SOUTH AFRICA (18 May)
The third estimate of total maize harvest of 2003/04 main agricultural season by the country’s Crop Estimation Committee (CEC), has upgraded its previous estimate to a total of 7.9 million metric tonnes. This is still nearly 20 percent below the total harvest of the previous season primarily due to the effects of the worst drought in ten years in seven out of nine provinces. The drought is said to have affected as many as 15 million people. Maize plantings this season were down by about 18 percent compared to the year before. Production of white maize is forecast at 4.8 million tonnes compared to 6.6 million tonnes last year. This would translate into an exportable surplus of white maize in 2004/05 of about 1.6 million tonnes available to countries in the sub-region, while maintaining about 545 000 tonnes of South Africa’s own desired level of stocks. It is also important to note that as of 1 March 2004, the SAFEX price of white maize was 38 percent higher than it was at the beginning of March 2003. According to some reports in early February, real maize prices in South Africa have jumped by about half since 1 December and have more than doubled since the post-harvest low in April 2003. However, maize prices declined in early March with improved rains.
The winter wheat crop harvested in December 2003 is estimated at 1.43 million tonnes, almost 38 percent below the previous year’s harvest.