remain one of the acutest problems of our time.
Although agricultural production has been improved somewhat by 2 percent the situation is still critical in a large number of African countries. The problem of the disproportion between food production and consumption, the resolution of which is one of the basic pre-conditions for food security in the world has not been solved yet. While on the one hand the developed countries have a surplus of agricultural and food products and undertake various measures to limit the growth of production, developing countries on the other hand encumbered by their external bad debts, the low prices of their exports, trade barriers and various protection measures struggle to survive.
I would like to stress on this occasion also the importance of the Uruguay Round and the need to conclude the negotiations successfully. After the standstill in the negotiations last year in Brussels, we expected them to be possibly concluded successfully by the end of this year or the beginning of next. Even that is uncertain now.
We would like to remind you of the basic goals of the GATT negotiations in agriculture. I will not quote them but I would like to stress that if these goals are not achieved no economic recovery is to be expected in the medium or long term, nor will the purchasing power of the heavily indebted countries improve. Associated with this is also the possibility of regular debt servicing; if this requirement is not met, the current over-indebtedness, the economic and social crisis, and the gap between the developed and the undeveloped will continue to grow to the detriment of the less developed, and at the highest rates ever, over the past decades.
I will not speak of Yugoslavia's participation in the negotiations nor about our attitudes. I only-want to underline in fact that there are some opposite views on some key issues of the negotiations on agriculture, mostly as a result of different levels of agricultural development of
various countries, at a time when we all call for the global development of the agriculture food security as well as the eradication of famine in the world. The often inflexible position of some countries or economic integrations cannot be justified. We therefore believe that the agriculturists of the world united within the FAO should find adequate and workable solutions in order to speed up the negotiations of the GATT Uruguay Round and to contribute to their successful conclusion. In this connection I would like to remind you of the message of the Minister of Agriculture who participated in the session of the World Food Council in Copenhagen in June this year.
Finally, as the elimination of famine and malnutrition and the increase of overall world food security are our common objectives the Yugoslavian delegation requests FAO to be more extensively involved in the Uruguay Round Negotiations, especially in defining elements for the special and more favourable treatment of developing countries, in strengthening market discipline and promoting foreign trade.
Rolf AKESSON (Sweden): In compliance with your request that we try to improve our efficiency by avoiding a repetition of arguments and views expressed by previous speakers I will refrain from all my comments, all but two more specific ones.
The first one concerns global food security. Here the indicator for cereal stocks and the 17-18 percent benchmark for safe stock levels plays a central role in the monitoring of the global food security situation which is a basic task for the FAO, and it is of course used also in the comprehensive and in many respects impressive document for this item, although we share the view expressed by Denmark that it should be much more policy oriented. During years there has been scepticism expressed about the validity of the stocks indicator. There are several reasons for this. Firstly global stock figures are highly uncertain and information are missing for major countries. Secondly the relative size of working stocks vary widely between countries and even in countries through time. Thirdly the reserve stock element is no more than guesswork or a committee product and the implication that higher stocks means a higher degree of food security is far from obvious since rising stocks normally are associated with lower prices which reduce incentives for production and profitability which in turn tends to reduce rather than increase food security.
For these and some other reasons, members have been reluctant to endorse the 17-18 percent stocks indicator. It was decided that it should only be used in connection with several other indicators and that it should be made clear that it was not agreed by FAO Members but rather that it was a Secretariat opinion. Unfortunately, the global-stocks-to-consumption ratio has received undue attention in conventional assessments, in particular in the public debate and in news coverage. This has led to misconceptions and confusion and it is of no significance whether or not the original source of information is more circumspect and complex. The 17-18 percent benchmark or limit has during recent years been unkindly treated by reality since it has become more and more obvious that the working stocks element, which is around 12-13 percent of the total, is well above what is required. In this connection, I would like to-quote a most knowledgeable and respected expert
from the International Wheat Council who last summer concluded that "Trends over several recent seasons suggest that the world grain market could operate with a lower level of stocks in the major exporting countries than had once been thought safe."
In view of these facts, a continuation of traditional analysis would be unfortunate and affect the usefulness of FAO's analysis in general and the confidence in its judgements. We would therefore support an urgent and thorough reexamination of the stocking indicator and its use.
My second comment also concerns the vital task of monitoring of food security. The traditional FAO analysis has covered production, trade, food aid and stocks, and done so with increasing accuracy and coverage regarding the number of commodities and the number of countries.
But it is by now well known that this is not enough for an adequate assessment. The biggest and most fatal declines in food security in our times were in fact not associated with any particular shortage of food in the sense of an abnormal decline in per capita production or availability, neither nationally nor globally. Instead, the drop in food security and the resulting famines were caused by a rapid decline in purchasing power of the poorest and most vulnerable groups. This, in turn, was the result of declines in real income, employment rates or increases in prices of necessities such as food and fuel. The opposite, fortunately, is also true, since we have several examples, in particular from India and Africa, of large, drastic declines of food production and availabilities that did not give rise to famine or severe hardship. In short this means that a conventional assessment based only or mainly on food availabilities may very well indicate a crisis in an area where there is no real threat to food security, while at the same time a famine is approaching silently in another part of the world.
So it was rather encouraging to note at meetings earlier this year that there was wide interest in, and large support for, an improvement of the conventional analysis, with more emphasis on access to food and food entitlements. It was also encouraging to learn that the Secretariat, in fact, has been making efforts along those lines, although so far with limited success. On this occasion we want to reiterate our strongly felt view on the need for improvements in this respect. In spite of the lack of indications of response from the Secretariat in this overview document, and in the proposed Programme of Work, we look forward to a comprehensive discussion in accordance with the agreement reached when the issue was discussed earlier this year.
Thank you very much for your attention.
Sra. Concha Marina RAMIREZ DE LOPEZ (Honduras): Mi delegación, señor Presidente, desea felicitarle y agradece también a la Secretaria la presentación de un documento tan interesante y claro.
Desearíamos agregar también al documento la información referente a la subregión de Centroamérica. En fechas muy recientes, los países de Centroamérica y Panamá han venido confirmando la trascendencia de los conceptos de la economía de mercado experimentando una verdadera ola de
revisión y reforma económica y profunda. A todo lo largo y ancho de la región hay inquietud y búsqueda de nuevas soluciones. Las recetas del pasado no dieron los frutos esperados y ya no son fácilmente aceptados.
Indudablemente, parte de esta efervescencia y cuestionamiento en materia de politica económica ha sido provocada por el vuelco histórico dado a nivel mundial en los últimos años. En particular, hemos sentido las reverberaciones de tres cambios fundamentales en el exterior: uno, la apertura decisiva de políticas económicas hacia el mercado; dos, el resurgimiento de bloques internacionales de comercio, a la vez que se continúan los esfuerzos por abatir las barreras al comercio libre a nivel mundial; y tres, el predominio de los programas de ajuste estructural en los esquemas de las entidades internacionales de apoyo al desarrollo.
Empero, no habría que subestimar la importancia de factores autóctonos en este proceso de repreguntar y replantear los enfoques básicos de nuestras políticas económicas. El estancamiento económico de los años 80, en una región todavía caracterizada por una alta incidencia de pobreza, dio lugar a un gran descontento por los efectos del desempeño de los modelos económicos anteriores y a una nueva determinación de encontrar soluciones nuevas que permitieran la realización de la amplia potencialidad de la región.
Para mencionar solamente el ejemplo de mi país, Honduras, los integrantes del Gobierno llegaron a tomar posesión de sus cargos con principios y programas económicos ya formulados en sus aspectos esenciales, y sólo después del inicio de los programas se acudió a los entes de financiamiento internacional para solicitar su participación en la enorme tarea de ejecutar las reformas que se consideraron necesarias.
Ha habido una franca frustración ante la lentitud del desarrollo económico durante la última década, así como ante la persistencia de hondos problemas sociales y económicos. Todavía en ocasiones nos desalienta el paso lento del mejoramiento económico y social, debido a la urgencia de nuestras necesidades; pero hay optimismo porque sentimos que estamos en el rumbo correcto; que, al fin y al cabo, hemos encontrado el sendero más adecuado y lo único que tenemos que hacer ahora es redoblar esfuerzos para que ello nos conduzca al destino deseado.
Concretamente, a raíz del desenvolvimiento de estos eventos, en todos nuestros países ha habido dos evoluciones importantes: un impulso acelerado hacia la integración regional, sobre todo en el sector agrícola; y, a nivel de cada país, un replanteamiento, comprensivo, en algunos casos, de las estrategias de desarrollo agrícola y manejo de los recursos naturales.
Durante el mes de julio del presente año los Presidentes Constitucionales de la Región aprobaron el Plan de Acción Agrícola de Centroamérica. El PAC es un documento de avanzada; exige no solamente la eliminación de las barreras intrarregionales al libre comercio de productos agrícolas, sino que también la armonización de las políticas cambiarías y arancelarias, la eliminación de los controles de precios y la coordinación de las políticas de fomento de exportaciones y de mercadeo agrícola. Es un conjunto de medidas ineludiblemente vinculadas entre sí. Para quealgunade ellas adquiera operatividad, es necesario que se ejecuten las demás.
El PAC coloca en la vanguardia de la integración regional al sector agricola. Su objetivo es nada menos que crear un mercado común para los productos agrícolas y llevar a cabo los pasos consecuentes para hacer consistentes las políticas agrícolas nacionales con las de la región en un conjunto.
Por último, nuestro ámbito de preocupación se relaciona con la política diferenciada de algunos países con respecto a nuestra región. Para sostener nuestro desarrollo, los países de nuestra área reclamamos un acceso igualitario a los mercados mundiales y un acceso sin privilegios en cuanto a la cooperación internacional. Por ello, los invitamos a no plantear enfoques de cooperación que favorecen divisiones en un mundo ya demasiado fragmentado. Abogamos por la uniformidad, la transparencia y la solidaridad como principios para llegar a un desarrollo económico favorable a todos.
Deddy SUDARMAN (Indonesia): Let me begin by expressing the Indonesian delegation's appreciation to the Secretariat of FAO for their informative reports contained in document C 91/2 and C 91/2-Sup.1 on the world food and agricultural situation now before us. May I also express our sincere thanks to Mr Dutia for his comprehensive and lucid introduction to this report.
As to food and agriculture, the paradox continues. While the world is producing more food than ever before, hunger and malnutrition continue to rise. In human terms, there is a tragic rise in the number of people who go hungry, especially in a large number of developing countries. This untenable trend is an indictment of our times. Without special efforts, the fight against hunger may become more difficult in many parts of the world in the years to come.
Therefore, Indonesia fully supports the FAO's programmes and activities which give top priority to food problems and, in this context, FAO should be able to identify a realistic and potentially new initiative to eradicate hunger and malnutrition, as environmental degradation, poverty and deprivation lie at the heart of the hunger problem.
The current and prospective medium-term economic situation is not conducive to the efforts of Third World countries to fight hunger. Many of these countries were caught in the struggle with chronic difficulties of heavy debt, high inflation, deterioration of terms of trade and low food production growth. Commodities, which have long constituted the staple export earnings of many developing countries but are now languishing in a prolonged slump, demand our urgent attention. The current protectionism in agricultural trade was the cause of great economic inefficiency. Agricultural trade liberalization is in the long-term interest of all countries as it will contribute to more efficient and stronger economies and help strengthen food security in the long run. Therefore, Indonesia calls for a speedy and successful conclusion of the Uruguay Round talks.
In conclusion, if the fundamental and universal human right to food is to be effectively defended, the international community should take determined action to promote self-sufficiency in food. What remains to be done is to mobilize political determination and financial and human resources to translate the global consensus on hunger alleviation goals into effective policies and programmes.
Hans-Dietrich VON BOTHMER (Germany) (Original language German): My delegation would also like to congratulate, Mr Chairman, on your election.
Perhaps you would allow me, as a preface to my statement, to say something about the preparations for this Conference and for the work in this Commission.
My feeling is that the effectiveness of the work done by this Commission would be enhanced if documents were received in good time. The most recent documents were only received by us a few days ago, despite the fact that we are quite close to Rome. How is it, then, for those countries who are further away from Rome? Perhaps they will get the documents in time for Christmas !
We basically agree with the Report by FAO on the State of Food and Agriculture. As tradition has it, it is a series of very interesting statements which are also of interest and significance to us in Germany.
In connection with the development of international agricultural trade, I would like to refer specifically to the role of Germany as an international trading partner for agriculture. Total imports from developing countries before German Unification in October 1990 - this is excluding the Asian State trading countries and Cuba - were in 1990 vis-à-vis the previous year, 6.3 percent higher at DM 66.2 billion. Exports from Germany to developing countries grew by 5.4 percent to DM 64.9 billion. This meant that there was an import surplus of DM 1.3 billion in 1990, and in the previous year this surplus has been but DM 0.7 billion.
Looking at agricultural goods: In 1990 imports had dropped by 7.5 percent to DM 10.9 billion, and exports to developing countries reduced by 5.8 percent to DM 2.55 billion. The traditionally high agricultural trading deficit run by the Federal Republic with developing countries was reduced from DM 9.1 billion in 1989 to DM 8.4 billion in 1990. In the first half of this year, 1991, Germany has imported agricultural goods from developing countries to a value of DM 6 billion. Exports for that period were DM 1.5 billion.
In spite of the fact that we give a generally positive welcome to document C 91/2, I would like to point out that there has been a misinterpretation regarding statements made about the cocoa market. The statement is that the volume of cocoa exported by developing countries has fallen: the opposite is true. Regarding volume, cocoa-producer countries were able to improve their position. Cocoa bean exports only increased marginally from 1.72 million tons in 1989 to 1.76 million tons in 1990 but there has been no marked drop. It might have been possible therefore to have been a decrease at the level of first processing, but if you look at the exports of all cocoa products of the first stage of production there has fortunately been an increase in volume. We are particularly pleased to see this, because this shows that developing countries are in a better position to improve their situation with semi-finished goods which, of course, means that they can earn more.
What is said about development of cocoa prices does not correspond to fact. Contrary to what it says in- the document, the prices for 1990 were lower than those for 1989. It would not be possible for any other development to have taken place, given the increase in surpluses and stocks.
I would like to thank the Secretariat for the section contained in this document about the impact of agriculture on post-German unification. Here, I would like to say two things, because the figures are not quite right. In paragraph 326 on page 90, reference is made to the milk quota as being about 7 million tons. This does not refer to current production - this refers to milk production for 1989. In paragraph reference is made to 600 000 hectares, but that is an underestimate - in fact, 700 000 hectares have been set aside. That therefore amounts to 13 percent of arable areas.
Kiyoshi SAWADA (Japan) : As this is the first time my delegation has taken the floor, I would like to extend our congratulations to you, Mr Chairman, on your election. I would also like to extend our compliments to the Secretariat for their well-prepared document, as well as our appreciation of the lucid introduction given by Dr Dutia.
My country has a great interest in stable food supply and demand, as the largest net food importer in the world. To achieve stabilization of world food supply and demand, my country deems that every effort should be made continuously by every nation in the world towards this goal.
While the performance of world cereal production was good in 1990, in 1991 it is estimated to be down by 3 percent on the previous year, as mentioned in the supplementary paper from the Secretariat. Consequently, the global cereal carryover at the end of 1990-91 is estimated to be less than 300 million tons, which is about 17 percent or 18 percent of annual world consumption volume. That is the level which FAO feels to be the minimum amount of world food security. Furthermore, food aid in cereals is estimated at 10 million tons more or less, which is 10 percent down from the previous year. Nevertheless the state of hunger and poverty in the sub-Sahara has been serious.
Even in the long perspective, I dare to say that we seem to have many destabilizing factors, such as the effect of climate changes, including global warming, on agricultural production, as well as steady factors of increasing food demand from the population, and an increase in per capita consumption. We should never stop our continuing struggle against hunger, and should support those countries that take on the development of agriculture.
My Government particularly appreciates FAO's effort to resolve the world food and agricultural programmes, and fully supports FAO's activities. My country has contributed food aid, mainly through triangular transactions, but I dare to say that food aid is an emergency measure to support food-deficit countries. We have to cure the chronic structural problem of agriculture. My country has made efforts along this line to support developing countries in their agricultural development through multilateral and bilateral cooperation. In this connection, we sincerely wish success to the GATT Uruguay Round Negotiations to substantially support agriculture in developing countries. We have advocated that export subsidies hinder the development of agriculture in developing countries. The environmental issue has become a common threat to the life of human beings and the flora and fauna in our world, and it is especially a threat to the activities of the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, which depend on natural
environment. It is necessary that each country make an effort to establish sustainable agriculture through the utilization of nature's various functions, and the preservation of its own natural environment. We consider it important to preserve the global environment for the future, and that this measure should be taken as a basic agricultural policy, and not disturbed by trade issues. We consider that it is a basic issue for each country to develop its own characteristic agricultural system, harmonizing the global environment in order to secure basic foodstuffs.
My Government confidently anticipates FAO's initiative to address and preserve the programmes on food and agriculture.
Moussa TRAORE (Mali): Je remercie tout d'abord le Secrétariat pour la qualité du document présenté sur les grandes tendances de l'évolution agricole. Néanmoins, j'ai deux petites observations à faire. Comme l'a dit le représentant du Danemark, il serait effectivement bon de rapprocher, sinon d'intégrer, le document, "Ajustement structurel et agricole" au document présenté, ce qui nous permettrait de mieux cerner les raisons de la stagnation agricole. Parmi les causes de la stagnation je crois qu'en dehors du climat, il faut insister sur le rapport des prix aux producteurs et sur les prix des intrants.
Je pense que nous reviendrons largement sur ce point demain ou après -demain.
Praphas WEERAPAT (Thailand): My delegation is very glad to congratulate you, Mr Chairman, on being elected to chair this Commission.
With regard to document C 91/2-Sup.l we would like to inform this meeting that our cereal production recovered from the pest-stricken harvests of 1990 because we were able to control the pests, the brown plant hopper and the ragged stunt virus disease as a result of having a new resistant rice variety. We were able to do this in the later part of 1990. However, in the early stages of the 1991 rice-growing season, we still faced drought in the rice-growing areas, but later in September we benefited from heavy rain.
Although Thailand is a surplus rice-producing country, our policy is still to continue to grow rice, and we have adopted food security as an important programme. From our experience in Thailand, food security should not depend only on food stocks, but also on the availability of materials for replanting after the crops are damaged by disasters such as drought or flooding. That being the case, we think that the preservation of planting materials for emergency use must be part of the programme of food security.
Ms Carol J. KRAMER (United States of America): My delegation would like to congratulate you, Mr Chairman, on your election to this important Chair, and to thank Mr Dutia for his introductory remarks. We would also commend the Secretariat for its comprehensive, generally accurate and well-balanced treatment of the world food and agricultural situation, in the papers offered for review. We have a few comments to make, and would like to offer some information regarding the cereal situation.
The United States Department of Agriculture's October estimates agree with those found in paragraph 8 of the supplement C 91/2-Sup.l which forecasts a decline in world grain production in 1991-92. In fact, the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts total grain production to be nearly two percentage points lower than does FAO, with the decline in both wheat and coarse grains each about one percentage point larger. USDA and the Secretariat also agree on the general magnitude of the forecast decline in grain stocks during 1991-92, although the absolute level of stocks estimated by the USDA is a little higher. FAO characterizes the forecast level of stocks to be the lowest since 1983-84, found in paragraph 21. But the United States Department of Agriculture reports lower stocks at the end of 1989-90, and about the same as the level at the end 1988-89. FAO estimates that the ratio of stocks - and these are presumably beginning stocks - to trend utilization during 1992-93, "would be at or below the 17-18 percent range that the FAO Secretariat considers to be the minimum necessary to safeguard world food security".
The Unitèd States’ very preliminary estimate of the ratio of ending stocks to cereals use in 1991-92 puts this figure somewhat higher, at 18.4 percent. While our own estimates of changes in the levels of cereals production and stocks in 1991-92 roughly corresponds to those of the Secretariat, we do find it difficult to evaluate the estimate of the Secretariat of the ratio of stocks to utilization during 1992-93. This difficulty is due to the absence of estimates by the Secretariat either of cereals utilization for 1991-92 or of projected trend utilization in 1992-93, as referred to in paragraph 21 of the supplement.
The United States delegation would like to recommend, that in view of the frequent references to this ratio of stocks to utilization, that the Secretariat should routinely provide the Conference and the Council meetings discussing the current cereals situation with a supply distribution table presenting the usual categories dealing with stocks, production, net trade and utilization from which the ratio is derived. In addition, when trend values are used, we would find it appropriate to explain the calculations. We would also like to see such data disaggregated to at least the level of wheat, rice and coarse grains.
Incidentally, we believe there is some inconsistency in how the ratio is specified in various FAO sources with beginning stocks used in some cases and ending stocks in others. Further to this point, the United States would support the line of thinking expressed by the delegate of Sweden regarding the potential pitfalls of placing too much emphasis on a single measure. He also pointed out the critical importance of access and entitlements for food. We find it very useful that the Secretariat is now disaggregating some of the data into developed and developing country categories.
My delegation would like to provide a little new information on the United States grain situation for the other delegates. It is based on estimates produced by the Economic Research Service of the Department of Agriculture. United States wheat production is now estimated to be down almost 28 percent in 1991-92 from the previous year's near-record high. The increase in the amount of land required to be idled under our wheat support programme and low wheat prices reduced plantings almost 10 percent, while adverse weather meant more wheat was grazed and helped reduce yields by
about 13 percent. Domestic use of wheat, including that for feeding livestock, is expected to fall about 9 percent. We expect our wheat exports will rise about 3 percent. Year-end wheat stocks are expected to fall almost 40 percent to about 14.5 metric tons, a little below the level at the end of 1989-90. Despite the reduced supplies, wheat prices averaged only about US$92 per metric ton in June/July, with the average forecast to rise to the US$99-107 range by the end of the marketing year.
For the 1992 crop, 5 percent of a farmer's wheat programme acreage must be idled under the Acreage Reduction Programme in the United States to be eligible for Programme benefits, compared with 20 percent in 1991.
Despite an increase in planted area, poor weather is forecast to reduce United States' production of coarse grains by almost 6 percent in 1991-92. A smaller corn crop is responsible for all but half a million tons of the 12 million tons reduction. Supplies of coarse grains were projected to reach the lowest level since 1983-84, but domestic use is forecast to rise slightly! We expect our exports of coarse grains to fall about 6 percent to a little under 49 million metric tons. Coarse grains stocks are forecast to fall 20 percent during 1991-92 to a little over 38 million metric tons. Corti prices for 1991-92 are projected to range between an average of about US$82-104 per metric ton. For the 1992 corn crop, a preliminary Acreage Reserve Programme requirement of 5 percent has been established, which is 2.5 percent lower than in 1992.
Despite poor weather, United States' soy bean production in 1991-92 is forecast to rise about 3 percent thanks to a nearly 4 percent increase in planted area. Nevertheless, soy bean supplies are forecast to be only slightly smaller than in 1990-91, while crushings of soy beans are expected to reach a record high, and exports of soy beans and soy bean meal to increase.
I would like to make a small comment about the United States Farm Bill as described in paragraphs 299 to 301 of document C 91/2. This section summarizes selectively but faithfully the longer summary prepared by USDA's Economic Research Service at the request of the Secretariat of how the major provisions of the United States 1990 Farm Bill operate. The United States delegation would now like to comment on the following items.
Regarding fast-track authority, paragraph 301 speaks of United States Presidential authority terminating for taking certain actions should the failure of the United States by 30 June 1992 to enter into a Uruguay Round agricultural agreement result from the unavailability of fast-track authority. We wish to remind delegates here that such authority has been extended to June 1993.
With reference to the United States Grain Reserve Policy, paragraph 301 describes the renewal of the four-million-ton United States Food Security Wheat Reserve designed to back up United States food aid commitments. Our delegation wishes to remind other delegates present here that the United States Farmer-Owned Reserve was also reauthorized by our 1990 Farm Bill.
Turning to food aid, my delegation wishes to provide the following information on the status of the United States fiscal 1992 appropriation for food aid. The Agricultural Appropriation Bill for the fiscal year 1992,
awaiting signature by the President, supports a programme level of US$1 607 million for the Food for Peace Programme compared with an estimated US$1 576 million in 1991. The programme level is US$564 million for Title I credit sales, US$710 million for Title II commodities for donat ion abroad, and US$334 million for Title III government-to-government commodity grants. This concludes our intervention.
Paulo Estivallet DE MESQUITA (Brazil): Mr. Chairman, please allow me to start by congratulating you on your election. We wish you success in the conduct of business. I also wish to thank Mr Dutia and to congratulate him for the excellent background documents.
The President of the Inter-American Development Bank defined the 1980s as a lost decade for development in Latin America and the Caribbean. It was certainly not lost in terms of the political evolution of the region. However, the economic crisis, despite some favourable signs, is not over yet and continues to present a challenge to the consolidation of democracy. In fact, the restoration of political rights must be followed within a reasonable span of time by the extension of economic and social rights. This has proved an elusive goal for the whole region.
The encouraging economic performance in some countries often reflects the mere fact that economic and social indicators have fallen so far that they have had no where to go but up. In any case, the results are still far below what could reasonably be expected in view of the intensity of the adjustment effort undertaken across the region. These disappointing results are mostly due to an overall hostile international economic environment.
The figures on the evolution of the terms of trade of developing countries are eloquent in this respect. Table 6 of the Supplement C 91/2 gives an idea of the extent to which our efforts have been defeated by the depressing effect of international financial and trade constraints. Of the two, it would seem that trade distortions have had the largest impact. In fact, the lack of response of export prices of agricultural commodities to the marked reduction in interest rates in 1991 appears to indicate a rigidity in international agricultural markets that can only be ascribed to large-scale interventionism.
Brazil has suffered dearly from subsidies and protectionism in its export markets for more products than I care to mention. I wish the Secretariat could give us its views on the relative importance of interest rates and import restrictions on the determination of commodity prices.
World food security cannot be achieved within the current structure of international trade in agricultural products. Stability in the two largest markets, Western Europe and North America, have been achieved at the cost of much increased volatility in international markets. Incapable of competing with the treasure chest of the major industrialized countries, developing countries have grown accustomed to seeing their production subject to a staccato rhythm increasing and decreasing in response to widely fluctuating prices. The resulting concentration of production and stocks in the developed countries effectively impedes the achievement of food security at the global- level. The indicators of world food security should be reviewed to take into account the excessive dependence on a limited number of crops produced in a relatively small area. A major crop
failure due to adverse weather in the United States or in Europe could, for instance, probably bring world stocks to a level well below that recommended by the FAO Secretariat.
As stated by the Minister of Agriculture in the Plenary, Brazil is bracing itself for a harvest of what we hope will be a record crop. We need, however, to have reliable access to external markets if we are to sustain our increased production in the coming years. Therefore, we attach the highest importance to a successful conclusion of the Uruguay Round. We hope that the FAO Conference will send a loud and clear message to that effect.
The meeting rose at 18.00 hours.
La Séance est levée à 18 heures.
Se levanta la sesión a las 18.00 horas.
