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Appendix 2
ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL ORDERS AND SALES VOLUME

ZOOWERNER, Munich (Federal Republic of Germany)

No estimate of frequency and importance of orders could be obtained, as this company is now expanding and this process will take about 8 or 9 months until they have moved into their new quarters.

They do not estimate that their orders would exceed US$ 25 000 a year.

TAGIS AQUARIUM, Dreieich (Federal Republic of Germany)

Based on past orders they feel their orders would be approximately 25 to 30 boxes of fish a month, with a value of about US$ 40 000 to 50 000 a year.

AQUARIUM RIO, Frankfurt (Federal Republic of Germany)

Not interested in the Lake Nyasa cichlids.

M. DREIER, Dortmund (Federal Republic of Germany)

Based upon past imports from Mozambique they feel that they could handle US$ 50 000 a year, perhaps more, in the new fish compound being built.

MALAWI-TANGANYIKA IMPORTS, Solna (Sweden)

Could order from 15 to 20 boxes a month from September to May. Probably about US$ 20 000 per season.

THE ARC AQUATIC CENTER, Barmley, Surrey (United Kingdom)

Previously exporter from Malawi, is expanding his business and would probably be interested, although the British market is basically not much interested in cichlids.

GOOD EXOTIC, Eekeren (Belgium)

Because of the hard competition from retailers importing directly from the Far East, has retreated recently from marine reef fishes, and other speciality fishes. Looking for something not yet exploited, is developing cool marine fishes. Not interested in Lake Nyasa cichlids.

AQUARIA ANTWERP, Artselaar, Antwerp, (Belgium)

Is now importing on a small scale from Malawi; would be interested in Mozambique cichlids, provided prices and qualities are right. Orders probably to be estimated conservatively at about US$ 25 000 a year.

The present potential market for Lake Nyasa cichlids collected on the Mozambique coastline, for the whole of Europe, obtained by adding the prudent estimates of the interviewed dealers, can be assessed at a total of between US$ 140 000 and to 150 000 f.o.b. Maputo.

When the dealers were asked at how much they estimated the sales potential for these fishes in Europe, they came with figures between US$ 100 000 and 200 000.

The author's estimation lies within this rough assessment of the dealers.

The evolution of the sales potential, as it was projected by the dealers, for the next two to four years after the exports are re-activated, will depend on two main features over which they have no control, namely:

The evolution of the world economy in general and its impact on the trade.

The sophistication of the management of the export company in Mozambique, both in technical and marketing techniques.

RECOMMENDATIONS

All dealers were wary of the Rift Lake cichlids sales potential.

Their approach to the possibility of importing cichlids was eager but not enthusiastic; because of their standing they cannot afford not to have anything new. But the problems of importing from collecting grounds which are not close to an international airport, with the risks of high mortalities and resulting acclimatization quarantines on expensive and slow-moving fishes are foremost in their planning.

In depressed markets dealers tend to concentrate on fast-moving and cheap fishes on which profits can be forecasted. They will venture in new market opportunities only when profits will compensate the inherent risks.

To re-activate the Mozambique cichlids and achieve a substantial volume of sales over a reasonable period will call for:

As the Mozambique coastline had formerly not been fully exploited the resumption of the exports was welcomed by the dealers; they all felt that it could give a badly needed boost to the lagging sales of cichlids from the Malawi coastline whose potential is now almost exhausted.

Their prime concern, however, was how the Mozambique project would be managed.


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