SOUTH AFRICA (6 June)
Relatively well-distributed rainfall during the main growing season, December 2004 to April 2005, through much of the maize producing area in the north-east, has led the country’s Crop Estimating Committee to revise upwards its third estimate of maize production for the 2004/05 season to 11.8 million tonnes. This would represent an increase of about 21 percent over the previous year’s above average harvest. With closing stocks of 3.85 million tonnes of maize, as of 26 April 2005, the potential surplus during May 2005-April 2006 marketing year could reach about 4.5 million tonnes, more than enough to cover the region’s import requirements.
The final official production estimate for the winter wheat crop harvested in October-November 2004, at 1.7 million tonnes, indicates an increase by about 10 percent over the previous year. This would translate into a wheat import requirement for the year in the magnitude of 1 million tonnes.
The SAFEX price of white maize has plummeted to US$88/t at the end of May in response to substantial domestic stocks, improved crop production prospects locally and internationally, substantial drop in the international price, and recent appreciation of the Rand against the US dollar (currently at about R6.57/US$). Maize prices had soared to US$216/t in early February 2004 with the fear of a severe drought in the country in 2004. The current low prices should help ease the regional food shortages and improve regional food security.