Table 3.10 Use of cereals and oilseed proteins for animal feed, developing countries

Contents - Previous - Next

Concerning the future, by and large, and unless there are special country specific circumstances, the use of cereals feed is likely to grow at roughly the same rate as that of total livestock output, with the latter measured as indicated in the footnote to Table 3.10. This pattern may deviate in some cases from the historical relationships which have often been unstable over time. For example, the data for East Asia show that feed use grew twice as fast as livestock output in the 1970s but half as fast in the 1980s. Moreover, the historical statistics of feed use are often a poor guide to what may happen in the future because they are very unreliable for many developing countries.

The projections of cereals feed use are shown in Table 3.10, together with those of livestock production. A growth rate of 3.7 percent for the next 20 years is well below that of the last 20 years (5.5 percent p.a. in 1970-90) though equal to that of the 1980s. Still, feed use will continue to be the dynamic element in total use of cereals in the developing countries. Its share in total use would increase further, to some 22 percent by year 2010 compared with 17 percent at present and only 11 percent 20 years ago. Finally, it must be noted that cereals feed is only one component, and in many developing countries a minor component, of the (largely unknown) total balance between feed resources and livestock production (see Chapter 4).

Use of oilseed proteins in the livestock sector

The 93 developing countries of this study use oilseed proteins in their livestock production to the tune of some 14 million tonnes. In addition, they use some 1.2 million tonnes of fishmeal protein. Such use grew rapidly in the past two decades at a rate above that of livestock production (Table 3.10), though such growth has tended to slow down in the 1980s. A few developing countries account for some two-thirds of total consumption (China, India, Mexico, Turkey, Pakistan).

The livestock production projections presented here imply that feed consumption of oilseed proteins would continue to grow at rates somewhat above those of total livestock output. The implications of this growth in the livestock sector and the domestic consumption of oilseed proteins is that by the year 2010 the developing countries as a whole would have a net export surplus of oilmeal proteins below present levels. Their present production of oilseeds, after deduction for uses not contributing to actual or potential feed protein supplies (e.g. oilseeds consumed directly as food, seed, etc.), amounts to some 24 million tonnes, i.e. it exceeds their consumption as feed by some 10 million tonnes, in crude protein equivalent. By the year 2010, production (discussed later in this chapter) could reach some 46 million tonnes, leaving some 6 million tonnes for net exports. Latin America would continue to be a large net exporter but at the same time the import requirements of the other regions, particularly East Asia and the Near East/North Africa, would grow rapidly, thus reducing the net export availabilities of the developing countries as a whole.

Other basic food crops (roots, tubers, plantains, pulses)

Roots, tubers, plantains

This category of basic foods comprises a variety of products, the main ones being cassava, sweet potatoes, potatoes, yams, taro and plantains (hereafter referred to as "starchy foods"). For some of them, much of the production and apparent consumption is at the subsistence level. Moreover, they are produced and consumed predominantly in countries with poor statistical services and are subject to above-average rates of waste/post-harvest losses. For these reasons, the data on production and apparent consumption are subject to margins of error which are thought to be much larger than those for other food products.

There are two dimensions of the starchy foods economy which seem to dominate all others when it comes to viewing developments in this sector: ecology and per caput incomes. In other words, these products are the mainstay of diets of poor people in countries characterized by ecological conditions (mainly the forest zones in the humid tropics) making them the predominant subsistence crops. It is precisely in the countries which combine both these characteristics and also have low per caput levels of aggregate food supplies that very high levels of apparent per caput food consumption of roots are encountered. There are 15 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (group "Africa-high" in Table 3.11) each with over 200 kg of apparent per caput consumption (in fresh product weight), but with some having levels of 350-400kg (Ghana, Gabon, Congo, Uganda) and others above 400 kg (Zaire). Together these countries account for 55 percent of sub-Saharan Africa's population and they depend on roots for some 40 percent of their food supplies. Smaller country groups in both sub-Saharan Africa and the Latin America/Caribbean region have a "medium" level dependence on roots for their total food supplies (100-200kg per caput) while all the other developing countries have consumption levels well below 100 kg (40 kg on the average), including some with very low levels (typically 5 kg) in sub-Saharan Africa itself, e.g. Mali, Somalia.

It is obvious that the high dependence of diets on these products in some of the poorest countries with high incidence of undernutrition makes this group of crops of prime importance in any assessment of future prospects in nutrition and of policies to improve it. It is also a reminder that the analysis of issues of food security, poverty and undernutrition should not be unduly limited to cereals. At the same time, the poor quality of data on this very important source of energy in diets makes difficult the analysis of the food problem and the assessment of the future precisely in some of the countries in which the problem is most acute. The prospects for roots in food consumption are, therefore, presented here for these specific root-dependent countries together with those for cereals and for total food (Table 3.11).

Table 3.11 Roots, tubers and plantains (starchy foods) in the developing countries

*Over 200 kg/caput in 1988/90 (fresh product weight): Benin, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Togo, Angola, Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, Zaire, Burundi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda.
**100-200kg/caput, Africa: Guinea, Liberia, Cameroon, Madagascar, Namibia; Latin America/ Caribbean: Dom. Republic, Haiti, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru.

The prospects are that per caput food consumption of starchy foods will continue to decline, partly as a result of continuing urbanization (though its effect will be mainly limited to cassava and yams), but no radical structural change of diets away from the high dependence on these products is to be expected in the African countries. The little growth in per caput incomes and the difficulties in increasing supplies of cereals will permit little improvement in total food supplies and will ensure continued high dependence of the diets of these countries on starchy foods. In the end, countries accounting for over 50 percent of sub-Saharan Africa's population would still depend on starchy foods for some 36 percent of their total food supplies (calories). This assumes that production can grow at rates somewhat above those of the last 20 years, an outcome which is considered feasible. Overall, however, the production of this group of crops in the developing countries as a whole is expected to grow at a rate below that of the population, a pattern well established in the historical period. This reflects essentially the change in diets resulting from urbanization which tends to favour foods (e.g. cereals) which are often cheaper and more convenient for preparation and consumption in urban environments compared with the rural ones. Given the potential for increasing production, policies to stimulate consumption could be important for improving nutrition. Such policies may include research to develop new root-based food products, such as composite flours, noodles, chips, dehydrated products, etc.

No discussion of the starchy roots sector of the developing countries would be complete without a brief examination of the future of cassava exports, mainly to Europe for animal feed. Such exports, almost entirely from Thailand and to a lesser extent Indonesia, experienced phenomenal growth in the past, from 5 million tonnes in 1969/71 to 24 million tonnes in 1988/90 in net terms (fresh product equivalent of dried cassava) at which level they peaked in the late 1980s, reflecting, inter alia, trade agreements to restrain the growth of such exports. The reasons for these historical developments are well known: imported cassava and oilmeals captured an increasing share of the European feed market substituting for cereals which were uncompetitively priced by the domestic support policies. The situation may change in the future following policy reforms in Europe which would lower cereal prices to the feed sector. It is, therefore, possible that the net exports of the developing countries would decline from the present level of 24 million tonnes, though there is still scope for adjustments in the export price of cassava to retain competitiveness with the lower-priced cereals in the feed markets.

Pulses (dry)

This group of basic foods, often included in the statistics together with cereals in the foodgrains group, comprises a variety of products (beans, peas, chickpeas, lentils, etc.; soybeans and groundnuts are included in the oilseeds, not in pulses) which form an important component of the diet, particularly those of the low-income population groups, in many developing countries (FAO, 1981). Average per caput apparent food consumption of pulses in the developing countries as a whole is some 7.5 kg and it has been falling (it was 12 kg in the early 1960s). There is, however, still a large number of developing countries with relatively high levels (10-20kg), e.g. Burkina Faso, Uganda, India, Nicaragua, Brazil, etc., and a few with very high ones, e.g. Rwanda, Burundi. With few exceptions (e.g. Brazil, Mexico), these countries have low per caput total food supplies and particularly of livestock products. Pulses are, therefore, an important source of protein, particularly in countries with low livestock/fish consumption levels. Thus, they provide 45 percent of total protein availabilities in Rwanda and Burundi, 25 percent in Uganda, 20 percent in Haiti and 14 percent in India.

The trend towards decline in per caput consumption of the developing countries as a whole was halted in the 1980s, particularly if China is excluded from the total. For the future it is estimated that per caput food consumption may remain at about present levels (9.0-9.5 kg on the average, or 7.5-8.0 kg if China is included). In practice, this is saying that the experience of the 1980s rather than that of the longer historical period may be representative of likely developments in the next 20 years. The dependence of the above-mentioned countries on pulses for their total protein supplies will remain relatively high. The growth rates of total demand (all uses) and production are shown in Table 3.12.

Oilcrops

The world produced in 1988/90 oilcrops which corresponded to some 71 million tonnes of oil equivalent. Actual production of vegetable oil was, however, smaller (60 million tonnes) because some oilseeds are also used for purposes other than oil extraction, e.g. direct food, feed, seed, etc. This latter figure includes some 2 million tonnes of vegetable oil produced from crops (maize) and residues (rice bran) not in the oilcrop category.

Table 3.12 Pulses in the developing countries: growth rates of production and demand (% p.a.)

In the last 20 years the sector experienced above-average growth in production (4.0 percent p.a.) as well as radical structural change as concerns the shares in total production of the individual oilcrops and regions. The rapid expansion of oilpalm products in East Asia, soybeans in South America and sunflower seed and rapeseed mostly in Western Europe and to a lesser extent North America have been the most characteristic signs of this important structural change. Over the same period, some traditional oilcrops (mainly groundnuts, coconuts, sesame and cottonseed) have fallen behind as major sources of world vegetable oils production (their share-in oil equivalent declined from 38 percent in 1969/71 to 26 percent in 1988/90).

There are a number of characteristics of the oilcrops sector that make its analysis and assessment of future prospects a rather complex undertaking. On the production side, there are both tree crops (oilpalm, coconut, olive trees) characterized by slow supply response to changing market conditions and annual ones with high rates of substitutability with other annual crops (e.g. soybeans for maize) and consequently high supply responses. Then, cottonseed is really a by-product of cotton lint production, whose production response is little affected by oil market conditions. Further, most oilcrops produce joint products of oil and protein meals for livestock.

The demand side is characterized by the fact that for each of these joint products there is a high degree of substitutability in consumption. In addition, the use of vegetable oils in non-food industrial uses (paints, detergents) in which they compete with petroleum products as well as the competition in the food markets with animal fats further complicate the picture; and so does the competition of oilmeals with fishmeal and other protein crops in the animal feeds sector. The possibility of substituting in consumption one product for another has been increasing over time with the evolution of technology. The practical implication is that market forces ensure that prices of the different oils tend to move in unison, and so do the prices of the different oilmeals. At the same time the prices of the joint products of any particular oilseed (e.g. of soybean oil and meal) may follow diverging paths (see World Bank, 1993c).

Oils and fats are a food commodity with high income elasticity of demand in the developing countries. Their per caput consumption of vegetable oils (including both oil proper and the oil equivalent of oilcrop products consumed as food in forms other than oil, e.g. groundouts as pulses) is around 8 kg, compared with some 16 kg in the developed countries. There is, therefore, considerable scope for further expansion of consumption, though future growth can be expected to be slower than that of the last 20 years when the developing countries had started from very low levels. The relevant projections are shown in Table 3.13.

The demand of the developing countries for oilseed proteins, the joint product of most oilcrops, is expected to grow faster than that for vegetable oils, reflecting the rapid growth of the livestock sector, as discussed earlier. This will continuation and accentuation of the past pattern of the differentials in the two growth rates, as follows (percent p.a.):

Table 3.13 Vegetable oils: summary data and projections, 93 developing countries (all oilcrops in oil equivalent)

As discussed in the section on livestock, these developments are likely to lead to a situation whereby the developing countries will continue to be large and growing net exporters of vegetable oils (oils plus the oil equivalent of net oilseed exports) but their net surplus of oilseed proteins (from oilmeals and oilmeal equivalent of oilseeds) would decline. Latin America would continue to be a large net exporter, but the growth in the net deficits of East Asia and Near East/North Africa will lead to shrinking net exports of oilseed proteins from the developing countries as a whole. This possible outcome reflects also the prospect that palm oil (whose production generates little oilmeal in the form of the palm kernel cake) is likely to continue to expand its share in total oilcrop production in the developing countries.

The further structural change in the oilseeds sector of the developing countries that may occur in the future is depicted in Table 3.14. The past trend for the share of soybeans to increase rapidly could come to a halt, though total production would still more than double, down from a 12-fold increase during the last 20 years when it had started from a very low base and expanded rapidly in South America. The coconut sector will probably see little growth (1.3 percent p.a. and this is probably too optimistic). This reflects, among other things, the increasing competition from palm kernel oil in the lauric oils market. Most other oilseeds could maintain their shares at present levels, after the decline they suffered in the past under the impact of the rapid expansion of the palm oil and soybeans sectors.

Major agricultural exportables of the developing countries, in brief

Sugar

Sugar consumption in the developing countries as a whole is still well below that of the developed countries, 18kg and 37 kg respectively. In the former, the highest levels are in Latin America/Caribbean and Near East/N Africa (43 kg and 29 kg, respectively) and lowest in sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia (8-9 kg). In this latter region, particularly in China, alternative sweeteners account for a good share of total sweetener consumption. It is foreseen that per caput sugar consumption in the developing countries would grow by about I kg per decade to reach some 20 kg by year 2010, but with the above-indicated wide regional differentials being maintained, though they would be somewhat less pronounced than at present. Overall there would be a slowdown in the growth rate of food consumption of sugar in the developing countries compared with the past (2.5 percent p.a. for 1988/90-2010, compared with 4.1 percent p.a. in the 1970s and 2.8 percent p.a. in the 1980s).

Continue

Contents - Previous - Next