FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/99 - AZERBAIJAN (25 May)
The early outlook for 1999 grain production is satisfactory. Recent heavy rains caused some localized damage but have improved moisture reserves after a dry winter. Ongoing land privatization and dismemberment of State farms has led to an increase in food production (notably potatoes and animal products) at the expense of cash crops. In part, this reflects increased employment in agriculture, greater emphasis on rural household food security following liberalization of grain trade, but also the lack of viable marketing channels for produce. Some increase in output of basic foodstuffs is likely to continue. Assessing food production in the current transition remain difficult. However, 1999 grain production is tentatively forecast to remain similar to last year's level of 1 million tonnes.
The bulk of 1998/99 cereal import requirement, estimated at about 500 000 tonnes, will be imported commercially. Food aid deliveries, for vulnerable groups, amount to 16 000 tonnes of grain. Despite the negative impact of the Russian crisis (one quarter of Azerbaijan exports formerly went to the Federation) and slowdown in the oil industry, GDP growth is expected to remain positive in 1999. Nevertheless, parts of the population, including 12 percent which were displaced due to the dispute over Nagorno Karabakh, remain vulnerable and continue to require humanitarian assistance. WFP will continue its current programme in support of the most vulnerable IDPs, while income generation activities will be expanded. The programme will be reviewed annually and has a tentative duration of three to five years.
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