The previous chapter considered the likely effects of the proposed development on the financial prosperity and standard of life of the individual farming family. This chapter discusses some of the longer-term economic implications and consequences of the proposed development from the point of view of the Government (the immediate requirements for Government action if the proposed programme of development is adopted, have already been described in 6.4 above).
It is desirable to predict the economic input/output dynamics of the situation expected to arise as a result of the proposed project activities and the possible impact on the national economy. Costs and benefits accruing to the economy and society through the development of rural fish culture cannot be assessed at the present time by means of a formal analysis. The necessary data are in part not available and many indirect effects are difficult to quantify. The project to initiate and support the proposed development is still in the formulation phase, which makes it difficult to project inputs and outputs. It is however, possible to outline some already predictable direct and indirect effects and implications of such a development effort, of concern to the Government.
8.2.1 Because of the dispersed settlement structure in Rwanda, it will not be feasible to centralize support for the development of small-scale rural fish culture with respect to operational inputs. Material inputs which are not available on the farm comprise feed and fingerlings. Feed procurement, where planned, will have to be organized, for timely availability and transport, by the respective production units, and during the initial development phase producers will require advice and technical assistance from extension agents.
Initially fingerlings can be produced centrally, but with a growing geographical coverage of the development programme, fingerling production and distribution will have to be organized on the prefectural level. The present transport and communication system in rural Rwanda constitutes, in general, no constraint to the physical infrastructural support, as most settlements can be reached by earthen roads which are passable most of the year.
8.2.2 Considering the degree to which farm produce may be consumed on the farm (although pond fish culture may result in a higher percentage of market production because of output peaks two or three times a year) and the relatively developed accessibility of rural markets, no difficulties can be foreseen at the moment with respect to marketing the surplus fish that the farmer has when he harvests his fish pond. Bulk harvests from larger scale cooperatively undertaken pond culture may, however, require the organization of transport of the product to urban markets and the collection of feed.
For both family based and cooperatively organized production, commercialization of the marketable surplus will be, at least in the near future, carried out by the producers, as the magnitude of production, as well as the dispersed locations of production units, will probably not encourage marketing by intermediates or traders.
There are 275 permanent markets in Rwanda, frequented daily by about 60 000 people (Aubray, 1976). The accessibility of markets is illustrated in the following table:
Table 24
Time to Reach Nearest Market1
| Travel Time (Hours) | Families | |
| No. | % | |
| Less than half | 169 | 14 |
| 1/2 – 1 1/2 | 617 | 51 |
| 1 1/2 – 2 1/2 | 282 | 23 |
| 2 1/2 – 3 1/2 | 130 | 11 |
| 3 1/2 – 4 1/2 | 6 | |
| Over 4 1/2 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 208 | 100 | |
1 Sample survey by Leurquin (1960) In: Morris (1979)
Source: Morris, 1978
8.3.1 The major constraint to the development of rural fish culture - sufficient numbers of extension personnel with medium-level and practical training - will remain. To overcome this constraint, and despite what has just been said, centralized in-country training will be most desirable, because resource limitations will not allow dispersed installations. Centralized research facilities, capable of validating established systems of aquaculture in local conditions and adapting them as necessary, will be the most practicable for the same reason.
The existing fish culture centre in Kigembe near Butare, seems to be potentially suitable for the purpose of establishing a national centre for fish culture training and applied research.
8.3.2 A serious constraint to an increased per caput consumption of fish is the low purchasing power of the rural population. The commercialization of fish in rural markets, via monetary exchange, will be limited in the near future, as rural incomes cannot be expected to increase dramatically. Therefore planning for fish culture development with the aim of countering the deficit of animal proteins in the rural diet will have to envisage small, family-based units, which provide fish for home consumption, barter and, only on a limited scale, the market. Any marketable surplus, however, will, at least in the near future, be readily absorbed by the urban markets and rural centres.
8.4.1 Suitable raw materials for fish feeds, although apparently available, may be limited in some areas, and little is known about the present alternative use, as no tradition of semi-intensive or intensive animal husbandry exists in rural Rwanda. The availability and accessibility of suitable feedstuffs will have to be investigated for each concrete case where a medium-scale production unit is planned and feeding is envisaged.
8.4.2 The input, which is at present not available on a significant scale, is fingerlings of the right species. The development of rural fish culture will depend on the production and distribution of fingerlings to the farmers, at prices within their financial possibilities.
8.5.1 Based on the rough projections above, fish culture development would have a direct effect on existing production structure of the following dimensions:
Provision of fish for human consumption - after four years the production of about 180 tons of fish would provide sufficient animal protein for around 2 400 rural families; an increase of per caput consumption to nearly 10 kg/year will still leave 40 percent of the fish to be marketed (around 80 tons).
Income - 2 400 families engaged in fish culture would increase their cash income by Rw.F. 2 000 to 2 500, by selling about 40 percent of their fish production. The estimated combined additional income of about Rw.F. 6 million would strengthen the internal market of the country.
Employment - the labour potential of around 2 400 families would be used more productively; cooperative production may create self-employment in Government settlement schemes or other rural centres.
The overall agricultural production structure would be diversified.
Introduction of improved systems on the scale envisaged, utilizing mainly indigenous resources, can be expected to establish fish culture in the rural milieu of Rwanda, with potential for development to an extent where a significant proportion of the national requirements for animal protein can be satisfied.
8.5.2 The outlined magnitude of production does not consider the probable spread effect (or multiplier effect) of successfully operating fish culture units, which may induce more than the number of farmers or cooperatives estimated to take up fish culture. However, taking into account only the above number of production units, the achieved production will, by the fourth year, have already increased the present yearly supply of fish in Rwanda considerably, adding an annual value of over 12 million to the Gross Domestic Product.
8.5.3 The most important benefit, however, will be that mentioned earlier above: the establishment of a national capability to assess, adapt, develop and apply systems of aquaculture to the extent that may seem necessary and desirable in the light of the national economic situation at the time.
