Production of the 1999 winter crops being harvested is estimated at about 4.4 million tonnes, some 44 percent above last year and 86 percent above average. Favourable conditions boosted yields, resulting in a 40 percent increase in wheat output while barley output is forecast to increase by 500 000 tonnes from 1998, to 1.5 million tonnes.
As a consequence of the increase in production, imports of cereals, mostly wheat, are forecast at about 4.9 million tonnes in 1999/2000 (July/June).
Early indications for the 1999 cereal crop point to an above- average output of some 18 million tonnes, some 4 percent above last year. Wheat output is expected to increase by about 4 percent while the maize crop is expected to be similar to last year�s 6 million tonnes. Planting of the 1999 paddy crop is underway. Normal weather conditions have prevailed so far but the final area planted during the season will depend on the availability of irrigation water for rice production.
Imports of wheat in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at 7.2 million tonnes and coarse grain imports, mostly maize, at 3 million tonnes.
Aggregate 1999 cereal output is forecast to drop sharply as a result of inadequate rainfall and reduced plantings. Reports of reduced sales of quality seeds and fertilizers also suggest that yields will be lower. The wheat crop is tentatively forecast at about 2.1 million tonnes, some 50 percent below 1998 and similar to the drought-reduced level of 1997. The winter barley crop, which was also affected by drought, is forecast to be 27 percent lower than the 1998 level of about 2 million tonnes. Maize harvest is expected to be similar to the 200 000 tonnes harvested in 1998.
Imports of wheat in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at 2.7 million tonnes while coarse grain imports are projected at 1.5 million tonnes.
The aggregate output of the 1999 cereals is forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, some 2 percent higher than last year. Wheat production is forecast to decline by some 8 percent compared to the previous year. In contrast, barley output is expected to rise from 303 000 tonnes to about 455 000 tonnes, due to favourable conditions.
Imports of cereals in 1999/2000 (July/June), mostly wheat, maize and barley are forecast at some 1.6 million tonnes.
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