FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/99 - INDONESIA* (2 June)
In western Java, rainfall in April/May increased moisture supplies for second-season crops, whilst mostly dry weather favoured fieldwork in eastern Java. Early weather indications and some recovery in the economy, suggest improved prospects for rice production in 1999, compared to last year, which is likely to result in some increase in the area of rice planted. In addition, reflecting investment and improvement of irrigation facilities, supported by the Government drive toward improved provision of credit and inputs, an increase in yields is also expected
The official projection for 1999 paddy production stands at 48.7 million tonnes, similar to the final estimate of 48.5 million tonnes for 1998. Based on the forecast, the rice import requirement for the 1999/2000 marketing year (April- March), is estimated at around 3.1 million tonnes. In addition to rice, some 3.3 million tonnes of wheat will be required in the current marketing year. With the downturn in the economy, the demand for relatively expensive wheat based products, especially in the fast-food sector, has fallen due to reduced incomes. Taking opening stocks and pledged bilateral wheat assistance into account, the uncovered import requirement for wheat in 1999/2000 is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes. In mid-May, the National Food Logistics Agency, BULOG, announced plans to sell some 500 000 tonnes of wheat in stock plus sugar and soybeans into the open market. Previously BULOG, was responsible for several commodities, including wheat and sugar, but now only has responsibility for rice. With increased liberalization, flour mills are now able to import wheat directly instead of purchasing through BULOG and part of the problem of large stocks with the agency were its issue price which was un-competitive. BULOG is expected to procure between 1.5 to 2 million tonnes of rice from farmers this year.
Although the economic crisis has mainly affected food security in urban areas, through job losses and declining household incomes and access to food, the problem is spreading to rural areas, with increasing migration. In some rural areas, the population has risen substantially, putting severe pressure on services, increasing competition for jobs and depressing wages. Moreover, as most migrants are landless and have few savings or assets, their susceptibility to food shortages is becoming more pronounced. Notwithstanding the rise in rural poverty, the nutritional situation of the unemployed urban poor still gives most cause for concern. In these areas, despite prospects of modest recovery this year, large segments of the population remain severely exposed to food insecurity, as their ability to cope has been heavily eroded. Studies indicate growing nutritional deficiencies, particularly amongst at-risk groups such as children and expectant and lactating mothers.
International and bilateral food assistance to the country, has undoubtedly helped reduce the impact of the economic crisis on poor household. However, the solution to long term food insecurity lies in economic recovery and support to national and international measures to stimulate agricultural and economic recovery are also viewed as being essential.
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