CHINA (12 October)
In China (mainland), harvesting of 2005 rice crop is complete for early rice and is underway for single crop rice and late double crop rice. Aggregate 2005 paddy production is tentatively forecast at 180 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes higher than last year, reflecting estimated larger area.
Harvesting of the 2005 winter wheat crop was completed in June and in August for spring wheat. Aggregate 2005 wheat crop is estimated at 96 million tonnes, about 4 million tonnes above last year, reflecting the increased wheat area as a result of higher prices and Government policy, especially increased wheat seed subsidies. Harvesting of 2005 coarse grain crops, mainly maize, is complete in the South and will be completed in October in the North. Despite a larger area, a smaller maize output in 2005 is expected due to unfavourable weather during planting and early crop development in the major producing regions. The 2005 maize output is tentatively estimated at 128 million tonnes, some 2.3 million tonnes below last year, but more than 10 million tonnes about the average of the previous five years.
Despite the forecast of larger crops, China in 2005/06 is expected still to face a grain deficit and would continue to be a net grain importer, which may have significant impact on the grain prices in the region and world market. In addition, China is expected to import more than 22 million tonnes of soybeans and more than 3 million tonnes of cotton in 2005/06.
Floods since late September have forced the evacuation of around 286 000 people in north-western China, where steady rainfall has strained the banks of the Hanjiang and Weihe rivers. Floods have always been the major natural disaster in China, but this year has been reportedly more devastating than usual. Up to 8 October, floods in China have reportedly affected more than 211 million people, killed some 1 300 and destroyed more than 8 million hectares of crops.