It is apparent from the data reviewed above that Cambodia's return to peace and stability has brought accelerating demands on the forest resource. While it is impossible to predict with certainty, it is useful to consider how an extension of recent trends in land use and demand for wood will shape the country's environment over the next decade. For illustrative purposes three scenarios were modelled to extend the latest data to 2010:
Scenario 1: the deforestation process will continue even in the protected areas because of "non-intervention": in that case the destruction of the forest will increase to the same rate as the sub-region with a loss of 1 percent per year. The coastal and flooded ecosystems will practically disappear. In this scenario, total deforestation would be 1.900.000 hectares from 1993 to 2010, i.e. 110.000 hectares per year.
Scenario 2: the Cambodian authorities would effectively implement their new national protected areas regulations. The whole edaphic forest would be protected and also some areas of evergreen and deciduous forests. In other areas, deforestation would proceed at a rate of 1 percent per year (twice the average rate of deforestation observed in Cambodia during the last 20 years and equal to the sub-region rate). In this scenario, the total deforestation would he 1,300.000 hectares from 1993 to 2010, i.e. 77.000 hectares per year.
Scenario 3: With a very strong policy, the Cambodian authorities would be able to preserve the protected area and maintain the deforestation at the present rate of 0.5 percent per year in the non-protected areas which corresponds to the needs of agricultural development. In this scenario, the total deforestation would be 650,000 hectares from 1993 to 2010, i.e. 38,000 hectares per year.
Given the present situation. Scenario 1 appears to he the most realistic however Scenario 2 could become a real possibility, if the different authorities in charge of the forestry sector join their efforts to reinforce the operational capacities of the technical staff and if the local authorities and the population are associated for the sustainable management and conservation of the forests.
