MALAWI* (6 June)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in April-May 2005 estimated the 2005 production of maize, Malawi’s most important staple crop, at 1.25 million tonnes, the lowest in a decade and some 26 percent below last year’s relatively poor harvest. Aggregate harvest of the important root and tuber crops, estimated at 3.8 million tonnes, is also some 9 percent down on last year’s poor harvest and 15 percent below the five-year average. Early and above average rains had led to optimism for a good crop, but hopes were dashed when rains failed at a critical time when the maize crop was at the stage of cob formation and pollination in late January and the whole of February.
Market prices for the main staple, maize, in May on average were higher than the same period in past two years, reflecting the current poor harvest, especially in the south. Better than average maize production in neighbouring northern Mozambique would imply more formal and informal imports into Malawi. This trade should be mutually beneficial and would stabilize prices in both countries. Total commercial maize import is forecast at about 300 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of 434 000 tonnes.
The Malawi VAC estimates that a total of 4.22 million people, or over 34 percent of the national population have insufficient production or income to meet their minimum food requirements and will require assistance in food or cash amounting to about 270 000 tonnes in maize equivalent during the 2005/06 April/March marketing year. The number in need of assistance could increase to 4.61 million if maize prices rise sharply.