TANZANIA, UNITED REPUBLIC OF (24 October)
The preliminary forecast of the 2005 maize crop indicates a 2 percent increase compared to last year’s good crop. However, poor rainfall patterns in Dodoma, Tabora, Shinyanga, Morogoro (in early January to February) as well as in Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro areas (during March to June) have affected maize crop production and may result in some downward revision.
The overall national food supply situation remains stable. In most markets in the southern highlands grain basket regions of Tanzania, wholesale maize prices have been below the four-year average since January 2005 due to good local production in 2004. However, in early August wholesale maize prices in Dar-es-Salaam were still 18 percent higher compared to the same time last year. The high demand from neighbouring countries, particularly Zambia and Malawi where below average crops have been gathered, may also counteract the expected fall in prices in southern Tanzania.
A vulnerability assessment carried out by the Food Security Information Team (FSIT) identified 34 districts, in the above mentioned regions, that are going face food shortages during the lean season of November 2005 to January 2006. About 600 000 people were identified to be food insecure requiring some form of intervention (subsidized maize prices) and the Government plans to distribute 10 000 tonnes of maize from the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR). The SGR has currently a stock balance of about 112 000 tonnes, the highest level in recent years.