The wood-based panel industry is an important component of the wood processing industry in China which is one of the world's major consumer and importer of forest products. Development of the wood-based panel market in China will not only produce direct impact on the market demand and supply of other forest products in China but also have influence on the pricing trend in the world's wood-based panel market, the plywood market in particular. This study employs groups of data to analyze the status quo of market demand and supply of various wood-based panel products in China in the early 1990s, and applies principles of mathematical statistics to undertake qualitative outlook analysis, quantitative status analysis and simulated projection for the trend of demand and supply in China's wood-based panel market in the coming 15 years (up until 2010). Findings of this study shall not only produce direct guiding significance for the development of China's wood-based panel industry, have important referential value for China's forestry planning sector to formulate related development plans, but also provide a useful reference material for the relevant international organizations to make analysis and projection of the wood-based panel market and the forest products market in the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.
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Editor's Note This document is the second of a two-part working paper of which document APFSOS/WP/41(a) is titled "Review of Wood-based Panels Production, Consumption and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region, 1990 to 2000" by Michael J. Lyons. That companion document covers the whole region, including China. There are three main points to treat with caution in using this volume focused on China: (a) the abrupt jump in output between 1994 and 1995 reflects a wider range of enterprises included in statistics rather than real increase in output or capacity (see section 3.1); (b) the time series used in the regressions are so short as to be of limited validity for extrapolation; and (c) the historical high dominance of plywood in product mix may be difficult to sustain in future due to raw material constraints. The editor feels that the historical numbers given here are very valuable even if they may be inadequate as a guide to future consumption patterns. (Editor). |
