SOUTH AFRICA (14 October)
The final estimate of 2005 maize harvest by the country’s Crop Estimating Committee revised the previous figure to a record 12.45 million tonnes. This represents an increase, due to favourable weather, of about 28 percent over the drought-affected harvests of the previous two years. The resulting anticipated closing stocks of about 5 million tonnes of maize are more than enough to cover the subregion’s maize import requirements.
The first estimate of the area planted under winter wheat shows a 4 percent decline, to 800 500 hectares, over the 2004 level. However, yields are expected to improve over the 2003 and 2004 drought-affected levels resulting in a near normal production level of 2.03 million tonnes.
A farmer survey of maize planting intentions for the 2005/06 agricultural season shows an alarming decline of 42 percent to a new level of 1.7 million hectares. Farmers have complained about the low unprofitable level of maize prices. The survey also shows a switch from maize and sorghum crops to relatively more lucrative crops such as soybeans and groundnuts.
The SAFEX price of white maize plummeted from about R900/tonne in January 2005 to under R600/tonne beginning of March in response to substantial domestic stocks, improved crop production prospects locally and internationally, and substantial drop in the international price. The price was fairly stable at around R600 until early July; since then it has steadily risen to R850/tonne in early October as the lean season approaches and demand picks up in the subregion. This price is still well below the import parity price of maize of about R1200/tonne. The current low price of maize in the country should help ease the regional food shortages and improve regional food security.