FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/99 - ARMENIA* (25 May)
Official reports indicate that wheat area for harvest in 1999 was reduced to 86 000 hectares. Below-normal autumn and winter precipitation adversely affected potential yields and the 1999 grain production is likely to remain low. Currently it is estimated that the 1999 grain harvest could fall below 300 000 tonnes compared to 326 000 tonnes last year.
Against an estimated cereal import requirement of nearly 345 000 tonnes in 1998/99, food aid pledges of just over 18 000 tonnes have been reported to date. The balance is expected to be imported commercially, despite the devaluation of the dram, mostly from neighbouring countries. Agricultural output is increasing but growth remains constrained by purchasing power and structural problems in the sector. These include small size of farms, infrastructure unsuited to small- scale private farming and limited credit. Positive economic growth is also expected in 1999, despite the adverse effects of the crisis in the Russian Federation on trade, employment and remittances. Remittances from abroad are a major element of household budgets.
There is little scope at present for phasing out humanitarian assistance and WFP will continue to provide food assistance for relief and recovery to refugees and the most vulnerable amongst the local population. Assistance will focus on community based food-for-work activities for vulnerable groups who are able to work, supporting economic and social development. Limited general food distribution will improve nutrition for the most vulnerable. The programme will have a duration of three years and will be reviewed annually.
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