Annual sawn wood consumption per 1000 person in 1993 was estimated to the 31 m3. The sawn wood demand is projected to grow from .567 million m3 to 0.889 million m3. in 2020. This corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 2%. The annual demand projections up to year 2020 is given in the table 21.
Table 21 - Projected annual sawn wood demand in 1995-2020 (million m3)
Year |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
Demand |
0.567 |
0.626 |
0.688 |
0.753 |
0.82 |
0.889 |
The consumption of plywood and wood based panels as a whole is low by international comparison. The annual consumption projections are shown in table 22.
Table 22 - Projected demand for wood based panels 1995-2020 (m3)
Year |
Plywood Demand |
Fibre board Demand |
Particle board Demand |
Total Panels Demand |
1995 |
30,000 |
3,000 |
1,900 |
34,900 |
2000 |
34,000 |
4,000 |
3,500 |
41,500 |
2005 |
39,000 |
6,000 |
3,300 |
48,300 |
2010 |
45,000 |
9,000 |
4,300 |
58,300 |
2015 |
52,000 |
12,000 |
5,500 |
69,500 |
2020 |
59,000 |
16,000 |
7,000 |
82,000 |
Average Annual Increase |
2.8% |
7.1% |
5.3% |
3.5% |
Per capita consumption of paper is very low by international standards. In 1993 paper consumption per capita was 7.3 kg. The demand for paper and paper board is projected to reach about 470,000 t per year in 2020 compared with 130,000 t in 1993. The annual projection up to the year 2020 are given in the table 23.
Table 23 -Projection of Annual consumption of paper and other related products
Year |
Newsprint |
Printing and writing |
Industrial Grades |
Boards |
Others |
Total |
Imports |
1995 |
25 |
34 |
56 |
28 |
2 |
145 |
116 |
2000 |
29 |
41 |
35 |
34 |
3 |
182 |
154 |
2005 |
33 |
49 |
97 |
39 |
4 |
223 |
194 |
2010 |
37 |
58 |
126 |
58 |
6 |
272 |
244 |
2015 |
41 |
69 |
162 |
53 |
9 |
333 |
304 |
2020 |
45 |
81 |
207 |
61 |
12 |
407 |
378 |
Average Annual Increase1 |
2.4% |
3.5% |
5.3% |
3.1% |
7.5% |
4.2% |
4.8% |
It is seen from the above projection that major part of the paper and paper board demand will be met by imports.
Projected demand for poles and posts which will be used for electricity lines, telephone lines, construction and fencing are given in the table 24.
Table 24 - Projected poles requirements in 1995-2020 (million m3)
Year |
Wood Poles |
Bamboo Poles |
Total Poles |
1995 |
0.390 |
0.077 |
0.467 |
2000 |
0.411 |
0.081 |
0.492 |
2005 |
0.432 |
0.085 |
0.517 |
2010 |
0.453 |
0.085 |
0.538 |
2015 |
0.471 |
0.085 |
0.556 |
2020 |
0.486 |
0.085 |
0.571 |
Average Annual Increase1 |
0.9% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
The demand for biomass fuel is given in table 25 while table 26 gives the roundwood requirements to produce the above products.
Table 25 - Demand for bioenergy in 1995-2020 (million m3)
Year |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
Average annual increase1 |
Biomass Energy |
0.567 |
0.626 |
0.688 |
0.753 |
0.820 |
0.889 |
1.8% |
Table 26 - Projected round wood requirement ('000m3)
Year |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
Average annual increase1 |
Industrial Wood |
1,345.8 |
1,410.2 |
1,466.3 |
1,577.9 |
1,578.5 |
1,476.1 |
0.4% |
Poles and Posts |
390.0 |
411.0 |
432.0 |
453.0 |
471.0 |
486.0 |
0.9% |
Total |
1,735.8 |
1,821.2 |
1,898.3 |
2,030.9 |
2,049.5 |
2,062.1 |
0.6% |
According to a study done during the Forestry Master Plan preparation even under the current trends the increasing wood demand can be met by local supply. However it will result in unsustainable utilization of the natural forests. Thus the projection is that the import will increase by about 1% annually. However, with the projected development under the planned activities of the Forestry Sector Master Plan, it is projected that the sustainable supply of wood will increase and a surplus of wood is projected after year 2005.
The emerging picture of the forestry situation in Sri Lanka is not bright. The continuation of current trends will increase the pressure on forest resources. The expanding population base and economic growth will increase the demand for timber products and it is projected that the natural dense forest cover would decline from 23.9% in 1993 to around 17% by 2020, if the present trends are continued.
The pressure placed upon forests of Sri Lanka is immense. Industry wants to produce sawn wood and other forest products, rural people need fuelwood to meet their energy requirements, the growing population requires land to produce additional food and environmentalists and other concerned people want to preserve the remaining natural forests intact. Forestry professionals and other government officials are facing a multitude of problems and responsibilities with too few resources to address them adequately. The forestry and land use administrators with the limited manpower and financial resources have done a lot to manage the land and the forest under their control. However, despite some positive developments, the challenges faced have been overwhelming and the responses to the major problems have fallen short.
Due to the scope and the complexity of the problems, the time needed for changing people's values and perceptions and the special long-term nature of forestry, it is apparent that all the problems cannot be solved quickly. Thus the planning has to be long, at least 20-25 years. New policies have to be introduced, old ones modified and policy strategies have to be formulated, legislative and administrative reforms need to be done to implement the approved policies. The newly formulated Forestry Sector Master Plan provides a guiding framework for carrying out these activities in a systematic and holistic manner and come out with various development activities as described below:
· In the context of the conservation of biodiversity development, major objective will be the creation of a protected area network fully representative of forest eco systems, communities and species for the purpose of the conservation of biodiversity. It is also envisaged that these protected areas are managed in such a way that benefits from protection also flow to the local people. The development of a knowledge base regarding current distribution and status of biodiversity, its values and traditional uses for better conservation planning and management is also intended.
· The designated areas for multiple uses will be managed productively wherever possible on a joint basis with the rural people in order to obtain product and services that the society need. It is also envisaged that proper management will contribute substantially to the living standards of rural people through the development of rural based industries.
· The home gardens which has a crucial role at present in the supply of roundwood and fuelwood will be made more productive and managed sustainably by the rural people yielding a sustainable supply of products and services that the society needs. It is also envisaged that trees will be optimally incorporated in various forest farming systems and more trees will contribute substantially to raising the incomes and the living standards of the people. Wood production aspects will be integrated in research and extension activities dealing with non forest wood supply sources such as rubber and coconut.
· As the supply of timber from natural forest will be restricted in near future, the commercial plantations will be one of the major sources of timber supply. Thus non government sector will be involved actively, in commercial forestry plantation development through lease hold forestry on government land and tree growing on the private land. In addition already established plantations will be brought under scientific management in order to produce wood in an economically efficient and environmental friendly manner. Proper incentive scheme and a technical support scheme will be developed for the promotion of this component.
· The overall development objective of the non wood forestry sector is to realize the full potential of forests through multiple use so as to generate and maximize sustainable benefits to the present generation while preserving the resources base for the future generation. The resource base will be conserved both in-situ and ex-situ in order to provide non wood forests products sustainably mainly for the benefit of local people and rural industry. The non wood forest products will be produced increasingly by way of domestication and cultivation. Rural industries based on non wood forest products from sustainable sources and efficient non wasteful production will be established. Required support services will be established in order to develop and adopt better processing, grading and quality control techniques, to minimize waste, to assure a fair income to the rural people who are engaged in the collection, production, and processing of non wood forest products.
· A well planned human resource development programme will be developed to create an adequate number of motivated trained and capable forestry partners engaging in all kinds of forestry activities. In order to achieve this, it is proposed to build up high quality educational and training institutions and an efficient extension and delivery of support services to effectively provide for the proper motivation, guidance, information and other support to the different forestry partners.
· Research programmes will be initiated to provide information needed by the people of Sri Lanka to protect, conserve and manage their tree and forest resources for the well being of the present and future generations. Research findings will be conveyed to the end users in a timely manner and in a language and form easily understandable, applicable and adoptable as appropriate to specific circumstances.
List of Working Papers already released
APFSOS/WP/01 Regional Study - The South Pacific
APFSOS/WP/02 Pacific Rim Demand and Supply Situation, Trends and Prospects: Implications for Forest Products Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region
APFSOS/WP/03 The Implications of the GATT Uruguay Round and other Trade Arrangements for the Asia-Pacific Forest Products Trade
APFSOS/WP/04 Status, Trends and Future Scenarios for Forest Conservation including Protected Areas in the Asia-Pacific Region
APFSOS/WP/05 In-Depth Country Study New Zealand
APFSOS/WP/06 In-Depth Country Study Republic of Korea
APFSOS/WP/07 Country Report - Malaysia
APFSOS/WP/08 Country Report - Union of Myanmar
APFSOS/WP/09 Challenges and Opportunities: Policy options for the forestry sector in the Asia-Pacific Region
APFSOS/WP/10 Sources of Non-wood Fibre for Paper, Board and Panels Production: Status, Trends and Prospects for India
APFSOS/WP/11 Country Report - Pakistan
APFSOS/WP/12 Trends and Outlook for Forest Products Consumption, Production and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region
APFSOS/WP/13 Country Report - Australia
APFSOS/WP/14 Country Report - China
APFSOS/WP/15 Country Report - Japan: Basic Plan on Forest Resources and Long-Term Perspective on Demand and Supply of Important Forestry Products
APFSOS/WP/16 Country Report - Sri Lanka
1 % change rates estimated by editor.
