Harvest of 1999 second (B) season foodcrops is underway. Prospects are unfavourable as rains started one month late and ceased earlier than normal. Beans in highland areas were particularly affected. Frosts in March and armyworms in parts, particularly in the north, also negatively affected maize yields.
As a result, production is anticipated to decline compared to last year�s B season. Bean production is expected to decline by a quarter. Since most of the annual cereal and beans production is obtained in this season, the supply of grains is anticipated to be tight in the second half of the year. The 1999 A season crops, harvested earlier, was also reduced by dry weather.
Planting of 1999 long-cycle cereal crops is underway in the central highlands and south-western lowlands. The main rains are expected in July/August. Spring rains from March to May were reported to have been erratic and inadequate. Despite the good harvest in 1998, the food situation is very tight for people in border areas of Gash-Barka and Debub affected by the war with Ethiopia. Under an Emergency Operation recently approved by FAO and WFP, international food assistance will be provided to 268 000 people most affected by the war, including 246 500 displaced and 21 500 deportees from Ethiopia, for a period of nine months.
Prospects for the 1999 Belg crop, now being harvested, are unfavourable, due to below-normal rains. Although Belg production accounts for only 7 percent of total cereal production, it is important in several areas where it provides the bulk of annual food supplies. The 1998 Meher harvest was satisfactory. However, several areas failed to produce enough and are in need of food assistance. With the anticipated reduction in Belg production, the magnitude of food shortages has increased in terms of numbers and areas affected. The worst hit area is the north-western Amhara Region, where some 2 million people face severe food shortages. The Government has recently appealed for 360 000 tonnes of food aid for an estimated 4.6 million vulnerable people, including those affected by the failure of the belg season, as well as 385 000 internally displaced people due to the ongoing conflict with Eritrea.
Despite some beneficial rains in recent months, southern and eastern pastoral areas are yet to recover from consecutive years of drought and the severe shortages of water. The recent lifting of the ban on livestock imports from the Horn by Saudi Arabia is expected to increase incomes in pastoral areas. An Emergency Operation for food assistance to 1.2 million people, worth some US$40.5 million was jointly approved by FAO and WFP on 31 May 1999. Against total food aid requirement of 551 271 tonnes food aid, pledges as of June 1999 amounted to about 360 000 tonnes, of which 195 000 tonnes have been delivered.
Planting of the 1999 Meher (main season) cereal crops is underway. Early prospects are not promising, as inadequate rains in much of Oromiya and southern Amhara Region have delayed land preparation and planting of long-cycle crops. Furthermore, the Government is reported to have treated about 350 000 hectares of army worm infestations, but the impact on crops is not yet known
Planting of 1999 main season cereal crops is complete. Although area planted is similar to 1998, official projections indicate 10 percent reduction in maize output due to scarcity of agricultural inputs, a shortage of cash to buy increasingly expensive inputs, and erratic rains at planting. Erratic rainfall and dry spells also increased armyworm infestation which may further reduce yields.
Despite a satisfactory food supply situation overall, following a good 1998 main season cereal crop, the food situation remains difficult in areas affected by the failure of the short rains. Although the short rains accounts for only 15 percent of national production, it is the main crop in Eastern, Nyanza, Coast and parts of Central Province. Rainfall for this season has been insufficient to ensure that pastures and water supplies last until the next rains in October. Severe food shortages have been reported, particularly from Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Maragua, Thika and Nyeri districts in Central Provinces, as well as from several locations in Eastern Province. The situation is likely to deteriorate in the coming months with the depletion of food stocks. Food aid is urgently needed for the affected population.
Harvest of the 1999 second season foodcrops is underway. The outlook is uncertain. A delay in the start of the rainy season was followed by abundant and well distributed precipitation in March. However, rains were below average in April and ceased early than normal, particularly in eastern parts. As a result, yield reductions are anticipated in several areas. The negative impact on cereal crops of armyworms attacks this season, was limited by control measures undertaken by the Government with the assistance of FAO and donors. The overall impact of the irregular rains on this season�s production is currently being assessed by an FAO/WFP/Ministry of Agriculture Crop Assessment Mission at local level.
In Northwestern prefectures, a relative improvement in security conditions has allowed agricultural activities this season together with better access of about 600 000 displaced people to food assistance. However, shortages of pipeline food aid restricted distributions in May and June. In the absence of additional contributions, operations will cease by the end of July.
The outlook for the 1999 main �Gu� cereal crop, accounting for some 80 percent of annual production in normal years, is unfavourable. The area of maize and sorghum is expected to decline as a result of delayed and erratic rains since the beginning of the season, coupled with unusually high temperatures that resulted in the wilting of crops. Water levels in the Shabelle River are also reported to be below normal, reflecting below-average precipitation. In addition, armyworm infestations have been reported in Lower and Middle Juba, Lower Shebelle, Bakool and Hiran regions. Insecurity in parts has also disrupted planting.
In the North-west, scattered showers in March were followed by light rains in April which improved pastures, water supplies and livestock conditions. However, the rains did not provide enough moisture for crops to develop. A joint mission by FAO and the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) in May estimated the area of cereals planted at 5 000 hectares, about 30 percent below last year. In North-eastern parts, rains in April improved pastures.
The already difficult food supply situation is anticipated to deteriorate in coming months, with population movements accelerated by renewed fighting around the town of Baidoa. Current estimates indicate that some 70 000 people have been displaced by food shortages and insecurity. A WFP relief food shipment of 5 000 tonnes of maize, to be distributed over the next four months for 500 000 people in southern Somalia, arrived in early June.
Saudi Arabia formally lifted a livestock import ban, imposed early last year on the Horn countries, on 25 May 1999. This is expected to bring much needed relief to livestock producers. Local markets in the Northwest and Northeast are reported to have responded immediately with an increase in livestock prices and activity.
A reduced 1999 Gu cereal crop would be the seventh bad harvest in succession. This would compound an already precarious food supply situation.
Planting of 1999 main season cereal crops has started. Early prospects are favourable due to heavy rains during April and May. Pasture conditions are reported to be satisfactory in most regions, especially in the Upper Nile which was flooded last year.
The output of the recently harvested 1998/1999 wheat crop is provisionally estimated at 165 000 tonnes, about 70 percent below both last year�s crop and the average for the last five years. A reduction of nearly 42 percent in the area planted due to high input costs and low prices of imported wheat and wheat flour, coupled with late sowing and high temperatures are the main reasons for the drop.
Food shortages are reported in a number of locations in southern parts of the country. Intensified civil conflict earlier in the year, particularly in Bahr El Ghazal, and a recent influx of returnees, which coincided with the lean period for local residents, has aggravated an already precarious food situation. WFP reduced distributions for three months from June due to insufficient donor funding.
Harvesting of cereal crops has begun in unimodal central and western regions, while in the grain-basket southern highlands, harvesting is expected to start in August. An average level of production is anticipated for most parts except for the food insecure central regions, where below- average production is expected mainly due to moisture stress earlier in the season.
In bi-modal northern areas, rains favoured second-season Masika crops planted in March. However, an outbreak of armyworms in several regions damaged thousands of hectares. Pastures and livestock are reported to be in good condition.
The food supply situation has improved with the harvest, mainly in Dodoma and Singida Regions, where many households were receiving relief since October 1998. Food prices have declined since April with the harvest and commercial sale of Government imports.
Prospects for the 1999 main season cereal crops are generally favorable. Crops stressed by a long dry spell in April in western parts recovered, as rainfall improved in May. Northern and north-eastern Uganda, where the season starts later, have received well-distributed rainfall since early April. The rains also improved pasture and livestock conditions in pastoral areas in the north-east.
Recent official reports indicate that the late start to the rainy season in March, along with dry conditions in parts of southern Uganda in April, provided favourable conditions for armyworm infestation in several districts. Control measures have been undertaken and only modest crop losses are reported.
The overall food situation is satisfactory. However, severe food difficulties persist in Rakai District, in the south- west, where a succession of poor harvests has depleted farm stocks. Food aid has relieved the situation somewhat but an estimated 30 000 people are still suffering acute food shortages. Food difficulties also persist in northern areas, where 400 000 people remain displaced by persistent insurgency. International food aid is being provided.
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