UNITED STATES (13 May)
The latest USDA Crop Production report in early May forecast the wheat output in 2004 at 56.6 million tonnes, 11 percent down from last year’s crop but about the average of the past five years. In addition to a 3 percent decline in the area sown to winter wheat, the condition of crops during the current season has remained consistently below the previous season because of persisting dry conditions in parts of the Southern Plains. As of 9 May, the portion of the winter wheat crop rated good to excellent was 45 percent, 7 percentage points below a year earlier. Regarding the spring wheat crop, which is still being planted in some parts, the USDA Prospective Plantings report at the end of March indicated declines in the spring wheat and durum areas of 4 percent and 5 percent respectively. Planting was reported to be 84 percent complete by 9 May, 17 percentage points ahead of the previous year’s pace and 26 percentage points ahead of the average for the same date.
Above-normal temperatures and dry condition across the Corn Belt in early April encouraged rapid planting of the summer coarse grain crops. By 9 May, 84 percent of the expected maize area had been planted, 22 percentage points ahead of a year earlier and 21 percentage points ahead of the average for the same date. The generally satisfactory planting conditions for the summer crops prompted a significant increase in the production forecast in the USDA May Crop Production report. Maize output in 2004 is now forecast to reach 264.8 million tonnes, 3 percent above the previous year’s crop and almost 9 percent above the average of the past five years.