FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 06/99 - KAZAKHSTAN (25 June)
The 1999 crop year is expected to be difficult in spite of some recovery expected in the 1999 grain and pulse harvest compared to last year's 7.3 million tonnes. Good precipitation this winter increased soil moisture reserves after last year's drought, but economic problems intensified. Planting of major spring grain crop is well underway but heavy rains hindered progress in some areas. In contrast, May has been relatively dry in the northwest and newly planted crops urgently need more rain. The shortage of working capital on farm for essential inputs has been exacerbated by the depreciation of the tenge following flotation. Farm credit is even scarcer than last year. For the 80 percent of farms which are in debt, - and whose bank earnings are impounded - barter is the only means of obtaining necessary inputs. However, farmers' ability to barter inputs has been affected by the poor harvest last year. The debt overhang, the shortage of working capital and shortages of fertilizer, machinery and agricultural chemicals are expected to result in a further reduction in area sown and crop yields. The area sown to winter grains declined by 12 percent to 0.7 million hectares. Latest official forecasts indicate that the aggregate area to be sown to grains for harvest in 1999 is likely to fall to about 11 million hectares, including 9 million hectares of wheat. Given normal weather, however, average yields could recover from last year's poor level and the 1999 grain harvest is tentatively forecast to recover to 9.5 million tonnes.
Low oil prices and the impact of the Russian economic crisis have led to a contraction of the economy in 1998 and in 1999. In the first nine months of the current marketing year, 1.8 million tonnes of grains including wheat was exported. Following the devaluation of the tenge, exports have become more competitive and imports less attractive. Indications are that recently imposed duties of 200 percent on food imports from neighbouring countries will be removed.
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