BRAZIL (27 September)
From the beginning of September, normal to abundant rains have maintained soil moisture levels for winter wheat in key growing areas of Southern Brazil (Parana and Rio Grande do Sul), but it disrupted the start of harvesting operations in some localised Northern growing areas. As a consequence of several factors, such as low prices, high national stocks and dry weather conditions at planting, 2005/06 wheat planted area has significantly decreased, especially in Southern producing states, leading to an anticipated production of 5.2 million tonnes, about 9 percent below the previous year’s output. Harvesting of 2005 second season maize crop (safrinha) in Centre-South states is about to be completed and production is expected at only 7.6 million tonnes, far from the good result of 10.7 million tonnes in 2004 and the record crop of 12.8 million tonnes of 2003. This result is essentially due to irregular weather conditions in São Paulo state. Aggregate maize production for 2005 is estimated at 34.9 million tonnes, about 17 percent less than the 2004 good crop. Planting of the important 2005/06 summer season maize crop has just started in Rio Grande do Sul, while better weather conditions are expected in South-East and Centre-West states. Poor prospects for maize prices in 2006, high production costs and better prices for soybeans may induce farmers to reduce planted area for maize. Some concerns are also reported on possible reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides, as a consequence of farmers’ indebtedness following last year’s poor crop and the strength of the local currency. Despite some losses due to the drought in Rio Grande do Sul State, paddy production in 2005 is estimated at record level of more than 13 million tonnes, largely due to an increase in planted area attributed to high prices in 2004.