ZAMBIA (6 June)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in May 2005 estimated the 2005 cereal output at 992 000 tonnes, 28 percent down from last year’s bumper harvest and 16 percent below average of the previous five years. Similarly, total maize production this year is estimated at about 820 000 tonnes. A series of dry spells during the 2004/05 growing season and early cessation of rains, especially in Southern and Western provinces, sharply reduced yields and production of cereals. In addition, the mission estimated a decrease in production of roots and tubers (cassava and sweet potatoes) of about 7 percent from the previous year. The overall prospects for the next winter crops (mainly wheat to be planted in June-July and harvested in November-December) are not good due to low soil moisture conditions and lack of quality seeds.
The mission also found that the retail prices of white maize, in mid-May especially in Southern and Western provinces affected by the drought, are showing an upward trend. In most markets they are above the floor price of 12 000 ZMK/kg established by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA). Also, there is a great variation of prices between locations reflecting long distances between markets, coupled with poor state of roads in many areas and high fuel costs. In April 2005, maize grain prices went from a minimum of 667 ZMK/15kg in Mumbwa (Central province) to a maximum of 1 163 ZMK/kg in Mongu (Western province).
Cereal import requirements for marketing year 2005/06 (May/April) are estimated at 269 000 tonnes of maize. Commercial imports are projected at 222 000 tonnes, with a remaining deficit of 47 000 tonnes to be covered by international assistance for those at risk in 17 districts in the Western and Southern provinces. Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) and WFP assessment results on the magnitude and depth of food insecurity in the country are expected later this month.
According to a recent report of the National Vulnerability Assessment committee, some 1 232 661 people will be in need of some form of food assistance between July 2005 and February 2006, with the household cereal gap estimated at 118 335 tonnes. The report also recommended inclusion of nutrition and health programmes, support for education (prevention of drop-outs) as well as provisions for social protection.