* Paper adapted and presented by a staff member of the International Institute for Cotton, Liverpool. Original version written by Dr. Gordon Gemmill, City University of London, Business School.
1. Introduction
1.1 A FUTURE is a legally binding contract to deliver/take delivery on a specified date of a given quality and quantity of a commodity at an agreed price.
1.2 Futures trading began during the American Civil War. Prices for grain and cotton were very unstable. In 1865 the Chicago Board of Trade began collecting INITIAL MARGIN and VARIATION MARGIN to make sure that speculators fulfilled their obligations.
The initial margin is enough money, paid in advance, to cover one day's potential loss.
The variation margin is one day's actual loss (or gain), paid in arrears.
1.3 By 1867 there was a large market in Liverpool in "cargoes to arrive" and in 1869 the Cotton Brokers' Association had published rules for "contracts in cargoes to arrive". In 1876 a system of CLEARING was devised and the organization to do this was at first the Cotton Brokers' Bank (1878) and merged into the Liverpool Cotton Association in 1882.
1.4 What distinguishes a futures contract from a forward contract?
(i) CREDIT - in a forward contract the two parties have to trust each other, whereas the collection of margins on a futures contract removes all credit.(ii) STANDARDIZATION - forward contracts have terms to suit the two parties, whereas futures contracts specify a standard quality, delivery month, location, system of payment, etc.
(iii) PUBLIC PRICES - forward prices are not always known, whereas futures prices are published.
(iv) PURPOSE OF TRADE - most futures contracts are not delivered, but re-sold (or re-purchased) prior to delivery because their purpose is to cover price-changes rather than to obtain the goods.
1.5 Where are the futures markets?
Chicago - grains, soyabeans, cattle, pigs
New York - sugar, cocoa, coffee, COTTON, oil
London - sugar, cocoa, coffee, oil
Paris
Sydney
Kuala Lumpur
Hong Kong
1.6 What do futures prices "Look Like"?
New York Cotton Exchange, dosing prices, 5.6.85
(50,000 lb contract, prices in cents per lb)
|
July |
62.94 |
|
Oct |
61.55 |
|
Dec |
62.12 |
|
March |
63.30 |
|
May |
63.80 |
|
July |
64.02 |
5. Arbitrages
Arbitrages are riskless trades which bring prices to their "correct" levels.
5.1 Time arbitrage
"Cash and carry"
|
March 20 |
buy spot cotton at $0.5990 and sell July futures at $0.6290 |
|
July 31 |
deliver cotton |
|
|
gain = $0.03/lb i.e. 5.00 %, - less storage costs |
|
|
You would do this if storage costs were less than 5 % over the 4 months. |
5.2 Space arbitrage
Not possible in cotton. In other products, buy futures in London, sell futures in New York and hope to make a profit on difference in prices.
The basis
The term "basis" is used to describe the difference between the price of the commodity in the actual market and the price of the futures contract in the same commodity.
BASIS = CASH PRICE minus FUTURES PRICE.
The basis can be either positive or negative.
The concept of basis strengthening can be summarized as the basis becomes more positive.
The concept of basis weakening can be summarized as the basis becomes more negative.
The basis is comprised of two components:
* The time-associated component.
* The distance-associated component.
The time-associated component of the basis may be described as the costs of carrying the physical commodity for a future date. Costs of carry consist of the costs of storage, insurance, interest, etc.
The distance-associated component of the basis may be described as the costs of transporting the physical commodity to a different location. Transportation costs reflect the fact that the commodity may be produced in a location different from that where it is delivered.
Changing supply and demand factors in different local markets, availability of transportation facilities and unexpected factors such as labour disputes may result in a difference between the cash price and the futures price.
Changes in the cash price and the futures price of a commodity: have a tendency to move in concert with each other.
Fluctuations in the basis tend to be less volatile than fluctuations in cash and futures prices. The basis is generally more predictable than both cash prices and futures prices.
2. Organization of futures markets
1. Trade occurs around "rings" or "pies" and traders shout bids and offers to each other across the middle.
2. The Clearing House is responsible for collecting the initial margin from each buyer and seller and collects/pays out variation margin every day. The Clearing House is also responsible for organizing delivery of the goods and payment.
3. Each member of a market acts as a clearing house to his own customers, calling them for margin as required.
3. Why some commodities have futures and others none
1. Is the cash market large enough?
2. Is the price sufficiently volatile?
3. Are there enough independent buyers and sellers?
4. Can the commodity be standardized?
5. Are existing forward contracts flexible enough anyway?
4. Speculation (trading) with futures
4.1 Simple trade
View - expect July price to fall
|
March 1 |
sell 10 lots July at 60.00 cents/lb |
|
(each lot is 50,000 lb) | |
|
|
(initial margin = $ 1.500/lot, so $ 15,000 total) |
|
|
(value of cotton controlled = $ 30.000 x 10 = $ 300,000) |
|
March 20 |
buy 10 lots July at $ 0.59/lb |
|
|
gain = $ 0.01/lb on 10 lots |
|
|
= $ 0.01 x 10 x 50,000 |
|
|
= $ 5.000 |
4.2 Spread between months View - expect October to rise relative to July
|
March 1 |
sell 1 lot July at $ 60.00 |
|
|
buy 1 lot October at $ 58.40 |
|
June 5 |
buy 1 lot July at $ 62.94 |
|
|
sell 1 lot October at $ 61.55 |
|
gain |
= $ 60.00 - $ 62.94 + $ 61.55 - $ 58.40/lb |
|
|
= $ 0.21/lb |
4.3 Spreads between commodities
Some traders do "exotic" spreads (which are really just two trades).
e.g. "Yellow Toyota" = sell Japanese yen/buy corn.
The role of the Clearing House
Daily settlement and marking-to-the-market
1. Facilitates the flow and transfer of funds.
2. Acts as a counter party to the futures contract.
3. Assures the financial integrity of the market.
4. Administers daily evaluation and settlement of profits and losses.
5. Provides a mechanism for delivery or cash settlement.
The futures exchange determines the daily settlement price for each contract traded.
The clearing house uses the daily settlement price to credit the accounts of clearing members showing a net gain on their positions as a result of favourable price movements, and debit the accounts of clearing members showing a net loss due to adverse price movements.
The principle of daily cash settlement permits the trader to withdraw any profit resulting from his futures trading on a daily basis.
MARKING TO THE MARKET COTTON (CTN) 50,000 LBS; CENTS PER LB.
|
|
Open |
High |
Low |
Settle |
Change |
|
Dec |
54.92 |
55.29 |
54.65 |
55.16 |
+20 |
|
Mar 89 |
55.35 |
55.80 |
55.16 |
55.75 |
+35 |
|
May |
55.40 |
55.95 |
55.30 |
55.87 |
+27 |
|
July |
55.65 |
56.10 |
55.46 |
55.85 |
+10 |
|
Oct |
55.90 |
55.90 |
55.60 |
55.90 |
+45 |
|
Dec |
55.80 |
56.15 |
56.62 |
56.07 |
+52 |
Est vol 5.000; vol Tues 5,051; open int 35,876, -698.
To understand the functioning of a futures exchange, one must understand two parts of the system:
1. Order flow and matching of trades.
2. Clearing and position keeping.
This is a feature of exchanges on which instruments that cannot be owned or deposited are traded.
The role of the Clearing House
A Clearing House provides 5 essential services:
1. Facilitates the flow and transfer of funds, matching the data of executed buy and sell trades (and updating positions).2. Upon the execution of an order, acts as the counter party to the futures contract, severing the link between the buyer and seller and permitting a trader to conduct an offsetting transaction without having to locate and obtain the agreement of the original party.
3. Assures the financial integrity of the market by guaranteeing the contract.
4. Provides a system of daily evaluation and settlement of profits and losses.
5. Provides a mechanism for delivery or cash settlement.
Risk and inventory management
You are the manager of a cotton trading company.
You know that in 3 months you will have to sell a large amount of cotton to meet the cash needs of the company.
Thus:
You have a long position in the cash market.
Your risk is a decline in the cotton market.
You can hedge this risk with cotton futures.
You place a short hedge by selling cotton futures.
As a result of the hedge:
If the cotton market drops, you avoid a loss. If the cotton market rises, you are unable to profit.
The trading process and market participants
Market participants:
- Institutional investors
- Private/public enterprises
- Individual investors
Trading floor participants:
- Floor brokers: Execute orders for non-members as their agent.
- Locals: trade on their own account (provide greater liquidity).
6. Hedging
6.1 Merchant's hedge
|
|
Cash market |
Futures market |
|
Mar 1 |
Merchant agrees to sell cotton to manufacturer for August delivery at $63.50 |
Buys N.Y. futures at $62.00 |
|
Mar 10 |
Buys cotton needed at cif equivalent price of $64.50 (market has risen) |
Sells futures at $63.00 |
|
|
loss = $1.00 |
gain = $1.00 |
The futures contract was used as a temporary substitute for a cash-market purchase by the merchant. It released him from the necessity of a "back-to-back" deal. What he lost on the cash market, he recouped on the futures market.
6.2 Consumer hedge
|
|
Cash market |
Futures market |
|
Mar 1 |
Manufacturer has an order for July which requires cotton to be bought in May. Expected price is $ 63.00 |
Buy N.Y. futures at $ 62.00 |
|
May 1 |
Buy cotton at $61.50 |
Sell futures at $ 60.50 |
|
|
gain = $ 1.50 |
loss = $ 1.50 |
The manufacturer was worried that prices might rise, whereas they actually fell. Nevertheless, by using the futures market he was able to lock-in the price of $ 63.00 on 1 March (== $ 61.50 paid in May plus loss o $ 1.50 on futures).
7. Forecasting the futures price
7.1 Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysts make medium- to long-term forecasts of prices, based upon the "fundamentals" of supply and demand. They concentrate on forecasting CLOSING STOCKS from SUPPLY, DEMAND and OPENING STOCKS. PRICE is then forecast as a function of:
CLOSING STOCKS/CONSUMPTION
7.2 Technical analysis
Technical analysts make short-term (one hour to two weeks) forecasts based only upon the recent movement of the price. Their decisions are based upon rules such as:
5-day versus 3-day moving averages of pricestrend lines - "if price rises 5 % buy and follow trend"
support and resistance - prices (they claim) tend to remain in narrow bands, such as $ 0.62- $ 0.63 per lb, but once they "break-out" then buy/sell, because the price will go further.
8. Do futures markets matter?
8.1 They help to determine the "correct" price for a commodity. Even if you do not use futures, you should watch futures prices as an indicator of supply/demand balance.
8.2 They allow hedging to occur (insurance).
Technical analysis per closing Oct 31, 1988 *
* This material is for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based on it. Opinions expressed are our present opinions only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable but we do not represent (hat it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. We may have positions, or not, buy and sell, in these or other cash-, futures- and options-markets.
N.Y. Cotton (December 88)
|
Main-trend: (20-30 weeks) |
Bearish, with a target of $ 45.00. | ||
|
Short-term trend: (20-30 days) |
Sideways, with a target of $ 57.65, however, the 9-week consolidation-pattern is bearish (rising wedge): | ||
|
|
|
- Closing below $ 53.55 reconfirms the long-term target of $ 45.00. | |
|
|
|
- Closing above $ 57.65 activates a $ 59.50- $ 60.75 target range. | |
|
Technical indicators: |
are starting to display bearish divergences as compared to the most recent price-action. (Failure to confirm the rally highs.) | ||
|
Trading-strategy: |
Work from the short side (top-picking) along the major bearish trend, with a protective stop above $ 57.65 (basis close). If stopped out, go short again in the $ 59.50- $ 60.75 range. | ||
|
|
$ 60.75 |
2nd resistance | |
|
|
$ 37.6S |
1st resistance | |
|
|
$ 56.60 |
Minor resistance | |
|
|
$ 55.60 |
NY close Oct 31 | |
|
|
$ 54.75 |
1st support | |
|
|
$ 53.55 |
2nd support | |
|
|
$ 52.00 |
3rd support | |
New York Cotton Exchange
New York Cotton Exchange
Four World Trade Center
New York, NY 10048
Tel: (212) 958-2650
Tlx: 961312
Fax: (212) 839-8061
|
FUTURES |
size |
tick size |
months |
hours |
delivery |
|
US Dollar Index |
$500 * index |
$5.00 |
Mar Jun Sep Dec |
8.20-14.40 |
c |
|
Ecu |
Ecu 100.000 |
$10.00 |
Mar Jun Sep Dec |
8.20-14.40 |
p |
|
Five Year US Treasury notes |
$100,000 |
$15.625 |
Mar Jun Sep Dec |
8.20-15.00 |
p |
|
Cocoa |
50,000 lbs |
$5.00 |
Mar May Jul Oct Dec |
10.30-15.00 |
p |
|
Orange juice |
15,000 lbs |
$7.50 |
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov |
10.15-14.45 |
p |
|
OPTIONS |
|||||
|
Cocoa |
50.000 lbs |
$5.00 |
Mar May Jul Oct Dec |
10.30-15.00 |
f |
|
Orange juice |
15,000 lbs |
$7.50 |
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov |
10.45-14.45 |
f |
|
US Dollar Index |
$500 * index |
$5.00 |
Mar Jun Sep Dec |
8.20-14.40 |
f |
|
Five Year US Treasury notes |
$100.000 |
$15.625 |
Mar Jun Sep Dec |
8.20-15.00 |
f |
All NYCE's financial contracts are traded on Finex, the exchange's financial instruments subsidiary.
COTTON CASH PRICE UNITED STATE
Average Spot Cotton Prices,2 C.I.F. Northern Europe In Cents Per Pound (Equivalent U.S. c/Lb.)
|
Crop Year (Aug.-July) |
M1" |
SM 1 1/10 - 3/32 |
SM 1½ U.S. Calif. |
Australian M 1 3/32 |
||||||||||
|
U S. Orleans Texas |
Pakistan N.T. Sind |
Guatemala SM |
U.S. Memphis Terr. SM |
Greece SM |
Egypt Giza |
Mexico SM |
Nicaragua SM |
Syria SM |
USSR Pervyi. |
Tanzania A.A. |
Turkey Izmir (12 MIR) |
|||
|
1978-79 |
63.23 |
|
75.23 |
72.52 |
83.09 |
|
72.94 |
70.21 |
72.08 |
72.55 |
|
73.46 |
77.99 |
|
|
1979-80 |
75.36 |
75.41 |
83.63 |
87.49 |
84.00 |
136.37 |
85.86 |
86.33 |
83.50 |
85.89 |
92.33 |
90.25 |
90.69 |
|
|
1980-81 |
89.14 |
84.94 |
93.47 |
101.23 |
83.80 |
137.66 |
94.91 |
92.46 |
101.00 |
92.80 |
103.25 |
96.65 |
101.85 |
|
|
1981-82 |
66.76 |
65.65 |
72.87 |
76.30 |
81.00 |
115.73 |
75.28 |
72.17 |
79.82 |
73.02 |
88.08 |
77.55 |
79.79 |
|
|
1982-83 |
68.11 |
65.59 |
76.14 |
77.94 |
85.74 |
110.07 |
76.39 |
75.70 |
81.10 |
71.00 |
87.50 |
63.44 |
84.99 |
|
|
1983-84 |
78.41 |
75.20 |
86.81 |
87.09 |
94.37 |
134.07 |
87.42 |
86.02 |
90.00 |
91.15 |
95.14 |
92.74 |
94.90 |
90.83 |
|
1984-85 |
65.92 |
55.96 |
66.96 |
73.47 |
74.32 |
136.06 |
70.00 |
N.A. |
75.15 |
- |
77.18 |
74.18 |
75.88 |
67.62 |
|
1985-861 |
52.55 |
37.44 |
51.38 |
58.50 |
50.98 |
111.27 |
53.02 |
N.A. |
47.00 |
48.09 |
55.89 |
54.21 |
59.65 |
50.34 |
|
July '85 |
29.70 |
28.30 |
|
38.05 |
37.10 |
111.75 |
43.80 |
|
|
36.15 |
45.00 |
44.70 |
41.90 |
|
|
Aug. '86 |
29.44 |
27.94 |
|
37.75 |
36.80 |
111.75 |
43.06 |
|
|
36.44 |
46.30 |
44.75 |
44.31 |
|
|
Sept. '86 |
34.54 |
33.25 |
|
44.69 |
46.00 |
111.75 |
46.00 |
|
|
43.63 |
50.00 |
53.30 |
56.50 |
|
|
Oct. '65 |
43.55 |
40.20 |
|
52.35 |
53.85 |
111.75 |
54.75 |
|
|
53.20 |
54.00 |
54.35 |
67.40 |
|
1 Preliminary.
2 Generally prompt shipment. Source: International Cotton Advisory Commerce
United States Government Crop Forecasts and Actual Cotton Crops
|
Year |
Forecast of Production |
Actual |
Forecasts of Yields |
Actual Yield |
||||||||
|
Aug 1 |
Sept. 1 |
Oct. 1 |
Nov. 1 |
Dec. 1 |
Aug. 1 |
Sept 1 |
Oct 1 |
NOV. 1 |
Dec. 1 |
|||
|
1976 |
10,734 |
10,375 |
10,251 |
9,891 |
10,264 |
10,581 |
466 |
451 |
445 |
435 |
451 |
463 |
|
1977 |
13,535 |
13,302 |
13,317 |
13,832 |
14,496 |
14,389 |
506 |
495 |
500 |
503 |
523 |
520 |
|
1978 |
11,820 |
11,155 |
10,873 |
10,981 |
10,841 |
10,856 |
462 |
425 |
429 |
418 |
421 |
420 |
|
1979 |
13,710 |
14,245 |
14,356 |
14,544 |
14,527 |
14,629 |
497 |
525 |
5238 |
535 |
534 |
547 |
|
1980 |
12,812 |
11,689 |
11,589 |
11,224 |
11,125 |
11,122 |
461 |
421 |
419 |
408 |
411 |
404 |
|
1981 |
14,789 |
15,507 |
15,476 |
15,560 |
15,733 |
15,646 |
515 |
540 |
540 |
543 |
546 |
543 |
|
1982 |
11,143 |
11,029 |
11,365 |
11,947 |
12,102 |
11,953 |
563 |
569 |
587 |
605 |
613 |
590 |
|
1983 |
7,810 |
7,776 |
7,550 |
7,497 |
7,725 |
7,771 |
503 |
501 |
487 |
504 |
506 |
508 |
|
1984 |
12,569 |
13,276 |
13,272 |
13,271 |
13,292 |
12,982 |
583 |
615 |
620 |
613 |
610 |
600 |
|
1985 |
13,780 |
13,655 |
13,638 |
13,875 |
13,310 |
13,432 |
638 |
632 |
633 |
644 |
644 |
630 |
|
1985 |
10,676 |
10,506 |
10,006 |
9,875 |
9,792 |
|
573 |
565 |
539 |
546 |
539 |
|
1 Net Weight bales. Sourer: Crop Reporting Board, U.S.D.A.
High, Low & Closing Prices of May Cotton Futures at New York In Cents per Pound
|
Year of |
|
Year Prior of Delivery |
Delivery Year |
Life of |
|||||||||||||
|
Mar. |
Apr. |
May |
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sept. |
Oct. |
Nov. |
Dec. |
Jan. |
Feb. |
Mar. |
Apr. |
May |
|||
|
1980 |
High |
67.90 |
65.70 |
66.40 |
68.25 |
67.00 |
70.00 |
69.00 |
68.90 |
73.00 |
76.40 |
86.00 |
90.42 |
90.70 |
87.40 |
84.40 |
90.70 |
|
Low |
66.00 |
64.10 |
63.00 |
63.90 |
64.55 |
65.90 |
66.25 |
66.40 |
68.20 |
70.62 |
73.97 |
60.70 |
77.52 |
79.50 |
60.90 |
64.15 |
|
|
Close |
65.65 |
65.45 |
64.15 |
65.60 |
66.05 |
69.20 |
67.70 |
68.22 |
71.77 |
75.95 |
65.37 |
86.77 |
65.12 |
81.99 |
83.75 |
- |
|
|
1981 |
High |
80.60 |
77.60 |
78.42 |
75.00 |
85.70 |
94.50 |
96.67 |
93.50 |
93.12 |
97.67 |
96.50 |
93.70 |
89.80 |
89.20 |
85.20 |
97.67 |
|
Low |
74.50 |
74.30 |
74.92 |
72.60 |
75.50 |
81.65 |
87.00 |
83.20 |
86.70 |
88.40 |
83.35 |
86.00 |
84.75 |
83.75 |
80.65 |
71.00 |
|
|
Close |
77.00 |
75.05 |
75.00 |
74.60 |
84.80 |
93.92 |
90.40 |
90.20 |
92.08 |
95.60 |
90.90 |
90.14 |
86.12 |
64.00 |
80.45 |
- |
|
|
1982 |
High |
84.90 |
85.35 |
83.66 |
82.50 |
81.27 |
79.40 |
73.60 |
71.90 |
70.45 |
67.40 |
67.95 |
67.65 |
66.75 |
68.95 |
68.50 |
87.50 |
|
Low |
82.75 |
83.20 |
81.80 |
78.70 |
79.10 |
71.45 |
68.55 |
68.30 |
64.40 |
63.11 |
65.55 |
64.65 |
64.01 |
65.40 |
67.50 |
63.11 |
|
|
Close |
84.20 |
83.36 |
82.90 |
79.00 |
79.30 |
69.15 |
69.15 |
69.45 |
65.29 |
65.70 |
67.62 |
64.94 |
65.92 |
68.30 |
68.43 |
- |
|
|
1983 |
High |
74.65 |
76.75 |
76.50 |
77.50 |
77.50 |
74.90 |
72.15 |
69.25 |
68.15 |
68.90 |
68.40 |
71.25 |
76.42 |
75.30 |
71.60 |
77.50 |
|
Low |
73.50 |
74.20 |
73.74 |
69.45 |
74.50 |
69.50 |
66.75 |
65.80 |
65.81 |
66.20 |
66.35 |
66.26 |
70.30 |
70.25 |
69.77 |
65.80 |
|
|
Close |
74.53 |
76.40 |
73.30 |
76.60 |
74.66 |
69.90 |
67.25 |
67.42 |
66.62 |
67.41 |
67.33 |
71.20 |
75.32 |
71.08 |
71.03 |
- |
|
|
1984 |
High |
74.60 |
75.50 |
80.00 |
83.40 |
82.70 |
63.80 |
83.40 |
82.15 |
63.60 |
82.05 |
78.25 |
78.79 |
81.85 |
82.54 |
84.40 |
84.40 |
|
Low |
70.60 |
73.25 |
73.20 |
79.25 |
78.20 |
80.30 |
78.15 |
78.70 |
80.31 |
78.35 |
74.75 |
74.05 |
77.70 |
77.90 |
81.50 |
66.75 |
|
|
Close |
73.80 |
73.80 |
80.00 |
80.00 |
81.00 |
82.80 |
79.30 |
81.65 |
80.98 |
78.42 |
77.13 |
78.09 |
81.74 |
82.39 |
82.39 |
- |
|
|
1985 |
High |
81.85 |
78.00 |
79.25 |
79.15 |
75.25 |
71.80 |
69.00 |
72.05 |
71.30 |
67.66 |
68.20 |
66.85 |
68.25 |
70.45 |
68.98 |
79.25 |
|
Low |
77.70 |
75.80 |
77.45 |
75.00 |
69.60 |
63.74 |
67.60 |
67.36 |
66.45 |
66.20 |
65.70 |
63.28 |
63.26 |
64.75 |
66.10 |
63.26 |
|
|
Close |
81.74 |
78.00 |
78.60 |
75.00 |
69.75 |
69.15 |
63.00 |
69.85 |
66.95 |
66.95 |
65.76 |
64.18 |
67.60 |
66.40 |
66.33 |
- |
|
|
1986 |
High |
67.55 |
67.88 |
66.65 |
64.25 |
62.90 |
61.10 |
60.90 |
62.39 |
63.45 |
62.10 |
63.60 |
64.48 |
65.55 |
67.25 |
68.05 |
70.55 |
|
Low |
66.35 |
66.53 |
61.66 |
63.00 |
59.95 |
59.30 |
59.25 |
60.45 |
60.50 |
59.60 |
58.80 |
59.50 |
61.90 |
60.70 |
66.00 |
58.80 |
|
|
Close |
67.55 |
66.52 |
63.13 |
63.00 |
60.25 |
60.05 |
60.48 |
67.34 |
60.75 |
62.06 |
60.32 |
63.45 |
65.69 |
66.80 |
67.20 |
- |
|
|
1987 |
High |
46.70 |
41.55 |
40.55 |
37.30 |
35.25 |
38.40 |
48.90 |
50.90 |
52.96 |
59.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low |
40.50 |
38.30 |
36.70 |
33.60 |
31.56 |
32.40 |
35.44 |
45.51 |
46.35 |
52.60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Close |
41.00 |
40.70 |
36.73 |
33.93 |
34.40 |
38.40 |
47.50 |
47.00 |
52.96 |
59.25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: N.Y. Cotton Exchange
Month-End Open Interest of Cotton Futures at New York In Contracts
|
Year |
Jan. |
Feb. |
Mar. |
Apr. |
May |
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sept. |
Oct. |
Nov. |
Dec. |
|
1980 |
54,046 |
57,691 |
44,363 |
38,596 |
31,753 |
27,276 |
39,711 |
46,814 |
49,370 |
45,433 |
40,208 |
35,022 |
|
1981 |
32,078 |
34,782 |
23,652 |
24,108 |
26,793 |
27,286 |
26,009 |
30,014 |
32,121 |
31,671 |
29,137 |
26,584 |
|
1982 |
30,286 |
31,740 |
30,230 |
31,422 |
27,665 |
24,675 |
24,978 |
23,052 |
27,047 |
26,070 |
26,949 |
26,581 |
|
1983 |
29,544 |
34,165 |
36,109 |
33,990 |
35,026 |
33,651 |
31,402 |
33,961 |
31,531 |
29,272 |
30,568 |
30,758 |
|
1984 |
32,246 |
28,060 |
34,212 |
29,596 |
30,569 |
22,239 |
21,734 |
21,576 |
20,419 |
22,547 |
19,211 |
16,614 |
|
1985 |
19,790 |
17,660 |
18,678 |
14,101 |
16,461 |
15,381 |
19,386 |
20,861 |
21,011 |
22,859 |
23,196 |
21,748 |
|
1986 |
23,326 |
20,624 |
20,112 |
20,121 |
23,702 |
22,505 |
25,321 |
27,642 |
23,406 |
24,432 |
20,534 |
23,035 |
Source: N.Y. Cotton Exchange
Volume of Trading of Cotton Futures at New York In Contracts
|
Year |
Jan. |
Feb. |
Mar. |
Apr. |
May |
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sept. |
Oct. |
Nov. |
Dec. |
Total |
|
1980 |
286,058 |
278,901 |
290,133 |
206,682 |
191,067 |
128,393 |
175,619 |
188,542 |
224,323 |
186,615 |
173,061 |
173,133 |
2,523,447 |
|
1981 |
156,303 |
166,292 |
150,297 |
117,653 |
90,157 |
117,249 |
99,175 |
95,312 |
96,956 |
120,301 |
115,833 |
89,985 |
1,415,213 |
|
1982 |
100,242 |
104,444 |
103,697 |
106,692 |
95,597 |
151,068 |
116,211 |
99,674 |
101,119 |
94,265 |
98,597 |
63,988 |
1,255,202 |
|
1983 |
97,947 |
123,620 |
139,032 |
132,447 |
139,953 |
153,932 |
143,116 |
156,650 |
121,972 |
113,759 |
137,472 |
90,187 |
1,550,117 |
|
1984 |
124,735 |
133,891 |
127,448 |
126,780 |
139,988 |
111,050 |
71,522 |
51,941 |
39,519 |
63,631 |
66,729 |
39,907 |
1,137,141 |
|
1985 |
61,560 |
57,034 |
61,931 |
65,709 |
47,606 |
47,604 |
41,069 |
40,524 |
42,747 |
55,046 |
63,829 |
51,543 |
636,492 |
|
1986 |
73,576 |
77,152 |
57,433 |
74,520 |
54,479 |
64,742 |
75,545 |
94,025 |
130,989 |
111,356 |
113,812 |
54,618 |
1,015,250 |
Source: N.Y. Cotton Exchange
|
This is the third of four texts on marketing and agribusiness prepared by an FAO project for use in universities and colleges, in specialist courses for students or in short courses given to industry staff. This text, Global agricultural marketing management, introduces the concepts associated with global marketing, highlighting the importance of understanding the economic, cultural, legal and political environment in planning and undertaking global marketing. Techniques for carrying out global marketing research and defining competition and market entry strategies are presented. Product pricing, promotion and distribution issues are reviewed, and logistics and control aspects of global marketing are presented. This text should be of use to all involved in planning or undertaking global marketing in the corporate sector as well as to educational and training institutions preparing people to engage in export marketing. |
